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FXTM Analysis: Financial Markets Seeking Inspiration

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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on the current moods of Sterling, WTI and Gold.

An eerie calm shrouded the financial markets last week, with global stocks floating near record highs as investors maintained a cautious trading stance.

The rising anxiety over ongoing geopolitical tensions has exposed Asian shares to losses during early trading on Monday with some disappointing data from China compounding to the downside pressure. Although the current absence of political risk in Europe continues to elevate European equities, the upside may face headwinds down the road from the persistent uncertainty gravitating around Brexit.

Wall Street relinquished short-term gains on Friday following the soft retail sales and inflation data and should be poised to edge lower this afternoon as investors re-evaluate the likelihood of an interest rate increase in June.

With an air of anxiety suffocating participants who seek risk, and soft economic data from the US and China weighing on sentiment, the “Sell in May and go away” strategy may become a popular choice.

Sterling Edges Above 1.2900
Sterling ventured higher on Monday but this appreciation felt more technical than fundamental as prices found support above the daily 20 Simple Moving Average.

Although short term bulls may exploit the upside momentum to elevate the Pound higher towards 1.3000, uncertainty over Brexit should limit gains in the medium to longer-term. Sterling bears still have a shot to attack, especially when considering that the threat of Brexit negatively impacting the UK economy has encouraged the Bank of England to maintain a dovish stance.

The central bank has already trimmed its prediction for growth this year amid the Brexit uncertainty while rising levels of inflation and sluggish wage continue to dent consumer confidence. With consumer spending likely to face a squeeze amid the accelerating inflation and vulnerable Sterling, the GBPUSD still remains exposed to downside risks.

While bulls may propel the GBPUSD towards 1.3000 in the short term, repeated weakness below 1.2775 will encourage a decline towards 1.2600.

WTI Offered Another Lifeline
Oil markets received a solid boost on Monday and bulls offered a lifeline after top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia said that supply cuts should be extended until March 2018. While the prospect of the world’s two top oil producers working together to battle the oversupply woes may support WTI in the short term, gains may be limited if US Shale’s incessant pumping sabotages OPEC’s effort to stabilize the markets.

Although most remain cautiously optimistic that the OPEC meeting on 25 May will result in an extension to the supply cut deal, one should learn to always expect the unexpected when dealing with the cartel.

From a technical standpoint, a daily close above $49 on WTI Crude should encourage a further appreciation towards the psychological $50 level.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold edged higher on Monday after weaker than expected economic data from the US on Friday exposed the Dollar to losses. Ongoing geopolitical tensions concerning North Korea continue to support the yellow metal with prices trading around $1230 as of writing.

Although Gold remains technically bearish on the daily charts, this period of uncertainty should trigger a technical bounce that opens a path towards $1245. From a technical standpoint, bulls need a daily close above $1235 to open the gates towards $1245. In an alternative scenario, a breakdown below $1225 may trigger a selloff back towards $1215.

 


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E-Financial

NAICOM Signs MoU with BPP to Deepen Insurance Compliance in Public Procurement

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The National Insurance Commission (NAICOM), has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP) for collaboration and strengthening of the insurance industry, in the area of public procurement processes.

The Commissioner for Insurance, Olusegun Ayo Omosehin, welcoming the Director-General of BPP, Adebowale Adedokun, and his delegation to NAICOM for a working visit, during which the agreement was signed, highlighted the role of NAICOM as the statutory regulator charged with supervising, regulating and promoting the growth of Nigeria’s insurance industry.

He further stated that NAICOM’s current reform priorities include policyholder protection, regulatory capacity building, legal modernisation, recapitalisation, and increasing insurance penetration.

He emphasised that the collaboration would reinforce the principles of public procurement and insurance practice in Nigeria. He noted that achieving President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s vision of transforming Nigeria’s economy into a one-trillion-dollar economy required strong inter-agency cooperation.

He stressed that the commission’s reform objectives could not be fully realised without strategic collaboration with agencies such as BPP. The Commissioner further disclosed plans to establish a platform to monitor and verify insurance coverage for public procurement items and assured that insurance operators would strictly adhere to established rules and standards.

In his remarks, the Director-General of BPP, Adedokun, commended the ongoing transformation in the insurance industry, describing the Commission’s environment as serene and reflective of its readiness to support the Federal Government’s economic growth agenda.

Adedokun, welcomed the partnership and highlighted implementation as the critical next phase: “Signing MoU is only the beginning — what matters is delivery. BPP has moved to a fully digital submission model to speed approvals and reduce opportunities for corruption”, he stated.


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Binance Cuts Illicit Activity Exposure by 96%, Leads Global Crypto Compliance Push

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Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, has reported a 96 per cent drop in direct exposure to illicit activities between January 2023 and June 2025, underscoring its commitment to regulatory excellence and user safety amid Nigeria’s growing digital finance sector.

Binance Cuts Illicit Activity Exposure by 96%, Leads Global Crypto Compliance Push

Binance

The exchange highlighted investments in a robust compliance framework, including over 580 global compliance professionals and 970 staff in related roles, advanced transaction monitoring, stringent Know Your Customer (KYC) protocols, and anti-money laundering (AML) systems.

These measures align with evolving regulations across key markets, including Nigeria, where crypto adoption surges despite Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) guidelines.

Binance’s Chief Compliance Officer, Noah Perlman, said: “At Binance we’ve built a system that doesn’t just react to threats, it anticipates them. A 96% reduction in illicit exposure is a testament to our infrastructure and the 1,500+ professionals working behind the scenes to protect our 300M users.”

Key achievements include a 96.8 per cent plunge in sanctions-related exposure—from 0.284 per cent in January 2024 to 0.009 per cent in July 2025.

In 2025 alone, Binance responded to over 71,000 law enforcement requests, helping seize more than $130 million (over ₦200 billion) in illicit funds.

Collaborations with agencies like Europol, DEA, UK’s NCA, and national cybercrime units have dismantled ransomware groups, darknet markets, and trafficking networks.

Binance co-CEO Richard Teng added: “Our mission has always been to increase the freedom of money, but that freedom is only sustainable if it is built on a foundation of trust. By integrating compliance into our product DNA, we are proving that the world’s largest exchange can also be the most secure.”

The platform engages regulators and policymakers to shape balanced rules supporting innovation while prioritising transparency and financial integrity. Since 2017, Binance has served over 300 million users, publishing regular compliance updates to build trust.

Industry watchers note Binance’s efforts resonate in Nigeria, where crypto trading volumes exceed $50 billion annually, but challenges like fraud and regulatory scrutiny persist. The exchange’s progress could bolster confidence as the CBN refines fintech policies.

Binance reaffirmed its dedication to a safer crypto ecosystem through ongoing investments and partnerships.


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Nigeria’s VAT Jumps 34%, CIT Soars 48% to ₦14trn in 9M’25 – NBS

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Nigeria’s non-oil tax collections posted robust growth in the first nine months of 2025, with Value Added Tax (VAT) rising 34 per cent to ₦6.4 trillion and Company Income Tax (CIT) jumping 48 per cent to ₦7.72 trillion, bolstering federal revenue amid oil price volatility.

Nigeria's VAT Jumps 34%, CIT Soars 48% to ₦14trn in 9M'25 – NBS

NBS

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed VAT climbing from ₦4.77 trillion in 9M’24, reflecting stronger domestic consumption and imports. Quarterly trends indicated a slight 1.4 per cent dip to ₦2.03 trillion in Q2’25 from ₦2.06 trillion in Q1’25, followed by a 10.66 per cent rebound to ₦2.28 trillion in Q3’25—a 28.1 per cent year-on-year gain.

In Q3’25, local VAT hit ₦1.12 trillion, foreign VAT ₦680.23 billion, and import VAT ₦479.79 billion. Sectorally, Administrative and Support Services led with 89.28 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth, trailed by Arts, Entertainment and Recreation (82.49 per cent) and Human Health (32.4 per cent). Real Estate contracted sharply by 51.33 per cent. Manufacturing dominated contributions at 25.89 per cent, followed by Information and Communication (18.77 per cent) and Mining/Quarrying (14.85 per cent).

CIT followed suit, surging from ₦5.22 trillion in 9M’24. It stood at ₦1.98 trillion in Q1’25, leaped 40 per cent to ₦2.78 trillion in Q2’25, and grew 5.7 per cent to ₦2.96 trillion in Q3’25—a 67.19 per cent year-on-year rise. Domestic CIT reached ₦1.21 trillion in Q3, while foreign CIT hit ₦1.75 trillion, underscoring multinational firms’ role.

Economists attribute the uptick to improved tax administration, digital tracking, and post-reform consumption, though sectoral disparities signal real estate headwinds. The gains support President Tinubu’s revenue diversification drive, reducing oil dependency as global crude fluctuates.

NBS data highlights non-oil taxes’ potential to fund infrastructure and social programmes, with analysts eyeing sustained momentum into 2026.


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