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FXTM Analysis: Volatility Elevated Ahead Of May’s Brexit Speech

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Hussein Sayed, FXTM Chief Market Strategist comments on U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s has no interest in partial departure which suggests we’re heading towards a “Hard Brexit”:

Financial markets are anxiously awaiting the U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech later today where she will lay out a detailed divorce plan from the EU.

A lot of reports were leaked since Sunday on what to expect her to say, and the most interesting part is that she has no interest in partial departure which suggests we’re heading towards a “Hard Brexit”.

Traders were very fast to react, sending the pound 1.6% lower on Monday to trade below 1.20.

However, the recovery in early Asian trade Tuesday indicates that a lot of the bad news is already priced in, and for the pound to fall substantially lower it requires more than just signs of a Hard Brexit plan.

If the Supreme Court decided that May needs to secure the consent of Parliament before triggering article 50, potentially delaying Brexit for a couple of months, this is likely to provide Sterling with a boost by unwinding many short positions.

Traders should be aware that Sterling won’t be a one way play and volatility could be elevated to extreme levels.

On the data front, U.K. CPI is expected to hit 1.4% in December, up 0.2% from November and 0.5% from October’s reading.

This will not only mark the highest inflation rate since mid-2014 but the pace of inflation escalation is pulling the U.K.’s real interest rates even lower. Of course, this is going to be a challenge for the BoE, but if it indicates anything, it is that interest rates next move is only upwards, leaving monetary policy with very few options to support the economy if needed.

The safe haven Yen is the major beneficiary of the heightened uncertainty over the U.K.’s Hard Brexit scenario and Trump’s policies. USDJPY has fallen for the seventh straight day, and declined by more than 4.3% from its January 3rd peak. The fall in bond yields worldwide will continue to lend some support for the Yen, but whenever this trade is over I expect the Yen to weaken again.

The U.S. dollar is falling against all its major peers with the index dropping below 101. There’s no fundamental reason for the selloff and I don’t think the dollar’s rally is over yet, but the “Trump trade” has clearly cooled down in the past couple of days as markets still have many unanswered questions regarding future fiscal policies. Let’s hope we get some answers during Friday’s inauguration.

 

 


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E-Financial

FCMB Turns Normal Banking into Rewards with New Mobile App Upgrade

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First City Monument Bank (FCMB) has introduced a set of new features on its mobile app, led by a reward points system that turns everyday transactions into tangible benefits for customers.

FCMB Turns Normal Banking into Rewards with New Mobile App Upgrade

With this update, FCMB shifts the focus from routine banking to value creation, giving customers a stronger reason to engage, transact, and stay within its digital ecosystem.

At the centre of the upgrade is the Reward Points feature, which allows customers to earn and redeem points on transactions made in the app. The more customers use the platform, the more value they unlock, creating a direct link between daily banking activity and real-life rewards.

Beyond the rewards, the enhanced app introduces a Regal Premium Lifestyle Subscription that offers users access to curated lifestyle benefits across travel, dining, and entertainment, plus a three-month free transfer for new-to-bank customers.

Customers can now access mutual fund investments directly within the app, helping them grow wealth without multiple platforms. This feature reinforces FCMB’s commitment to empowering customers with accessible financial tools.

To improve customer experience, the app now includes “Chat with Temi”, an intelligent in-app support feature that delivers instant assistance and quicker issue resolution.

Speaking on the update, Oladipo Alabede, divisional head, Payments and Solutions, said: “At FCMB, we are constantly innovating to meet the evolving needs of our customers. These features are designed to provide convenience, reward loyalty, and empower our customers to do more with their finances, right from their mobile devices.”

In line with its financial inclusion drive, FCMB has simplified account upgrades from Tier 1 to Tier 2, allowing customers to access enhanced banking services without visiting a branch.

Additionally, the introduction of instant virtual card request and activation ensures customers can immediately create and use secure digital cards for online transactions.

Adetunji Lamidi, divisional head, Personal Banking, emphasised the Bank’s digital transformation journey: “These upgrades reflect our technology-driven strategy to build a smarter, more intuitive banking platform. By integrating intelligent support systems like Temi and enabling instant services such as virtual card activation, we are redefining convenience and accessibility in banking.”

This comprehensive upgrade reflects FCMB’s ongoing commitment to innovation, customer focus, and digital excellence, positioning the mobile app as a one-stop platform for seamless, rewarding, and future-ready banking.

Customers are encouraged to update or download the FCMB Mobile App today from their app store to use these new features and take full control of their financial journey.

 


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Despite Warnings, FG Draws Down $1.5Bn as First Tranche of FAB $5Bn Loan Deal

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Nigeria has accessed the first tranche of its $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement with First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), drawing about $1.5 billion under the deal approved by the national assembly in March.

Despite Warnings, FG Draws Down $1.5Bn as First Tranche of FAB $5Bn Loan Deal

This is despite caution by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  against proceeding with the proposed $5 billion structured Total Return Swap (TRS) financing program with First Abu Dhabi Bank.

IMF said that the complex derivative-based financing agreements are often opaque and carry hidden financial risks.

According to Bloomberg on Friday however, the federal government received the funds in the past two weeks through a structured total return swap (TRS) transaction with the United Arab Emirates’ largest lender, citing people familiar with the matter.

On March 31, the national assembly approved President Bola Tinubu’s request to secure up to $6 billion in external borrowing.

The borrowing plan comprised two facilities from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United Kingdom, including a structured TRS financing programme of up to $5 billion from First Abu Dhabi Bank.

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Tinubu had said the proposed borrowing would increase Nigeria’s public debt stock, which stood at $110.3 billion (about N159.2 trillion) as of December 31, 2025.

The drawdown comes despite concerns raised by Fitch Ratings over the financing arrangement.

Fitch warned that while such transactions can provide liquidity, diversify funding sources and lower borrowing costs, they often fall outside conventional debt-reporting frameworks and could weaken transparency and legislative oversight.

The rating agency also said the structure could expose Nigeria to additional foreign exchange risks if domestic bond yields rise or the naira depreciates.

Also, the International Monetary Fund has cautioned that the derivative-based financing arrangements are often opaque and complex, making it difficult to assess the full extent of governments’ debt obligations.


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Paystack Unveils AI-powered Payments Tools

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Paystack has launched Paystack Index, an experimental AI-powered payments tool, enabling users in Nigeria to complete everyday transactions through AI assistants such as ChatGPT and Claude.

The product allows users to buy airtime, send money via Zap by Paystack and order food from Chowdeck using simple text prompts. Instead of switching between multiple apps, users can instruct an AI assistant to execute transactions directly.

Paystack Index acts as a bridge between AI agents, merchants and Paystack’s payments infrastructure, while ensuring users retain control of authorised transactions.

The company said it does not store sensitive financial information such as card details, PINs or bank account credentials.

Developed with support from TSG Labs, Paystack’s innovation arm, the product builds on Paystack Checkout and Zap and forms part of the company’s broader work on AI-enabled commerce.

It is initially available to selected Zap users in Nigeria through an early-access beta programme and currently supports airtime and data purchases, wallet funding, money transfers and food orders.

Paystack said the launch reflects its belief that AI agents are emerging as a new interface for commerce, enabling users to move from prompts to real-world transactions.

Announced by co-founder and chief executive officer Shola Akinlade, the product positions AI assistants as execution layers for payments and commerce, rather than just tools for information and recommendations.

The launch comes amid rising AI adoption in Nigeria. According to a Google-Ipsos survey, 88% of Nigerians surveyed said they had used generative AI in the past year, while 62% said they used it for everyday tasks such as planning trips, meals or workouts.

The launch also follows Paystack’s recent restructuring under The Stack Group (TSG), which created dedicated business units for merchant payments, consumer transactions, banking services and emerging technologies.

Paystack plans to expand Paystack Index to more merchants, services and African markets, including Ghana, Kenya and South Africa, as it evaluates user behaviour and AI-powered checkout experiences.


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