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CBN Should Eliminate Factors Working Against Naira- Otunuga

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
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The painful combination of declining oil prices and an appreciating Dollar has punished the Nigerian economy with the Naira being left under immense pressure, said Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.

Speaking to Nigeria CommunicationsWeek on factors working against naira in the forex market, Otunuga, a keen follower of macroeconomic events, with a strong professional and academic background in finance and well versed in the various factors affecting the currency and commodity markets, said that concerns over slowing domestic growth continue to weigh on sentiment, while an appreciating Dollar, which although is not the legal tender in Nigeria, seems to be the driving force which has haunted investor attraction towards the Naira.

He said that Nigeria as the largest economy in Africa with a growing population and an abundance of natural resources, possess potentials to become the central hub for the African forex markets.

“It must be understood that Nigeria is an import nation so an appreciating Dollar may weigh heavily on businesses which in turn pass the increased costs to citizens. If the fall in oil prices persists and the Fed raise US rates, then the Naira could be left vulnerable to further losses.

Why Naira Is Not Recognised On Global Forex Trading (Market)
“The major question is not whether the Naira is recognized, but when it will be a currency that displays as much popularity as the USD or GBP. As of now the Naira was pegged at N200 to the Dollar with expectations mounting that the Central Bank of Nigeria may implement a flexible rate of N285. While this may be the case, the ‘black market’ exchange displays a different picture with the Naira rate against the Dollar at $350. It should be kept in mind that the nation needs to work on a solid foundation before the Naira potential stabilizes and gains investor appetite. Once stability is achieved the local currency may appreciate as buyers are encouraged to invest in the hopes of a further appreciation in prices.

How to Help Naira Appreciate
“The Central Bank of Nigeria could have raised interest rates to bolster the value of the Naira while at the same time curbing inflation. Although an interest rate hike could have been the first logical step the Central Bank of Nigeria could have taken, this was forgone in the recent central bank meeting. While the major method discussed to help the Naira appreciate has been focused on diversification, this is not a method which could happen over-night. Agriculture, manufacturing and technology could be the key areas Nigeria could focus on, while agriculture has already displayed signs of diversification, the next steps could be the harmonization of the industry to embrace modern technology and yield results. Nigeria has fertile soils, so why not fortify agriculture? The foundation needed to elevate the productivity of farmers could be education as most may be using old methods to cultivate the land. When education is correct, then the sector could support exports and bridge the gap.

Harnessing Mining, Agric Sectors to Boost Exports
“The mining sector could produce gains for Nigeria if the infrastructure and foundations are worked upon. Although government revenues have diminished from the falling oil prices, the little revenues left could be invested towards mining and agriculture as a method of steering away from being heavily oil export dependent. If Nigeria attains the ability to export to other nations, then when talks of a Naira devaluation arise this could also benefit the nation further with export competitiveness boosting economic growth.

Distinguishing Factors Between Nigeria and Other Emerging Markets
“Although the decline in commodity prices has punished emerging markets including Nigeria, this nation does have some noticeable differences when compared to other markets. For instance, there are still concerns over China slowing growth but they are diversifying, aggressively investing in other economies and transitioning to being a service led economy. Focusing back on Nigeria, although the days of triple digits’ oil prices have long gone, the nation should focus on setting the right foundation for an extended period of low oil prices. Rather than importing the refined oil that is produced, why not work on the correct infrastructure to refine the oil and export the refined version?

Nigerian Stock Exchange Has Appreciated for Few Days Now
“A sense of relief dispersed across the Nigerian markets during trading last week following the growing expectations and subsequent announcement that the Central Bank of Nigeria would implement a flexi rate policy. The renewed risk appetite encouraged bullish investors to pile into riskier assets and this consequently send the Nigerian Stock Exchange higher. With hopes that the CBN has come back to reality as inflation spirals out of control, there are speculations that the central bank could take action in the future. While fears linger that the Nigerian economy could be heading towards a recession, the renewed optimism of a potential flexi rate policy has offered a foundation for the stock markets to temporarily rally. Investor confidence has received a welcome boost but stocks could be set to decline further in the future as fears of inflation and rising unemployment weigh on sentiment.

Investors Pulling Out of Nigeria (United Airlines, For Instance)
“The whole world is concerned that Nigeria’s economy is on the brink right now. Although, key interest rates were unexpectedly maintained at 12%, it is becoming quite clear that the extended declines in oil prices have left the CBN under immerse pressure to take action. Sentiment has also taken a hit from the rapidly declining government revenues, while diminishing oil production from renewed militancy has left nation on edge. So, anxiety lingers across the board and there could be a possibility that the delayed 2016 budget, which was only approved in May, could have exacerbated this unfavorable situation further. Therefore, investors would want to be cut napping when the economy crumbles in default. Most of them will come back when the situation stabilizes. Nigeria is still the biggest investors’ destination in Africa.

Situation of Nigerian Banks
“Transparency could be the first step towards saving the banks of Nigeria. Nothing should be hidden from the apex bank or investors because the moment people feel something is not right, it could raise alarms and will cause panic among the mass. Unfortunately, the banking system is shrouded in secrecy which may leave most investors anxious. For example, market participants are still awaiting further clarity about the $6 billion loan from China with most confused about what the loan will be used for. The government needs to communicate their actions better to the people because when there is transparency from the top, it trickles down to other areas.

The Effectiveness of Technology in Promoting Online Forex Trading
“Technology is instrumental in the drive for smart, efficient and proficient forex trading. This constant push to offer the best service and trading experience is driving innovation, leading to the creation of advanced trading platforms and increased execution speeds. At FXTM we have invested in our own Research & Development team to ensure that we offer cutting-edge and client-centric solutions, such as the ForexTime App, which launched in November last year, and provides real-time currency rates, insightful market analysis, and financial news on-the-go. Technological developments are also leading to the creation of new forex products and the growth of a lively online trading community, a key example being the increasingly popular social trading and copy trading programs. In response to this trend, earlier this year we launched FXTM Invest, our highly accurate and reliable copy trading program.

 


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Nigeria CommunicationsWeek believes that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. So since 2007, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and how they affect lives.

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E-Financial

IMF Warns of New Risks for Monetary Policy over $59Bn Crypto Inflows into Nigeria

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the rapid expansion of stablecoin usage in Nigeria could significantly weaken demand for the naira and reduce the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy.

IMF Warns of New Risks for Monetary Policy over $59Bn Crypto Inflows into Nigeria

This is coming as the country recorded about $59 billion in crypto-asset inflows between July 2023 and June 2024.

The IMF said in it’s report titled “Stablecoins in Nigeria: A Growing Cross-Border Channel,” that the growing adoption of dollar-pegged digital assets for payments, remittances, and savings reflects deeper macroeconomic pressures in Nigeria, including elevated inflation, foreign exchange scarcity, and persistent currency depreciation.

According to the Fund, these conditions have increased the attractiveness of stablecoins as both a store of value and a medium of exchange, particularly among individuals and businesses seeking stability amid exchange rate volatility.

The IMF warned that the widespread use of U.S. dollar-denominated stablecoins effectively represents a form of “digital dollarisation,” which could erode demand for the naira and weaken the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) ability to transmit monetary policy through interest rates and exchange rate interventions.

Nigeria remains one of the world’s most active digital asset markets, ranking second globally in Chainalysis’ 2024 Global Crypto Adoption Index and sixth in the 2025 edition.

The IMF further noted that the country accounts for nearly 60 per cent of stablecoin inflows into sub-Saharan Africa since 2019, underscoring its dominant role in regional crypto activity.

The report also highlighted the appeal of stablecoins in reducing transaction costs and improving the speed of cross-border payments.

However, the IMF cautioned that the increasing shift of payment activity from traditional banking systems to crypto exchanges and digital wallets may create regulatory blind spots.

It warned that such developments could complicate the monitoring of capital flows and increase exposure to illicit financial risks, including money laundering.

Despite these concerns, the Fund did not advocate restrictive measures. Instead, it called for a balanced policy approach that addresses the structural drivers of stablecoin adoption while strengthening oversight frameworks.

Key recommendations include maintaining macroeconomic stability to support the naira, enhancing regulatory clarity for stablecoin-related activities, and strengthening coordination between the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The IMF also urged improved transaction data collection through blockchain analytics and continued investment in efficient, regulated payment infrastructure.

The Fund noted that stablecoin growth is largely driven by inefficiencies in cross-border payment systems, stressing that policy efforts should focus on narrowing these gaps while ensuring emerging risks remain effectively contained.

 

 


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AI-Powered Loan Recovery Pilot Rakes in N69m for VeendHQ 

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VeendHQ has said that its AI-powered credit platform, Vida AI, helped recover N69 million from a N172.5 million portfolio of loans that were more than 90 days overdue, in a pilot that highlights the growing role of technology in loan recovery and portfolio management.

AI-Powered Loan Recovery Pilot Rakes in N69m for VeendHQ 

The result comes at a time when lenders are under increasing pressure to improve recovery outcomes while managing the cost, reputational risk, and operational burden associated with overdue loans.

For many credit providers, the challenge is no longer only how quickly loans can be approved, but how effectively repayment can be monitored and delinquent loans can be recovered after disbursement.

According to VeendHQ, the pilot delivered a 40 percent recovery rate on the overdue loan portfolio.

The company said the result significantly outperformed traditional recovery benchmarks, where a five percent recovery rate on a similar loan book would amount to about N8.6 million.

VeendHQ said the pilot demonstrates how Vida AI can support lenders beyond credit assessment, extending into repayment monitoring, collections, and recovery.

“Credit access is only one side of lending. The bigger challenge for many lenders is what happens after disbursement,” said Olufemi Olanipekun, co-founder and CEO of VeendHQ.

“Vida AI helps lenders make smarter decisions across the credit lifecycle, from approval to repayment and recovery.”

VeendHQ, a Nigerian fintech company building digital credit infrastructure, developed Vida AI as an artificial intelligence-powered platform for lenders, merchants, and financial institutions.

The platform supports credit assessment, identity verification, repayment collections, and loan management workflows.

With the recovery pilot, the company is positioning Vida AI beyond loan origination, as a tool for lenders seeking to improve repayment performance and manage overdue portfolios more efficiently.

Delinquent loans remain a major cash-flow challenge for lenders.

Once loans exceed 60 to 90 days past due, recovery becomes more difficult, expensive, and unpredictable. Traditional approaches such as manual calls, recovery agents, and legal escalation often increase costs without significantly improving recovery rates.

VeendHQ said Vida AI’s recovery workflow enables lenders to upload overdue loan records, verify borrower information, assess repayment capacity, and trigger automated recovery actions.

This gives lenders better visibility after disbursement and allows recovery teams to prioritize overdue portfolios more effectively.

“If lenders cannot recover efficiently, they become more conservative with lending. That affects consumers, small businesses, and the wider credit market,” Olanipekun said.

“Better recovery infrastructure gives lenders more confidence to lend, manage risk, and keep credit flowing.”

The company said the recovery use case is especially relevant for banks, microfinance institutions, digital lenders, cooperatives, and merchants managing loans that are 60 to 180 days past due.

It added that it plans to deepen Vida AI’s recovery capabilities for credit providers seeking to improve recovery performance without relying solely on manual methods.

“As lending expands across Nigeria and Africa, recovery infrastructure is becoming as critical as origination,” Olanipekun said. “Tools that improve both will define which lenders can scale sustainably.”

The pilot, VeendHQ says, points to a broader shift in the credit market: approval speed alone is no longer enough. Increasingly, lenders will be defined by how effectively they monitor repayment, recover overdue loans, and manage portfolio risk over time.

 

 


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CBN Orders Banks, Fintechs to Host Payment Data Locally

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The Central Bank of Nigeria has directed banks, fintech firms, and other payment service providers to store payment transaction data generated within the country on local servers from January 1, 2027, as part of new measures to strengthen oversight of the fast-growing digital payments ecosystem.

CBN Orders Banks, Fintechs to Host Payment Data Locally

 

The directive was contained in a circular issued by the Payments System Supervision Department of the CBN on Monday and addressed to deposit money banks, microfinance banks, mobile money operators, switching and processing companies, payment terminal service providers, payment solution service providers, super agents and other licensed operators in the payments industry.

The circular, signed by the Director of the Payments System Supervision Department, Rakiya Yusuf, also introduced new market structure rules, beneficial ownership disclosure requirements and systemic oversight measures for payment service operators.

According to the apex bank, the reforms became necessary following the rapid expansion of electronic payments and digital financial services across the country.

The CBN said it had observed “significant structural developments within the Nigerian Payments ecosystem, characterised by rapid growth in electronic payments, increasing adoption of digital financial services, and the emergence of operators with substantial market presence across key payment activities.”

It noted that while the growth had improved innovation, efficiency and financial inclusion, it had also created concerns around market concentration, operational dependence, ownership transparency and the storage of critical payments data.

To address these concerns, the regulator ordered all financial institutions facilitating payments in Nigeria to ensure that transaction data generated within the country are stored domestically.

The circular stated, “All Financial Institutions and participants facilitating payments within Nigeria shall ensure that payments transaction data generated within Nigeria are stored and managed in Nigeria in accordance with data protection laws and regulations applicable in Nigeria.”

It added that “all affected Financial Institutions shall fully comply with this requirement effective January 1, 2027.”

The move is expected to strengthen regulatory oversight, enhance data sovereignty and ensure that sensitive payment information remains within Nigeria’s jurisdiction.

It also aligns with broader efforts by regulators globally to localise critical financial data and reduce reliance on offshore infrastructure.

Beyond data localisation, the CBN ordered banks, payment service providers and other financial institutions with digital payment operations to disclose the ultimate beneficial ownership of significant shareholders.

According to the circular, institutions must maintain accurate and up-to-date records of their ultimate beneficial owners and make such information available to the apex bank upon request.

The regulator said the disclosure requirement must comply with existing anti-money laundering, counter-terrorism financing and counter-proliferation financing regulations.

The directive builds on previous CBN efforts to strengthen beneficial ownership transparency as part of wider measures to combat money laundering and illicit financial flows in the financial system.

The central bank also introduced fresh competition rules aimed at limiting excessive market dominance in the payments industry.

Under the new framework, any financial institution that controls more than 25 per cent of the card-issuing market in a rolling 12-month period will not be allowed to hold more than 15 per cent of the merchant-acquiring market during the same period.

Similarly, operators with more than 25 per cent market share in merchant acquiring activities will be restricted to a maximum of 15 per cent market share in card issuing activities.

Merchant acquiring refers to processing card payments on behalf of merchants, while card issuing involves providing payment cards to customers.

The CBN said all regulated entities would be required to submit monthly market share returns based on prescribed templates and timelines.

It further directed affected institutions to take the necessary measures to achieve full compliance with the market structure requirements by December 31, 2026.

The apex bank said the new measures were designed to “improve transparency through beneficial ownership disclosure, address concentration risk, promote a fair, competitive, and resilient payments ecosystem.”

According to the regulator, the reforms are also intended to “safeguard the integrity of the Nigerian payments system and ensure the localisation of payments transaction data within Nigeria.”

The CBN warned that it would closely monitor compliance and impose sanctions where necessary.

“The CBN shall monitor compliance with the provisions of this Circular and may, where necessary, impose supervisory sanctions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and guidelines,” the circular stated.

The latest directive comes amid a rapid expansion of Nigeria’s digital payments industry, with electronic transactions reaching record levels and regulators increasing oversight of banks, fintech firms and other payment operators to address operational, cybersecurity and systemic risks.


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