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FXTM Analysis: Sterling, Euro and Dollar In Focus

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on Sterling, Euro and Dollar.

Asian stocks retreated on Thursday following the mixed cues from Wall Street overnight, after the Federal Reserve signaled towards an increase in US interest rates later this year.

In Europe, equities were buoyed by corporate earnings and optimism over Emmanuel Macron winning the second round of the French Presidential election. Although Wall Street was pressured by the Fed hawks on Wednesday, Europe’s upside momentum and solid corporate earnings could help bulls claw back recent losses.

Sterling buoyed by solid Services PMI ‎
Sterling lazily strolled towards 1.2900 during trading on Thursday after UK Services PMI for April unexpectedly rose to a four-month high at 55.8.

With the construction, manufacturing and services sector in the UK all displaying signs of resilience against Brexit woes in April, Sterling could be supported in the short term.

With uncertainty still a dominant theme with regards to Brexit, investors may start to overlook the improving fundamentals with an increased focus on Brexit negotiations.

Hard Brexit fears remain rife with the current dispute over the €100 billion “Brexit bill” acting as the first major obstacle of many.

From a technical standpoint, the GBPUSD could appreciate towards 1.3000 if bulls maintain control above 1.2875. In an alternative scenario, repeated weakness below 1.2875 should encourage a decline towards 1.2775.

Dollar revived by Fed hawks ‎
The Greenback popped higher on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve surprised markets by maintaining a hawkish stance, despite the softening outlook for the US.

 Although economic data has been mixed and first quarter growth sluggish at 0.7%, the committee viewed this as transitory, with economic activity expanding at a moderate pace as the stance of monetary policy is adjusted.

With expectations heightened over the Federal Reserve raising US rates further, and the CME Group FedWatch tool displaying a 74% probability of a rate hike in June, the Dollar could remain buoyed.

Investors may direct their attention towards the pending US unemployment claims report, which could support the Dollar further if unemployment falls below estimates.

From a technical standpoint, although the Fed hawks inspired Dollar bulls on Thursday, the Dollar Index still remains under pressure on the daily charts.

A breakout above 99.40 should encourage a further incline towards 99.50 and 99.80 respectively. On the other hand, repeated weakness under 98.80 should open a path to 98.50.

Euro higher on Macron optimism
The Euro glided higher on Thursday as investors maintained optimism over Emmanuel Macron winning the second round of the French Presidential election this weekend.

Bullish investors also took advantage of the positive Services PMI data from Europe to propel the EURUSD towards 1.0930 as of writing.

With the current polls showing Macron holding a solid 20 point lead over Marine Le Pen, it may be safe to say that a Macron victory has already been “baked into” market pricing.

With the French Presidential election saga slowly coming to an end, investors may direct their focus towards the French parliamentary election on June 11 and 18.

Although the EURUSD is currently trading around five-month highs, the currency does feel undervalued, especially when factoring in how Economic data from Europe continues to exceed expectations.

I feel that political risk and uncertainty has dictated the value of the Euro this year with economic fundamentals becoming somewhat secondary.

While a Macron victory may send the EURUSD above 1.1000, an unanticipated Marine Le Pen triumph could expose prices to extreme downside risks, with parity still a possibility.


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E-Financial

Court Suspends Enforcement of FCCPC’s Reform on Loan Apps

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Federal court in Lagos has suspended the enforcement of Nigeria’s most comprehensive framework for regulating digital lending apps.

Court Suspends Enforcement of FCCPC’s Reform on Loan Apps

On April 15, Justice Ambrose Lewis-Allagoa of the Federal High Court in Lagos granted an interim injunction blocking the enforcement of the Digital, Electronic, Online, or Non-Traditional Consumer Lending Regulations 2025, better known as the DEON Regulations.

The order followed an urgent ex parte application filed the previous day by the Wireless Application Service Providers Association of Nigeria (WASPA Nigeria), the industry body representing wireless application service providers operating mainly within the telecoms ecosystem.

The suit targets twelve specific provisions of the text, covering licensing, sanctions, compliance obligations and data-handling rules, according to court documentation published by Lawyard.

Until the next hearing on April 27, 2026, the regulator cannot impose sanctions, enforce compliance directives, or issue new instructions to WASPA members.

The judge also barred the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) from interfering with the ongoing commercial operations of association members.

The case pits two actors whose respective mandates the Nigerian legal framework has never clearly separated.

On one side stands the FCCPC — the federal agency established in 2018 to enforce consumer protection and competition — which gazetted the DEON Regulations on July 21, 2025, under sections 17, 18 and 163 of its founding Act.

In a press statement dated September 3, 2025, Tunji Bello, executive vice chairman, FCCPC,  justified the rules by citing “a long history of complaints” involving exploitative practices, data breaches, abusive debt recovery, and harassment.

On the other side, WASPA Nigeria contests the very legitimacy of the FCCPC’s intervention, arguing that services tied to telecoms — airtime credit, data loans, mobile-financing products — fall exclusively under the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the telecoms regulator created by the Nigerian Communications Act of 2003.

In the affidavit deposed by Ayo Stuffman, the association contends that the FCCPC is acting ultra vires and creating a regulatory regime parallel to the NCC’s.

A jurisdictional war that stretches far beyond a procedural dispute

The conflict is not limited to a question of legal boundaries. It strikes at the commercial core of the market: who collects the licensing fees, who sets the operational conditions, who governs the financial products embedded in telecom networks.

Nigeria’s consumer credit stock reached 3.82 trillion naira at the end of December 2024, up 21.27% on September, according to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data relayed by The Cable and AFP.

In the fourth quarter of 2024 alone, personal loans disbursed amounted to approximately 470 billion naira.

A growing share flows through mobile applications and telecom-embedded lending products — including MTN’s MoMo Airtime Lending, operated by the country’s largest telecom operator.

If the court validates WASPA’s position, these products fall outside the FCCPC’s scope and come under the sole authority of the NCC, a regulator historically less active on consumer protection issues.

Available data on demand illustrate the social stakes. Between 2021 and 2023, the FCCPC recorded more than 11,000 consumer complaints for harassment, data abuse and unethical debt recovery practices, according to the agency.

The number of lending applications approved by the FCCPC rose from 269 in September 2024 to 408 in March 2025, while 47 apps were delisted and 88 were placed on the watchlist, according to data compiled by AFP and OneSafe.

The DEON Regulations were meant to introduce interest-rate caps, precontractual disclosure obligations, continuous supervision of recovery practices and fines of up to 100 million naira per violation, according to Legit.ng. The compliance deadline was set for January 5, 2026, and the FCCPC had issued written compliance notices to operators with an April 16 deadline, according to WASPA’s affidavit.

It is precisely this enforcement pressure that triggered the legal challenge.

 

 


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FG Rules Out Borrowing from IMF’s $50Bn Support Fund

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Federal government has said that Nigeria has no plans to seek a loan from the International Monetary Fund’s proposed $50 billion support package for economies hit by the Middle East crisis.

FG Rules Out Borrowing from IMF’s $50Bn Support Fund

Wale Edun, minister of Finance, who stated this, said that Nigeria’s current reliance on domestic economic reforms and fund mobilisation was working.

Edun gave these insights during the African Finance Ministers’ briefing, on Thursday, at the ongoing IMF/World Bank annual meetings, in Washington, DC.

He noted that for over two years, Nigeria’s investment in economic reforms have begun to yield results, restoring policy credibility and strengthening the country’s resilience against global economic shocks.

Edun told the global west and the rest of the world that Nigeria now prioritises market-based adjustments, avoiding administrative controls, particularly in foreign exchange and petroleum pricing mechanisms.

His assertion follows the disclosure by the IMF that a possible $50 billion support to cushion vulnerable economies against the crisis in the Middle East, was on the pipeline.

Despite clarifying Nigeria’s lack of interest in borrowing, Edun, urged the IMF to ensure faster financial assistance for African countries who will need help from the $50 billion global support package.

“Nigeria has no plans at the moment to approach the IMF or any other such body,” Edun said, emphasising that Nigeria’s reliance on market mechanisms had led to smoother economic adjustments, reduced disruptions and is sustaining the country’s macroeconomic trajectory.

“The IMF talked about $50 billion and we all know that the funding will largely go to Africa, because those are the most vulnerable countries. And the reality is that what we’re asking for in this instance, is that the funds and the support be released quickly and at scale.

 


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CBN Introduces Overnight Financing Rate to Compete with US, EU

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in collaboration with financial market dealers, has introduced the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR), a standardized benchmark designed to enhance transparency and strengthen monetary policy transmission.

CBN Introduces Overnight Financing Rate to Compete with US, EU

Olayemi Michael Cardoso, CBN gov

Hakama Sidi Ali, spokesperson of the CBN in a statement on Friday, said that the the NOFR is expected to improve price discovery and transparency, while promoting consistent pricing of money market instruments across Nigeria’s financial system.

The regulator noted that the new benchmark positions Africa’s most populous country alongside leading global reference rates such as SOFR in the United States, SONIA in the United Kingdom, €STR in the Eurozone, and TONA in Japan.

“It also complements African benchmarks such as JIBAR (South Africa). Following a stakeholder engagement session held on February 27, 2026, where market participants formally adopted the benchmark, and subsequent regulatory approval, NOFR is now in use, with the CBN serving as the benchmark administrator.

“The bank will ensure governance, transparency, and regular publication of the rate,” CBN stated.


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