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Markets Brace Ahead of Jackson Hole

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Global stocks traded lackluster this week with most major markets oscillating between losses and gains as anxiety ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole gathering forced investors to remain on the fence.

Asian stocks displayed signs of weakness on Friday led by a decline in Japanese shares as investors avoided risk before the Yellen speech. European markets were heavily pressured by slumping healthcare stocks on Thursday with further declines expected if Asia’s bearish contagion entices sellers to attack.

The ongoing uncertainty over US rate hike timings and depressed oil prices have already left Wall Street vulnerable to steep losses. Asia, Europe, and America could be painted in red on Friday if the horrible cocktail of falling oil, ongoing concerns over the global economy and pre Jackson Hole jitters encourages investors to scatter from riskier assets.

The stock market rally may be running out of steam with the events of today potentially providing a foundation for bears to install repeated rounds of selling. Oil prices remain heavily pressured by the oversupply concerns while the Fed divide has somewhat weighed heavily on global sentiment.

The ingredients for a bear market are visible and it could take an unexpected catalyst for stocks to start sliding down lower. Today’s Jackson Hole gathering could be quite critical, with expectations heightened over if Yellen will provide clarity on when the Fed may break the trend of central bank caution. If there is a further disconnect between markets and the Fed then jitter and risk aversion could leave stocks vulnerable to heavy losses.

Dollar on standby as Yellen speech looms
The Dollar remains on standby ahead of today’s heavily anticipated Jackson Hole gathering where Federal Reserve Janet Chair Yellen will deliver her keynote speech which could provide investors some clarity on US rate hike timings. A divided Fed this month has created a cloud of uncertainty over when the US rates will be hiked while the growing disconnect between the markets and central bank continues to weigh heavily on sentiment.

There is a strong possibility that Yellen attempts to heighten hopes over the Fed raising US rates at least once this year but the question is if market participants are prepared to listen.

Although inflation remains a dilemma in the US, overall domestic data still points to stability which could provide a compelling reason for there to be a live meeting to raise US rates in December.

A clear concise hawkish speech from Yellen could be the catalyst needed to dispel this extended period of uncertainty consequently strengthening the Dollar.

UK Q2 GDP in focus
Sterling traded lower on Thursday with the GBPUSD sinking towards 1.3170 as the persistent post-Brexit uncertainty haunted investor attraction towards the currency. Pound sensitivity could be a new theme moving forward with any positive data post-Brexit encouraging bullish investors to install heavy rounds of buying.

Although Sterling bulls were offered a lifeline from last week’s string of positive data which questioned the Brexit scare, more time may be needed to truly gauge the ramifications of Brexit to the UK. Investors may direct their attention towards the revised second quarter GDP release for the UK economy which could offer some clarity on how the nation is faring in a period of global uncertainty.

While most expect Q2 GDP to be 0.6%, a result which fails to meet expectations could spark speculations of the Bank of England cutting UK rates to near zero consequently leaving the Sterling open to losses.

WTI Oil Remains Pressured
WTI Oil was pressured further on Friday with prices trading towards $47 after comments from Saudi energy minister quelled expectations of a production freeze which rekindled concerns over the ongoing oversupply.

Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih stated that any significant intervention in the market may not be necessary other than to allow the forces of supply and demand to find an equilibrium price and such questioned the relevance of the informal meeting in September.

The visible battle of words has elevated WTI to shocking levels with inflated expectations over a production freeze creating speculative boosts in oil prices. With crude oil stockpiles on the rise and rig counts rising incessantly, questions must be asked about the sustainability of the current oil rally.

OPEC has repeatedly exploited the oil prices sensitivity to prop up oil prices and although this is commendable such may come at a heavy price. If the informal meeting in September concludes without a production freeze deal, not only will the cartel’s credibility take a blow but oil could be vulnerable to heavy losses. From a technical standpoint, a breakdown below $46 could open a path towards $44.

Commodity Spotlight – Gold
Gold declined further on Thursday hitting fresh four-week lows at $1318 following the positive US Core durable goods report which dispelled some concerns over the health of the US economy consequently strengthening the Dollar.

This yellow metal has been under pressure this week with prices edging lower as the cloud of uncertainty over the Fed raising US rates in 2016 forces anxious investors to offload their bullish bets. With price sensitivity set to intensify today ahead of Yellen’s speech, Gold could be in store for another chaotic roller coaster ride.

A hawkish Yellen who provides the clarity investors have long sought over the future of a US rate hike could leave Gold open to heavy losses. On the other hand, if investors are left empty handed with the disconnect growing between the markets and Fed then Gold could be provided a lifeline. From a technical standpoint, bulls are pressured and need to keep above $1315 to remain in control.

 

 

    


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E-Financial

Ecobank Profit Jumps 29 Percent to N950Bn

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Ecobank Transnational Incorporated has reported a 29 per cent rise in profit after tax to N950.0bn for the financial year ended December 31, 2025, driven by growth in interest income and non-interest revenue.

Ecobank Profit Jumps 29 Percent to N950Bn

This was indicated in the Condensed Consolidated Unaudited Financial Statements for the year ended December 2025 filed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited on Friday.

According to the report, the pan-African banking group’s gross earnings rose 14 per cent to N4.82tn, while total revenue increased 18 per cent to N3.67tn.

Profit before tax climbed 30 per cent to N1.28tn, up from N986.7bn in 2024. Operating profit before impairment charges rose 29 per cent to N1.89tn.

In the period under review, net interest income grew 22 per cent year on year to N2.14tn, supported by a 15 per cent increase in interest income to N3.18tn.

Interest expense rose modestly by four per cent to N1.04tn.

Non-interest revenue also strengthened, rising 13 per cent to N1.53tn, buoyed by a 17 per cent increase in fee and commission income to N1.03tn, and a 14 per cent growth in trading income and foreign exchange gains to N559.36bn.

However, other operating income declined 22 per cent to N68.6bn, while net losses on investment securities widened to N10.98bn.

Impairment charges on financial assets rose 28 per cent to N613.26bn, reflecting higher credit risk provisioning during the period.

Despite this, operating profit after impairment increased 30 per cent to N1.28tn.

Total profit stood at N950.0bn, compared to N735.9bn in 2024. Total assets expanded 14 per cent to N49.44tn, up from N43.30tn in 2024.

Loans and advances to customers increased 11 per cent to N17.09tn, while deposits from customers rose 15 per cent to N36.45tn, reinforcing the bank’s funding base. Total equity strengthened significantly, rising 50 per cent to N4.17tn, driven largely by retained earnings growth.

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders stood at N2.91tn, up from N1.75tn. Total liabilities increased to N45.27tn, from N40.52tn in the previous year.

Ecobank operates in 34 African countries and several international financial centres, serving more than 32 million customers across consumer, commercial, corporate, and investment banking segments.


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Incentives alone won’t win over Africa’s next billion fintech users — Kuda MFB MD

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African fintechs hoping to sign up the continent’s next billion users will need to rethink the industry’s long-running growth playbook, according to Musty Mustapha, Managing Director of Kuda Microfinance Bank, who says cashbacks and incentives may drive downloads but rarely help build sustainable businesses.

Incentives alone won’t win over Africa’s next billion fintech users — Kuda MFB MD

Kuda MFB MD

Speaking at a fintech panel discussion on scaling digital financial services across Africa at Tech Revolution Africa, a gathering of tech leaders, investors, operators, and professionals which was held at Landmark Event Center on January 31, 2026, Mustapha objected to what he described as the “growth at all costs” culture which has defined much of African fintech so far. While incentives can quickly inflate user numbers, he said they often fail to create the kind of trust and consistent usage that keeps customers long term.

“It is easy to buy users,” he said. “But if you grow without creating real value, you’re only solving for today’s numbers and ignoring whether the business survives tomorrow.”

His comments come at a time when many startups are under pressure to demonstrate stronger unit economics as venture funding tightens and investors shift attention from rapid acquisition to profitability and retention. In that environment, Mustapha argues that reliability, not marketing spend, will determine which fintechs endure.

Contrary to common assumptions, he said African consumers are not resistant to technology but cautious, shaped by years of unreliable services and weak infrastructure. Products that work seamlessly elsewhere often struggle locally because they fail to account for that trust deficit.

“They’re not digitally naïve,” he said. “They’ve just operated in low-trust environments. If something fails even once or twice, you lose them.”

That focus on trust has influenced how Kuda Microfinance Bank has approached its growth. Launched in 2019 as a digital-first bank, it expanded from roughly 100,000 customers within its first year to nearly 300,000 the next, before surging past 2 million customers in 2021. Today, the microfinance bank serves more than 7 million Nigerians, Mustapha said, describing the journey as less predictable than the numbers suggest.

“The reality is, you can’t forecast scale neatly,” he said. “You can wake up and suddenly have a huge spike in users. If your systems and people aren’t ready, you crumble.”

In his view, the strain on a fintech typically shows up first behind the scenes, not on its app. As volume increases, back-office functions such as reconciliation, chargebacks and customer support can quickly become chokepoints, eroding the trust that fintechs are trying to build. Founders, he said, often underestimate these operational demands in the early days while prioritising product development.

“Anything you don’t pay attention to in your first six months will come back to hurt you at scale,” he said.

External constraints add more complexity. Payment rails, power supply, and connectivity remain outside the control of most fintechs, making outages and delays inevitable. Rather than trying to outspend those limitations, Mustapha said companies must design around them by building redundancies and multiple pathways for critical services.

“You don’t assume perfection,” he said. “If one channel fails, there must be another. That’s how you stay reliable.”

As traditional banks, telcos, and startups increasingly compete for the same mass-market customers, Mustapha expects the winners to combine the strengths of each group — the capital base of banks, the distribution reach of telcos, and the speed of fintechs. But regardless of the model that dominates, he believes the fundamentals will remain the same.

For millions of first-time or underserved users, the deciding factor is simple: whether the service works every time.

“There’s this idea that the average customer can’t use sophisticated products,” he said. “That’s not the issue. What they want is something they can trust.”

As fintech chases its next phase of growth, trust, rather than incentives, may prove to be the sector’s most valuable currency.


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Majority of Nigerians do not Trust Govt with Tax Revenue – SBM

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Majority Nigerians do not trust the government to properly utilise their tax payments for good use, according to a survey by SBM Intelligence across nine cities.

Majority of Nigerians do not Trust Govt with Tax Revenue – SBM

The survey highlighted why recent tax reforms have triggered widespread anxiety and resistance.

“Survey data from 200 respondents across nine cities indicate that 68.5 percent of Nigerians completely distrust the government’s use of tax revenues, whereas only 27.5 percent view the reforms as beneficial to the country, ” SBM intelligence said in its recent report titled Taxing Patience.

Nigeria’s 2025 Tax Reform Acts took effect in January, introducing the most comprehensive overhaul of the tax framework in decades. The reform has created more awareness among Nigerians than ever before, increasing their further distrust in the government’s use of tax revenues.

The distrust reflects years of poor service delivery and weak accountability, shaping public doubt toward the new tax system despite assurances that the reforms are designed to ease burdens and improve fairness.

“In the past, people avoided tax because they felt the government wouldn’t provide basic amenities,” businessday quoted Okanlawon Hakeem, a Lagos-based businessman, as saying.

“You drill boreholes yourself, pay for public transport yourself, and sometimes fix your local road yourself. So, you ask yourself what the government is doing with the tax money.”

The SBM Intelligence report noted that access to reliable electricity, improved security and better roads were the clearest signals that would make tax compliance worthwhile.

“46 percent of participants identified improvements in roads and security as their primary motivation for tax compliance,” SBM Intelligence noted, explaining that service delivery, rather than enforcement alone, is likely to shape taxpayer behaviour.

Government officials have defended the changes as necessary to improve public finances and reduce Nigeria’s dependence on oil revenue, pointing to the country’s historically low tax-to-GDP ratio.

With a tax-to-GDP ratio of less than 10 percent, Nigeria has lagged behind regional peers such as Ghana and Kenya. Taiwo Oyedele, chairman presidential fiscal policy and tax committee, hopes the reforms will lift the ratio toward 18 percent over the medium term.

Public sentiment, however, has not moved in step with these fiscal ambitions. According to the report, only 27.5 percent of people believe that the new tax laws are good for the country.

The report also suggests that greater awareness of the reforms often coincides with stronger skepticism rather than acceptance.

Distrust cuts across regions and occupations but is especially pronounced in major commercial centres.

The report mentioned that people in Lagos and parts of the Northeast have the strongest resistance and protest sentiment, reflecting concerns about enforcement, fairness and legislative integrity.

In its Year Ahead 2026 outlook, SBM Intelligence projects that protests are likely as the real impact of the new framework becomes clearer. The report points to the June 2024 youth-led protests in Kenya, which resulted in a reversal of the policy.

In Nigeria, where inflation is only just beginning to show signs of easing, the tolerance for perceived government excesses, including lavish convoys and budget padding, is at an all-time low.

Business owners, traders and informal workers expressed particular unease, fearing the reforms could deepen the problem of double taxation. Many worry that government levies will exist alongside rather than replace the fees already collected by unions and non-state actors.

“ Nearly a third of business respondents said they expect to pay both official taxes and union fees,” the report stated.

For informal workers such as market traders, drivers and artisans, this fear is grounded in experience. Many already make daily payments to unions or associations, often under pressure.

Without a clear plan to eliminate these parallel charges, new government taxes are widely viewed as an additional burden rather than a simplification of the system.

In Lagos, Kano and Onitsha, constant electricity emerged as the strongest trigger for compliance. In Abuja, Port Harcourt and Bauchi, respondents prioritized roads and security. Across cities, the message was consistent: willingness to pay is conditional on visible outcomes.

Analysts warn that without clear improvements in service delivery, stronger enforcement could harden resistance rather than improve compliance.

The report stated that without rapid, visible improvements in public services, the government risks collecting more money while winning.


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