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Economy: Trump Effect” Encourages Investors to Seek Riskier Assets

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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on Wall Street may be poised to trade higher if the bullish momentum from Asia and Europe coupled with the “Trump effect” encourages investors to seek riskier assets:

The prospects of U.S President Donald Trump unleashing a “phenomenal” tax plan in the coming weeks have boosted risk sentiment consequently elevating global stocks. Asian shares cemented gains during early trading on Monday with the renewed Trump-on trading mood propelling European markets into the green territory.

Wall Street may be poised to trade higher if the bullish momentum from Asia and Europe coupled with the “Trump effect” encourages investors to seek riskier assets.

Although there is a possibility of stocks following a positive trajectory this week from the rekindled risk appetite, the threat of Trump’s “phenomenal” tax plan falling short of market expectations may limit upside gains.

Dollar Revived by Trump
The Greenback staged a sharp rebound last week after U.S President Donald Trump promised a “phenomenal” tax plan which was seen as supportive of US economic growth. It is becoming increasingly clear that the Dollar’s value has been dictated by Trump this quarter with optimism over fiscal stimulus, infrastructure spending and tax cuts fuelling the bull rally.

Expectations of higher US interest rates in the future have also played a part in supporting the Greenback with prices likely to remain buoyed in the medium to longer term.

While prices may be supported in the longer term, there is a risk of bears attacking the Dollar in the short term if the pending tax announcement in the coming weeks leaves participants empty handed.

From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index remains slightly pressured on the daily charts with weakness below 100.50 encouraging a further decline lower back towards 100.00.

Yen Remains a Friend in Times of Uncertainty
The Japanese Yen found itself exposed to downside risks against the Dollar on Monday after the combination of soft domestic data from Japan and the risk-on trading environment enticed bears to install repeated rounds of selling.

Japans economy grew by 0.2% in the final quarter of 2016 which continues to highlight how soft consumer spending, tepid inflation and external headwinds have impacted the third largest economy in the world. With uncertainty still a dominant theme in the longer term, the appetite for the Yen may heighten consequently punishing Japanese exporters further.

The USDJPY continues to fulfil the prerequisites of a bearish trend on the daily charts as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Weakness below 113.50 created from risk aversion could trigger a further selloff lower towards 112.50.

Currency spotlight – EURUSD
The slew of elections in Europe combined with the rising threat of Eurosceptic parties disrupting the unity of the Eurozone has exposed the Euro to heavy losses.

Sentiment remains bearish towards the EURUSD and recent reports of Greece’s debt crisis returning with full forces has encouraged bearish investors to attack the currency repeatedly.

The horrible combination of heightened political risks, uncertainty and a resurgent Dollar in the longer term could send the EURUSD lower towards 1.0500. Technical traders may observe how the EURUSD reacts to the 1.0650 resistance with weakness acting as a signal for sellers to send prices lower towards 1.0500.

Commodity spotlight – WTI Crude
WTI Crude remains entangled in a fierce tug of war as optimism over OPEC cutting oil production coupled with fears of U.S shale pumping oil incessantly keeps investors on edge.

While last week’s unexpected draw in U.S gasoline inventories bolstered oil as optimism rose over demand remaining healthy in the world’s largest oil market, fears of U.S shale impacting the OPEC agreement capped oil prices below $54.

Oil markets may be injected with extreme levels of volatility this quarter if fears resurface over the oversupply in the global markets making a return.

Technical traders may observe how WTI crude reacts to the $54 resistance level with weakness potentially opening a path lower towards $52.


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E-Financial

BVN Enrollments Hit 69.55m- NIBSS

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Nigeria’s Bank Verification Number (BVN) database expanded to 69.55 million as of July 5 2026 from 69.32 million in June 2026, according to latest data released by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS).

BVN Enrollments Hit 69.55m- NIBSS

BVN is an 11-digit biometric identification system introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria and managed by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) to secure customer accounts and reduce fraud.

This means that BVN enrolments increased by 228,947 between June and July 5 this year.

With the BVN database standing at 67.8 million as of December 31, 2025, it also means that the database grew by 1.75 million between the end of last year and July 5, 2026.

Specifically, with less than 1.8 million BVN enrolments so far recorded for this year, it is looking highly unlikely that BVN registrations at the end of 2026 will come close to the 4.3 million total registrations recorded in 2025.

Analysts note that while the expansion in the BVN database last year was largely driven by the introduction of the NonResident Bank Verification Number (NRBVN) initiative, which enables Nigerians in the diaspora to do their BVN enrolment remotely, thereby removing physical barriers and boosting cross-border financial engagement, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in March this year, announced a revised BVN regulatory framework, that saw it introducing stricter controls on suspected fraudulent transactions, BVN enrollment, and data access within the banking system.

According to the regulator, the amendments to the BVN framework, which came into effect on May 1, 2026, were aimed at strengthening fraud monitoring, improving identity management within the financial system and safeguarding the integrity of banking transactions, by strengthening identity verification and ensuring that BVN registration aligns with legally recognised age thresholds.

Thus, under the revised BVN framework, the apex bank introduced a stricter age requirement for BVN enrolment, limiting registration to 18-year-old individuals and above.

Also, under the new framework, customers will only be allowed to change the phone number associated with their BVN once. The CBN further stated: “Under the new guidelines, financial institutions are required to establish and maintain a temporary watch-list for BVNs linked to suspected fraudulent transactions reported within the banking system.

“A BVN may remain on this temporary Watch-list for a maximum period of twentyfour (24) hours, during which the BVN owner shall be contacted to provide clarification regarding the identified transaction(s).”

Launched on February 14, 2014, by the CBN in collaboration with the Bankers’ Committee, the NIBSS, and the German firm Dermalog, the BVN scheme was designed to capture the biometrics of all bank customers and provide each with a unique 11-digit identification number that can be verified across the Nigerian banking industry.

 


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CBN Warns against Rejection of N100 Banknotes

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has reaffirmed that the standard N100 banknote remains legal tender across the country, warning that its rejection by individuals, businesses and institutions violates the law.

CBN Warns against Rejection of N100 Banknotes

The clarification follows reports that some members of the public have refused to accept the standard N100 note over concerns about its legal tender status following the introduction of the commemorative N100 banknote issued to mark Nigeria’s centenary.

In a statement signed by Mrs. Hakama Sidi-Ali, acting director of Corporate Communications, the apex bank stressed that “both the commemorative N100 banknote and the standard N100 banknote are valid legal tender and must be accepted for all transactions nationwide.”

The CBN explained that the commemorative N100 note was introduced to celebrate Nigeria’s centenary and did not replace the existing standard N100 banknote.

The CBN cautioned individuals, businesses, financial institutions and other economic agents against rejecting the standard N100 note, noting that such action contravenes the provisions of the CBN Act and undermines public confidence in the national currency.

It warned that appropriate enforcement measures would be taken against any person or organisation found violating the law.

The apex bank reaffirmed its commitment to protecting the integrity of the naira, maintaining confidence in all duly issued banknotes and ensuring the smooth circulation of currency across the country.

The CBN also urged members of the public to continue accepting and transacting with all banknotes legally issued by the Bank and advised anyone seeking further clarification to use its official communication channels.


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GCR Upgrades FCMB Asset Mgt Rating on Disciplined Liquidity, Consistent Earnings

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FCMB Asset Management Limited (FCMBAM), the asset management arm of FCMB Group Plc, has received an upgrade to its national scale long-term and short-term issuer ratings of A(NG) and A1(NG), from A-(NG) and A2(NG), by GCR Ratings, a leading pan-African credit rating agency.

The outlook on the ratings remains stable, said the rating agency.

The upgrade is anchored on FCMBAM’s competitive resilience and financial discipline, alongside the strengthened credit profile of FCMB Group.

GCR highlighted FCMBAM’s decade-long track record of strong performance, well-established brand franchise, diversified product suite and robust distribution network as key drivers of its standalone strength.

These are further supported by consistent earnings growth and a disciplined, unleveraged balance sheet, it said.

According to GCR, FCMBAM’s competitive position is supported by “its relatively long track record, strong brand franchise, established product and geographical distribution network and cross-selling opportunities,” with the rating agency noting that FCMBAM ranks among the top five asset managers in Nigeria, with an estimated five per cent share of a fragmented market as of 31 December.

The Company’s financial performance underpinned the upgrade, with revenue growing by 30 per cent and operating cash flow increasing by 13 per cent, enabling the business to be fully funded without recourse to debt.

Liquidity strengthened further, with liquidity sources versus uses improving to 5x as of December 2025, from 3.6x a year earlier, while the EBITDA margin edged up to over 58 per cent.

Commenting on the upgrade, the Chief Executive Officer of FCMB Asset Management, James Ilori, said: “This upgrade is an important external validation of a strategy we have pursued with discipline over many years: building an investment franchise that performs reliably, governs itself rigorously, and earns trust in every market cycle. It speaks to the strength of our membership of FCMB Group and to a culture that holds itself to local and global standards of risk management and capital stewardship.

“As Nigeria’s asset management industry enters a new era of higher capital thresholds and rising investor expectations, we intend to lead from the front – ahead of regulatory timelines, ahead in digital transformation and ahead in the outcomes we deliver for the clients who trust us to assist them in achieving their investment objectives.”


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