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FXTM Analysis: Sterling, Trump & Gold In Focus

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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on Sterling ahead of the UK general election and Trump’s anticipated “phenomenal” tax reforms and the Dollar.

 The Brexit-related jitters may return with a vengeance in the coming weeks if complications arise from the European Union government toughening their negotiation positions. Official Brexit talks have yet to commence, but the EU has already dished out fresh demands, focusing on residency rights and even limits on financial services.

While Theresa May continues to suggest that a Conservative victory in the UK general elections in June may bolster her negotiating powers, the repeated demands from the European Union indicates otherwise with the bloc looking to play hardball.

May is scheduled for a preliminary Brexit showdown with the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, and the EU’s Chief Brexit Negotiator, Michel Barnier, this evening which could be an early test. With the topic of the £50 billion Brexit bill likely to be key in the meeting, this Downing Street dinner could be one to remember.

Sterling/Dollar remains trapped in a range on the daily charts, but repeated weakness back below 1.2775 could open a path lower towards 1.2600. In an alternative scenario, a daily close above 1.2875 may open a path towards 1.3000.

Trump Tax Announcement In Focus
A feeling of anticipation has gripped financial markets today as investors prepare for Trump’s big announcement clarifying how and when his “phenomenal” tax reforms will play out.

The proposed tax cuts in the States have attributed to the impressive stock market rally with Trump expected to trim corporate income tax rate from 35% to 15%. Although there is the possibility of the Dollar stabilizing in the short term if Trump delivers, concerns still linger over the plan being light on details. Even if Trump offers markets the eagerly anticipated insight on tax reforms, recent reports from the US Congress Joint Committee on Taxation suggest that tax reform may reduce government revenues by $2 trillion over the next 10 years, which may weigh on sentiment.

The possibility of corporations actually paying more from the tax cuts may encourage participants to carefully re-evaluate Trump’s tax reforms.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
The renewed appetite for risk has left safe-haven investments in the dust with Gold losing some of its safe-haven glimmers this week.

Sellers have exploited the risk-on trading environment to install heavy rounds of selling on the yellow metal with prices hovering around $1260 as of writing. Although geopolitical tensions and overall uncertainty may support the yellow metal in the longer term, short term bears could reclaim control below $1260.

If the Macron-inspired risk-on rally persists this week, then Gold may be exposed to further losses.

From a technical standpoint, the yellow metal is coming under increasing selling pressure on the daily charts. A breakdown and daily close below $1260 should encourage a further decline towards $1240. In an alternative scenario, bulls need to keep above $1260 for a further incline back towards $1280.


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E-Financial

ACAMB Educates Content Creator to Curb Misinformation on Bank Recapitalisation

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In a bid to foster accurate public discourse as well as protect the stability of the financial sector, the Association of Corporate and Marketing Professionals in Banks (ACAMB) has stepped in to educate renowned content creator, Unofficial Osas, following his misrepresentation of facts concerning the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) recapitalisation drive, and subsequent invitation by the Nigerian Police Force.

ACAMB Educates Content Creator to Curb Misinformation on Bank Recapitalisation

ACAMB

The intervention by ACAMB led to the successful retraction of a misleading video regarding the CBN recapitalisation policy, demonstrating the Association’s commitment to its core mandate of public enlightenment.

In his official apology video, the content creator stated, “I was invited by the Nigerian police force national cyber crime centre in Abuja over the video I posted on the 15th of December, where i spoke about 12 banks that were shut down in relation to the CBN recapitalisation policy. I would like to offer an official retraction of that video and want to reiterate that no bank is shutting down.

“As a matter of fact, most of the banks have now met the ₦500 billion minimum capital base for banks with international and the N200bn for national banks recapitalisation requirements, so no bank is shutting down.

“I want to specifically appreciate ACAMB. They were very professional in handling this case and did well to educate and enlighten me on the recapitalisation process. I am now better informed and know better”

Commenting on the resolution, President of ACAMB, Jide Sipe, reinforced the Association’s dedication to protecting the integrity of the banking sector. “ACAMB stands for the restoration of professional banking ethics and public confidence through seamless information management and public enlightenment.

“We believe that an informed public is an empowered public. By engaging Unofficial Osas, we ensured that accurate information regarding the resilience and strength of our banks was disseminated to the millions of Nigerians who follow him.”

The Intervention shows ACAMB is dedicated to evolving strategies that enhance and sustain a good image for the nation’s banking sector as well as assist in fostering better banking habits among Nigerians.


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FirstCap MD says Payment Security Remains Biggest Barrier to Bankable Gas and Power Projects

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Ukandu E. Ukandu, Managing Director/CEO of FirstCap Limited, a leading investment banking firm and subsidiary of First HoldCo Plc., has reaffirmed that payment security remains the most decisive factor in determining whether gas and power projects in Nigeria secure financing.

He shared this perspective during a panel discussion on project bankability at the 2026 SPE Lagos Energy Week.

Ukandu noted that although several risks influence financing decisions, payment risk consistently emerges as the key barrier to financial close.
“Every major risk matter, but payment risk is the ultimate deal‑breaker. Without strong payment security and disciplined collections, no project can attract sustainable financing,” he said.

He explained that lenders typically evaluate three core risk pillars, payment reliability, foreign‑exchange exposure, and contract enforceability, with payment reliability presenting the greatest challenge across Nigeria’s energy value chain. Persistent collection inefficiencies, rising arrears, and liquidity pressures continue to weaken investor confidence.

To enhance payment security, Ukandu highlighted mechanisms widely used by financiers, including letters of credit, bank guarantees, escrow accounts with payment‑waterfall structures, reserve and sinking funds, sovereign or sub‑sovereign support, and take‑or‑pay offtake agreements.

Addressing foreign exchange risk, he noted that volatility remains difficult to manage, especially for projects with dollar‑denominated costs but naira‑denominated revenues. Lenders typically mitigate this through foreign exchange ‑linked tariff indexation, partial dollarisation for credible industrial offtakers, escrow protections, selective hedging, and foreign exchange reserve buffers.

However, he cautioned that indexation alone seldom eliminates exposure due to regulatory limits and timing delays.

On legal and regulatory certainty, Ukandu stressed the need for contracts that are enforceable and clearly structured, particularly around take‑or‑pay obligations, termination payments, step‑in rights, and dispute‑resolution frameworks. He added that factors such as tariff adjustments, licence changes, and price controls can significantly affect project viability if they are not fully addressed at the contracting stage.

While fiscal incentives such as tax holidays and accelerated depreciation can strengthen project economics, Ukandu emphasised that they cannot compensate for weak fundamentals.
“Incentives make a good project better, but they do not make a weak project bankable. Cash‑flow reliability and disciplined foreign exchange management must come first,” he said. He also noted that naira‑based incentives may lose value if project revenues are not indexed.

He concluded by urging industry players to prioritise revenue security from the earliest stages of project structuring: “Protect returns at the source. Build strong offtake arrangements with solid credit support and currency alignment to ensure cash is received in full and on time.”


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Sterling HoldCo Starts Allotment of Oversubscribed Public Offer Shares

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Sterling Financial Holdings Company Plc (Sterling HoldCo) has begun allotting 12,581,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each at ₦7.00 per share from its 2025 Public Offer.

Sterling HoldCo Starts Allotment of Oversubscribed Public Offer Shares

Sterling HoldCo

The process follows Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) approvals.

The offer, opened September 15, 2025, drew 18,280 applications for 16.84 billion shares worth ₦117.88 billion—109.79 per cent oversubscribed.

Valid applications from 18,276 shareholders totalled 13.81 billion shares; all compliant applicants receive full allotments.

Refunds for rejects/excess, plus interest, process via RTGS/NIBSS by February 17, 2026, handled by Pace Registrars Limited.

Shares credit to CSCS accounts by the same date; new accounts held in pool pending documentation.

The raise bolsters capital for banking subsidiaries, injects ₦10 billion into SterlingFI Wealth Management to meet SEC rules, and funds credit expansion, innovation, and support for businesses/households.

Strong Financials, Diversified Growth

FY25 interim results show 99 per cent profit before tax growth; gross earnings up 46 per cent to ₦476.5 billion; assets at ₦3.92 trillion; deposits up 18 per cent to ₦2.98 trillion; shareholders’ funds up 39 per cent to ₦424 billion.

Cost-to-income ratio improved to 63 per cent from 72 per cent.

Subsidiaries—Sterling Bank Limited (conventional), The Alternative Bank Limited (non-interest, 150+ branches)—comply with CBN capital rules.

Initiatives include Mata Zalla (women tricycle training) and Plateau agriculture programme.

The offer attracted first-time retail investors, broadening ownership.

Sterling HoldCo welcomes new shareholders, poised for sustained growth and economic impact.


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