E-Financial
Forex: Overview on the 2017 Key Market Themes

Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM provides an overview on the 2017 key market themes. Whether you consider 2016 a good or a bad year, it was by no doubt the year of surprises. Not just because Donald Trump was elected the 45th president of the United Stated or because the UK decided to leave the EU, but the markets’ reactions to these events were even more surprising and most forecasters got it wrong.
A new year has started and many questions remain to be answered; here are some of the most asked questions for 2017: Will the Trump rally carry on? How many rate hikes will the Fed deliver? What is the future of the UK and the EU? Will OPEC finally balance the oil markets?
Will The Trump Rally Carry On?
Following the election of Donald Trump on November 8, all U.S. major indices recorded new highs.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 8%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite gained 5%, and the small-cap stock market index Russell 2000 outperformed its peers rising by more than 13%.
From a market valuation perspective, very few may disagree that stocks are expensive, but the expected combination of fiscal stimulus and deregulation for some sectors under Trump’s presidency were the main catalysts for the rally. Of course, financial markets tend to price in events before they occur, but this time I believe investors have priced in most of the good news, and it requires very strong corporate profit growth to keep this bull market alive.
Predicting the end of the bull market is a tough call, but the downside risk in 2017 is likely to be larger than the upside potential. If U.S. policy makers succeed in delivering the anticipated growth we can see another 5 – 10% gains in U.S. stocks, but failure to do so will cause a steep selloff that could exceed 20%.
Day traders may be luckier than investors in 2017 as a new indicator has been added to their watch list: Trump’s twitter account.
On December 6, Trump tweeted “Boeing is building a brand new 747 Air Force One for future presidents, but costs are out of control, more than $4 billion. Cancel order!”, few seconds later Boeing stock wiped almost $1 billion from its market cap. We expect to see more of these tweets in 2017 and algorithms will probably require long time to put them into play, leaving retail traders with opportunities to profit from such market disruptions.
How Many Rate Hikes Will the Fed Deliver?
2016 kicked off with the expectation that four rate hikes would occur, but only one was delivered in December.
Although it was anticipated that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in their forward guidance for 2017, December’s meeting took many economists by surprise as they hinted for three rate hikes.
Since the financial crisis in 2008 the Fed has got many things wrong, whether it is forecasting rate hikes, economic growth and inflation levels, and now with a new administration to take office on January 20, this could make the Fed’s projections even more complicated.
Inflation has always been the main justification for low interest rates, but now, even before Trump takes office, a couple of inflation gauges are running above 2%. The Fed did not account for any fiscal stimulus measures in their most recent projections, suggesting that huge shifts in expectations may be seen.
The rising U.S. dollar which is currently at a 14-year high is another source of worry for the Fed, and tightening too fast will lead to even stronger dollar hitting U.S. exports and multinational companies’ profits.
If Trump’s measures were passed and economic growth picked up, the Fed will have few options, either tightening monetary policy more aggressively, or to fall behind the curve and let the fixed income market lead the way, but three rate hikes in 2017 is my base case. Either way the dollar is likely to remain strong as divergence in monetary policies will continue to widen.
Future of the UK and the EU?
Hard, Soft or Grey Brexit. This was the most argued topic in the past six months, and until now there’s no clear path on what direction the UK will move.
The pound ended 2016 17.5% lower against the US dollar since June 23 and there’s lot of speculation on how it will end in 2017. Of course, much will depend on the path Britain will choose.
Theresa May promised to trigger Article 50 by the end of March, but we still need to hear from the Supreme Court on whether the UK government needs parliamentary approval before starting the withdrawal from the EU.
The delay in triggering Article 50 will be positive in the short term for sterling, and negotiations may last well beyond 2017 on the terms of Brexit.
Meanwhile investors will be focusing on the economic developments and the direction of the Bank of England’s monetary policy, which will probably be the second major central bank to raise rates after the Fed.
Politics within the EU will rule investment decisions in 2017. Germany and France, the two largest economies will hold elections amid the rise of Eurosceptic candidates.
Italy is likely to see an early vote, after the resignation of Matteo Renzi last month, and the Five Star Movement has vowed that if it wins power it will hold a referendum on whether Italy should leave the Eurozone.
Although many polls indicate that far right candidates are still behind, nothing should be taken for granted after Trump won the U.S. presidency and Britain voted to leave the EU. Expect to see more pressure on the Euro and look out for parity against the dollar in the first six months.
Will OPEC finally balance the oil market?
After hitting a low of $27 a barrel in February 2016, Brent prices more than doubled by the end of year and many investment banks still see further increase in prices for 2017.
OPEC’s decision to cut its output by 1.2 million barrels a day starting January, and non-OPEC producers to cut 558K barrels for the next six months to drain record global oil inventories led Brent prices to post its first yearly increase since 2012.
Whether more appreciation is to be seen in 2017 will depend on multiple factors, and the biggest one currently looming is compliance to production cuts. It’s in no one’s interest not to comply, but historic figures show that delivering on previous production cuts has been poor.
U.S. producers are another element to be focused on, how fast shale may come back is a key component to be considered in the price equation.
Although Trump has made the energy sector part of his economic growth plan, I believe it won’t have a lot of impact if prices don’t hold up. The dollar strength will likely impact the demand side, as continued strength will make oil more expensive in other currencies.
With all these unknows we will likely see prices moving in tight ranges in the first quarter until we get a clearer picture.
E-Financial
CBN to Simplify Bank Alerts over Rising Customer Complaints

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and commercial banks are reviewing the large number of transaction alerts sent to customers and the complaints about bank charges.

So called bank alert refers to real-time SMS or email notifications from your financial institution about transactions, balances, or security updates.
Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said this in Abuja after the 305th Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
He explained that many bank customers are confused because they receive too many debit alerts for a single transaction.
To address this, the CBN has created a quarterly meeting system involving its consumer protection team, commercial banks, and the top 10 microfinance banks. The goal is to resolve customer complaints faster and improve banking services.
Cardoso said one major issue being studied is how banks send multiple notifications for one transaction.African Politics Analysis
He said this often confuses customers and suggested that alerts should be simplified and combined so people can clearly understand what each debit is for.
He added that the issue is still being worked on and solutions will be proposed soon.
On the N50 stamp duty charge, the CBN governor explained that it is not a bank charge.
He said the charge comes from tax authorities, while banks only collect it and send it to the government.
He advised customers who notice wrong charges to first complain to their bank. If the issue is not resolved, they can escalate it to the CBN’s consumer protection department.
Cardoso also said the CBN has strengthened its monitoring system to ensure banks handle complaints properly, compensate customers when needed, and improve customer service.
The CBN is also reviewing how banks apply rules on charges and customer complaints, with the aim of improving transparency and reducing repeated issues in the banking system.
E-Financial
Griffin Capital Group Launches Integrated Financial Services Group Positioned to Strengthen Capital Formation in Nigeria, Africa

Griffin Capital Group Limited has announced its official market entry as a fully integrated financial services group, bringing together investment banking, asset management, trusteeship, lending, and insurance capabilities under a unified institutional platform.

The launch reflects a deliberate response to the evolving demands of Nigeria’s financial ecosystem, where the need for disciplined capital deployment, stronger Corporate Governance frameworks, and deeper market liquidity continues to shape the next phase of growth.
Structured as a multi-business financial services group, Griffin Capital is designed to operate across the full spectrum of capital formation, from origination through innovatively structuring complex financial transactions in a simplified manner; to execution, distribution, and investment management. This enables us to both advise on and actively participate in transactions.
The Group enters the market with a leadership team whose experience spans investment banking, Insurance brokerage, capital markets, corporate finance, development finance, and investment management across Africa and global financial centers.
Griffin Capital’s operating model reflects a clear emphasis on institutional discipline, combining advisory expertise with balance sheet strength to support more efficient capital allocation and improved transaction quality.
As Nigeria’s economic reforms continue to unlock new opportunities across infrastructure and project finance, financial advisory, and private capital markets; the Group is positioned to support both issuers and investors through a structure designed for scale, transparency, and execution.
Commenting on the launch, the Group Chief Executive Officer, Babatunde Obaniyi said: “The opportunity in Nigeria’s financial markets is significant, but unlocking it requires more than capital. It requires structure, governance, and the ability to deploy capital with discipline. Griffin Capital Group has been built to address these fundamentals. Our model allows us to operate across the full lifecycle of transactions from advisory to execution, while maintaining a strong focus on risk management and long-term value creation.
“We are entering the market with a clear sense of responsibility, particularly in how capital is structured, deployed, and preserved. Our ambition is to build an institution that contributes meaningfully to market development while maintaining the highest standards of governance and execution.”
The Chairman of the Group, Musa Bello added: “Financial institutions play a critical role in shaping economic outcomes, particularly in emerging markets where capital must be deployed with both precision and purpose. Griffin Capital Group represents a long-term commitment to building an institution that combines local market understanding with global standards of governance and execution.
“As Nigeria continues to deepen its capital markets and expand private sector participation, institutions with the capacity to structure, mobilize, and manage capital effectively will be essential. Our focus is not only on participating in this evolution, but on contributing to it in a meaningful and sustainable way.”
With a medium-to-long-term strategy focused on growth in assets under management and expanded participation across key sectors, Griffin Capital Group intends to play an active role in facilitating capital flows within Nigeria and across the African continent.
The Group’s integrated platform is expected to support a broad range of clients, including retail, corporates, institutional investors, development finance institutions, government institutions, and high-net-worth individuals, through tailored financial solutions and disciplined execution.
E-Financial
Court Orders Globus Bank to Pay Firm N256m for Breach of Contract

A High Court of the Federal Capital Territory, presided by Justice Christopher Oba, has ordered Globus Bank Ltd to pay a total of N256 million to an Abuja-based company, Haril Global Solutions Ltd, for breaching a contractual agreement.

In the suit marked; FCT/HC/CV/1456/2026, Haril Global Solution Ltd, Chinedu Mba, Idris Olayiwola and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), were listed as Defendants to the counterclaim filed by the bank.
The Claimant filed the suit by way of Writ of Summons, wherein it complained of breach of contractual agreement and wrongful deductions running into millions of naira by the bank.
Delivering judgement on the matter, Justice Oba declared that there was a valid and subsisting contract between the Claimant and the Defendant, pursuant to the letter of offer of facility dated July 4, 2023, signed by both the Claimant and the Defendant and the Overdraft Facility Agreement executed between the Claimant and the Defendant dated July 4, 2023.
Subsequently, the Court made a declaration that the Claimant is entitled to the return of the Debt Service Reserve Fee Sum of One Hundred and Nine Million Naira (N109M) wrongfully withdrawn by the Defendant from the Claimant’s Debt Service Reserve Account with account number 4000006572 and transferred to the Claimant’s Overdraft with account number 1000085336 on December 29, 2023, contrary to the Overdraft facility Agreement executed between the Claimant and the Defendant dated July 4, 2023 and the letter of offer of facility dated July 4, 2023.
The Court also mandated the Defendant to return the sum of Twenty-Six Million, Seventy-Six Thousand, Three Hundred and Eighty-Eight Naira Thirty-Two, kobo (N26,076,388.32) wrongfully withdrawn on January 31, 2024, from the account of the Claimant with account number 1000085336 as interest despite the fact that a Post-No-Debit has been placed on the Claimant’s account as a result of which the Claimant could not carry out his business.
In addition, the Judge ordered Globus Bank to return the sum of Fifteen Million Naira (N15,000,000.00) wrongfully withdrawn from the account of the Claimant on February 6, 2024, with account number 1000085336, with interest despite the fact that a Post-No-debit has been placed on the Claimant as a result of which the Claimant could not carry out its business.
The Court equally ordered the Defendant to pay the Claimant Five Million Naira (N5M) as general damages for breach of contract, as well as pay the Claimant the sum of One Million Naira (N1m) as the cost of this suit.
According to the Court, the Defendant breached the accepted Letter of offer of facility dated July 4, 2023, overdraft facility agreement executed between the Claimant and the Defendant dated July 4, 2023.
“A declaration of this honourable court is hereby made that the contract between the Claimant and the Defendant pursuant to the Letter of offer of facility dated the 4th July, 2023, and the Overdraft Facility Agreement executed between the Claimant and the Defendant dated 4th day of July 2023, is discharged by the breach occasioned by the Defendant.
“A declaration of this Honourable Court is hereby made that the defendant is liable to the Claimant for breach of contract thus liable to pay the Claimant general damages for breach of contract.
However, the court dismissed the counterclaim by Globus Bank on the ground that it failed to adduce credible evidence to establish its claims for fraud or unlawful interference with the contract terms by Haril Global Solutions Ltd.
The Counter-Claimant had alleged that the Claimant manipulated the system by debiting other merchants to credit its own account.
“However, no evidence was led to show which specific merchants were debited or to provide testimony from such third parties, the court stated.
Regarding the Police investigation report (Ex Q1-2), the court stated that the report did not indict the Claimant for the alleged fraud, noting that the report mentioned a figure of N900 million, which was vastly different from the N2.5 billion sought in the Counter-Claim.
The Judge held that the Police Investigation Report was a mere report and not a judicial pronouncement that the court can use to determine the allegation of fraud against the Claimant.
“Consequently, the Counter-Claimant has failed to provide cogent, credible, and compelling evidence to establish its claims for fraud or unlawful interference with trade.
“The reliefs sought in the Counter-Claim are declaratory and monetary in nature, and such reliefs cannot be granted on the basis of unsupported allegations or documents that have been expunged by the Court.
“In the circumstances, I find that the Counter-Claimant has failed to discharge both the legal and evidential burden of proof required by law.
“I hereby dismiss the counter-claim in its entirety for lack of merit. On the whole, the case of the Claimant succeeds” Justice Oba said.
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