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Bloomberg Insight: PMI Suggests Economy Hasn’t Reached Bottom Yet

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The renewed decline in oil production and a sliding Purchasing Managers Index suggests that the Nigerian economy has not yet reached a trough, even after a deeper GDP contraction in the second quarter.

A sharper negative contribution from hydrocarbon production and further drag on the service sector from weak domestic demand are likely to push the 3Q GDP reading further into the red. Nigeria’s 2Q GDP numbers, released on Aug. 31, confirmed the ongoing contraction of the economy.

A 2.1% year-over-year drop in activity pointed to a deepening recession, following the 0.4% decline in 1Q. All sectors of the economy appear to be struggling from the sharp reduction in oil revenue and the ensuing shortage of foreign exchange and fuel.

The drop in hydrocarbon revenue has been exacerbated by continued attacks cutting oil output, even with Niger Delta militants entering into negotiations with the government in July.

Repairs to previously bombed pipelines, such as the Forcados one operated by Shell that is due to return to production in mid-September, could lift oil production in 4Q. Still, output is unlikely to return to previous levels of 2 million barrels per day this year.

A higher base in 3Q15 than in 2Q15 could make the negative contribution to real GDP growth from the crude oil and natural gas sector even more significant in 3Q.

Output in that part of the economy contracted by 17.4% year over year in 2Q and 1.9% in 1Q. While it reduced annual real GDP growth by 1.7 percentage points in 2Q, that drag could increase to more than 3.0 percentage points in 3Q due to previously mentioned base effects, as oil production has remained curtailed by militant attacks.

The non-oil sector declined by a more moderate 0.38% year over year in 2Q compared with a 0.18% contraction in 1Q. An improved, positive contribution from agriculture — 1.0 percentage point in 2Q versus 0.6 in 1Q, as year-over-year growth accelerated to 4.5% from 3.0% — was not sufficient to offset shrinking output in the industrial and services sectors.

The contraction in manufacturing and electricity output was actually milder than in 1Q, but the services sector contracted by 1.3% compared with a 0.8% expansion in 1Q, subtracting 0.7 percentage point from headline GDP growth.

With annual inflation accelerating to 17.1% in July, compared with 9.2% the same month last year, the service sector is most likely suffering from weaker demand in 3Q. That could push its contribution to economic growth further into the negative range.

Indeed, the drop in the PMI in August to a record-low 46.3 from 48.8 in July should further damp expectations for an improved GDP reading in 3Q.

While the Nigeria PMI was introduced only in January 2014, the drop from readings of 52-55 in mid-2015 tracks with the shift into negative year-over-year GDP growth rates.

The dive further below 50 — the line separating expansion from contraction — indicates that the decline in economic activity is accelerating, rather than easing.

This, together with the deeper drag from the oil and gas sector, is likely to see real GDP growth dip further in 3Q. It should also strengthen expectations for a full-year contraction in economic activity this year.

 

 


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E-Financial

CBN Wins Central Bank of the Year Title @13th Global Awards

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been named Central Bank of the Year 2026 by an awards committee in London.

 CBN Wins Central Bank of the Year Title @13th Global Awards

The award recognises the bank’s major reforms that helped stabilise Nigeria’s economy and improve investor confidence.

The award is part of the 13th annual Central Banking Awards. It highlights how the CBN helped turn around Nigeria’s economy, which was close to crisis in 2023.

At that time, Nigeria faced serious problems such as high inflation, a weak currency, low foreign reserves, and about $7 billion in unpaid foreign exchange obligations.

There was also a big gap between official and black-market exchange rates.

After Olayemi Cardoso was appointed governor in October 2023 by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the CBN introduced strong reforms. These reforms focused on proper monetary policies, transparency, and market-based systems.

One major change was in the foreign exchange system.

The CBN removed multiple exchange rates and introduced a “willing-buyer, willing-seller” system. This made the market more transparent and reduced manipulation.

The bank also cleared old foreign exchange debts owed to sectors like aviation and manufacturing.

This helped restore trust in the economy. By late 2025, the gap between official and black-market exchange rates dropped to less than 2%.

Nigeria’s foreign reserves also improved, rising to $46.7 billion by November 2025  the highest level in almost seven years.

This was due to better foreign exchange inflows, stronger exports, and renewed investor confidence.

The International Monetary Fund praised these reforms, saying they improved the foreign exchange market and made pricing more reliable.

Inflation, which peaked at 34.8% in December 2024, dropped to 15.1% by January 2026. The CBN achieved this by raising interest rates and carefully managing the economy.

The bank also improved its internal operations. It stopped some programmes that were increasing money supply and causing inflation.

It strengthened its systems, improved compliance, and introduced digital tools, including artificial intelligence.

In the banking sector, the CBN introduced new rules requiring banks to increase their capital. This is expected to make the financial system stronger.

Nigeria also improved its fight against financial crimes. In 2025, the country was removed from a global watchlist for money laundering after improving its monitoring systems.

These reforms boosted Nigeria’s global image. Credit rating agencies upgraded the country’s outlook, and investor interest increased. Nigeria’s 2025 Eurobond attracted more than five times the expected subscriptions.

Although progress has been made, the CBN says challenges still remain, such as maintaining low inflation and completing banking reforms.

Overall, the award shows that Nigeria is regaining its position in the global financial system, thanks to strong policies and reforms by the CBN.


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Providus Bank Fully Meets CBN Capital Requirement, Sets Record Straight

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Providus Bank Limited has dispelled media reports over its compliance with regulatory capital requirements, confirming that it has successfully met and exceeded the recapitalisation threshold set by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

In a statement, the bank clarified that under the CBN’s recapitalisation framework, regional commercial banks are mandated to maintain a minimum capital base of N50 billion, stating unequivocally that it achieved this benchmark as far back as January 2025 and has since strengthened its financial standing.

According to the bank, its current paid-up capital stands at N65 billion, significantly above the regulatory minimum, underscoring its resilience and commitment to sound financial management.

The bank noted that this strong capital position places it in good stead to support its growth strategy and continue delivering value to customers and stakeholders.

Providus Bank emphasied that any suggestion implying non-compliance with the CBN’s recapitalisation requirement was inaccurate and does not reflect its current regulatory status.

The bank reiterated its dedication to maintaining robust governance standards and aligning with all prudential guidelines set by the apex regulator.

It explained: Providus Bank Limited notes recent media reports regarding the recapitalisation status of certain banks and considers it important to provide factual clarification as it relates to the Bank. Under the CBN recapitalisation framework, regional commercial banks are required to maintain a minimum capital base of N50 billion.

“Providus Bank confirms that it had met its capital requirement since January 2025 and currently has a capital base of N65 billiom which is in excess of its capital requirement.

Accordingly, any suggestion that Providus Bank has not met the applicable recapitalisation threshold is not consistent with its current regulatory standing.”

The Olayemi Cardoso-led Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had, on March 28, 2024, announced a two-year bank recapitalisation exercise which commenced on April 1, 2024.

The 24-month timeline for compliance ends on March 31, 2026. The upward capital revision is expected to ensure that Nigerian banks have the capacity to take on bigger risks and stay afloat amid both domestic and external shocks.

Specifically, the recapitalisation exercise requires a minimum capital of N500 billion, N200 billion, and N50 billion for commercial banks with international, national, and regional licences, respectively.


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UBA UK, BII Sign Letter of Intent to Slash Africa’s $80Bn Trade Finance Gap

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United Bank for Africa (UK) Limited (“UBA UK”) and British International Investment plc (“BII”), the UK’s development finance institution and impact investor, today announced that they have signed a letter of intent to develop trade finance collaboration opportunities. The proposed initiative aims to expand access to trade and working capital facilities for businesses operating across Africa.

UBA UK, BII Sign Letter of Intent to Slash Africa’s $80bn Trade Finance Gap

L-r: West Africa Director and Head of Office Africa Coverage, BII West Africa, Benson Adenuga; Managing Director and Head of Africa, BII, Chris Chijiutomi; Lok Mishra, Chief Executive Officer, UBA UK, Loknath Mishra; Group Managing Director, United Bank for Africa (Plc) during the signing of letter of intent to develop trade finance collaboration opportunities.

Access to trade finance remains one of the most significant structural constraints on African trade. Businesses – particularly small and medium-sized enterprises – are frequently unable to secure letters of credit, guarantees, and supply chain finance on commercially viable terms, limiting their capacity to export and import competitively. This trade finance gap is estimated by the African Development Bank to be over USD 80 billion annually.

To help close this gap, UBA UK, the London subsidiary of UBA Group, Africa’s Global Bank, will leverage its deep relationships across the Group’s 20-country African network to originate and structure trade finance transactions. While BII, with a mandate to support productive, sustainable, and inclusive growth across Africa, can support transactions that might otherwise fall outside conventional commercial appetite.

Lok Mishra, Chief Executive Officer, UBA UK, said: “The signing of this letter with BII represents a landmark moment for UBA UK and for the UBA Group’s global ambitions. As the Group’s hub for Trade Operations, UBA UK is uniquely positioned to connect African businesses with the international financial system.

“Working alongside BII, we can extend that capability further — mobilising capital where it matters most and helping to close the trade finance gap that holds back so much African potential.”

Chris Chijiuitomi, Managing Director and Head of Africa, said: “British International Investment is committed to catalysing private sector growth across Africa, and trade finance is a critical enabler of that growth.

“We welcome the opportunity to collaborate with UBA Group, whose pan-African network and deep institutional relationships can help advance our ambition to expand access to trade and working capital finance, particularly in frontier markets.”

The announcement builds on growing momentum around intra-African trade facilitated by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which entered into force in 2021 and represents one of the world’s most ignificant trade integration initiatives.

Both institutions have identified the operationalisation of AfCFTA as a priority catalyst for a trade finance facility, with UBA UK’s network across major AfCFTA economies offering a basis for supporting businesses navigating the emerging continental market.

This also complements the UK Government’s broader engagement with African economic development, including commitments made at the UK-Africa Investment Summit, and reinforces the City of London’s role as a leading international finance centre for Africa-focused capital mobilisation.

Future cooperation remains subject to further assessment, due diligence and the completion of internal approvals by both parties.


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