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Markets Stabilize but Investors Remain Alert

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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on the Dollar, Sterling and U.S Shale.

Global stocks displayed subtle signs of stability during Friday’s trading session as investors re-evaluated the explosive Trump developments which rattled financial markets this week. Asian shares were a mixed bag amidst cautious trading while European equities edged cautiously higher.
With the spiralling uncertainty over Donald Trump’s political future raising questions over his ability to deliver the heavily anticipated pro-growth policies, gains on Wall Street are likely to be limited.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the controversies blanketing Trump have left investors jittery with most seeking concrete answers to what the future may hold. Markets may turn extremely sensitive moving forward and any additional news on this Trump episode should spark more volatility.

Dollar bears are back in town
The Greenback gasped for air on Thursday with prices temporarily reversing earlier losses after stronger-than-expected U.S economic data diverted some attention away from the Trump woes. Short-term bulls were inspired further by the hawkish comments from Loretta Mester, CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, which renewed expectations of a U.S interest rate increase in June.

The fact that the Dollar has found itself under renewed selling pressure on Friday continues to highlight how the focus remains on the political instability in Washington and growing uncertainty over the future of Trump’s administration. With those who were heavily optimistic over Trump’s proposed fiscal policies now having second thoughts amidst this uncertainty, the Dollar could become a seller’s best friend.

Sterling blocked by 1.30 gate keeper
Sterling smashed through the stubborn $1.30 resistance during Thursday’s trading session following the much better than expected British retail sales growth that quelled some Brexit concerns. Retail sales were resilient in April rising 2.3% despite consumers feeling the pinch from wage growth lagging behind inflation. Although short-term Pound bulls may attempt to exploit the positive data and vulnerable Dollar to elevate the GBPUSD higher, gains still remain limited, especially when factoring the growing uncertainty over Brexit negotiations. From a technical standpoint, the GBPUSD still remains at risk of trading lower to 1.2775 if bulls fail to secure a solid daily close above 1.3000. In an alternative scenario, a daily close above 1.3000 should open a path higher towards 1.3250.

OPEC vs U.S Shale
Oil markets lurched higher on Friday as optimism grew over big oil-producing countries extending output cuts to stabilize the markets. Although OPEC may be commended on their ability to repeatedly boost the markets on production cut talks, the effects seem to be wearing out. Oil prices may be exposed to further volatility moving forward as the fierce tug of war between OPEC bulls and U.S Shale bears get underway. While most expect production cuts to be extended until March 2018, I think it’s more of a question on how U.S Shale exploits this opportunity to pump more oil into the markets. From a technical standpoint, investors will be paying very close attention to how prices react to the psychological $50 level.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold price traded higher during early trading on Friday and was on track for the biggest weekly gain since April as political unrest in Washington weighed heavily on risk sentiment. Although the metal experienced a sharp technical correction on Thursday, this had nothing to do with a change of bias. It came down to profit taking and a slightly appreciating U.S Dollar. Bulls still remain in control despite the depreciation with prices destined to appreciate higher as uncertainty quickens the flight to safety. From a technical standpoint, buyers need to secure a daily close above $1260 for an incline higher towards $1275.


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E-Financial

Global Money Week: Unity Bank Engages Students on Financial Literacy

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Unity Bank Plc has engaged students from all the geopolitical zones of the federation as it facilitated financial literacy training in 15 schools as part of activities to mark the 2024 Global Money Week.

The Financial Literacy Training was held as a strategy for driving financial inclusion of the Central Bank of Nigeria and Bankers Committee. Unity Bank’s Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Mrs. Tomi Somefun participated in the programme by facilitating training on financial literacy at NYSC Demonstration Secondary School, Calabar, Cross River State recently.

Mrs Somefun, who was represented by Unity Bank’s Chief Compliance Officer, Mrs. Patricia Ahunanya, provided the students with invaluable insights on the path to wealth creation, including imbibing savings habits, investing, and adopting money management skills early.

Her interaction with the students was aimed at instilling financial discipline and financial management skills for the attainment of financial independence and security while promoting a savings and investment culture. During the session, Mrs. Somefun acknowledged outstanding students and presented them with awards.

The Global Money Week (GMW) is an annual campaign dedicated to raising global awareness about the importance of promoting financial literacy among young people from an early age. The initiative focuses on equipping them with the knowledge, skills, attitudes, and behaviours essential for making informed financial decisions, leading to financial well-being. Each year, a minimum of 40,000 organizations participate in this endeavour, collectively impacting over 60 million children globally.

In Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Banker’s Committee in collaboration with Junior Achievement Nigeria, coordinates the activities for Global Money Week, which sees the participation of financial institutions with nationwide coverage.

See photo highlights below:


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CBN Stops 4 Fintechs from Onboarding New Customers

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has issued a directive to four fintech companies, instructing them to halt the onboarding of new customers pending further notice.

CBN Stops 4 Fintechs from Onboarding New Customers

The affected fintechs—OPay, Palmpay, Kuda Bank, and Moniepoint—have been linked to allegations of accounts being used for illicit foreign exchange transactions.

Representatives from the companies confirmed that the CBN’s order is related to these allegations.

However, they noted that the directive might be misdirected, as the majority of the implicated accounts belonged to commercial banks, not fintech platforms.

“I can confirm that 90% of the accounts implicated in the illicit forex transactions are with commercial banks, and only 10% are with fintechs. Why then has the CBN not extended this directive to the commercial banks? We face a widespread issue here, and targeting fintechs seems like an unfair focus on the more vulnerable targets,” one of the sources explained.

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) recently secured a court order to freeze at least 1,146 bank accounts owned by various individuals and companies allegedly involved in illegal foreign exchange transactions.

Justice Emeka Nwite, in a decision on the ex-parte motion presented by the anti-graft agency’s lawyer, Ekele Iheanacho, also approved the commission’s request to complete the investigation within 90 days.


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Banks Lose N2.09Bn to Frauds in Q4 2023 – FITC 

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Nigerian banks lost a total of N2.09 billion to frauds in Q4 2023 with mobile emerging as the top channel through which the largest amount was lost, according to report by Nairametrics.

Banks Lose N2.09Bn to Frauds in Q4 2023 – FITC 

This was revealed in the latest Fraud and Forgeries report released by the Financial Institutions Training Centre (FITC).

According to the report, the N2.09 billion loss recorded in Q4 was a 77.58% increase compared with N1.18 billion lost by the banks in Q3 2024.

FITC in the report also revealed that a total of 12,405 cases of fraud were recorded in Q4 2024. When compared to the 12,066 cases recorded in Q3, this shows a 2.81% increase.

“The data for the last quarter of 2023 indicates that computer/web fraud, mobile fraud, and POS-related fraud were the three most prevalent types of fraud, continuing the trend observed all year round in 2023,” the report added.

However, in terms of the actual loss through the channels, FITC said mobile fraud accounted for the highest loss at 17.039% with a value of N356.57 million, while suppression of cash entries accounted for 3.75%, totaling N78.45 million.

The report noted that there was an overall increase in the amount lost across all channels except for Bank Branch which recorded a decline and Van and Agents which didn’t record any fraud cases, while the amount lost via the web, bank branch, and PoS channel decreased.

“In their order of magnitude, the amount lost through the ATM channel grew by 711.15%, raising the value to 40.47 million from N4.99 million in Q3. POS fraud also witnessed a surge in the amount lost by 95.01% from N7.5 million to N14.6 million.

“For Web fraud, the amount lost increased significantly by 50.49%, rising from N19.12 million to N28.77 million. However, bank branch-related frauds saw a decline of 59.73%, with the amount lost shrinking from N884.96 million in the previous quarter to N356.34 million in Q4 2023,” it said.

Strengthening security in banks

Advising the banks to respond adequately to the rising cases of fraud, FITC said Nigerian banks will need to invest heavily in upgrading and fortifying their digital infrastructure. This, it said, involves implementing cutting-edge cybersecurity measures, robust identity verification systems, and real-time transaction monitoring.

According to the organization, regular security audits and penetration testing are essential for promptly identifying and addressing system vulnerabilities.

“Furthermore, banks should prioritize customer and employee education to raise awareness about prevalent fraud schemes and promote effective prevention practices. Collaborating closely with law enforcement agencies is crucial to enhancing the capacity for investigating and prosecuting fraud cases.

“Regulatory compliance should be a top priority, requiring banks to stay current with evaluating regulations related to fraud prevention and data security.

Compliance not only ensures adherence to legal standards but also demonstrates a commitment to safeguarding customers’ financial assets,” FITC advised.

It added that following these recommendations would empower Nigerian commercial and merchant banks to better protect themselves and their customers against fraud and forgeries in the current situation.

 


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