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Bloomberg: Nigerian Economic Policy Dispute Hinders Chances of Recovery

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A dispute between Nigeria’s monetary and fiscal policy makers over how to lift the economy out of its worst slump in more than two decades may delay a recovery in Africa’s most populous country, Bloomberg said in a report.

Godwin Emefiele, Central bank Governor, in earlier in this month ignored calls by Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun to cut borrowing costs and kept the key interest rate unchanged at 14 percent, hours after she said in a television interview looser policy is necessary to stimulate the economy.

Emefiele also called out the government for its inadequate efforts to boost growth, saying monetary policy alone can’t get the economy out of stagflation and that “complementary fiscal policies” are needed to resuscitate output and consumption. GDP contracted in the first half of the year as the effects of a 15-month currency peg, fuel and power shortages and lower oil prices and production weighed on output.

The economy is forecast to shrink this year for the first time since 1991.

The delayed approval of a 6.1 trillion-naira ($19.3 billion) budget has stalled the government’s efforts to stimulate economic activity and the naira’ s slump since the removal of the 197-199 per dollar peg on June 20 has fueled inflation to the highest in more than a decade, extending the decline in consumer spending.

“The problem is that neither the government nor the Central Bank have a ‘grand strategy’ to fix Nigeria’s economic woes,” Malte Liewerscheidt, an Africa analyst at consultant VeriskMaplecroft, said in an e-mailed response to questions. “What we have seen over the past 18 months are mostly short-sighted tactical responses to ever more pressing problems.”

Inflation at 17.6 percent and a currency that weakened about 40 percent against the dollar since June, coupled with an economy forecast by the IMF to contract by 1.8 percent, underline the policy dilemma.

Adeosun said the nature of inflation is not being driven by consumer demand as it is “cost-push” and won’t respond to interest-rate increases, while Emefiele said the tightening stance has helped to lure more than $1 billion in net portfolio inflows. Cheaper borrowing would fuel demand for goods the economy can’t produce due to a lack of action to boost industrial output and increase price growth, he said.

This sort of divergence between fiscal and monetary authorities “tend to be pronounced when there are no clear best options available to policy makers,” Manji Cheto, senior vice president at Teneo Intelligence in London, said by email.

“Ultimately, the fiscal authority will have to realize that the heavy lifting will have to come from its own end.” The difference in policy approaches between the government and the central bank is not new.

President Muhammadu Buhari opposed the devaluation of the naira for more than a year, saying it would fuel inflation and hurt ordinary Nigerians. A shortage of foreign currency which led to rapid price growth and a slump in output eventually forced the central bank to move to a free float.

 Lowering the monetary policy rate “will further fuel inflation and you will reduce the yield on fixed income at a time you want to attract foreign exchange,” former central bank Governor Muhammadu Sanusi II said in a speech on Sept. 21.

“The immediate oxygen that this economy needs is foreign exchange coming into the economy and foreign investors are responsible for that.”

The government will spend its way out of a recession, Adeosun said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC Africa on Sept. 19. Half of the planned 1.9 trillion naira of debt to help fund the fiscal gap, which widened by 30 percent this year, would come from the domestic debt market and the remainder from external sources, according to budget documents.

Higher borrowing costs and the loss of almost half of the revenue projected for this year could push Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio above the projected 35 percent of GDP, according to documents from the budget and national planning ministry. The nation will finalize a $1 billion loan from the African Development Bank next month and may borrow more than $4 billion over the next two years to shore up its budget, according to the lender.

“The misalignment between monetary and fiscal policy will remain in the short term,” Pabina Yinkere, Lagos-based head of research at Vetiva Capital Management Ltd., said by phone. “By March, when inflationary pressures reduce, the Central Bank will have room to reduce interest rates and we will see monetary and fiscal policy get aligned.”

 

 


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E-Financial

Banks Lose N10Bn to Cyber Fraud in 2023’

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Stakeholders in the banking and financial ecosystem, yesterday, decried the surge in cyber fraud as Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) lost N10 billion in the second quarter of 2023, representing almost 300 per cent year-on-year compared to the previous year.

Banks Lose N10Bn to Cyber Fraud in 2023’

At a Mastercard forum convened to tackle fraud and cybersecurity threats in the financial sector, Kari Tukur, vice president, Customer Solutions Centre, East and West Africa at Mastercard, said despite the massive awareness and innovations aimed at combating cybersecurity, the amount lost last year by DBMs was “staggering”.

She said, “With Nigeria’s rapidly growing economic expansion, we are starting to see an increase in the adoption of digital financial services, and the financial landscape is also evolving at an astronomical speed.

“What was staggering for me was in spite of the huge investment around innovation, funding in the cyber space, DBMs lost almost N10bn in Q2 last year, and that was almost 300 per cent growth year-on-year when compared to the previous year.”

She noted that there was the need for collaboration among stakeholders “to combat this rising sophistication of cyber security threat.”

Tukur further stated that Mastercard was deeply committed to cyber security and fraud prevention within the payment industry, disclosing that the company invested $250m “to assist small businesses in addressing their cyber security needs.”

She disclosed that Mastercard payment portals incorporated multiple layers of security such as tokenisation technology, encryption and biometrical to stay ahead of cyber attackers.

She added that, “The sector continues to struggle with the aforementioned challenges, necessitating vigilance, proactive action and comprehensive security strategy, and Mastercard remains committed to providing safe, secure and seamless payment services and experiences for our partners and customers in Nigeria and beyond.”

Celestina Appeal, chairman, Committee of e-Business Industry Heads (CeBIH), stated that the total loss to the banking industry in the last couple of years totalled hundreds of billions of naira while Nigeria’s Consumer Awareness and Financial Enlightenment Initiative had projected a $6trn loss by 2030 to cybercrime within and outside Nigeria.

Represented by Mr Temitope Onibaniyi, secretary of the committee, she stated that the committee was ever-willing to collaborate with industry stakeholders to fight against the perpetrators who “constantly rob banks and other stakeholders in the payments industry of their hard-earned money.”

She said the need for collaboration could not be overemphasised as no individual organisation was immune to cyber security attacks.

 

 


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Tinubu Rejigs SEC Board, Makes New Appointments

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President Bola Tinubu has approved the appointment of some Nigerian professionals to the Board of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Tinubu Rejigs SEC Board, Makes New Appointments

This is contained in a statement issued by Ajuri Ngelale, special adviser to the President on Media and Publicity.

Tinubu appointed Mr. Mairiga Aliyu Katuka  as the Chairman of the board of SEC, while Mr. Emomotimi Agama has been appointed as the  Director-General of the board.

The president also appointed Frana Chukwuogor  as Executive Commissioner (Legal and Enforcement) of the board.

Tinubu further appointed Mr. Bola Ajomale as the Executive Commissioner (Operations) of the board, while Mrs. Samiya Hassan Usman is the Executive Commissioner (Corporate Services) of the board.

Also appointed into the board are Mr. Lekan Belo as Non-Executive Commissioner and Mr. Kasimu Garba Kurfi as Non-Executive Commissioner.

According to Ngelale, the president anticipated that “all members of the Board of this critical commission will bring to bear their wealth of experience and competence in advancing the commission’s core mandate of developing and regulating a capital market that is dynamic, fair, transparent, and efficient, to bolster investor confidence and contribute immeasurably to the nation’s economic development.”


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Ecobank Repays $500m Eurobond

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Ecobank has announced the successful repayment of its $500 million five-year Eurobond issued in 2019. According to a statement filed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), the Eurobond garnered considerable interest from a diverse range of global investors, including long-term development partners such as FMO and Proparco, who served as anchor investors.

Commenting on this achievement, Ecobank Group Financial Officer, Ayo Adepoju, said: “The bond was listed on the main market of the London Stock Exchange with a coupon rate of 9.5 per cent. The principal and interest repayment, totalling $524 million, was distributed to bondholders through the transaction agent on the bond maturity date of April 18, 2024.

“This inaugural bond we are retiring today was critical in introducing our firm to a wider array of global investors and contributed to the increased visibility of our brand in the capital markets.”

Against the backdrop of challenges posed by the global operating environment, including disruptions in the world supply chain and financial markets, Adepoju highlighted the Group’s resilience. He cited strong liquidity, a robust balance sheet, and a solid leadership team as key factors enabling Ecobank’s success.

He added that the successful repayment of the Eurobond underscores Ecobank’s commitment to financial stability and investor confidence, positioning the firm for continued growth and success in the global market.

 


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