E-Financial
FXTM Emerging Currency Outlook 2016
The year that was 2015 saw emerging currencies challenged by a resurgent USD powering up alongside the US economic recovery, which added to the challenges faced by commodity-linked emerging economies amid a global slowdown in Oil and Gold prices and additional concerns over how a slowing down China economy would impact the general sentiment towards the emerging markets.
The results were a clear downward trend for emerging currencies and we continued to highlight emerging market currency weakness as a global phenomenon throughout 2015.
The emerging market currencies which were the most heavily crushed during the year were those that belonged to economies dependent on commodity exports, therefore the Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysia Ringgit and Nigerian Naira fell victim to this.
The USDIDR plunged from 12428 in January to 14733 at the end of the year, while the Malaysian Ringgit exploded into astonishing weakness and the USDMYR sky-rocketed from 3.4950 to 4.4580 by the end of the year.
The Nigerian Naira appeared vulnerable to extreme losses as 2015 commenced, but a controversial move to ban USD deposits likely prevented further currency weakness and at least improved domestic demand for the Nigerian currency.
Another huge contributor behind the losses in the emerging market currencies globally were the intense concerns surrounding the China economy entering a deep slowdown.
From the second half of 2015 we pointed out that a slowing down China economy was not a problem for China itself, but for all those economies reliant on trade with China and this helped the weakness in the emerging markets accelerate as 2015 drew to a close.
From a domestic standpoint, the China economy is still performing and from recent data we can see that there is no hesitance from consumers to spend in retail, and I still believe that citizens living in China will only become concerned by economic weakness if it begins to hurt employment prospects.
The major bright spot for China in 2015 was the Yuan being added to the prestigious SDR basket from the IMF, which underpins how critical China has become to the global economy regardless of its own reduced GDP growth.
Despite the SDR introduction for the Yuan, the trend for the China currency will remain weak throughout 2016.
The SDR introduction is positive for understanding the longer-term prospects for China within the global economy, but it does not prevent the domestic economy from continuing to experience reduced growth in the short to mid-term.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will continue to take measures to improve economic fortunes for China, which we believe will include a gradual further depreciation of the Chinese currency.
This is a strategic move from the PBoC, with the aim of enhancing export competiveness and encouraging consumers to stop looking for products abroad and to instead consume domestically.
If however consumers still chose to import from overseas they will incur higher import costs which will improve another area of concern for the China economy, slowing inflation.
The only emerging market currencies that did not suffer steep losses in 2015 were those that were pegged to the USD, which became very supportive towards the UAE Dirham (AED).
Local equity markets have suffered due to depressed commodity prices as expected, however the losses were not as intense as they could have been due to the USD peg.
While the local economy will encounter lower growth with dramatically lower commodity prices, investors can use the benefits of the USD peg to consume products from abroad, such as with the Euro and Pound, to boost overseas consumption.
As we look towards 2016, the major turning point for all the emerging currencies will in some ways be in response to higher interest rates from the United States, but in my view it will be how they respond to a new environment of reduced economic growth which will be important.
While it is largely true that the reasons behind the huge falls in the emerging market currencies were due to external factors, 2016 could see these external factors transform into internal and domestic pressures such as reduced spending power and reduced budgets that might lead to jobs being lost.
The continued depression in the commodity markets is also going to limit any potential for a recovery in fortunes.
Slowing growth will continue to occur in China and will likely be a threat to India, although it is very possible that the proactive easing of monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of India might encourage borrowing domestically and help drive growth.
It is worth remembering that the central banks in China and India have been actively intervening to shore up their own economies through monetary easing and there will be some hope that this could help drive industry growth and that as commodity importers, the lower import costs should help create budget for investment elsewhere.
As long as the USD strength and commodity price weakness persists, emerging currencies will continue to experience downward pressures into the first quarter of 2016.
Another factor in play is a further increase in the US interest rates, which would likely lead to even more downward pressures on the Chinese Yuan, Nigerian Naira, Malaysian Ringgit, Indian Rupee and Indonesian Rupiah.
I do believe that as the emerging economies begin to encounter their own reduced domestic growth that this could weigh on outflows and threaten demand for their currencies even further.
Any black swan events in emerging economies or increased geo-political tensions in 2016 will also be more than enough to create uncertainties in the markets and this will impact both the emerging and Asian currencies.
The current threat of a possible black swan event would be removing the peg from the Saudi Arabian Riyal, which would create huge uncertainties throughout the GCC and Middle-East markets.
It would also further weaken the outlook for oil prices because market participants would see the move as the Saudi government choosing to devalue its currency rather than cut oil production.
However, it is important to stress that we do not expect such a move as of yet and this is more of a risk that investors could choose to monitor in case it impacts their investment portfolio.
By Jameel Ahmad, Chief Market Analyst at FXTM
Flutterwave has distanced itself from reports claiming the federal government has approved a $75 million investment in the company as a precursor to a public listing.
In a statement, Flutterwave dismissed the reports as “inaccurate,” specifically refuting claims that it is on the verge of a $250 million Initial Public Offering (IPO).
The denial follows a flurry of local media reports on Monday, sparked in part by a now-deleted social media post from a special assistant to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Flutterwave has said it has no knowledge of a reported $75 million investment by Nigeria’s federal government, pushing back against local media reports that suggested the deal had been approved as part of the company’s path toward a public listing.
Earlier reports on Monday, including a now-deleted tweet from a special assistant to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, stated that the president had authorised an investment of $75 million in the payments company through the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MoFI).
Flutterwave’s spokesperson clarified the company’s position stating that, “Flutterwave is not in any way close to an IPO, and they have made no announcements regarding a listing or fundraising tied to an IPO as described.”
The confusion highlights the intense scrutiny surrounding the unicorn, which was valued at over $3 billion during its 2022 funding round.
While Flutterwave has long been touted as the torchbearer for African tech on the global public stage, the company appears to have pivoted toward a more conservative timeline.
The reports also indicated that the startup was preparing to raise up to $250 million in an initial public offering.
CitiTrust Financial Services Limited, the parent company of Osun-partly owned LivingTrust Mortgage Bank, has approached the Court of Appeal sitting in Lagos, following the company’s conviction at the Federal High Court, Lagos, over alleged fraud and illegal financial operations.
CitiTrust, is challenging the conviction and asset forfeiture order handed down by the Court in the case brought the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).
EFCC accused it of money laundering, illegal financial operations, and operating a Ponzi scheme.
Federal High Court, had ordered the forfeiture of the firm’s assets to the federal government of Nigeria, citing evidence of unlawful financial activities.
CitiTrust is fighting back according to the hearing notice No. CA/L/571/2025, issued on April 15, 2026, the appeal against the federal government, will be heard at the Court of Appeal complex in Tafawa Balewa Square, Lagos.
The matter, listed before Court 1, will first address a motion by the appellants seeking leave to file their appeal out of time.
Oyetola Muyiwa Atoyebi (SAN), counsel to the appellants, in a motion dated September 23, 2025, argued that procedural delays necessitated the application.
He explained that although the Record of Appeal was transmitted on May 26, 2025, the defence could not file its Brief of Argument within the stipulated 45 days due to time constraints and competing professional obligations.
Atoyebi further noted that the appellants’ brief exceeds the 35-page limit prescribed under the Court of Appeal Rules, 2021, by three pages, requiring the court’s permission for its adoption.
The appellants are therefore seeking the leave of the court to file and serve their Brief of Argument out of time, an order extending the time for filing, and an order deeming the already filed brief as properly filed.
The EFCC had earlier secured a conviction against CitiTrust and its subsidiaries, CitiTrust Asset Management Limited and CitiTrust Holding Plc, over alleged fraudulent financial operations.
It would be recalled that in a ruling delivered by Justice Friday Nemakonam Ogazi of the Federal High Court, Lagos, the judge held that there was overwhelming evidence linking the firms to unlawful activities.
The court found that one of the entities was not duly registered with regulatory authorities, including the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), describing the operations as illegal despite corporate registration.
Relying on Section 12 of the Proceeds of Crime (Recovery and Management) Act, 2022, the court ruled that the EFCC had established, on a balance of probabilities, that the assets were proceeds of unlawful activity.
Justice Ogazi also invoked provisions of the Advance Fee Fraud and Other Fraud Related Offences Act and the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA), holding that the corporate veil could be lifted where fraud is alleged.
“The law is that when issues of fraud arise, the corporate veil must be lifted. Statutory provisions cannot be used as a refuge to justify illegality,” the court held.
The court subsequently ordered the final forfeiture of CitiTrust-linked assets, forfeiture of shares held in LivingTrust Mortgage Bank Plc, compensation of investors from recovered funds, and transfer of any balance to the Federal Government.
The anti-graft agency had also declared some executive directors of the firm wanted, alleging that they are currently on the run.
Federal court in Lagos has suspended the enforcement of Nigeria’s most comprehensive framework for regulating digital lending apps.
On April 15, Justice Ambrose Lewis-Allagoa of the Federal High Court in Lagos granted an interim injunction blocking the enforcement of the Digital, Electronic, Online, or Non-Traditional Consumer Lending Regulations 2025, better known as the DEON Regulations.
The order followed an urgent ex parte application filed the previous day by the Wireless Application Service Providers Association of Nigeria (WASPA Nigeria), the industry body representing wireless application service providers operating mainly within the telecoms ecosystem.
The suit targets twelve specific provisions of the text, covering licensing, sanctions, compliance obligations and data-handling rules, according to court documentation published by Lawyard.
Until the next hearing on April 27, 2026, the regulator cannot impose sanctions, enforce compliance directives, or issue new instructions to WASPA members.
The judge also barred the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) from interfering with the ongoing commercial operations of association members.
The case pits two actors whose respective mandates the Nigerian legal framework has never clearly separated.
On one side stands the FCCPC — the federal agency established in 2018 to enforce consumer protection and competition — which gazetted the DEON Regulations on July 21, 2025, under sections 17, 18 and 163 of its founding Act.
In a press statement dated September 3, 2025, Tunji Bello, executive vice chairman, FCCPC, justified the rules by citing “a long history of complaints” involving exploitative practices, data breaches, abusive debt recovery, and harassment.
On the other side, WASPA Nigeria contests the very legitimacy of the FCCPC’s intervention, arguing that services tied to telecoms — airtime credit, data loans, mobile-financing products — fall exclusively under the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the telecoms regulator created by the Nigerian Communications Act of 2003.
In the affidavit deposed by Ayo Stuffman, the association contends that the FCCPC is acting ultra vires and creating a regulatory regime parallel to the NCC’s.
A jurisdictional war that stretches far beyond a procedural dispute
The conflict is not limited to a question of legal boundaries. It strikes at the commercial core of the market: who collects the licensing fees, who sets the operational conditions, who governs the financial products embedded in telecom networks.
Nigeria’s consumer credit stock reached 3.82 trillion naira at the end of December 2024, up 21.27% on September, according to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data relayed by The Cable and AFP.
In the fourth quarter of 2024 alone, personal loans disbursed amounted to approximately 470 billion naira.
A growing share flows through mobile applications and telecom-embedded lending products — including MTN’s MoMo Airtime Lending, operated by the country’s largest telecom operator.
If the court validates WASPA’s position, these products fall outside the FCCPC’s scope and come under the sole authority of the NCC, a regulator historically less active on consumer protection issues.
Available data on demand illustrate the social stakes. Between 2021 and 2023, the FCCPC recorded more than 11,000 consumer complaints for harassment, data abuse and unethical debt recovery practices, according to the agency.
The number of lending applications approved by the FCCPC rose from 269 in September 2024 to 408 in March 2025, while 47 apps were delisted and 88 were placed on the watchlist, according to data compiled by AFP and OneSafe.
The DEON Regulations were meant to introduce interest-rate caps, precontractual disclosure obligations, continuous supervision of recovery practices and fines of up to 100 million naira per violation, according to Legit.ng. The compliance deadline was set for January 5, 2026, and the FCCPC had issued written compliance notices to operators with an April 16 deadline, according to WASPA’s affidavit.
It is precisely this enforcement pressure that triggered the legal challenge.
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