The new interconnect rate just issued by Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has been greeted with fixed feelings. Some sections of the industry stakeholders led by Deolu Ogunbanjo, president, National Association of Telecommunications Subscribers of Nigeria (Natcoms) are arguing that the new rate will not achieve its desired objective going by what it term ‘price cap’ directive given by the NCC which is yet to be reviewed.
‘Price cap’ is the tariff limit that any telecommunications operator offering voice service is eligible to charge in the industry. According to Natcoms president, the price cap has been pegged at N50 per minute, which means that operators are at liberty to charge within N50 per minute.
Ogunbanjo insists that unless this directive is reversed, the hope of operators reducing call tariff to reflect the new interconnect rate will not be realized. This argument has been shared by many others who have decried the inability of operators to reduce both voice and short message service (SMS).
However, other section of the industry comprising mostly of operators maintained that ‘Price cap’ has little or nothing in determining call tariff and that it is partly interconnect rate as well as individual operators decision. They explained interconnect rate as the commercial settlement rate between telecommunications operators and could also serve as basis for determining tariff charged by telecom operators in the country.
According to the group, the interconnect rate as issued by NCC is provision of direction on how the market will go, and that the decision to reduce tariff is a commercial one that is determined by the market forces, as well as individual operators. They added that reduction in interconnect rate does not translate to reduction in the tariff payable by end users.
In whichever way it is viewed, the underlining fact is that operators are at liberty to adjust their tariff plan based on the new interconnect rate.
NCC noted that a benchmark of Nigerian operators’ SMS retail tariffs reveals huge differences between On-Net and Off-Net tariffs. The tariff plans of some Nigerian operators give Off-Net tariffs that are three times as high as the On-Net tariffs. Such differences are usually used by operators to promote closed user groups, i.e. to force subscribers to follow friends or family to the network operator they use, since On-Net tariffs are much cheaper. This lock-in effect the commission said is intensified in countries with low income levels since the affordability of services is an important issue for the majority of the population.
International benchmarks show furthermore that the main users of SMS services are young subscribers between ages 12 and 24 years. This user group is characterised by much lower income than the average levels, and therefore more attracted to the benefits related to the lock-in effect.
The case of CDMA operators
Contrary to what obtains in most countries such as United States of America and India, Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) operators in the country’s telecommunications space are lagging behind in terms of subscribers. This could be attributed to the fact that, it is expensive to deploy the technology compared to Global System for Mobile communications (GSM) as well as regulatory hindrance such as limited mobility which prevented roaming service for CDMA operators outside their jurisdiction they have secured license. These were some of the reasons their rolling out plan was not as fast as GSM operators.
In all of these, the story of CDMA operators have not being too bad as there has been a boomlet among CDMA-based fixed-wireless operators in Nigeria — Starcomms, Multi-Links, Reliance Telecommunications (ZOOMmobile) and most recently Visafone. These players had their regionally based licenses upgraded to unified access service licenses (UASLs) in 2006, allowing them to extend their reach beyond traditional geographical limits and compete in both the fixed and mobile markets. It’s therefore not surprising that these operators have gladly extended their services into mobile markets and now pose a threat to the three established GSM-based operators, MTN, Zain and Globacom, both in terms of chipping into their revenues and snatching GSM subscribers.
The number of mobile CDMA subscriptions in Nigeria grew from just 380,000 in 2007 to more than 7m at year-end 2009 — that’s from 1% to 10.6% of all mobile lines in just one year. The top three GSM mobile operators are expected to keep their grip on the mobile market because the total number of GSM subscribers also increased by about 56% in the same period, but they will face increasing competition from CDMA operators. This means the trio will generate 64% of Nigeria’s telecom revenue in 2014, down from their 74% share in 2008.
The advantage that the CDMA operators have in Nigeria is that they are able to charge lower on-net and off-net call charges than GSM operators. Also, CDMA operators have fewer subscribers and less strain on their networks, which means they can provide better service quality. They also provide very cheap and partly subsidized mobile handsets that will appeal to the low-end market, especially those who have never been able to afford a handset. For instance, Visafone launched services in March 2008 and started selling handsets at ridiculously low prices, starting at just N2000. The operator’s customer base jumped from just 60,000 subscribers in March to 2.25m at the end of 2008, with the majority purchasing handsets for the first time.
It is believed that the key to success for CDMA operators and the reason why they are becoming more popular in Nigeria is their strategy to penetrate into rural, underserved communities and to provide affordable, effective services that appeal to the less fortunate among Nigeria’s 146m inhabitants. It is on this basis that the new interconnect rate provides an opportunity for CDMA operators to further penetrate into the market by reducing their call tariff for both on-net and off-net tariffs.
In 2008, mobile CDMA service accounted for an estimated 6.3% of the market’s $8.6bn in total revenue, and we expect this share to grow to 11% by 2013. We also expect that, barring major changes in market conditions, CDMA operators will grab 20% of mobile subscriptions by 2014. Our Country Intelligence Report on Nigeria provides more comprehensive insight into the country’s communications market.
A survey carried out in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja has indicated a growing demand in the GSM dominated market for CDMA based mobile phones. The survey, carried out by ‘The Tide’ cited the regular problems with network congestion on the GSM networks in the city for the increased interest in CDMA operators. Currently there are four CDMA operators in the city, Multi-links, Visafone, Starcomms and Reltel.
The respondents hinged their optimism on clarity of communication and affordability of CDMA phones, when compared with GSM phones.
"For instance, with as little as N1,500, you can get a phone and a line on the CDMA network, while for a GSM line, a subscriber may need to pay at least twice that amount," claimed respondents to the survey.
Mr. Wakili Shehu, a telecommunications consultant said that "the technology also provides the capacity for quicker transmission of data and Internet, unlike the GSM which has limited capacity," but he warned that the use of the CDMA technology in the country was also fraught with challenges, such as limited coverage of cities and towns, unlike the GSM.
In spite of the progress recorded so far by CDMA operators, there are still a lot of grounds to cover if they are to compete with the GSM operators especially as NCC is planning to introduce Number Portability.
According to subscriber’s statistics released by NCC for the month of October last year, mobile CDMA figure stood at 7,291,714, fixed wireless subscribers which are also from the table CDMA is put at 1,366,269. This is far from 63,250,377 subscribers of GSM operators.
The low subscriber base of CDMA operators has raised serious concern as this has really affected their profitability. This situation demands a radical approach for them to match GSM operators or move closer to them.
What can CDMA Operators Do
The new interconnect rate which took effect from December 31, 2009 allows operators to exchange traffic for mobile (voice) termination by new entrants in Nigeria irrespective of the originating network at N10.12. The interconnection rate for mobile (voice) termination provided by other operators in Nigeria irrespective of the originating network is now N8.20 from December 31, 2009.
NCC also put the interconnection rate for SMS termination provided by new entrants in Nigeria irrespective of the originating network as follows: N1.94 from December 31, 2009; The interconnection rate for SMS termination provided by other operators in Nigeria irrespective of the originating network which took effect from the 31st of December 2009 is now N1.02.
The opportunity provided by this scenario is that CDMA operators can now irrespective of what GSM operators are charging now reduce their call tariff to N15 and N25. By so doing, they are most likely in view of the nature of Nigeria subscribers most of who would prefer operators whose tariff is cheaper, recorded tremendous growth in their subscriber base.