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McKinsey Says Nigeria’s Top-20 Global Economy Quest Possible in 2030

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Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Coordinating Minister for the Economy
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In spite Nigeria been Africa’s most populous country and its largest economy, yet it is little understood outside the region – and its rapid economic development has been overshadowed by global coverage of recent terrorism incidents.

However, a new report from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) looks beyond the country’s immediate challenges to its longer-term potential.

The report, “Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering inclusive growth in Africa’s largest economy”, finds that with the right reforms and investments, Nigeria can become one of the world’s leading economies by 2030.

The report shows that Nigeria has the potential to expand its economy by roughly 7 percent per year through 2030, potentially raising GDP to more than $1.6 trillion.

This could make Nigeria a top-20 global economy—with higher GDP than the

Netherlands, Thailand, or Malaysia in 2030.

Its consumer class could number 160 million people by 2030, and 70 million citizens could be lifted out of poverty.

“Nigeria has extraordinary advantages for future growth, including a large consumer market, a strategic geographic location, and a young and highly entrepreneurial population,” said Reinaldo Fiorini, director and location manager of McKinsey’s Nigeria office.

The findings are based on analysis of five major sectors:

On Trade, it shows that consumption could more than triple, rising to $1.4 trillion a year in 2030, making trade the largest sector of the economy.

Agriculture entails the sector, currently the country’s largest, could more than double to $263 billion by 2030.

Infrastructure- Total infrastructure investments could reach $1.5 trillion through 2030.

While manufacturing shows that if Nigeria reaches its full potential, manufacturing could have a four-fold increase in output by 2030, to $144 billion a year.

In oil and gas, with the right reforms, the GDP contribution of the oil and gas sector could rise to $108 billion per year from $73 billion now; natural gas output could grow by 6 percent a year, adding $13 billion to GDP by 2030.

However, the report emphasizes that Nigeria will need to take concerted action on several fronts if it is to achieve its full potential for growth and translate economic progress into rising living standards and poverty reduction.

These include improving delivery of government services; re-prioritizing public spending towards programs that drive development; attracting fresh investment; and capitalizing on global trends such as rising demand for resources and the spread of the digital economy.

“Nigeria could potentially triple its GDP by 2030,” said Acha Leke, a director in McKinsey’s Nigeria office. “This adds up to a huge opportunity for inclusive growth that should not be missed.”

The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), the business and economics research arm of McKinsey & Company, was established in 1990 to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. Our goal is to provide leaders in the commercial, public, and social sectors with the facts and insights on which to base management and policy decisions.

The partners of McKinsey & Company fund MGI’s research; it is not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution.

 


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E-Financial

FirstCap MD says Payment Security Remains Biggest Barrier to Bankable Gas and Power Projects

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Ukandu E. Ukandu, Managing Director/CEO of FirstCap Limited, a leading investment banking firm and subsidiary of First HoldCo Plc., has reaffirmed that payment security remains the most decisive factor in determining whether gas and power projects in Nigeria secure financing.

He shared this perspective during a panel discussion on project bankability at the 2026 SPE Lagos Energy Week.

Ukandu noted that although several risks influence financing decisions, payment risk consistently emerges as the key barrier to financial close.
“Every major risk matter, but payment risk is the ultimate deal‑breaker. Without strong payment security and disciplined collections, no project can attract sustainable financing,” he said.

He explained that lenders typically evaluate three core risk pillars, payment reliability, foreign‑exchange exposure, and contract enforceability, with payment reliability presenting the greatest challenge across Nigeria’s energy value chain. Persistent collection inefficiencies, rising arrears, and liquidity pressures continue to weaken investor confidence.

To enhance payment security, Ukandu highlighted mechanisms widely used by financiers, including letters of credit, bank guarantees, escrow accounts with payment‑waterfall structures, reserve and sinking funds, sovereign or sub‑sovereign support, and take‑or‑pay offtake agreements.

Addressing foreign exchange risk, he noted that volatility remains difficult to manage, especially for projects with dollar‑denominated costs but naira‑denominated revenues. Lenders typically mitigate this through foreign exchange ‑linked tariff indexation, partial dollarisation for credible industrial offtakers, escrow protections, selective hedging, and foreign exchange reserve buffers.

However, he cautioned that indexation alone seldom eliminates exposure due to regulatory limits and timing delays.

On legal and regulatory certainty, Ukandu stressed the need for contracts that are enforceable and clearly structured, particularly around take‑or‑pay obligations, termination payments, step‑in rights, and dispute‑resolution frameworks. He added that factors such as tariff adjustments, licence changes, and price controls can significantly affect project viability if they are not fully addressed at the contracting stage.

While fiscal incentives such as tax holidays and accelerated depreciation can strengthen project economics, Ukandu emphasised that they cannot compensate for weak fundamentals.
“Incentives make a good project better, but they do not make a weak project bankable. Cash‑flow reliability and disciplined foreign exchange management must come first,” he said. He also noted that naira‑based incentives may lose value if project revenues are not indexed.

He concluded by urging industry players to prioritise revenue security from the earliest stages of project structuring: “Protect returns at the source. Build strong offtake arrangements with solid credit support and currency alignment to ensure cash is received in full and on time.”


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Sterling HoldCo Starts Allotment of Oversubscribed Public Offer Shares

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Sterling Financial Holdings Company Plc (Sterling HoldCo) has begun allotting 12,581,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each at ₦7.00 per share from its 2025 Public Offer.

Sterling HoldCo Starts Allotment of Oversubscribed Public Offer Shares

Sterling HoldCo

The process follows Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) approvals.

The offer, opened September 15, 2025, drew 18,280 applications for 16.84 billion shares worth ₦117.88 billion—109.79 per cent oversubscribed.

Valid applications from 18,276 shareholders totalled 13.81 billion shares; all compliant applicants receive full allotments.

Refunds for rejects/excess, plus interest, process via RTGS/NIBSS by February 17, 2026, handled by Pace Registrars Limited.

Shares credit to CSCS accounts by the same date; new accounts held in pool pending documentation.

The raise bolsters capital for banking subsidiaries, injects ₦10 billion into SterlingFI Wealth Management to meet SEC rules, and funds credit expansion, innovation, and support for businesses/households.

Strong Financials, Diversified Growth

FY25 interim results show 99 per cent profit before tax growth; gross earnings up 46 per cent to ₦476.5 billion; assets at ₦3.92 trillion; deposits up 18 per cent to ₦2.98 trillion; shareholders’ funds up 39 per cent to ₦424 billion.

Cost-to-income ratio improved to 63 per cent from 72 per cent.

Subsidiaries—Sterling Bank Limited (conventional), The Alternative Bank Limited (non-interest, 150+ branches)—comply with CBN capital rules.

Initiatives include Mata Zalla (women tricycle training) and Plateau agriculture programme.

The offer attracted first-time retail investors, broadening ownership.

Sterling HoldCo welcomes new shareholders, poised for sustained growth and economic impact.


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Ecobank Nigeria Fully Repays $300m Eurobond Notes

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Ecobank Nigeria has announced the successful repayment of the outstanding principal and accrued interest on its original $300 million Eurobond due February 16, 2026, marking a significant milestone in its liability management strategy and overall balance sheet strengthening efforts.

Ecobank Nigeria Fully Repays $300m Eurobond Notes

Following the full repayment of the Eurobond obligations, the Bank stated that it will now focus its funding initiatives primarily on the domestic capital markets. T

his strategic shift reflects growing confidence in Nigeria’s local debt market and aligns with Ecobank Nigeria’s long-term objective of optimising funding costs while deepening its participation in the domestic financial ecosystem.

“Going forward, Ecobank Nigeria will prioritise domestic credit ratings and local debt issuance to achieve its funding objectives,” stated Ogorchukwu Okwechime, Financial Controller, Ecobank Nigeria, in Lagos.

He added that the successful repayment reinforces the Bank’s commitment to maintaining a resilient balance sheet and sustaining investor confidence.

The tender offer was conducted with Renaissance Capital Africa (Renaissance Securities Nigeria Limited) acting as financial adviser and dealer manager, while Sodali & Co Limited served as tender agent.

The notes were originally issued by EBN Finance Company B.V., with limited recourse to the issuer, for the sole purpose of financing the purchase of the US$300 million 7.125 per cent Senior Note due 2026 issued by Ecobank Nigeria.

The transaction underscores Ecobank Nigeria’s proactive approach to liability management, prudent capital planning, and strategic alignment with evolving market conditions.

It further positions the Bank to leverage domestic funding opportunities while maintaining financial flexibility and operational stability.


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