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Reasons Naira May Hit N500 to $1 Before Year End- Otunuga

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM a keen follower of macroeconomic events, with a strong professional and academic background in finance, has once again predicted that certain external and internal factors may push the Nigeria’s currency vulnerability to dollar exchange rates even before the end of the year.

Well versed in the various factors affecting the currency and commodity markets, Otunuga, who was speaking Nigeria CommunicationsWeek recently in Lagos, said that depreciate in international oil price is principal among factors affecting the naira due to the mono-economic nature of the country.

He provides in-depth analysis on the global currency and commodity markets and isoften quoted by leading international media outlets such as: MarketWatch, CNBC, NASDAQ, Reuters, AFP, The Guardian and Yahoo.

Prior to joining FXTM, Otunuga spent two years as a research analyst with international currency broker FXCM, where he focused on technical and fundamental analysis of the global currency, commodity and stock markets.

Otunuga was also responsible for leading educational seminars for international and local high net worth individuals, and has published a series of educational articles on forex trading with City A.M.

Otunuga holds a BSc (hons) degree in Economics from the University of Essex, UK and an MSc in Finance from London School of Business and Finance, where he studied corporate finance, mergers & acquisitions and the role of international financial institutions.

Enjoy the chat:

When you heard, National Bureau of Statistics report that Nigeria’s economy has slide to recession, what first came to your mind?

“When I heard that the National Bureau of Statistics report that Nigeria’s economy has slip to recession, what first came to my mind was for extended period that oil price was down punished major oil-export dependent nations with Nigeria been a no exception.

“If we consider the fact that about 95% of export revenues and 70% of government revenue in Nigeria come from oil revenue, then you can understand why the nation has been under pressure.  So, what has happened to Nigeria is both external and internal.

“Looking at the external factors, Nigeria is heavily oil export dependent. At the same time, even though dollar is not the legal tender in Nigeria, it has strong grip on the economy. Therefore, when you consider the global oil market and the dollar issues, they combined to put Nigeria under pressure.

With Nigeria’s mid-term policies, how quick can we come from the present recession?

“Well, we have to look at this from the short term and long term. Just last week, the even the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) decided to maintain the interest rate at 14%, despite the Finance Minister was saying that higher interest rates can actually act as barrier to the growth in future. Now, the CBN, on the short term is looking at price stability. In the month of August, inflation has climbed to 17.6%.

“So, I think the CBN is trying to see how the economy will fare in the Months of September and October before taking action. So, referring to the question, I think, on the short term, what the CBN can do is stay on the fence and watch how the Nigerian economy performs.

“On the long term, we have to fix our minds that a step has been taking towards diversification to agriculture and building of infrastructure. If these things are put in place, Nigeria could be back within the next two to three years.

You predicted that if CBN continued its policy direction with regards dollar restrictions, Naira will suffer in the market. That prediction has come to pass, Now, what in your view should CBN do differently?

“Yes, I remember that prediction. When I made that prediction I said that if the CBN was to delay de-peg of the Naira it will become deplorable over the natural forces of the demand and supply where equilibrium forces.

“That is what has happened.  If you look at the Naira the official rate today naira is trading around N360 to $1 while the black market is around N420. So, I think even now, the Naira could be open to further losses, due to stronger dollar and weaker oil prices.

“There are still talks at the CBN which is why there is still gap between the official price and the black market. On what CBN should be doing, we have to keep in mind that the Naira is still affected by external factors- oil price. This entails that Naira could still be open to some losses in 2016.

Can you estimate how long (months, years) it will take Nigeria’s economy to flourish again BEYOND oil; that is, owing to Government’s decision to focus on Agriculture, technology?

“The way to diversification is best for Nigeria, but will take a very long time. Remember, Nigeria is made up over 160 million populations with youth the population quite high. One aspect of the diversification is agriculture, which is a better option to reducing food importation and export the surplus.

“When you look at agriculture, manufacturing, technology and building of infrastructure will help Nigeria live beyond oil exportation.  For instance, in the West they produce oil and refine it instead of exporting crude only to import as oil later. So, this is something that can take years to achieve; I think four year minimum.

What Should CBN do with regards managing Bureau De Change (who are principal managers of dollar-naira exchange rates outside the banks)?

“I think the CBN could attempt that funds in this area be transferred through the CBN channels which will be used to manage the dollar-naira exchange.

The Federal Government of Nigeria has declared it intends to submit 2017 budget proposal to NASS as soon as possible, which sector, in your view, should have the lion’s share with regards to economic recovery?

“It goes back to what we have been saying. I feel the share should go to agriculture. No doubt, this is the time for Nigeria to diversify; and it takes time and money to get agriculture to a stable state. And when you have surplus, you export to boost your nation’s self reliance and foreign reserves.

“Another area of investment should be on infrastructure. We know that Nigeria’s infrastructure is weak and it takes a nation with strong infrastructure to easily galvanise all sectors for economic growth, especially manufacturing.

“Tourism could also be a huge industry to help in diversifying the economy.  Let the government invest on roads to boost transportation of those agricultural produce and power. Power will enable SMEs heave sign of relief too and spring up surprises in technological advancements.

What is you prediction with regards how much Naira will exchange to Dollar by year end? What informed your view?

“For now, the main driver between the naira-dollar exchange rates as at today the dollar is domineering. The dollar may continue to strengthen against the Naira, because the U.S is working to strengthen its currency too. If this continues by year end naira may exchange for N500 to a dollar at the black market and N400 official rate.

In the face of the economic recession in the country, what is FXTM doing to help Nigerians (traders) on financial mastery/management?

“Good financial management is extremely important and this comes down to a person’s ability to successfully balance opportunities and risk with regard to their investments. When talking about forex trading, this means having in place a robust risk management strategy and acquiring an in-depth knowledge of the markets so that you can react accordingly to changing market conditions.

“These skills can be learnt and improved, which is why at FXTM we’ve really invested in trader education to ensure that Nigerians can achieve the most from their trading experience. We’ve recently held a number of highly successful educational events in Abuja, including a seminar on ‘The Ultimate Trading Formula’ and a 3-day afternoon trading workshop, and we’ll be holding similar events in Lagos in November. In addition, our local office also offers regular free educational training sessions.

Each week we hold a range of programs including: Basic, Applied and Advanced level financial market trading courses, a MetaTrader 4 Class and an investment seminar on how to trade with the FXTM Invest Program.

“FXTM was one of the first brokers to introduce the updated MetaTrader5 platform that offers hedging and we are seeing a lot of interest in that, so we will look to develop classes on that in the near future as well. 


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E-Financial

Fitch Downgrades Afreximbank to ‘BB+’/Stable Amid Concerns Over Ghana’s Debt

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Fitch Ratings has downgraded African Export-Import Bank’s (Afreximbank) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘BB+’ from ‘BBB-’.

Fitch also downgraded Afreximbank’s Short-Term IDR to ‘B’, from ‘F3’, and the long-term ratings on the bank’s global medium-term note programme and debt issuance to ‘BB+’, from ‘BBB-’.

The global rating institution subsequently withdrew the bank’s ratings.

In a statement posted on its website, Fitch explained that the downgrade “reflects our revision of Afreximbank’s policy importance risk to ‘medium’ from ‘low’ following the announcement of an agreement on Ghana’s debt to Afreximbank in the context of Ghana’s broader restructuring”.

It said, “This has led us to revise our assessment of Afreximbank’s business profile to ‘high risk’ from ‘medium risk’, which resulted in an overall business environment notching of -3 (-2 previously).”

Essentially, a BB+ /Stable rating from Fitch is considered non-investment grade, also known as high-yield or “junk”.

The statement added, “Fitch has chosen to withdraw the ratings for commercial reasons. Fitch will no longer provide ratings or analytical coverage for the bank.”

In arriving at its decision, Fitch stated, “Afreximbank and Ghana announced in December 2025 that they had reached an agreement in principle with respect to Afreximbank’s $750 million sovereign loan to Ghana.

“The IMF stated that the deal is in line with the comparability of treatment under Ghana’s official creditor committee. We view this as evidence that Afreximbank did not benefit from its preferred creditor status (PCS).”

It said, “While we had not previously given any uplift in our solvency assessment for PCS, the de-facto preferential treatment in a broader sense that Afreximbank, along with most other multilateral development banks, benefit from was previously factored into our assessment of the bank’s policy importance.

“The bank’s inclusion in Ghana’s restructuring underlines its weakening policy importance, in our view.”

The rating institution also said, “Our latest assessment of Afreximbank’s ‘high’ business profile risk underpins the ‘high risk’ quality of governance assessment, and ‘high’ strategy risk.

“The ‘high risk’ business environment assessment reflects the bank’s exposure to a ‘high risk’ operating environment with weak credit quality, low income per capita and high political risk in the countries of operation.”

It explained that the ratings were driven by the bank’s Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) of ‘bb+’, reflecting the lower of the solvency (bbb+) and liquidity (a) assessments and its ‘high risk’ business environment.

The statement added that the solvency assessment balanced the bank’s ‘strong’ capitalisation and ‘moderate’ risk profile.

Fitch stated, “Afreximbank’s ‘bbb+’ solvency assessment reflects both ‘strong’ capitalisation and ‘moderate’ solvency risks. Our assessment of capitalisation is underpinned by a ‘moderate’ usable capital to risk-weighted assets (21 per cent at end-2024) ratio, a ‘strong’ equity to assets and guarantees ratio (19 per cent) and ‘excellent’ internal capital generation.

“The ‘moderate’ solvency risks assessment reflects ‘high’ credit risk, ‘weak’ risk management policies, ‘low’ concentration risk and ‘very low’ equity risk.

“Afreximbank’s ‘a’ liquidity assessment reflects the ‘strong’ quality of treasury assets, measured by the share of treasury assets rated ‘AA-’ to ‘AAA’ (50 per cent at end-2024 and we expect it to remain above the ‘strong’ threshold of 40 per cent), and a ‘moderate’ liquidity buffer (defined as liquid assets-to-short-term debt, at 95 per cent at end-2024).

“The bank’s liquidity profile is enhanced by its access to capital markets and diversified funding sources, including credit lines ($2.1 billion, of which $0.6 billion was committed at end-2024) and collateral deposits. The short duration of the loan portfolio also contains liquidity needs.”

Fitch also stated that it “assesses shareholders’ capacity to support Afreximbank at ‘bb-’, based on the average rating of key shareholders (ARKS) accounting for more than 50 per cent of the bank’s capital.

“The sovereign upgrades of Egypt and Nigeria, Afreximbank’s two largest shareholders, in April 2025 improved the ARKS to ‘B+’ from ‘B’.

“Credit risk mitigants on callable capital (covering 40 per cent of $4.3 billion) enhance the support capacity by one notch to ‘bb-’.

“The support assessment also reflects the ‘strong’ propensity of shareholders to support the bank, which has been consistently demonstrated by ongoing capital injections and dividend reinvestments.”

 


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E-Financial

FBNQuest Merchant Bank Rebrands as Quest Merchant Bank

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FBNQuest Merchant Bank Limited has completed a change of name and will now operate as Quest Merchant Bank Limited, following the receipt of all required corporate and regulatory approvals.

The name change does not affect the Bank’s legal or going-concern status, management, or the nature of its business. Quest Merchant Bank Limited remains a duly licensed merchant bank, regulated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and continues to deliver its full suite of merchant banking, advisory, and capital markets services to clients.

Commenting on the development, the Ag. Managing Director/CEO, Afolabi Olorode, stated: “This name change represents a pivotal milestone in the rich history of the Bank and a deliberate strategic repositioning that reflects our resilience, strong track record, and long-term growth ambitions. While our name has evolved, our commitment to our clients, stakeholders, and regulators remains unwavering.”

As part of the transition, the Bank is updating its branding, communications, and digital platforms to reflect the new name. During this period, some legacy references may remain visible across select touchpoints as updates are progressively completed.

All existing contracts, client relationships, and obligations of the Bank remain valid, binding, and fully enforceable following the name change.


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UBA launches instant digital platform for seamless account opening across Africa, diaspora

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United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Africa’s leading financial institution, on Tuesday unveiled a groundbreaking instant account opening platform, revolutionising banking access for millions across the continent and diaspora communities worldwide.

UBA launches instant digital platform for seamless account opening across Africa, diaspora

UBA

The fully digital innovation, accessible at ubagroup.com, empowers prospective customers to complete account onboarding online in minutes, bypassing paperwork, branch visits, and lengthy processes that have long hindered financial inclusion. Supporting Naira and Diaspora accounts with multi-language options, the platform operates seamlessly on computers, tablets, and smartphones, catering to UBA’s diverse pan-African footprint spanning 20 countries, the UK, US, France, and UAE.

Shamsideen Fashola, Group Head of Retail and Digital Banking, described the launch as a pivotal step in democratising finance. “At UBA, we are committed to redefining the customer experience through innovation and simplicity,” Fashola said. “This fully digital solution underscores our belief that banking should be accessible, secure, and truly borderless.”

The seven-step process is intuitive: customers select “Open a Savings Account,” input their Bank Verification Number (BVN), undergo facial verification, confirm an OTP, update details, upload documents, add a digital signature, and receive an instant account number. This bridges traditional banking rigour with fintech speed, incorporating digital KYC while upholding stringent security.

Built with compliance at its core, the platform adheres to Nigeria’s Data Protection Act (NDPA) and Europe’s GDPR, safeguarding user privacy amid cross-border operations. Unlike conventional methods requiring physical biometrics, it enables immediate enrolment in UBA’s digital channels, blending convenience with regulatory depth.

Alero Ladipo, Group Head of Brand, Marketing, and Corporate Communications, highlighted customer-centric design. “Today’s customers expect speed, convenience, and compliance without compromise,” Ladipo stated. “We have blended industry-leading digital onboarding with robust standards for a seamless experience matching global best practices.”

The move reinforces UBA’s dominance in technology-driven inclusion, serving over 50 million customers with 30,000 employees and pioneering retail, commercial, and institutional services. Analysts view it as a strategic edge over fintech rivals, accelerating Africa’s digital economy amid rising diaspora remittances and intra-continental trade.

As Nigeria and Africa push financial digitisation, UBA’s platform positions the bank to capture untapped markets, fostering economic growth through barrier-free banking


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