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Bloomberg Insight: PMI Suggests Economy Hasn’t Reached Bottom Yet

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The renewed decline in oil production and a sliding Purchasing Managers Index suggests that the Nigerian economy has not yet reached a trough, even after a deeper GDP contraction in the second quarter.

A sharper negative contribution from hydrocarbon production and further drag on the service sector from weak domestic demand are likely to push the 3Q GDP reading further into the red. Nigeria’s 2Q GDP numbers, released on Aug. 31, confirmed the ongoing contraction of the economy.

A 2.1% year-over-year drop in activity pointed to a deepening recession, following the 0.4% decline in 1Q. All sectors of the economy appear to be struggling from the sharp reduction in oil revenue and the ensuing shortage of foreign exchange and fuel.

The drop in hydrocarbon revenue has been exacerbated by continued attacks cutting oil output, even with Niger Delta militants entering into negotiations with the government in July.

Repairs to previously bombed pipelines, such as the Forcados one operated by Shell that is due to return to production in mid-September, could lift oil production in 4Q. Still, output is unlikely to return to previous levels of 2 million barrels per day this year.

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A higher base in 3Q15 than in 2Q15 could make the negative contribution to real GDP growth from the crude oil and natural gas sector even more significant in 3Q.

Output in that part of the economy contracted by 17.4% year over year in 2Q and 1.9% in 1Q. While it reduced annual real GDP growth by 1.7 percentage points in 2Q, that drag could increase to more than 3.0 percentage points in 3Q due to previously mentioned base effects, as oil production has remained curtailed by militant attacks.

The non-oil sector declined by a more moderate 0.38% year over year in 2Q compared with a 0.18% contraction in 1Q. An improved, positive contribution from agriculture — 1.0 percentage point in 2Q versus 0.6 in 1Q, as year-over-year growth accelerated to 4.5% from 3.0% — was not sufficient to offset shrinking output in the industrial and services sectors.

The contraction in manufacturing and electricity output was actually milder than in 1Q, but the services sector contracted by 1.3% compared with a 0.8% expansion in 1Q, subtracting 0.7 percentage point from headline GDP growth.

With annual inflation accelerating to 17.1% in July, compared with 9.2% the same month last year, the service sector is most likely suffering from weaker demand in 3Q. That could push its contribution to economic growth further into the negative range.

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Indeed, the drop in the PMI in August to a record-low 46.3 from 48.8 in July should further damp expectations for an improved GDP reading in 3Q.

While the Nigeria PMI was introduced only in January 2014, the drop from readings of 52-55 in mid-2015 tracks with the shift into negative year-over-year GDP growth rates.

The dive further below 50 — the line separating expansion from contraction — indicates that the decline in economic activity is accelerating, rather than easing.

This, together with the deeper drag from the oil and gas sector, is likely to see real GDP growth dip further in 3Q. It should also strengthen expectations for a full-year contraction in economic activity this year.

 

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E-Financial

NDIC Urges Youths to Shun Ponzi Schemes, Embrace Savings

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has urged youths to shun investment scams and  embrace the habit of saving.

NDIC Urges Youths to Shun Ponzi Schemes, Embrace Savings

NDIC said that for a nation to be prosperous, its citizens must learn to build legitimate wealth through savings and then advance to investment.

Mr Adegbenga Fagbuyi, assistant director, Communication and Corporate Affairs, NDIC, made the remarks while addressing students of Lagelu Grammar School, Ibadan, during the 2026 Financial Literacy Day.

Delivering his speech on “Smart Money,” Fagbuyi highlighted the importance of having basic knowledge of the financial system, making sound financial decisions, understanding the benefits of saving in banks, setting financial goals, maintaining financial discipline, and avoiding Ponzi schemes that promise high returns.

Fagbuyi said youths are among the major targets of the government’s financial inclusion drive, adding that the Financial Literacy Day formed part of activities marking Global Money Week, adopted by the Bankers’ Committee in Nigeria as a platform for mentoring youths on savings and investment.

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He said, “The government wants everybody to be participants in the financial sector. But how can you be a participant if you don’t know how to save? How can you be a participant if you cannot convert your savings into an investment? So, most importantly, youths are one of the major targets of the financial inclusion drive of the government.”

Fagbuyi described financial inclusion as bringing everybody into the financial safety net by encouraging participation in banking, insurance, pensions, and the capital market.

He stressed that the government does not want youths to become adults who lack knowledge of safe banking practices, insurance, and the capital market.

“Government does not want them to grow old, to become adults who do not know about savings, safe banking habits, insurance, and the capital market. That is why we go to schools to sensitise students to all these basic financial matters, particularly savings, so that our students can begin to learn to save, learn credible investment habits through which they can be making legitimate income.

“We also educate them about the deposit insurance system administered by NDIC. When you save in banks, the banks are supervised and regulated. And if eventually they fail, you will not lose your money. That is what NDIC does,” Fagbuyi said.

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He revealed that the sensitisation programme, which started about 10 years ago and is organised by the Bankers’ Committee, comprising the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation, and all the deposit money banks in Nigeria, has been held across states nationwide.

He said, “Minimum, every year, we go to 10 states. And we normally sensitise 200 students in each school. So this year, that means we are targeting 2,000 students.”

Fagbuyi, however, said the objective of the programme is not to cover all schools across the country but to set a standard for state governments and schools to replicate.

“But I must emphasise that the objective is not to cover all schools. It is to set a standard for state governments and for schools to replicate. You agree with me that we cannot be everywhere.

“But as a partner, as a key stakeholder in the financial inclusion drive of the federal government, we go to states to showcase what the government’s intention, so that states and schools can replicate. So it is on this note that we always urge states’ Ministries of Education, Science and Technology to replicate and expand these programmes across their respective states.”

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In his address, Olusegun Olayiwola, Oyo State Commissioner for Education, Science and Technology, represented by Alhaji Lukuman Kareem, permanent secretary, Education Inspectorate, Ibadan North, commended the NDIC for selecting a school in Ibadan for the financial literacy sensitisation programme.

He noted that such initiatives must go beyond the classroom to shape young minds, adding that children cannot achieve expected outcomes unless they are properly guided.

“That’s why we significantly appreciate the efforts of the Bankers’ Committee, NDIC, the Central Bank of Nigeria, and all other members for this,” he said.

The commissioner charged the students to take the lessons seriously, noting that opportunities lost may not be easily regained. He also advised the NDIC to expand the programme to include students from neighbouring schools in future editions to maximise its impact without additional transportation costs.

Additionally, Olayiwola urged teachers to cascade the training to other students, who should in turn enlighten their siblings at home.

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NRS Issues July 31 Deadline for e-Invoicing Compliance

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Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has set a July 31 deadline for all large taxpayers to wholly adopt the national e-invoicing and electronic fiscal system (EFS)- called digital exchange of structured invoice data between a supplier and a buyer.

NRS Issues July 31 Deadline for e-Invoicing Compliance

This is sequel to a public notice issued by NRS on February 17, 2026 on the implementation timeline and the mandatory adoption of the national e-invoicing and EFS otherwise known as the Merchant Buyer Solution (MBS).

Zacch Adedeji, chairman, NRS, personally signed the public notice informing all large taxpayers of the need to complete the onboarding, integration, testing, and commencement of invoice transmission to the NRS e-invoicing platform in accordance with the prescribed implementation framework.

According to a statement issued on Sunday by Dare Adekanmbi, special adviser on Media to the chairman, “NRS has already commenced compliance monitoring activities in order to assess the level of adherence to the e-invoicing mandate among large taxpayers.

“Consequently, any defaulting member may be subjected to appropriate regulatory and enforcement actions in accordance with the provisions of the relevant tax laws and regulations.

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“Affected taxpayers are, therefore, advised to urgently conclude all outstanding onboarding and integration activities and commence invoice transmission before the compliance deadline.

“The NRS appreciates the cooperation of taxpayers and remains committed to providing the necessary support to ensure the successful implementation of the national e-invoicing regime,” the notice said.

Large taxpayers are companies with gross turnover of N5 billion and above.

As of the first quarter of this year, over 1,000 companies had complied.

Compliance with the e-invoicing and Electronic Fiscal System covers the completion of onboarding on the NRS Merchant Buyer Solution (MBS) and successful integration of taxpayer systems through approved Access Point Providers (APPs) and/or systems Integrators (SIs).

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Others are completion of all required validation and testing activities; active transmission of invoices to the NRS e-invoicing platform in line with approved standards and guidelines; and ensuring the receipt of only compliant e-invoices with valid Invoice Reference Number (RIN) from suppliers.

 

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Access Holdings Sells 7.44% Stake in Ghana Unit

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Access Holdings Plc has completed the sale of a 7.44% stake in its Ghanaian subsidiary, a move believe is tied to a Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) rule capping how much local banks can hold in foreign units.

This was disclosed in a filing with the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) recently, which was obtained by our reporter over the weekend.

The corporate disclosure signed by the Company Secretary, Helen De Cardi Nelson, Access Bank (Ghana) Plc, stated that the outcome of the transaction reflects continued investor interest in Access Bank (Ghana) Plc and confidence in the long-term prospects of the Bank.

According to the release, the sale attracted strong participation from a well-diversified pool of investors, including pension funds, institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals.

Access Bank (Ghana) Plc, listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange, disclosed that its parent, Access Bank Plc, sold 12,085,318 ordinary shares representing 7.44% of the unit’s issued shares on July 15, 2026.

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The sale went through the Ghana Stock Exchange with regulatory clearance, including a no-objection from the Bank of Ghana.

Buyers included pension funds, institutional investors, and high-net-worth individuals. IC Securities (Ghana) Ltd acted as adviser and executing broker.

Commenting on the deal, Managing Director of Access Bank (Ghana), Ms. Pearl Nkrumah, said the transaction deepens local ownership and liquidity in the bank’s shares, and keeps management focused on turning its scale into value for stakeholders.

Before the sale, Access Bank Plc held 93.40% of Access Bank Ghana, with the remaining 6.60% already in the hands of other shareholders from the unit’s GSE listing.

Stake sold: 7.44%; Estimated holding after the sale: 85.96%; Public and other investors: approximately 14.04%

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Access Holdings therefore retains firm majority control of its Ghanaian unit; this is a partial dilution, not an exit.

 

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