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FXTM Analysis: Financial Markets Seeking Inspiration

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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on the current moods of Sterling, WTI and Gold.

An eerie calm shrouded the financial markets last week, with global stocks floating near record highs as investors maintained a cautious trading stance.

The rising anxiety over ongoing geopolitical tensions has exposed Asian shares to losses during early trading on Monday with some disappointing data from China compounding to the downside pressure. Although the current absence of political risk in Europe continues to elevate European equities, the upside may face headwinds down the road from the persistent uncertainty gravitating around Brexit.

Wall Street relinquished short-term gains on Friday following the soft retail sales and inflation data and should be poised to edge lower this afternoon as investors re-evaluate the likelihood of an interest rate increase in June.

With an air of anxiety suffocating participants who seek risk, and soft economic data from the US and China weighing on sentiment, the “Sell in May and go away” strategy may become a popular choice.

Sterling Edges Above 1.2900
Sterling ventured higher on Monday but this appreciation felt more technical than fundamental as prices found support above the daily 20 Simple Moving Average.

Although short term bulls may exploit the upside momentum to elevate the Pound higher towards 1.3000, uncertainty over Brexit should limit gains in the medium to longer-term. Sterling bears still have a shot to attack, especially when considering that the threat of Brexit negatively impacting the UK economy has encouraged the Bank of England to maintain a dovish stance.

The central bank has already trimmed its prediction for growth this year amid the Brexit uncertainty while rising levels of inflation and sluggish wage continue to dent consumer confidence. With consumer spending likely to face a squeeze amid the accelerating inflation and vulnerable Sterling, the GBPUSD still remains exposed to downside risks.

While bulls may propel the GBPUSD towards 1.3000 in the short term, repeated weakness below 1.2775 will encourage a decline towards 1.2600.

WTI Offered Another Lifeline
Oil markets received a solid boost on Monday and bulls offered a lifeline after top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia said that supply cuts should be extended until March 2018. While the prospect of the world’s two top oil producers working together to battle the oversupply woes may support WTI in the short term, gains may be limited if US Shale’s incessant pumping sabotages OPEC’s effort to stabilize the markets.

Although most remain cautiously optimistic that the OPEC meeting on 25 May will result in an extension to the supply cut deal, one should learn to always expect the unexpected when dealing with the cartel.

From a technical standpoint, a daily close above $49 on WTI Crude should encourage a further appreciation towards the psychological $50 level.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold edged higher on Monday after weaker than expected economic data from the US on Friday exposed the Dollar to losses. Ongoing geopolitical tensions concerning North Korea continue to support the yellow metal with prices trading around $1230 as of writing.

Although Gold remains technically bearish on the daily charts, this period of uncertainty should trigger a technical bounce that opens a path towards $1245. From a technical standpoint, bulls need a daily close above $1235 to open the gates towards $1245. In an alternative scenario, a breakdown below $1225 may trigger a selloff back towards $1215.

 


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BVN Enrollment Up 6.87 Percent to 67.84m in 2025 – NIBSS

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Bank Verification Number (BVN) enrollments in the country rose by 6.87 per cent , or 4.36 million, to 67.84 million as at the end of December 2025 from 63.48 million in the corresponding period of the preceding year, according to latest data released by the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS).

BVN Enrollment Up 6.87 Percent to 67.84m in 2025 - NIBSS

This means that a total number of 4.36 million BVN enrolments were recorded between the end of December 2024 and the end of last year.

The BVN scheme was launched on February 14, 2014 by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in collaboration with the Bankers’ Committee, NIBSS and the German firm, Dermalog, with the aim of capturing biometrics of all bank customers and giving each bank customer a unique 11-digit identity number (BVN) that can be verified across the Nigerian banking industry.

Lamido Sanusi, governor of the CBN, at the time, said at the event that the BVN scheme would enable the apex bank to significantly reduce incidents of fraud and money laundering in the banking industry and also help accelerate financial inclusion by opening up opportunities for credit to millions of Nigerians who do not have a standard means of identification.

In October 2017, the CBN released a regulatory framework for BVN operations and Watchlist for the financial system. It stated that the Watchlist comprises a database of bank customers identified by their BVNs, who have been involved in confirmed fraudulent activities in the Nigerian banking industry.

An analysis of the latest NIBSS data shows that BVN enrollment maintained an upward trend in the last five years, rising from 51.90 million in 2021 to 56.90 million and 60.12 million in 2022 and 2023 respectively, before hitting 63.48 million in 2024 and 67.84 in 2025.

Analysts attribute the rise in BVN enrolments in recent years to policy measures introduced by the CBN as part of its efforts to tackle fraud.

For instance, on December 1, 2023, the apex bank issued a circular directing Deposit money banks (DMBs) Non-interest banks, Payment Service Banks, other financial institutions and mobile operators, to ensure that all funded bank accounts or wallets, without BVN or National Identification Number (NIN) are placed on “Post No Debit or Credit,” by April 1, 2024.


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Fidelity Bank Completes N500Bn Capital Raise ahead of Deadline

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Fidelity Bank Plc said it has raised the required minimum share capital for lenders with international authorisation, boosting its capital base as Nigerian lenders race to comply with tougher regulatory requirements scheduled to end by March 2026.

Fidelity Bank Completes N500Bn Capital Raise ahead of Deadline

Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, GMD, Fidelity Bank

The push-up in its eligible capital, raised through a private placement, effectively placed Fidelity Bank among lenders that have successfully scaled through the regulatory mandate.

The Lagos-based bank, in a disclosure on the Nigerian Exchange on Tuesday, said the offer, which opened and closed on December 31, 2025, was approved by the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Proceeds from the transaction lift Fidelity’s eligible capital to about N564.5 billion from N305.5 billion, subject to final regulatory approvals.

The private placement was carried out under a mandate granted by shareholders at an extraordinary general meeting on February 6, 2025, authorising the bank to issue up to 20 billion ordinary shares.

Fidelity did not disclose the pricing or investor mix for the transaction.

The fundraising caps an aggressive capital-raising drive by Fidelity over the past two years. In 2024, the lender raised N175.85 billion through a public offer and rights issue, which brought its eligible capital to N305.5 billion. That left a shortfall of about N194.5 billion relative to the new minimum capital threshold.

Nigeria’s central bank in 2024 announced a sweeping recapitalisation programme aimed at strengthening the banking system, raising the minimum capital for commercial banks with international authorisation to N500 billion.

The apex bank mandated an increment in capital for national banks, pushing it to N200 billion and N50 billion for regional banks. The 24‑month compliance window ends on March 31, 2026, a regulation that’s triggering a wave of equity issuances, merger talks, and balance-sheet restructuring across the sector.

Fidelity’s latest capital raise places it above the regulatory floor, potentially easing pressure on the bank as peers continue to tap markets. The additional capital is also expected to support balance-sheet expansion, larger ticket lending, and resilience against macroeconomic shocks in Africa’s fourth-largest economy, which has been grappling with currency volatility, double-digit inflation, and elevated interest rates.

Analysts stated the scale and speed of this transaction validate Fidelity Bank’s standing among tier‑one lenders. Recently, Fitch Ratings affirmed the bank’s Long‑Term Issuer Default Rating at ‘B’ and upgraded its National Long‑Term Rating to ‘A+(nga)’, citing stronger capital buffers and improved profitability.

Fitch also recognised the bank’s expanding franchise, sound fundamentals, and healthy foreign‑currency liquidity, noting it was Nigeria’s sixth‑largest lender by assets at the end of 2024.


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Kuda Microfinance Bank Releases ‘My Year on Kuda’ 2025 Financial Recap

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Kuda Microfinance Bank has unveiled the 2025 edition of “My Year on Kuda,” its annual recap providing customers with personalised insights into their spending, saving, and money management habits from the previous year.

Kuda Microfinance Bank Releases 'My Year on Kuda' 2025 Financial Recap

Kuda Microfinance Bank

The tool analyses transaction data across categories like transfers, card payments, online purchases, and bills, revealing patterns such as highest-spending months, biggest payments, saving frequency, and savings from Kuda’s 25 free monthly transfers. Customers can compare 2025 activity against 2024, including income versus expenditure.

In an era of inflation and economic uncertainty, the recap promotes financial literacy by highlighting responsible borrowing via Kuda Overdraft usage, including access frequency, amounts borrowed, and repayment patterns.

Customer-shared screenshots on X reflect national trends: Nigeria recorded over 2.2 billion electronic transactions worth ₦285 trillion in Q1 2025, up 20 percent year-on-year, with POS terminals driving the shift to cashless commerce.

Kuda Group CEO Babs Ogundeyi, in the recap’s opening video, urged users: “Before you carry on with January, this is the perfect time to see everything you did with your money on Kuda last year and learn something.”

The feature underscores Kuda’s focus on actionable insights to help Nigerians navigate evolving personal finance amid shifting earning and spending behaviours.


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