E-Financial
MasterCard Says Nigeria, 3 Others on Digital Evolution Threshold
A new Digital Evolution Index from MasterCard shows that South Africa, Egypt, Kenya and Nigeria are quickly moving towards digital evolution.
However, South Africa’s digital economy is the most developed in Africa, and one of the fastest growing in the world, according to the new Digital Evolution Index developed by MasterCard and The Fletcher School at Tufts University that tracks a country’s movement toward digital evolution, gauges progress and assesses challenges in 50 countries comprising the Index.
South Africa ranks 33 out of the countries measured by the index in digital readiness, which is defined by the markets’ ability to support and encourage digital commerce and payments. In Africa, it ranks ahead of Egypt (48), Kenya (49), and Nigeria (50).
South Africa also emerged as the fourth fastest growing digital economy behind China, Malaysia and Thailand.
“South Africa’s speed of growth can be attributed to the rapidly increasing proportion of the population with Internet access, an 86 percent adult mobile phone penetration rate, and a highly developed telecommunications network. However, what is significant is that all four of the African countries measured share a common trait of moving at a high rate of speed toward digital evolution, demonstrating huge growth potential for e-commerce,” said Ted Iacobuzio, Vice president, Global Insights, MasterCard.
The Index analyses four key underlying drivers and barriers that govern a country’s evolution into a digital economy, Demand (consumer demographics, income and internet access); Supply (technology and infrastructure); Institutional Environment (governmental policy), and Innovation (environment for creating startups and the overall competitive landscape).
Each country is given an overall digital readiness score between 0 (low digital readiness) and 100 (digitally saturated), which is derived from an average score of these four interdependent drivers.
The index also provides an indication, by country, where the next billion Internet users will come from globally.
According to McKinsey, Africa’s Internet penetration stood at 16 percent (167 million people) in 2013, and is forecasted to reach 50 percent (600 million people) by 2025, indicating the online consumer market will quadruple over this time.
“There are currently 2.9 billion Internet users in the world, a feat that took over 20 years to achieve. The next billion users will enter the market much faster than this. A significant proportion of these will come from Africa, where the four countries studied – Egypt, Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria – all represent exceptional growth potential coupled with short-term opportunity,” said Iacobuzio.
The study analysed each market’s evolution from 2008 to 2013 and grouped each country into one of four trajectory zones:
‘Stand Out’ countries have historically moved at a high rate of digital readiness and maintain high levels of digital transactions;
‘Break Out’ countries are typically developing countries that currently have low readiness scores, but are rapidly evolving;
‘Watch Out’ countries face various challenges, but have significant opportunities for investment; and
‘Stall Out’ countries, while possessing a history of strong growth, are highly evolved and offer little potential for change.
The Index positions South Africa as a ‘Break Out’ country with an overall score of 30 out of 100 in 2013. Its score jumped from 24 to 34 between 2008 and 2012, a substantial increase compared to other countries.
While infrastructure investments in South Africa will drive e-commerce to achieve a likely 30 percent growth rate in 2014, the Index indicates that demand for e-commerce currently lags the global average.
“South Africa may have a relatively average Index score overall, but its digital landscape is evolving rapidly. If this evolution continues at its current rate, South Africa has the potential to grow into a strong digital economy. It is a prime candidate for becoming a ‘Stand Out’ nation in the future,” he says.
The three other African countries ranked in the index are classified as “Watch Out” countries. Egypt scored 17.3, Kenya scored 16.9 and Nigeria scored 13.7 out of 100. These countries are just starting out on their journeys towards digital readiness, each facing different challenges.
“Encouragingly, Egypt, Kenya and Nigeria fared well in their speed of digital growth. This points to their potential to develop into evolved digital economies that further encourage digital payments, and enable future e-commerce opportunities,” he said.
Key African Insights:
Egypt’s Innovation score of 29.5 and its Demand and Supply drivers both above 15 helped place it second in the African rankings.
According to the Index, Egypt has the potential to be one of the top 10 fastest evolving countries globally in the next five years.
Mobile payments are in place for an impressive run due to the the first ever interoperable Arabic mobile money implementation in Egypt. While the e-commerce penetration rate among Egyptians is still low at 3.4 percent, Egypt’s online purchases are expected to triple by 2016, according to Euromonitor.
Kenya’s Innovation score of 32.9 was its highest driver score followed by its Institution score of 14.
This is due to a combination of factors including the country’s mobile payment capabilities, led by the M-Pesa platform, which shows an evolved mobile market where 25 percent of Kenya’s GDP travels through M-Pesa.
In 2013, Kenya’s mobile penetration rate was 72.5 percent growing by 5.6 percent to 32.3 million subscribers during the second quarter of 2014. Kenya faces challenges with its Supply and Demand drivers, which if focussed on over time will lead to an improved overall Index score.
Nigeria’s Innovation and Institution drivers fared relatively well largely owing to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Cashless Policy that is expected to drive growth in electronic payments and e-commerce, the country’s increasingly urban population that will have better access to the Internet over the coming years, and the fact that Nigeria has 94 percent mobile penetration.
Its Supply and Demand drivers have much potential for improvement, with scores of 6.8 and 7.3 respectively, pointing to a need for improved technology and infrastructure.
However, Nigeria showed the greatest potential for digital growth.
Globally, Singapore, Sweden and Hong Kong are the top three countries on the Index with the most active and advanced digital economies with scores of 56, 55 and 53.5 respectively.
The United Kingdom and Switzerland round out the top five, while the United States ranks sixth among the 50 countries measured.
The Digital Evolution Index is an output of the study conducted by researchers at The Fletcher School with the support of MasterCard.
Analyzing datasets from public sources, such as The World Bank, and private sources such as EMPEA and Dow Jones VentureSource, the research team created an analytical framework for recognizing patterns and making sense of the global digital landscape, discerning country trends and evaluating their relative strengths and weaknesses.
The methodology for the Digital Evolution Index measures the current ability of countries to deliver on consumer demand and business supply capabilities, in combination with governmental policy and climate for innovation – four drivers defining digital readiness that were identified in the research hypothesis.
In addition to the current state, the study measured each country’s trajectory across the four drivers from 2008 through 2013.
The index then layers a quadrant matrix to visualize the trajectory of a particular country.
David Malpass, former World Bank President, has warned that Nigeria’s increasing reliance on collateral-backed and complex borrowing arrangements could make any future debt restructuring more difficult and discourage investors if the country’s debt position becomes unsustainable.
David Malpass, former World Bank President
Malpass, who was 13th president of the World Bank Group, from April 9, 2019 – June 1, 2023, raised the concern in a World Bank Policy Research Working Paper titled Public Debt and Central Banks, which was based on the Stanley Fischer Memorial Lecture delivered at the World Bank Group’s Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics.
He said increasingly sophisticated collateralised transactions in developing economies, including Nigeria, Angola and Senegal, were creating what he described as “a new race toward seniority in the capital structure.”
In sovereign lending, collateralised creditors may gain priority over other lenders by tying repayment to specific assets, revenues or financial instruments. Malpass warned that the expansion of such arrangements could leave fewer resources available for unsecured creditors and make negotiations more contentious during a debt crisis.
He also questioned the growing use of guarantee products provided by multilateral development banks, arguing that their effectiveness had not been adequately tested during sovereign debt restructurings.
According to him, private lending to distressed or high-risk governments has become less transparent, with some commercial agreements containing non-disclosure clauses that prevent citizens, investors and other creditors from understanding their full implications.
Malpass said debt reconciliation efforts were already being hindered by limited access to sovereign loan contracts, particularly agreements linked to Chinese lending programmes.
The former World Bank chief also criticised the international debt restructuring system, arguing that existing mechanisms had failed to provide timely and meaningful relief to heavily indebted countries.
Beyond debt transparency, Malpass identified exchange rate stability as an important requirement for Nigeria’s economic growth.
He grouped Nigeria with Ethiopia and Egypt among countries where multiple exchange rates and poorly managed currency systems had transferred wealth from low-income earners to politically or economically privileged groups.
He estimated Nigeria’s per capita income at about $1,500, or roughly $4 a day, while noting that median income was likely to be considerably lower because wealth remained concentrated among a small proportion of the population.
Malpass argued that the benefits of credible currency reform could be substantial, pointing to the significantly higher earnings of Nigerians working abroad as evidence of the country’s unrealised productive potential.
He disclosed that, while serving as World Bank president, he held several meetings with Nigeria’s previous administration, cabinet officials and the bank’s Nigeria team to identify reforms capable of accelerating economic growth.
Those discussions highlighted currency stabilisation, exchange rate unification, oil sector reforms, tax changes and agricultural liberalisation, particularly in rice production, as priorities.
Malpass said the reforms could transform Nigeria’s economy in a manner comparable to the policy changes that helped launch China’s sustained period of rapid growth in the 1990s.
Malpass’ warning comes amid continuing scrutiny of Nigeria’s use of unconventional financing to refinance expensive obligations and cover budget deficits.
The International Monetary Fund and Fitch Ratings had earlier raised concerns about the Federal Government’s proposed $5 billion Total Return Swap with First Abu Dhabi Bank, warning that derivatives-based sovereign borrowing could obscure the country’s true debt exposure and complicate future restructuring.
Despite those concerns, Nigeria reportedly accessed an initial tranche of about $1.5 billion from the arrangement.
The controversy follows years of debate over the transparency of Nigeria’s borrowing, including loans linked to crude oil revenues, infrastructure assets and bilateral agreements whose full terms were not always publicly disclosed. With debt-service costs consuming a substantial share of government revenue, the latest warning reinforces concerns that short-term financing relief could create more difficult obligations for future administrations.
Ecobank Nigeria has launched Scaling Up!!!, its flagship business storytelling podcast designed to inspire, educate and empower entrepreneurs, founders, business leaders and the next generation of African innovators through authentic conversations with some of the continent’s most accomplished business personalities.
The podcast, which will be available on Ecobank Nigeria’s official YouTube channel and other major digital streaming platforms, reinforces the bank’s commitment to supporting businesses beyond banking by creating a platform where entrepreneurs can learn from the experiences of successful founders, creatives and industry leaders who have built thriving enterprises across diverse sectors.
Featuring compelling conversations on entrepreneurship, leadership, innovation, resilience and business growth, Scaling Up!!! offers practical lessons and real-life insights that aspiring and established entrepreneurs can apply in building sustainable businesses.
The inaugural season features an impressive lineup of distinguished guests, including beauty entrepreneur and Founder/CEO of Beauty by AD, Adeola Adeyemi (Diiadem); renowned filmmaker and Founder of Golden Effects Pictures, Kunle Afolayan; veteran music producer and Founder of Coded Tunes, ID Cabasa; luxury fashion entrepreneur, Ejiro Amos Tafiri; celebrated commercial photographer, Emmanuel Oyeleke; Co-founder and Lead Interior Designer of Siriano Limited, Adewunmi Adegbola; and Founder of Windsor Gallery and Nahous Creative Hub, Richard Vedelago.
Each episode explores the guests’ entrepreneurial journeys, highlighting the opportunities they embraced, the challenges they overcame and the strategies that enabled them to build enduring brands and successful businesses.
Speaking on the launch, Austen Osokpor, Head, Marketing & Corporate Communications, Ecobank Nigeria, said: “Scaling Up!!! reflects Ecobank’s belief that empowering entrepreneurs goes beyond providing financial solutions.
“Through authentic storytelling and insightful conversations, we are creating a platform where business owners can learn directly from people who have successfully navigated the realities of building sustainable enterprises. It is another way we are reinforcing our commitment to driving entrepreneurship, innovation and economic growth across Africa.”
Also speaking, Head, SMEs, Partnerships & Collaborations, Ecobank Nigeria, Omoboye Odu, said: “Entrepreneurs learn best from the experiences of those who have walked the journey before them. Scaling Up!!! provides practical insights, inspiration and valuable lessons that will help founders make better business decisions, overcome challenges and unlock new opportunities for growth.
“The podcast further strengthens Ecobank’s role as a trusted partner supporting SMEs at every stage of their entrepreneurial journey.”
Sharing the creative vision behind the initiative, the Producer of Scaling Up!!!, Jemimah Ugiagbe, said: “Our goal was to create more than just another business podcast. We wanted honest, engaging and relatable conversations that reveal the realities behind success, the setbacks, the resilience, the bold decisions, and the lessons that every entrepreneur can learn from.
“Every episode is designed to leave listeners informed, inspired and motivated to build businesses that create lasting impact.”
The podcast further strengthens Ecobank Nigeria’s position as a trusted partner for entrepreneurs by providing a knowledge-sharing platform that extends beyond traditional banking services. GeographicReference
Through meaningful conversations with accomplished founders and innovators, the bank continues to demonstrate its commitment to fostering enterprise development, encouraging innovation and promoting sustainable economic growth across Africa.
Scaling Up!!! is targeted at SMEs, entrepreneurs, founders, startups, business executives, creatives, students and young professionals seeking practical business insights from some of Africa’s most respected industry leaders.
New episodes will be released regularly across Ecobank Nigeria’s YouTube channel and other major podcast streaming platforms, offering audiences thought-provoking conversations on entrepreneurship, leadership, innovation and business growth.
Ecobank Nigeria is a member of the Ecobank Group, the leading pan-African banking institution with operations in 33 African countries and international offices in London, Paris, Beijing, and Dubai.
With over 220 branches, more than 36,000 agency banking locations, and robust digital platforms, Ecobank delivers accessible, affordable, and instant banking services. The bank is strategically positioned to support pan-African trade, particularly under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
S&P Global has agreed to acquire a majority stake in Agusto & Co., one of Africa’s oldest and largest domestic credit rating agencies, in a move that signals growing international interest in the continent’s capital markets and credit ecosystem.
According to a joint statement by the rating agencies. The transaction, which is subject to regulatory approvals, will give the global ratings giant a stronger foothold in Africa through Agusto & Co.’s operations in Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, and Rwanda. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.
The acquisition marks one of the most significant investments by a global ratings agency in Africa’s domestic credit ratings market in recent years and comes as governments and companies across the continent increasingly rely on local debt markets to finance infrastructure, corporate expansion, and fiscal deficits.
Yann Le Pallec, president of S&P Global Ratings, said the investment reflects the company’s long-term commitment to Africa’s financial markets.
“We are delighted to partner with Agusto & Co. to strengthen our domestic ratings presence across Africa,” Le Pallec said. “This transaction underscores our commitment to supporting growth and transparency in local credit markets throughout the continent.”
He added that combining S&P Global’s international analytical capabilities with Agusto & Co.’s local market knowledge would help improve credit transparency and support investor confidence across African markets.
Founded more than three decades ago, Agusto & Co. has built a reputation as one of Africa’s leading domestic rating agencies, providing credit ratings on banks, corporates, and other institutions. The company has expanded beyond Nigeria into several African markets and has played a key role in the development of domestic bond markets.
For Agusto & Co., the transaction represents a major milestone in its growth strategy and fulfills a long-held ambition to align with a global ratings institution.
“This partnership is a transformational milestone for Agusto & Co. and African capital markets, fulfilling our late founder’s vision of affiliating with a leading global rating agency,” said Yinka Adelekan, managing director of Agusto & Co.
According to Adelekan, the combination of Agusto’s regional expertise with S&P Global’s international resources and analytical network is expected to create broader opportunities for issuers and investors while supporting more transparent and resilient credit markets across Africa.
Despite the ownership change, Agusto & Co. said it will continue operating as an independent domestic ratings agency, maintaining its own rating methodologies and issuing ratings under applicable regulatory frameworks.
That structure is expected to preserve the agency’s regulatory standing in the jurisdictions where it operates while enabling it to benefit from S&P Global’s technology, research capabilities, and global market expertise.
The acquisition also reflects increasing global interest in Africa’s capital markets, where governments are pursuing domestic borrowing strategies and private companies are seeking alternative sources of long-term financing amid tighter global liquidity conditions.
The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions. S&P Global said the acquisition is not expected to have a material impact on its financial results.
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