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FXTM Analysis: Nigeria Remains Exposed to External Risks

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Investor’s sentiment towards the largest economy in Africa was dealt a sharp blow in November following its disappointing third quarter GDP figure of -2.24% which intensified fears of decelerating growth.

The prolonged period of depressed oil prices has left Nigeria vulnerable in 2016 while falling production from the ongoing militancy continues to sabotage the nation’s effort to maintaining some stability.

A resurgent Dollar from the heightened US rate hike expectations has added insult to injury with the Naira exposed to losses as bears install repeated rounds of selling.

With domestic data such as inflation and unemployment hovering around worrying levels in the midst of slowing growth, concerns have mounted over a classic case of stagflation.

This poisonous cocktail of falling oil prices, disruptions in production and Dollar strength has injured Nigeria this year with the CBN under intense pressure to revive economic growth.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the nation remains exposed to external risks in the shorter term and understanding these risks could be the first steps to retaining some economic security.

Nigeria’s horrible sickness has been identified as oil reliance but the cure which is diversification is a medicine that is effective in the long term.

Although the ongoing talks of investment in agriculture, manufacturing, marine time and tourisms have the potential to elevate the nation, this is on the basis that infrastructure is reinforced.

While the longer-term outlook for Nigeria is unquestionably encouraging, much focus must be directed to the short-term developments as it’s these short-term steps that pave a clear path to the longer-term perspective.

It must be kept in mind that oil price volatility has punished Nigeria for the most part of this year consequently pressuring the Central Bank of Nigeria to take action.

With over 90% of export revenues and 70% of government revenues from oil which currently trades at $46, the nation remains vulnerable to external risks. When factoring the 22% drop in production this year amid the ongoing militancy in the South, it can be understood why there were three consecutive quarters of contraction.

The terrible combination of foreign exchange scarcity and Dollars resurgence has thoroughly punished the Naira with prices trading around 465 on the black market exchange. Sentiment if firmly bearish towards the Naira in the short term with steeper depreciations expected as concerns over the Nigerian economy entices sellers to attack incessantly.

If Dollar strength remains a dominant theme this year and the Federal Reserve raising US rates in December, then the Naira may depreciate towards 500 against the Dollar in the medium term.

A strong feeling of disappointment continues to linger across the Nigerian markets after the rejection of the government spending plans for the next three years.

The budget was meant to boost the ailing economy but lawmakers rejected it based on the lack of detail which simply added to the short term uncertainty. The unanswered questions over the direction of the Nigerian economy coupled with falling oil have sparked a wave of risk aversion which triggered sharp selloffs in Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).

With economic growth in Nigeria potentially contracting further in the fourth quarter, the Central Bank of Nigeria may be forced to implement both monetary and fiscal measures in an effort to pump some life back into the nation.

A tightening of monetary policy that involves the CBN raising interest rates to 15% may quell the nation’s rampant inflation which currently stands at 18.3%. The downside to higher rates is it diminishes investments and consumer spending and such could negatively impact Nigeria even further.

On the fiscal side, an increase in direct taxes could lead to a reduction in disposable income which may result in a drop in inflation.

Although the fiscal side has the ability to quell inflation, a major setback could be a decline in demand and output that may pressure employment and economic growth. With both fiscal and monetary measures potentially doing more damage than good in the short term, the CBN may observe the developments of the Nigerian economy further before potentially taking action in the New Year.

2016 has been a very rough, painful and historic year for Nigeria which may experience its first full year contraction in more than two decades.

While the short-term outlook remains somewhat depressing, it should be kept in mind that the shock of falling oil has sparked a structural transition that could elevate the nation to awe-inspiring levels in the longer term.

The largest economy in Africa must work hard to reinforce its infrastructure which may give rise to agriculture, tourism and even manufacturing which are all supportive of economic growth.

The pieces of this complicated jigsaw puzzle to fixing Nigeria are slowing coming together with time acting as the final ingredient.


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E-Financial

CBN Warns Non-Interest Banks  against Governance, Compliance Risks

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has warned non-interest financial institutions against governance and compliance risks capable of undermining public confidence and financial stability in the country’s growing Islamic finance sector.

CBN Warns Non-Interest Banks  against Governance, Compliance Risks

Interest-free banks, often known as non-interest or Islamic banks, operate without charging or paying traditional interest (Riba).

The warning was contained in a press statement issued by the apex bank following the 2nd Annual Interactive Session between the CBN Financial Regulation Advisory Council of Experts and the Advisory Committees of Experts of Non-Interest Financial Institutions held at the CBN Auditorium in Abuja.

Speaking through Dr Rita Sike, director of the Financial Policy and Regulation Department,  Philip Ikeazor, deputy governor, Financial System Stability, said the rapid expansion of the industry had increased exposure to operational and regulatory vulnerabilities.

The statement read, “The Deputy Governor, however, observed that as the industry grows in size, sophistication, and interconnectedness, it faces unique risks, particularly non-compliance risk, governance challenges, operational vulnerabilities, and emerging technological risks.

“He warned that such risks, if not properly managed, could undermine public confidence, financial stability, and the overall credibility of the non-interest finance ecosystem.”

According to the CBN, the engagement was part of ongoing efforts to strengthen Shariah governance, improve regulatory clarity, and reinforce risk management standards within the non-interest financial services industry.

The apex bank noted that non-interest financial institutions continued to play an increasingly important role in Nigeria’s financial system by providing ethical and Shariah-compliant alternatives to conventional banking.

It stated that the institutions were also contributing to financial inclusion, real sector financing, micro, small, and medium enterprises development, and shared prosperity.

The CBN further explained that the establishment of FRACE and the mandatory constitution of ACEs across all non-interest financial institutions were designed to institutionalise a harmonised governance framework for the sector.

According to the statement, sustained interaction between FRACE and ACEs remained critical to ensuring that regulatory expectations were properly understood and consistently implemented across the industry.

“The objectives of today’s session include fostering the institutionalisation and effective operation of a robust Shariah governance system within Non-Interest Financial Institutions, and providing a structured platform for dialogue, knowledge-sharing, and collaboration,” Ikeazor was quoted in the statement.

In his remarks, Prof Bashir Umar, deputy chairman of FRACE,  said the interactive session was aimed at strengthening governance within the non-interest finance sub-sector and promoting constructive engagement between regulators and industry advisory committees.

He also commended the management of the CBN for reviving the session, which was first introduced in 2014.

Earlier in her welcome remarks, Sike reaffirmed the apex bank’s commitment to building a strong and well-governed non-interest financial services industry.

She noted that the growing diversity of products and delivery channels, particularly the emergence of Islamic fintech, had increased the need for stronger regulatory oversight and continuous engagement among industry stakeholders.

“The growing diversity of products, institutions, and delivery channels, particularly with the emergence of Islamic fintech, underscores the need for continuous dialogue, sound regulatory oversight, and robust advisory input from scholars and practitioners,” she said.

The session featured technical presentations on Shariah non-compliance risks in non-interest banks and the role of Islamic fintech in driving financial inclusion.

Participants at the event included members of FRACE, chairmen and members of various ACEs, managing directors of non-interest banks, senior CBN officials, and representatives of the Bank of Industry and the Securities and Exchange Commission.


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FG Seeks Fresh $1.25Bn Loan from World Bank to Create Jobs, Others

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Federal government is in discussions with the World Bank over a proposed $1.25 billion loan facility aimed at supporting economic reforms, job creation, and competitiveness programmes across Nigeria.

FG Seeks Fresh $1.25Bn Loan from World Bank to Create Jobs, Others

A World Bank document titled Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration showed the facility has moved beyond the concept and appraisal stages and is now scheduled for a decision meeting ahead of a planned Board presentation on June 26, 2026.

If approved, the loan would become Nigeria’s second-largest World Bank financing package after the $1.5 billion Reforms for Economic Stabilisation to Enable Transformation Development Policy Financing approved in June 2024.

The document listed the Federal Republic of Nigeria as the borrower, while the Federal Ministry of Finance will serve as the implementing agency.

It explained that the project is currently at the decision-meeting stage of the World Bank’s project cycle, where final appraisal documents undergo internal review before submission to the Board of Executive Directors for approval.

At this stage, the institution confirms policy actions, financing terms, and reform commitments already agreed in principle between Nigeria and World Bank teams.

It also said the proposed facility will support government efforts to expand access to finance, digital services, and electricity, while strengthening competitiveness through reforms in taxation, trade, and agriculture.

World Bank says loan will support finance, digital access, and electricity reforms

Between June 2023 and May 2026, the World Bank approved about $9.35 billion in loans and credits for Nigeria across key sectors including power, education, healthcare, agriculture, renewable energy, social protection, and MSME financing.

Major approvals during the period include the $2.25 billion RESET and ARMOR reform financing in June 2024, $1.57 billion for HOPE and SPIN programmes in September 2024, and $1.08 billion for education and resilience projects approved in March 2025.

 

 

 


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Ecobank Group Announces $3b Trade Finance Commitment to Boost Intra African Trade

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Ecobank Group, a pan-African banking group yesterday announced a landmark $3 billion trade finance commitment over the next 3 years to accelerate intra-African global trade.

The announcement was made during the Africa-Forward Summit in Nairobi, within the framework of the bank’s active engagement in the Africa-France Impact Coalition (AFIC) led under the patronage of H.E. President Macron of France and H.E. President Ruto of Kenya.

This ambitious commitment, specifically designed to build integrated value chains and foster shared economic sovereignty reinforces the group’s unique position as the premier financial gateway connecting Africa and the world.

Building on a proven track record across 34 African markets, Ecobank Group will partner with Development Finance Institutions (DFIs), including Proparco, to deploy this $3 billion commitment.

By expanding access to competitive trade finance, the funds will directly fuel the core engines of Africa’s real economy: agribusiness, manufacturing, and general commerce.

This strategic deployment is designed to accelerate the structural transformation of the continent, anchoring future growth in sustainable industrialization, resilient infrastructure, and human capital.

By strengthening liquidity, providing guarantees, and deploying specialized trade instruments, Ecobank will help African businesses secure essential inputs, access new markets, and build resilience within increasingly complex global supply chains.

Chief Executive Officer 9f Ecobank Group, Jeremy Awori said: “The Africa-France Impact Coalition marks a fundamental shift toward shared sovereignty and integrated supply chains, and we are proud to drive this vision.

“Africa is rising and trading. By leveraging our Paris banking hub and partnerships with DFIs like Proparco, we are connecting African opportunities with global capital. This initiative is more than a financial commitment, it is a catalyst for trade, investment and talent – the pillars of Africa’s next decade”.

This $3 billion commitment signals strong confidence in Africa’s capacity to industrialize, scale production, and participate as a highly competitive partner in global trade, strongly aligning with the moment of intra-Africa trade acceleration.

Strategy gateway through Paris & expected outcomes

Central to this pledge is EBISA, Ecobank’s Paris-based hub, which serves as the critical gateway connecting African enterprises with international markets. EBISA will anchor the cross-border flows that drive both investment and trade, facilitating the “Made in Africa” and “Co-Made in Africa and France” ecosystems.

By focusing not just on capital, but on the entrepreneurs, small business owners, youth innovators, and women-led enterprises that drive the continent forward, Ecobank will deliver measurable impact across five priority dimensions:

Support sustainable development across Ecobank’s expansive footprint; Enhance market access for SMEs and large corporate entities;Deepen integration into regional and global value chains; Empower women and youth-led businesses; Strengthen economic resilience and long-term value creation.

Through strategic collaborations spanning trade, investment and talent, Ecobank Group and its partners in the AFIC are moving the continent forward with confidence, purpose, and impact.


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