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Inflation Decline: Why CBN Should Remain Standby- Otunuga

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
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The growing confidence in Nigeria’s economic recovery was bolstered on Thursday following reports that the nation’s rate of inflation declined for the fourth consecutive month in May to 16.25% , the lowest level in a year, says Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM.

However, he believes there some economic indices that portend the Central Bank of Nigeria (CN) must be vigilant to absorb any uncertainty in the market.  

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday said that the country’s inflation dropped to 16.25 per cent in May from 17.24 per cent in April.

The NBS made this known in its “Consumer Price Index (CPI) May 2017’’ report released on Thursday in Abuja.

According to the bureau, this is the fourth consecutive decline in the rate of inflation since January. On a month-on-month basis, the bureau stated that the Headline index increased by 1.88 per cent in May 2017, 0.28 per cent points higher than the rate of 1.60 per cent recorded in April 2017.

It stated that food inflation increased by 19.27 per cent (year-on-year) in May 2017, down by 0.03 per cent points from the rate of 19.30 per cent recorded in April.

On a month-on-month basis, the bureau stated that the food sub-index increased by 2.54 per cent in May, up by 0.50 per cent points from 2.04 per cent recorded in April.

The bureau said that rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of meat, bread and cereals, fish, potatoes, milk cheese and eggs as well as vegetables such as tomatoes.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the 12 months period ending in May 2017 over the average of the CPI for the previous 12 months period was 17.63 per cent. “This is against 17.59 per cent recorded in April 2017, it said.’’

It said the urban index rose by 16.34 per cent (year-on-year) in May 2017 from 17.62 per cent recorded in April.

Accordingly, the rural index increased by 16.02 per cent in May from 16.69 per cent in April. On month-on-month basis, it stated that the urban index rose by 1.84 per cent in May from 1.61 per cent recorded in April, while the rural index rose by 1.92 per cent in May from 1.59 per cent in April.

The CPI measures the average changeover time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living.

The construction of the CPI combines economic theory, sampling and other statistical techniques using data from other surveys to produce a weighted measure of average price changes in the Nigerian economy.

Commenting on NBS Inflation rate, Lukman Otunuga said, “The growing confidence in Nigeria’s economic recovery was bolstered on Thursday following reports that the nation’s rate of inflation declined for the fourth consecutive month in May to 16.25% , the lowest level in a year.

“This strong display of price stability may boost investor risk appetite towards the nation and support the Nigerian Stock Exchange which has already climbed to a two-year high. Although inflation is cooling, the Central Bank of Nigeria is likely to remain on standby until core economic data shows repeated signs of stability”.

He added that ehile the nation’s macro fundamentals are slowly healing, the sharp decline in oil prices presents a threat to the current recovery.

“With oil prices heavily linked to the nation’s foreign external reserves, a drop in the commodity has the ability to reduce Dollar supplies, ultimately impacting the stability of the Naira Exchange. As the long-term outlook for oil remains tilted to the downside, Nigeria must push ahead with diversifying while breaking away from oil dependence,” Otunuga added.


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E-Financial

CBN Orders Banks, Fintechs to Host Payment Data Locally

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The Central Bank of Nigeria has directed banks, fintech firms, and other payment service providers to store payment transaction data generated within the country on local servers from January 1, 2027, as part of new measures to strengthen oversight of the fast-growing digital payments ecosystem.

CBN Orders Banks, Fintechs to Host Payment Data Locally

 

The directive was contained in a circular issued by the Payments System Supervision Department of the CBN on Monday and addressed to deposit money banks, microfinance banks, mobile money operators, switching and processing companies, payment terminal service providers, payment solution service providers, super agents and other licensed operators in the payments industry.

The circular, signed by the Director of the Payments System Supervision Department, Rakiya Yusuf, also introduced new market structure rules, beneficial ownership disclosure requirements and systemic oversight measures for payment service operators.

According to the apex bank, the reforms became necessary following the rapid expansion of electronic payments and digital financial services across the country.

The CBN said it had observed “significant structural developments within the Nigerian Payments ecosystem, characterised by rapid growth in electronic payments, increasing adoption of digital financial services, and the emergence of operators with substantial market presence across key payment activities.”

It noted that while the growth had improved innovation, efficiency and financial inclusion, it had also created concerns around market concentration, operational dependence, ownership transparency and the storage of critical payments data.

To address these concerns, the regulator ordered all financial institutions facilitating payments in Nigeria to ensure that transaction data generated within the country are stored domestically.

The circular stated, “All Financial Institutions and participants facilitating payments within Nigeria shall ensure that payments transaction data generated within Nigeria are stored and managed in Nigeria in accordance with data protection laws and regulations applicable in Nigeria.”

It added that “all affected Financial Institutions shall fully comply with this requirement effective January 1, 2027.”

The move is expected to strengthen regulatory oversight, enhance data sovereignty and ensure that sensitive payment information remains within Nigeria’s jurisdiction.

It also aligns with broader efforts by regulators globally to localise critical financial data and reduce reliance on offshore infrastructure.

Beyond data localisation, the CBN ordered banks, payment service providers and other financial institutions with digital payment operations to disclose the ultimate beneficial ownership of significant shareholders.

According to the circular, institutions must maintain accurate and up-to-date records of their ultimate beneficial owners and make such information available to the apex bank upon request.

The regulator said the disclosure requirement must comply with existing anti-money laundering, counter-terrorism financing and counter-proliferation financing regulations.

The directive builds on previous CBN efforts to strengthen beneficial ownership transparency as part of wider measures to combat money laundering and illicit financial flows in the financial system.

The central bank also introduced fresh competition rules aimed at limiting excessive market dominance in the payments industry.

Under the new framework, any financial institution that controls more than 25 per cent of the card-issuing market in a rolling 12-month period will not be allowed to hold more than 15 per cent of the merchant-acquiring market during the same period.

Similarly, operators with more than 25 per cent market share in merchant acquiring activities will be restricted to a maximum of 15 per cent market share in card issuing activities.

Merchant acquiring refers to processing card payments on behalf of merchants, while card issuing involves providing payment cards to customers.

The CBN said all regulated entities would be required to submit monthly market share returns based on prescribed templates and timelines.

It further directed affected institutions to take the necessary measures to achieve full compliance with the market structure requirements by December 31, 2026.

The apex bank said the new measures were designed to “improve transparency through beneficial ownership disclosure, address concentration risk, promote a fair, competitive, and resilient payments ecosystem.”

According to the regulator, the reforms are also intended to “safeguard the integrity of the Nigerian payments system and ensure the localisation of payments transaction data within Nigeria.”

The CBN warned that it would closely monitor compliance and impose sanctions where necessary.

“The CBN shall monitor compliance with the provisions of this Circular and may, where necessary, impose supervisory sanctions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and guidelines,” the circular stated.

The latest directive comes amid a rapid expansion of Nigeria’s digital payments industry, with electronic transactions reaching record levels and regulators increasing oversight of banks, fintech firms and other payment operators to address operational, cybersecurity and systemic risks.


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Analysts Warn of Growing “Crowded Trade” in Foreign Exchange Markets

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Foreign exchange markets are entering a phase where how traders are positioned may matter as much as the economic fundamentals driving those positions, according to a new market analysis from JustMarkets.

JustMarkets

The brokerage’s latest commentary points to a build-up in trades tied to the US dollar and to carry strategies, bets that exploit interest rate differentials between currencies, as a growing source of risk heading into the coming weeks.

The dollar has been supported by elevated US interest rates and pushed-back expectations for rate cuts, conditions that have encouraged more traders to pile into similar carry positions. While the macro case behind these trades remains intact for now, JustMarkets cautions that when positioning becomes this lopsided, even sound trades can become vulnerable to sudden, sharp reversals.

A “crowded trade” isn’t inherently a red flag, the analysis notes, it can simply reflect a widely shared, fundamentally sound view. The danger emerges when too many participants are leaning the same way and conditions shift: traders rush to exit together, stop-loss orders cluster around similar price levels, and liquidity can evaporate just as prices move fastest. The combination, JustMarkets says, often produces a cascade effect that accelerates price moves in the opposite direction.

Notably, the analysis argues that reversals in crowded trades rarely require a major shock. Instead, minor developments, a softer-than-expected economic print, a subtle shift in central bank language, or fresh geopolitical headlines, can be enough to make traders question whether their positions still make sense. Once that doubt spreads, unwinding tends to happen in unison, amplifying both the speed and scale of the move.

Carry trades are singled out as particularly exposed in this environment. They tend to perform well during calmer periods but can unravel quickly once markets shift from “risk-on” to “risk-off,” triggering rapid liquidations and sharp corrections in carry positions.

JustMarkets argues that the current backdrop, marked by elevated geopolitical tension, persistent inflation, and lingering uncertainty over the path of monetary policy, leaves markets more exposed to positioning-driven swings than in previous cycles. Trader sentiment, the analysis suggests, is playing an outsized role alongside the usual response to economic data and headlines.

With crowded conditions raising the odds of fast, disorderly moves, the quality of trade execution becomes more consequential, the analysis notes, citing slippage, wider spreads, and order delays as factors that can compound losses during volatile swings.

On managing risk, JustMarkets’ analysts recommend that traders: Avoid overexposure to the dominant macro narrative of the moment, pay closer attention to positioning and sentiment indicators, maintain disciplined stop-loss orders ahead of potential downturn and pPrepare for higher volatility and faster price action than usual.

Markets become crowded periodically, and when they do, the risk of a sharp, sudden reversal rises with them. For now, JustMarkets’ broader message to traders is one of caution: with positioning levels elevated across USD and carry trades, vigilance on execution and risk management will likely matter more than usual in the weeks ahead.


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ACAMB Kicks-off 30th Anniversary Celebration With Tree Planting Initiative

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Association of Corporate Communication and Marketing Professionals in Banks (ACAMB) on the 11th of June kicked off activities, marking its 30th anniversary celebration with a tree-planting exercise on Providence Street, Lekki Phase 1, Lagos.

ACAMB Kicks-off 30th Anniversary Celebration With Tree Planting Initiative

L-R: President, Association of Corporate Communication and Marketing Professionals in Banks (ACAMB), Jide Sipe; Representative of Wema Bank, Precious Akpan; Vice President 2, Morolake Onifade, Representative of Alpha Morgan, Tolu Onipede and General Secretary, ACAMB, Olugbenga Owotoomo during a tree planting initiative, put together to flag-off the 30th anniversary celebration of ACAMB, held at Providence Street, Lekki Phase 1, Lagos

Held in Lagos recently, the initiative, the initiative was part of the associations efforts aimed at promoting environmental sustainability while commemorating 3 decades of advancing corporate communications and marketing excellence within Nigeria’s banking industry.

The well attended exercise, led by President of ACAMB, Jide Sipe and the Registrar/Chief Executive Officer of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), Akin Morakinyo, in the company of Vice President 1, Chinwe Bode Akinwande; Vice President 2, Morolake Onifade; Executive committee Members, both past and present, alongside, Group Heads of marketing and Corporate communications, and Heads of Departments across banks waded through the heavy downpour, planting trees in the rain in a display of commitment that set the tone for the milestone celebration.

A tree was planted, by representatives of banks in the country and named after each bank.

ACAMB President, Jide Sipe, who welcomed members and dignitaries to the exercise, reaffirmed the Association’s commitment to the reputation and growth of the banking industry.

“Thirty years ago, a handful of professionals chose to put the reputation of the banking industry above rivalry. We are standing today on the foundation they laid, and every tree we plant here is a promise to keep building and most importantly deepen credibility by proactively addressing issues which directly improve our collective brand image and customer loyalty,” he said.

“What ACAMB is doing also coincides with our 30th anniversary celebration. One of the best ways to celebrate this milestone is to contribute to the environment by the planting of trees that will on the long run be environmentally and economically impactful to the society at large.

“We are planting trees in honour of banks in the country and each of the trees will be named after them.

Outlining the anniversary programme, Sipe announced a series of activities running through September 2026, including a Golf and Networking Experience on June 27, 2026, at Ikoyi Club, Lagos, with the celebration culminating in a grand Gala Night on September 30, 2026.

“We are marking three decades the way they should be marked, with substance and with joy,” he said.

The Registrar and Chief Executive Officer of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), Akin Morakinyo, HCIB, unveiled the Association’s 30th anniversary logo and commended ACAMB for its longstanding collaboration with the Institute.

“This anniversary is dedicated to the glory of God and the service of humanity,” he said. “I charge every member to hold firmly to professionalism and ethics in the discharge of their duties.”

A founding member of the association, Dr Nkechi Ali Balogun, offered a historical reflection on its formation. ACAMB was established in 1996 by representatives of five institutions: IBWA (later Afribank), Union Bank, NEXIM Bank, First Bank, and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

“The late Mr. Dangogo of the CBN gathered us at Kuramo Lodge with a simple idea, that banks could compete and still respect one another,” she said.

Member of the Association’s Board of Trustees, Ogie Eboigbe, traced the formation to concerns over banks de-marketing one another.

“Banks were winning customers by tearing down their rivals, and it was hurting public confidence in all of us,” he explained.

The tree-planting exercise reflects ACAMB’s commitment to environmental sustainability and stands as a fitting symbol of the Association’s growth and impact over the past three decades.


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