E-Financial
Forex: Overview on the 2017 Key Market Themes

Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM provides an overview on the 2017 key market themes. Whether you consider 2016 a good or a bad year, it was by no doubt the year of surprises. Not just because Donald Trump was elected the 45th president of the United Stated or because the UK decided to leave the EU, but the markets’ reactions to these events were even more surprising and most forecasters got it wrong.
A new year has started and many questions remain to be answered; here are some of the most asked questions for 2017: Will the Trump rally carry on? How many rate hikes will the Fed deliver? What is the future of the UK and the EU? Will OPEC finally balance the oil markets?
Will The Trump Rally Carry On?
Following the election of Donald Trump on November 8, all U.S. major indices recorded new highs.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 8%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite gained 5%, and the small-cap stock market index Russell 2000 outperformed its peers rising by more than 13%.
From a market valuation perspective, very few may disagree that stocks are expensive, but the expected combination of fiscal stimulus and deregulation for some sectors under Trump’s presidency were the main catalysts for the rally. Of course, financial markets tend to price in events before they occur, but this time I believe investors have priced in most of the good news, and it requires very strong corporate profit growth to keep this bull market alive.
Predicting the end of the bull market is a tough call, but the downside risk in 2017 is likely to be larger than the upside potential. If U.S. policy makers succeed in delivering the anticipated growth we can see another 5 – 10% gains in U.S. stocks, but failure to do so will cause a steep selloff that could exceed 20%.
Day traders may be luckier than investors in 2017 as a new indicator has been added to their watch list: Trump’s twitter account.
On December 6, Trump tweeted “Boeing is building a brand new 747 Air Force One for future presidents, but costs are out of control, more than $4 billion. Cancel order!”, few seconds later Boeing stock wiped almost $1 billion from its market cap. We expect to see more of these tweets in 2017 and algorithms will probably require long time to put them into play, leaving retail traders with opportunities to profit from such market disruptions.
How Many Rate Hikes Will the Fed Deliver?
2016 kicked off with the expectation that four rate hikes would occur, but only one was delivered in December.
Although it was anticipated that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in their forward guidance for 2017, December’s meeting took many economists by surprise as they hinted for three rate hikes.
Since the financial crisis in 2008 the Fed has got many things wrong, whether it is forecasting rate hikes, economic growth and inflation levels, and now with a new administration to take office on January 20, this could make the Fed’s projections even more complicated.
Inflation has always been the main justification for low interest rates, but now, even before Trump takes office, a couple of inflation gauges are running above 2%. The Fed did not account for any fiscal stimulus measures in their most recent projections, suggesting that huge shifts in expectations may be seen.
The rising U.S. dollar which is currently at a 14-year high is another source of worry for the Fed, and tightening too fast will lead to even stronger dollar hitting U.S. exports and multinational companies’ profits.
If Trump’s measures were passed and economic growth picked up, the Fed will have few options, either tightening monetary policy more aggressively, or to fall behind the curve and let the fixed income market lead the way, but three rate hikes in 2017 is my base case. Either way the dollar is likely to remain strong as divergence in monetary policies will continue to widen.
Future of the UK and the EU?
Hard, Soft or Grey Brexit. This was the most argued topic in the past six months, and until now there’s no clear path on what direction the UK will move.
The pound ended 2016 17.5% lower against the US dollar since June 23 and there’s lot of speculation on how it will end in 2017. Of course, much will depend on the path Britain will choose.
Theresa May promised to trigger Article 50 by the end of March, but we still need to hear from the Supreme Court on whether the UK government needs parliamentary approval before starting the withdrawal from the EU.
The delay in triggering Article 50 will be positive in the short term for sterling, and negotiations may last well beyond 2017 on the terms of Brexit.
Meanwhile investors will be focusing on the economic developments and the direction of the Bank of England’s monetary policy, which will probably be the second major central bank to raise rates after the Fed.
Politics within the EU will rule investment decisions in 2017. Germany and France, the two largest economies will hold elections amid the rise of Eurosceptic candidates.
Italy is likely to see an early vote, after the resignation of Matteo Renzi last month, and the Five Star Movement has vowed that if it wins power it will hold a referendum on whether Italy should leave the Eurozone.
Although many polls indicate that far right candidates are still behind, nothing should be taken for granted after Trump won the U.S. presidency and Britain voted to leave the EU. Expect to see more pressure on the Euro and look out for parity against the dollar in the first six months.
Will OPEC finally balance the oil market?
After hitting a low of $27 a barrel in February 2016, Brent prices more than doubled by the end of year and many investment banks still see further increase in prices for 2017.
OPEC’s decision to cut its output by 1.2 million barrels a day starting January, and non-OPEC producers to cut 558K barrels for the next six months to drain record global oil inventories led Brent prices to post its first yearly increase since 2012.
Whether more appreciation is to be seen in 2017 will depend on multiple factors, and the biggest one currently looming is compliance to production cuts. It’s in no one’s interest not to comply, but historic figures show that delivering on previous production cuts has been poor.
U.S. producers are another element to be focused on, how fast shale may come back is a key component to be considered in the price equation.
Although Trump has made the energy sector part of his economic growth plan, I believe it won’t have a lot of impact if prices don’t hold up. The dollar strength will likely impact the demand side, as continued strength will make oil more expensive in other currencies.
With all these unknows we will likely see prices moving in tight ranges in the first quarter until we get a clearer picture.
E-Financial
EFCC Seeks Suspension, Prosecution of Banks for Aiding N162Bn Crypto Scams

Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has called for the suspension and prosecution of deposit banks, Fintechs and microfinance banks aiding and abetting fraudsters in defrauding Nigerians through fraudulent schemes.

Wilson Uwujaren, director of Public Affairs of the Commission, made the call in Abuja, on the sidelines of a recent news briefing about negligence and compromise of the financial institutions that cost victims billions of naira.
Uwujaren said that the commission uncovered widespread compromise within Nigeria’s financial system, involving an N18.7 billion investment scam and fraudulent transactions of N162 billion in cryptocurrencies.
He accused one new-generation bank, six Fintechs and some microfinance banks of aiding and abetting fraudsters in laundering their proceeds.
“It is worrisome that investigations by the commission showed that cryptocurrency transactions to the tune of N162 billion passed through a new generation bank without any due diligence.
“Investigations also showed that a single customer maintained 960 accounts in the new generation bank, and all the accounts were used for fraudulent purposes.”
He said that the financial institutions clearly compromised banking procedures and allowed the fraudsters to safely change their ill-gotten gains into digital assets and move them to safe destinations.
“The Commission is calling on regulatory bodies to bring financial institutions to compulsory compliance with regulations in the areas of Know Your Customers (KYC), Customer Due Diligence (CDD), Suspicious Transaction Reports (STRs) and others.
“Deposit money banks, Fintechs and microfinance banks found to be aiding and abetting fraudsters should be suspended and referred to the EFCC for thorough investigation and possible prosecution,” he said.
He said that the scams of N18.7 billion were in two categories, adding that the first was a syndicate of fraudsters that employed an airline discount scheme to lure their victims.
The second one, according to him, involved a company named Fred and Farid Investment Limited, simply called FF Investment, which lured Nigerians into a bogus investment arrangement.
“The modality of the fraudsters in the airline scam involved a string of carefully devised airline discount information that any unsuspecting foreign traveller will fall for.
“What they do is to advertise a discount system in the purchase of flight tickets of a particular foreign carrier.
“The payment module is designed in such a way that their victims would be convinced that the payment is actually made into the account of the airline.
“No sooner is the payment made than the passenger’s entire funds in his bank account are emptied.”
He said that over 700 victims had fallen into the trap of fraudsters through the scheme with a total loss of N651.1 million.
Uwujaren said that the commission succeeded in recovering and returning N33.63 million to victims of the scam and cautioned Nigerians to be more vigilant.
The second scheme, according to him, involved a company named Fred and Farid Investment Limited, simply called FF Investment, which lured Nigerians into bogus investment arrangements.
“More than 200,000 victims have been defrauded in this regard. A total sum of N18.1 billion was raked in through nine companies offering diverse investment packages.”
Uwujaren said that foreign nationals are behind the schemes, with three Nigerian accomplices who have been arrested and charged in court.
E-Financial
Fitch Downgrades Afreximbank to ‘BB+’/Stable Amid Concerns Over Ghana’s Debt

Fitch Ratings has downgraded African Export-Import Bank’s (Afreximbank) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘BB+’ from ‘BBB-’.

Fitch also downgraded Afreximbank’s Short-Term IDR to ‘B’, from ‘F3’, and the long-term ratings on the bank’s global medium-term note programme and debt issuance to ‘BB+’, from ‘BBB-’.
The global rating institution subsequently withdrew the bank’s ratings.
In a statement posted on its website, Fitch explained that the downgrade “reflects our revision of Afreximbank’s policy importance risk to ‘medium’ from ‘low’ following the announcement of an agreement on Ghana’s debt to Afreximbank in the context of Ghana’s broader restructuring”.
It said, “This has led us to revise our assessment of Afreximbank’s business profile to ‘high risk’ from ‘medium risk’, which resulted in an overall business environment notching of -3 (-2 previously).”
Essentially, a BB+ /Stable rating from Fitch is considered non-investment grade, also known as high-yield or “junk”.
The statement added, “Fitch has chosen to withdraw the ratings for commercial reasons. Fitch will no longer provide ratings or analytical coverage for the bank.”
In arriving at its decision, Fitch stated, “Afreximbank and Ghana announced in December 2025 that they had reached an agreement in principle with respect to Afreximbank’s $750 million sovereign loan to Ghana.
“The IMF stated that the deal is in line with the comparability of treatment under Ghana’s official creditor committee. We view this as evidence that Afreximbank did not benefit from its preferred creditor status (PCS).”
It said, “While we had not previously given any uplift in our solvency assessment for PCS, the de-facto preferential treatment in a broader sense that Afreximbank, along with most other multilateral development banks, benefit from was previously factored into our assessment of the bank’s policy importance.
“The bank’s inclusion in Ghana’s restructuring underlines its weakening policy importance, in our view.”
The rating institution also said, “Our latest assessment of Afreximbank’s ‘high’ business profile risk underpins the ‘high risk’ quality of governance assessment, and ‘high’ strategy risk.
“The ‘high risk’ business environment assessment reflects the bank’s exposure to a ‘high risk’ operating environment with weak credit quality, low income per capita and high political risk in the countries of operation.”
It explained that the ratings were driven by the bank’s Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) of ‘bb+’, reflecting the lower of the solvency (bbb+) and liquidity (a) assessments and its ‘high risk’ business environment.
The statement added that the solvency assessment balanced the bank’s ‘strong’ capitalisation and ‘moderate’ risk profile.
Fitch stated, “Afreximbank’s ‘bbb+’ solvency assessment reflects both ‘strong’ capitalisation and ‘moderate’ solvency risks. Our assessment of capitalisation is underpinned by a ‘moderate’ usable capital to risk-weighted assets (21 per cent at end-2024) ratio, a ‘strong’ equity to assets and guarantees ratio (19 per cent) and ‘excellent’ internal capital generation.
“The ‘moderate’ solvency risks assessment reflects ‘high’ credit risk, ‘weak’ risk management policies, ‘low’ concentration risk and ‘very low’ equity risk.
“Afreximbank’s ‘a’ liquidity assessment reflects the ‘strong’ quality of treasury assets, measured by the share of treasury assets rated ‘AA-’ to ‘AAA’ (50 per cent at end-2024 and we expect it to remain above the ‘strong’ threshold of 40 per cent), and a ‘moderate’ liquidity buffer (defined as liquid assets-to-short-term debt, at 95 per cent at end-2024).
“The bank’s liquidity profile is enhanced by its access to capital markets and diversified funding sources, including credit lines ($2.1 billion, of which $0.6 billion was committed at end-2024) and collateral deposits. The short duration of the loan portfolio also contains liquidity needs.”
Fitch also stated that it “assesses shareholders’ capacity to support Afreximbank at ‘bb-’, based on the average rating of key shareholders (ARKS) accounting for more than 50 per cent of the bank’s capital.
“The sovereign upgrades of Egypt and Nigeria, Afreximbank’s two largest shareholders, in April 2025 improved the ARKS to ‘B+’ from ‘B’.
“Credit risk mitigants on callable capital (covering 40 per cent of $4.3 billion) enhance the support capacity by one notch to ‘bb-’.
“The support assessment also reflects the ‘strong’ propensity of shareholders to support the bank, which has been consistently demonstrated by ongoing capital injections and dividend reinvestments.”
E-Financial
FBNQuest Merchant Bank Rebrands as Quest Merchant Bank

FBNQuest Merchant Bank Limited has completed a change of name and will now operate as Quest Merchant Bank Limited, following the receipt of all required corporate and regulatory approvals.

The name change does not affect the Bank’s legal or going-concern status, management, or the nature of its business. Quest Merchant Bank Limited remains a duly licensed merchant bank, regulated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and continues to deliver its full suite of merchant banking, advisory, and capital markets services to clients.
Commenting on the development, the Ag. Managing Director/CEO, Afolabi Olorode, stated: “This name change represents a pivotal milestone in the rich history of the Bank and a deliberate strategic repositioning that reflects our resilience, strong track record, and long-term growth ambitions. While our name has evolved, our commitment to our clients, stakeholders, and regulators remains unwavering.”
As part of the transition, the Bank is updating its branding, communications, and digital platforms to reflect the new name. During this period, some legacy references may remain visible across select touchpoints as updates are progressively completed.
All existing contracts, client relationships, and obligations of the Bank remain valid, binding, and fully enforceable following the name change.
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