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Shedding Light on the African Shadow Economy

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Daniel Monehin, Division President for Sub-Saharan Africa at Mastercard
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Daniel Monehin, Division President for Sub-Saharan Africa at Mastercard discusses the Grey Economy at the Mastercard Prepaid and Government Conference 2017

The Informal Economy, or if you have a penchant for the more colourful descriptor, the “Shadow” or “Grey” Economy, is typically the term used to refer to the portion of a country’s economy that transact exclusively in cash, thus making it infinitely more difficult to include these economic activities in any form of official statistics, oversight, taxation and regulation.

According to the OECD, two-thirds of the world’s workers will be employed in the Grey Economy by 2020. The issue is compounded when you consider the significant contribution the Grey Economy makes to any emerging market’s GDP.

By and large, it’s an issue created by the lack of inclusion, and the lack of access to formal financial infrastructure, especially in economies where wealth and assets are not distributed equitably. Folding the informal sector in with the formal sector is probably one of the most significant policy-making challenges 21st century governments face.

First coined in the 1970s, the Grey Economy was thought to be a temporary phenomenon which would shrink, even disappear, once countries achieved sufficient levels of economic growth, and modern industrial development.

Today, more than 40 years after its characterization, the Grey Economy can no longer be considered a “temporary phenomenon”; if economic growth is not accompanied by equitable income distribution, or an equal rise in employment levels, then we see an increase in the growth of the Grey Economy.

In fact, in Sub-Saharan Africa, informal employment accounts for a significant share of total non-agricultural employment, ranging from 33 percent in South Africa to 82 percent in Mali. Admittedly, by the very virtue of the nature of the Grey Economy, it is impossible to provide anything more than estimates in this regard.

Most citizens in emerging economies don’t join the informal economy by choice – it is very much a byproduct of the citizenry’s need for survival, providing for themselves and their families; it is essential for any human being to be able to have access to basic income generating activities.

Therein lies our opportunity – bringing this informal economy into the fold, by affording previously-excluded individuals access to basic financial services. While we don’t believe that the Grey Economy will ever be completely eliminated, we can certainly reduce the shadow-cash it generates by continuously building the tools that drive financial inclusion in all markets, not just the developing markets.

Mastercard has made tremendous inroads in several African markets, by equipping governments, local entrepreneurs, merchants, traders and the like with the tools to formalize payments through digitization and generate sustainable growth.

Our role at Mastercard is trying to lower, or even eliminate, the barrier to entry to the formal economy, and our spirits are buoyed by some of the successes we’ve had in the last few short months.

Consider a service like 2KUZE, launched in Kenya in January, or eKilimo, launched in Tanzania earlier in March – services that are connecting several thousand farmers, merchants, agents and large buyers in their respective markets to basic services for them to conduct their business, empower themselves and their employees, and providing for their families, transitioning from the informal to formal economy seemingly overnight.

By its very nature, the characteristics of a shadow/grey economy is largely negative – it can easily trap employees and enterprises alike in a spiral of low productivity and poverty. By working with our various governmental partners, Mastercard stands firm in its commitment to empower 100-million Africans to join the formal economy by 2020.

 


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CBN Dismisses  Polaris Bank Liquidation Claim

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Polaris Bank
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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has debunked rumours suggesting that Polaris Bank is undergoing liquidation, assuring the public that the country’s banking system remains stable and secure.

CBN Dismisses  Polaris Bank Liquidation Claim

Polaris Bank

The apex bank disclosed this in a post on X, where it shared a screenshot of a viral claim and flagged it as false.

It clarified that the claims, suggesting Polaris Bank had failed to meet recapitalisation requirements and was set for liquidation, are entirely false and do not reflect the current state of the Nigerian banking sector

“The Central Bank of Nigeria has noticed reports, in certain media outlets, about a recommendation for the Federal Government to take over some CBN-supervised financial institutions,” said Hakama Sidi-Ali, apex bank’s acting Director, Corporate Communications,  in a statement.

“To avoid any doubt, Nigerian banks are still safe and sound. The CBN advises the public to go about their daily lives without getting disturbed by reports regarding the health of Nigerian banks that have not come from the CBN.

“The CBN is fully equipped to carry out its statutory duty of ensuring the stability of Nigeria’s financial system. “We assure the general public and depositors that their funds are safe in Nigerian financial institutions. “Bank customers are therefore advised to proceed with their banking transactions as u

The clarification was after a viral post, claiming that Polaris Bank was facing liquidation for failing to meet the Bank’s recapitalisation requirements, and could soon lose its operating licence, with the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation set to take over the process.

It further alleged that founder of the Eleganza Group, Razaq Okoya, had made a bid to acquire and revive the bank, pending approval from regulators and shareholders.

Sharing a screenshot of the viral claim, however, the apex bank flagged it as “fake content.”

It clarified that the claims, suggesting Polaris Bank had failed to meet recapitalisation requirements and was set for liquidation did not reflect the current state of the Nigerian banking sector.

“This content is fake. Let the public be guided. The Nigerian Banking System is Safe and Secure,” the bank said.

On April 1, the CBN confirmed that 33 banks successfully met the revised minimum capital requirements under its recapitalisation programme, marking a significant milestone in strengthening the financial system.

 

 


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AfDB Okays $200m for Nigeria’s Digital Backbone, Others

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African Development Bank Group (AfDB) has approved a $200 million loan to Nigeria to support a landmark digital infrastructure initiative aimed at expanding broadband access, developing digital skills and driving large‑scale job creation.

AfDB Okays $200m for Nigeria’s Digital Backbone, Others

The financing will support the Digital Value Chain Infrastructure for Boosting Employment project, known as D‑VIBE or Project BRIDGE. The initiative seeks to deploy about 90 000 kilometres of new open‑access fibre optic cable across Nigeria, extending the national fibre backbone from roughly 30 000 km to about 120 000 km.

The expanded network will connect all 774 local government areas, including schools, hospitals, agro‑industrial zones, rural communities and commercial centres. It will also establish cross‑border digital links with Benin, Cameroon, Niger and Chad, strengthening regional integration.

Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and West Africa’s largest economy, with the digital sector increasingly contributing to gross domestic product growth. The project is expected to close major connectivity gaps, raise productivity and unlock job opportunities for young people.

D‑VIBE is structured as a public‑private partnership through a special purpose vehicle, with public ownership capped at between 25% and 49% and private sector participation ranging from 51% to 75%.

This structure is intended to address high fibre rollout costs, including construction and right‑of‑way challenges.

The African Development Bank loan forms part of an $800 million sovereign financing package, alongside $500 million from the World Bank and $100 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Total project financing is estimated at $2 billion, including a $25.79 million European Union grant, a $2.6 million Multilateral Cooperation Centre for Development Finance preparation grant and at least $1.2 billion in private sector investment.

“Nigeria has the talent, the market and the ambition, but lacked the backbone infrastructure to connect opportunity with potential,” said Abdul Kamara, Director General of the African Development Bank Group’s Nigeria Office.

“This project will deliver high‑speed connectivity nationwide and equip young people to build digital careers.”

Beyond physical infrastructure, the project will support affordable devices, large‑scale digital skills training and digital platforms in priority sectors. It also includes cybersecurity, competition reforms and resilience measures, including greater use of renewable and hybrid power.

D‑VIBE is expected to help create up to 2.8 million jobs and raise broadband penetration from 45% to around 70% by 2030. The project aligns with Nigeria’s Vision 2050 and continental development priorities.


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Nigeria’s Growth under Threat as Poverty Deepens, World Bank Warns

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World Bank has warned that Nigeria faces a deepening early childhood development crisis in health, nutrition, and learning, threatening long-term productivity and economic growth amid persistent poverty.

Nigeria’s Growth under Threat as Poverty Deepens, World Bank Warns

World Bank

In its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update, “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development,” the bank noted moderate 2026 growth driven by services like ICT, financial services, and real estate, following 4.0 per cent GDP expansion in 2025. Inflation eased to double digits via tight policy, stable exchange rates, and better food supply, while reserves hit $45.5 billion gross by end-2025, covering 8.7 months of imports.

Fiscal deficit widened slightly as non-oil revenues rose to 8.5 per cent of GDP from improved tax administration, e-filing, and VAT e-invoicing, though wage growth lagged inflation, leaving real incomes strained and poverty unchanged.

The bank highlighted poor outcomes with 110 of 1,000 children dying before age five, 40 per cent stunted, and 52 per cent developmentally off-track at school entry—gaps three times wider in poor households and exceeding 40 points between rich and poor. It urged investment in the first 2,000 days for better education, earnings, health, and cohesion.

Regionally, Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2026 growth forecast dipped to 4.1 per cent from 4.4 per cent due to Middle East conflict inflating fuel and fertiliser costs.

Finance Minister Wale Edun countered with recovery signs: falling inflation, rising non-oil revenues, declining debt-to-GDP, and stabilising naira via digital tracking, audits, and PPP shifts. Budget Director Tanimu Yakubu described reforms as correcting imbalances from subsidies and multiple rates, boosting FAAC revenues 40 per cent and reserves over $40 billion, with debt under 30 per cent of GDP.

NACCIMA President Jani Ibrahim called for data-driven strategies amid tax changes, inflation, and global tensions, eyeing AfCFTA, digital economy, and green investments for growth.


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