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Dollar-Based Investors Recycle `Trapped’ Naira, Pause Investment

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The country’s foreign-exchange controls are undermining political reforms by President Muhammadu Buhari and making Nigeria “uninvestable” for buyers who measure returns in dollars, Exotix Partners LLP said.

According to Bloomberg, the reorganization of the state oil company’s structure, changes to the country’s bureaucracy and Buhari’s efforts to curb corruption all point to “root and branch” changes to the country’s governance structures, Hasnain Malik, head of frontier markets strategy at London-based Exotix, said in an interview in Nairobi, the Kenyan capital.

“All of that is a pretty powerful political and governance reform story,” he said. “It’s undermined from a foreign institutional investor standpoint by a very repressive economic policy and specifically a currency policy.”

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has pegged the naira at 197-199 per dollar since March last year, and restricted trading in foreign currencies, making imports costlier for a nation that’s a net importer of refined fuel and food. Importers struggle to access foreign exchange at the official rate, with the naira falling to around 320 on the black market.

“If you’re a dollar-based investor you can’t get over the fact that you could see either a major deterioration in the dollar value of your investment or your investment may be stuck,” Malik said.

Plunging Volumes
Share-trading volumes on the Nigerian stock exchange plunged to a seven-year low in the first quarter, as foreigners shun the market while they wait for a devaluation of the naira and as the country’s economy grows at its slowest pace in 17 years.

Volumes have recovered in the past two weeks as companies have paid out dividends and those who are prevented by the foreign-exchange policy from repatriating their funds are reinvesting, said Ali Khalpey, head of equities at Exotix.

“A lot of our clients have got trapped naira sitting in Nigeria, so now we see recycling of that naira back into the equities market,” Khalpey said.

“There is no point sitting in a foreign-currency line not knowing when you are going to get given your FX. You may as well buy the stock that you like over the long-term and hold it.”

While the amount of investor funds trapped in the country is unknown, it’s increasing, Khalphey said.

“People aren’t allowed to take their dividends out,” he said. “Clearly that number is growing on an daily basis.’

Nigeria risks being kicked out of the MSCI Frontier Markets Index by the end of the month because of the currency controls.

If the New York-based organization decides to exclude Nigerian stocks, the country could see about $480 million of equity investments exit, Oscar Onyema, the chief executive officer of the Nigerian Stock Exchange, said in an interview on Tuesday.


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E-Financial

CBN Dismisses  Polaris Bank Liquidation Claim

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has debunked rumours suggesting that Polaris Bank is undergoing liquidation, assuring the public that the country’s banking system remains stable and secure.

CBN Dismisses  Polaris Bank Liquidation Claim

Polaris Bank

The apex bank disclosed this in a post on X, where it shared a screenshot of a viral claim and flagged it as false.

It clarified that the claims, suggesting Polaris Bank had failed to meet recapitalisation requirements and was set for liquidation, are entirely false and do not reflect the current state of the Nigerian banking sector

“The Central Bank of Nigeria has noticed reports, in certain media outlets, about a recommendation for the Federal Government to take over some CBN-supervised financial institutions,” said Hakama Sidi-Ali, apex bank’s acting Director, Corporate Communications,  in a statement.

“To avoid any doubt, Nigerian banks are still safe and sound. The CBN advises the public to go about their daily lives without getting disturbed by reports regarding the health of Nigerian banks that have not come from the CBN.

“The CBN is fully equipped to carry out its statutory duty of ensuring the stability of Nigeria’s financial system. “We assure the general public and depositors that their funds are safe in Nigerian financial institutions. “Bank customers are therefore advised to proceed with their banking transactions as u

The clarification was after a viral post, claiming that Polaris Bank was facing liquidation for failing to meet the Bank’s recapitalisation requirements, and could soon lose its operating licence, with the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation set to take over the process.

It further alleged that founder of the Eleganza Group, Razaq Okoya, had made a bid to acquire and revive the bank, pending approval from regulators and shareholders.

Sharing a screenshot of the viral claim, however, the apex bank flagged it as “fake content.”

It clarified that the claims, suggesting Polaris Bank had failed to meet recapitalisation requirements and was set for liquidation did not reflect the current state of the Nigerian banking sector.

“This content is fake. Let the public be guided. The Nigerian Banking System is Safe and Secure,” the bank said.

On April 1, the CBN confirmed that 33 banks successfully met the revised minimum capital requirements under its recapitalisation programme, marking a significant milestone in strengthening the financial system.

 

 


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AfDB Okays $200m for Nigeria’s Digital Backbone, Others

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African Development Bank Group (AfDB) has approved a $200 million loan to Nigeria to support a landmark digital infrastructure initiative aimed at expanding broadband access, developing digital skills and driving large‑scale job creation.

AfDB Okays $200m for Nigeria’s Digital Backbone, Others

The financing will support the Digital Value Chain Infrastructure for Boosting Employment project, known as D‑VIBE or Project BRIDGE. The initiative seeks to deploy about 90 000 kilometres of new open‑access fibre optic cable across Nigeria, extending the national fibre backbone from roughly 30 000 km to about 120 000 km.

The expanded network will connect all 774 local government areas, including schools, hospitals, agro‑industrial zones, rural communities and commercial centres. It will also establish cross‑border digital links with Benin, Cameroon, Niger and Chad, strengthening regional integration.

Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and West Africa’s largest economy, with the digital sector increasingly contributing to gross domestic product growth. The project is expected to close major connectivity gaps, raise productivity and unlock job opportunities for young people.

D‑VIBE is structured as a public‑private partnership through a special purpose vehicle, with public ownership capped at between 25% and 49% and private sector participation ranging from 51% to 75%.

This structure is intended to address high fibre rollout costs, including construction and right‑of‑way challenges.

The African Development Bank loan forms part of an $800 million sovereign financing package, alongside $500 million from the World Bank and $100 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Total project financing is estimated at $2 billion, including a $25.79 million European Union grant, a $2.6 million Multilateral Cooperation Centre for Development Finance preparation grant and at least $1.2 billion in private sector investment.

“Nigeria has the talent, the market and the ambition, but lacked the backbone infrastructure to connect opportunity with potential,” said Abdul Kamara, Director General of the African Development Bank Group’s Nigeria Office.

“This project will deliver high‑speed connectivity nationwide and equip young people to build digital careers.”

Beyond physical infrastructure, the project will support affordable devices, large‑scale digital skills training and digital platforms in priority sectors. It also includes cybersecurity, competition reforms and resilience measures, including greater use of renewable and hybrid power.

D‑VIBE is expected to help create up to 2.8 million jobs and raise broadband penetration from 45% to around 70% by 2030. The project aligns with Nigeria’s Vision 2050 and continental development priorities.


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Nigeria’s Growth under Threat as Poverty Deepens, World Bank Warns

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World Bank has warned that Nigeria faces a deepening early childhood development crisis in health, nutrition, and learning, threatening long-term productivity and economic growth amid persistent poverty.

Nigeria’s Growth under Threat as Poverty Deepens, World Bank Warns

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In its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update, “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development,” the bank noted moderate 2026 growth driven by services like ICT, financial services, and real estate, following 4.0 per cent GDP expansion in 2025. Inflation eased to double digits via tight policy, stable exchange rates, and better food supply, while reserves hit $45.5 billion gross by end-2025, covering 8.7 months of imports.

Fiscal deficit widened slightly as non-oil revenues rose to 8.5 per cent of GDP from improved tax administration, e-filing, and VAT e-invoicing, though wage growth lagged inflation, leaving real incomes strained and poverty unchanged.

The bank highlighted poor outcomes with 110 of 1,000 children dying before age five, 40 per cent stunted, and 52 per cent developmentally off-track at school entry—gaps three times wider in poor households and exceeding 40 points between rich and poor. It urged investment in the first 2,000 days for better education, earnings, health, and cohesion.

Regionally, Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2026 growth forecast dipped to 4.1 per cent from 4.4 per cent due to Middle East conflict inflating fuel and fertiliser costs.

Finance Minister Wale Edun countered with recovery signs: falling inflation, rising non-oil revenues, declining debt-to-GDP, and stabilising naira via digital tracking, audits, and PPP shifts. Budget Director Tanimu Yakubu described reforms as correcting imbalances from subsidies and multiple rates, boosting FAAC revenues 40 per cent and reserves over $40 billion, with debt under 30 per cent of GDP.

NACCIMA President Jani Ibrahim called for data-driven strategies amid tax changes, inflation, and global tensions, eyeing AfCFTA, digital economy, and green investments for growth.


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