E-Financial
FXTM Analysis: Nigeria Remains Exposed to External Risks

Investor’s sentiment towards the largest economy in Africa was dealt a sharp blow in November following its disappointing third quarter GDP figure of -2.24% which intensified fears of decelerating growth.
The prolonged period of depressed oil prices has left Nigeria vulnerable in 2016 while falling production from the ongoing militancy continues to sabotage the nation’s effort to maintaining some stability.
A resurgent Dollar from the heightened US rate hike expectations has added insult to injury with the Naira exposed to losses as bears install repeated rounds of selling.
With domestic data such as inflation and unemployment hovering around worrying levels in the midst of slowing growth, concerns have mounted over a classic case of stagflation.
This poisonous cocktail of falling oil prices, disruptions in production and Dollar strength has injured Nigeria this year with the CBN under intense pressure to revive economic growth.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the nation remains exposed to external risks in the shorter term and understanding these risks could be the first steps to retaining some economic security.
Nigeria’s horrible sickness has been identified as oil reliance but the cure which is diversification is a medicine that is effective in the long term.
Although the ongoing talks of investment in agriculture, manufacturing, marine time and tourisms have the potential to elevate the nation, this is on the basis that infrastructure is reinforced.
While the longer-term outlook for Nigeria is unquestionably encouraging, much focus must be directed to the short-term developments as it’s these short-term steps that pave a clear path to the longer-term perspective.
It must be kept in mind that oil price volatility has punished Nigeria for the most part of this year consequently pressuring the Central Bank of Nigeria to take action.
With over 90% of export revenues and 70% of government revenues from oil which currently trades at $46, the nation remains vulnerable to external risks. When factoring the 22% drop in production this year amid the ongoing militancy in the South, it can be understood why there were three consecutive quarters of contraction.
The terrible combination of foreign exchange scarcity and Dollars resurgence has thoroughly punished the Naira with prices trading around 465 on the black market exchange. Sentiment if firmly bearish towards the Naira in the short term with steeper depreciations expected as concerns over the Nigerian economy entices sellers to attack incessantly.
If Dollar strength remains a dominant theme this year and the Federal Reserve raising US rates in December, then the Naira may depreciate towards 500 against the Dollar in the medium term.
A strong feeling of disappointment continues to linger across the Nigerian markets after the rejection of the government spending plans for the next three years.
The budget was meant to boost the ailing economy but lawmakers rejected it based on the lack of detail which simply added to the short term uncertainty. The unanswered questions over the direction of the Nigerian economy coupled with falling oil have sparked a wave of risk aversion which triggered sharp selloffs in Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).
With economic growth in Nigeria potentially contracting further in the fourth quarter, the Central Bank of Nigeria may be forced to implement both monetary and fiscal measures in an effort to pump some life back into the nation.
A tightening of monetary policy that involves the CBN raising interest rates to 15% may quell the nation’s rampant inflation which currently stands at 18.3%. The downside to higher rates is it diminishes investments and consumer spending and such could negatively impact Nigeria even further.
On the fiscal side, an increase in direct taxes could lead to a reduction in disposable income which may result in a drop in inflation.
Although the fiscal side has the ability to quell inflation, a major setback could be a decline in demand and output that may pressure employment and economic growth. With both fiscal and monetary measures potentially doing more damage than good in the short term, the CBN may observe the developments of the Nigerian economy further before potentially taking action in the New Year.
2016 has been a very rough, painful and historic year for Nigeria which may experience its first full year contraction in more than two decades.
While the short-term outlook remains somewhat depressing, it should be kept in mind that the shock of falling oil has sparked a structural transition that could elevate the nation to awe-inspiring levels in the longer term.
The largest economy in Africa must work hard to reinforce its infrastructure which may give rise to agriculture, tourism and even manufacturing which are all supportive of economic growth.
The pieces of this complicated jigsaw puzzle to fixing Nigeria are slowing coming together with time acting as the final ingredient.
E-Financial
Majority of Nigerians do not Trust Govt with Tax Revenue – SBM

Majority Nigerians do not trust the government to properly utilise their tax payments for good use, according to a survey by SBM Intelligence across nine cities.

The survey highlighted why recent tax reforms have triggered widespread anxiety and resistance.
“Survey data from 200 respondents across nine cities indicate that 68.5 percent of Nigerians completely distrust the government’s use of tax revenues, whereas only 27.5 percent view the reforms as beneficial to the country, ” SBM intelligence said in its recent report titled Taxing Patience.
Nigeria’s 2025 Tax Reform Acts took effect in January, introducing the most comprehensive overhaul of the tax framework in decades. The reform has created more awareness among Nigerians than ever before, increasing their further distrust in the government’s use of tax revenues.
The distrust reflects years of poor service delivery and weak accountability, shaping public doubt toward the new tax system despite assurances that the reforms are designed to ease burdens and improve fairness.
“In the past, people avoided tax because they felt the government wouldn’t provide basic amenities,” businessday quoted Okanlawon Hakeem, a Lagos-based businessman, as saying.
“You drill boreholes yourself, pay for public transport yourself, and sometimes fix your local road yourself. So, you ask yourself what the government is doing with the tax money.”
The SBM Intelligence report noted that access to reliable electricity, improved security and better roads were the clearest signals that would make tax compliance worthwhile.
“46 percent of participants identified improvements in roads and security as their primary motivation for tax compliance,” SBM Intelligence noted, explaining that service delivery, rather than enforcement alone, is likely to shape taxpayer behaviour.
Government officials have defended the changes as necessary to improve public finances and reduce Nigeria’s dependence on oil revenue, pointing to the country’s historically low tax-to-GDP ratio.
With a tax-to-GDP ratio of less than 10 percent, Nigeria has lagged behind regional peers such as Ghana and Kenya. Taiwo Oyedele, chairman presidential fiscal policy and tax committee, hopes the reforms will lift the ratio toward 18 percent over the medium term.
Public sentiment, however, has not moved in step with these fiscal ambitions. According to the report, only 27.5 percent of people believe that the new tax laws are good for the country.
The report also suggests that greater awareness of the reforms often coincides with stronger skepticism rather than acceptance.
Distrust cuts across regions and occupations but is especially pronounced in major commercial centres.
The report mentioned that people in Lagos and parts of the Northeast have the strongest resistance and protest sentiment, reflecting concerns about enforcement, fairness and legislative integrity.
In its Year Ahead 2026 outlook, SBM Intelligence projects that protests are likely as the real impact of the new framework becomes clearer. The report points to the June 2024 youth-led protests in Kenya, which resulted in a reversal of the policy.
In Nigeria, where inflation is only just beginning to show signs of easing, the tolerance for perceived government excesses, including lavish convoys and budget padding, is at an all-time low.
Business owners, traders and informal workers expressed particular unease, fearing the reforms could deepen the problem of double taxation. Many worry that government levies will exist alongside rather than replace the fees already collected by unions and non-state actors.
“ Nearly a third of business respondents said they expect to pay both official taxes and union fees,” the report stated.
For informal workers such as market traders, drivers and artisans, this fear is grounded in experience. Many already make daily payments to unions or associations, often under pressure.
Without a clear plan to eliminate these parallel charges, new government taxes are widely viewed as an additional burden rather than a simplification of the system.
In Lagos, Kano and Onitsha, constant electricity emerged as the strongest trigger for compliance. In Abuja, Port Harcourt and Bauchi, respondents prioritized roads and security. Across cities, the message was consistent: willingness to pay is conditional on visible outcomes.
Analysts warn that without clear improvements in service delivery, stronger enforcement could harden resistance rather than improve compliance.
The report stated that without rapid, visible improvements in public services, the government risks collecting more money while winning.
E-Financial
Why FirstBank Wrote off N748Bn Bad Loan – Otedola

Femi Otedola, group chairman, First Bank Holdings, has justified the company’s decision to write off N748bn in legacy non-performing loans, saying the move was a deliberate strategy aimed at securing long-term financial stability, even though it significantly reduced reported profits.

Femi Otedola, group chairman, First Bank Holdings,
Otedola made this known in a post on his X handle, where he explained that the large-scale provisioning led to a 92 per cent drop in the holding company’s profit figure.
According to the billionaire investor, the write-off was in line with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s directive encouraging banks to confront non-performing loans openly instead of postponing the issue.
“At First HoldCo we decided to clean house properly. We took a huge one-time hit of N748bn to admit old bad loans instead of pretending they do not exist. That is why profit looks like it crashed by 92 per cent. Painful headline, but it is a serious long-term move,” he wrote.
He noted that the decision was taken to finally address problematic loans accumulated over previous years and to strengthen confidence among stakeholders.
“Why do this now? Because the CBN is pushing banks to stop kicking problems down the road. So First HoldCo basically closed the chapter on messy loans from past years which sends a clear message that borrowing has consequences and it helps rebuild trust,” Otedola added.
Despite the scale of the write-off, Otedola maintained that the bank’s core business remained solid, stressing that strong earnings demonstrated the institution’s underlying financial strength.
He disclosed that the bank generated N2.96tn in interest income and N1.91tn in net interest income, figures he said were sufficient to absorb the clean-up while keeping operations stable.
“The key point is this: our business itself is STILL strong. It made N2.96tn in interest income and N1.91tn in net interest income, which gave it the strength to take the cleanup and still stay standing,” he stated.
Looking ahead, Otedola expressed confidence in the bank’s future, saying the balance sheet clean-up has positioned First Bank well for recapitalisation and sustained growth.
“Now at First Bank and beyond we go into 2026 lighter, cleaner and better prepared for the recapitalisation era and serious growth. Bad loans cleared + strong income engine + long-term thinking = real value creation,” he concluded.
E-Financial
Unity Bank Unwraps Mobile App to Deepen Digital Banking Experience

Unity Bank Plc, Nigeria’s retail lender, has launched an upgraded version of its mobile banking platform, Unifi, as part of ongoing efforts to improve customer experience and reinforce its proposition in e-business.

Speaking on the upgrade, Adenike Abimbola, divisional head, Retail, SME, Digital Banking & Fintech Partnerships at Unity Bank, said the improvements were built on the back of continuous interrogation of the platform to be more responsive to customer feedbacks which are being received overtime in our interactions and engagements.
“Digital banking has become an integral part of everyday life, particularly for retail customers who expect speed, dependability, convenience, and security as standard. With the latest upgrade to Unifi, we are responding directly to these expectations by enhancing functionality, strengthening security, and simplifying key payment and transaction journeys. Our goal is to ensure that customers can carry out their banking activities seamlessly, confidently, and without friction, anytime and anywhere,” Abimbola said
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