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Financial Markets Gripped By Geopolitics

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In this write-up, Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM, comments on the ongoing geopolitical risks affecting markets.

Financial markets were firmly gripped by geopolitical risks on Tuesday, as brewing tensions between the United States and North Korea weighed heavily on global sentiment.

Risk aversion is becoming a dominant theme amid escalating North Korean tensions, and the jitters punished Asian stocks during early trading on Wednesday.

In Europe, shares ended mostly lower yesterday and have extended losses today, as the cautious mood from Asia encouraged investors to avoid riskier assets.

The lack of appetite for risk sent U.S stocks to their lowest level in almost three weeks on Tuesday, with further downsides on the cards as the mixture of geopolitical tension and political uncertainty sours risk appetite.

The movements observed in stock markets and safe-haven assets suggest that markets have become increasingly sensitive to geopolitical influence. Recent comments from a North Korean diplomat threatening that the country was prepared to deliver ‘gift packages’ to the U.S is likely to fuel further risk aversion.

Dollar Punished By Fed Doves
King Dollar struggled to hold ground against a basket of major currencies during Wednesday’s trading session, after dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard prompted investors to re-evaluate the likelihood of another rate hike this year.

Brainard stated that inflation was “well short” of targets and the central bank should be cautious about tightening policy until policy makers are confident that inflation will rebound. These dovish remarks have effectively trimmed market expectations of a December rate hike, exposing the Greenback to further pain.

As the trading month of September gets underway, Dollar weakness is likely to remain a dominant theme; political instability in Washington and fading rate hike expectations will weigh heavily on the currency. From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index is under intense selling pressure on the daily charts. Repeated weakness below 92.00 should encourage a further depreciation towards 90.00.

Commodity Spotlight – Gold
The heightened geopolitical risks over North Korea and ongoing concerns about stubbornly low inflation in the United States have supported Gold, with prices trading around $1340 as of writing.

The yellow metal has found itself back in fashion, with further upside expected as geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty in Washington accelerate the flight to safety. From a technical standpoint, Gold is bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. A solid breakout and daily close above $1340 should open a path higher towards $1350.

Currency Spotlight – EURUSD
Thursday’s main risk event for the Euro will be the highly anticipated European Central Bank meeting, which is expected to conclude with interest rates left unchanged.

The prospects of the European Central Bank tapering QE have heavily supported the Euro and, with the current QE program due to end in September, tomorrow’s ECB meeting will be in sharp focus.

While markets were widely expecting the central bank to announce the winding down of its QE program this week, the resurgent Euro and the impact it may have on the inflation target may prompt the central bank to wait until October.

From a technical standpoint, the EURUSD remains bullish on the daily charts. The breakout above 1.1900 should encourage a further appreciation towards 1.1970 and 1.2000, respectively. In an alternative scenario, repeated weakness below 1.1900 is likely to trigger a selloff towards 1.1770.


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E-Financial

Extradition Papers Completed for Anjarwalla, Fugitive Binance Executive- INTERPOL Africa

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Garba Umar, vice president, Nigerian Central Bureau (NCB) of the International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL) for Africa confirmed on Tuesday that the extradition papers for Nadeem Anjarwalla , escaped Nigeria Binance executive have been finalized.

Extradition Papers Completed for Anjarwalla, Fugitive Binance Executive- INTERPOL Africa

Nadeem Anjarwalla

Umar made the announcement during a television appearance on the Nigerian news program Sunrise Daily.

“We are now doing everything possible to ensure the country complies with INTERPOL’s rules of international police cooperation by initiating the extradition process to bring him back to face justice in Nigeria,” Umar said.

Anjarwalla was originally detained by Nigerian authorities alongside fellow Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan in late February and arrested on charges of money laundering and tax evasion. He fled shortly thereafter before reportedly being found and detained by Kenyan officials just over a week ago.

Questions have swirled over the legitimacy of Anjarwalla’s and Gambaryan’s capture, with media reports suggesting that the country’s officials demanded personal information from the crypto exchange’s top users.

The duo, who were reportedly invited to the country by its government, are due back in an Abuja court for a hearing later this month.

Meanwhile, Binance claimed it was “collaborating” with the Nigerian government on its employees’ safe return.

“Binance respectfully requests that Tigran Gambaryan, who has no decision-making power in the company, is not held responsible while current discussions are ongoing between Binance and Nigerian government officials,” a recent statement from the company said.

Anjarwalla and Gambrayan aren’t the only higher-ups at the crypto exchange facing prison time.

On Tuesday, Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao, Binance founder and former CEO was sentenced to four months in U.S. prison after a recent jury trial found him liable for fraud related to the crash of algorithmic stablecoins Terra and Luna.

“I will do my time, conclude this phase and focus on the next chapter of my life (education),” the Binance founder said in a Tuesday X post. “I will remain a passive investor (and holder) in crypto. Our industry has entered a new phase. Compliance is super important.”

In addition to jail time, CZ will be fined $50 million, and Binance will pay $4.3 billion in penalties.

Whether or not Anjarwalla will be extradited or the crypto exchange will be able to win its reputation back amidst the push for regulatory compliance is yet unclear.

 


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PAPSS Set for Expansion To Boost Intra-Africa Payments

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The Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) which was launched to make cross-border transactions seamless, is set to capture more markets in Africa.

The plan was disclosed last week by the Chief Executive Officer of PAPSS, Mr. Mike Ogbalu, during a stakeholders’ forum held in Lagos.

Ogbolu, who was represented, said Fintech across the continent of Africa can operate more seamlessly and widely with the assistance of PAPSS.

According to him, “Currently, there are numerous impediments and challenges facing intra-African trade payments. Banks must navigate sometimes conflicting local, multi-country and multiregional regulations to enable the seamless movement of funds on behalf of their diverse customers across the continent. Operational inefficiencies and onerous compliance requirements are time-consuming impediments.”

In his opening remarks, Mr. Patrick Akinwunta, Ex Ecobank Group Managing Director & Regional Executive at Ecobank Nigeria, said banks, their customers and anyone or business involved in financial transactions across the continent of Africa stand to benefit massively from the PAPSS system.

“The essence of PAPSS is to help in cross-border financial settlement with ease, speed and precision. It is a practical process of instant delivery and a major aggregator that brings everybody together. We all need a connecting point; and PAPSS is the big umbrella.

As a centralized Financial Market Infrastructure that enables the efficient flow of money securely across African borders, minimizing risk and contributing to financial integration across the regions, PAPSS works in collaboration with Africa’s central banks to provide a payment and settlement service to which commercial banks and licensed payment service providers across the region can connect as ‘Participants’.

In his presentation, Mr. Osita Ugwu, Chief Technology Officer at PAPSS, disclosed that 60 banks have already gone live on PAPSS platform, while another 60 are doing integration.

According to him, “By year end, we are expecting 23 banks to be integrated. As of today, 60 banks are doing integration and another 60 banks are going live.

Since its launch by the African Union and the Afreximbank in 2022, several commercial banks have been onboarded on its system.

PAPSS is a pan-African payment system facilitating instant cross-border payments in local African currencies. It is a centralised platform that connects central banks, commercial banks, and other financial institutions across the continent.

The platform was launched in January 2022 by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and the African Union (AU). At launch, it was sold as a system that could reduce the cost and time of cross-border payments in Africa and boost intra-African trade. It has partnered with over 25 commercial banks since its launch and helps accelerate payment processing as a real-time gross settlement system.

The system also boosts security compared to the current correspondent banking system, as it operates on a centralised platform governed by the AU and Afreximbank.

At the event, PAPSS introduced a new settlement model called the Commercial Bank Settlement Model (CBSM), which allows commercial banks to open and fund their settlement accounts at Afreximbank and manage their liquidity as per their banking requirements.


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FCMB Group Records 186% Profit Growth, Proposes 50k Dividend

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For the year ended December 31, 2023, FCMB Group Plc grew deposits, loans, assets under management, revenue and earnings and improved its environmental, social, and corporate governance scorecard. The Group recorded a profit before tax of ₦104.4 billion, a 186% year-on-year (YoY) increase compared to ₦36.6 billion in 2022 and earnings growth across its business segments: Banking Group 212.6%, Consumer Finance 67.3%, Investment Management 40%, and Investment Banking 89.7%.

FCMB Group, which proposed a dividend of 50 kobo per share for its shareholders, contributed to food security and import substitution in Nigeria by increasing lending to the agricultural sector by 38.4% from N147.4 billion in 2022 to N204.3 billion in 2023. In addition, the Bank supported over 300,000 smallholder farmers, 56% of whom were women in agriculture, in rural communities to support the sector. Over $280 million of funding from DFI’s and donor agencies was raised during the year to support the attainment of sustainable development goals in critical sectors of the economy.

Leveraging its core banking business, the Group facilitated over $700 million and $100 million in export and remittance flows into Nigeria, respectively, as at December 2023.

In safeguarding the environment, it switched six additional branches of its retail and commercial banking subsidiary (First City Monument Bank Limited) from grid/diesel generators to solar power last year, taking the number of branches running on renewable energy to 160, which represents 78% of total branches.

In addition, the Bank secured funding of up to N13 billion from local development finance institutions for on-lending to customers requiring solar energy solutions to further support its commitment to driving renewable energy.

FCMB’s customer base grew by 15.6% YoY from 10.9 million to 12.5 million for the period ended December 2023, whilst users of its mobile app that offers lending, wealth and payment solutions grew by 31% YoY to 3.4 million. Similarly, the Bank’s agency banking network grew to over 164,000 agents. With an enlarged customer base, an expanded distribution platform, and the use of artificial intelligence to automate and optimise loan underwriting processes, the Group successfully disbursed over 1.5 million loans worth N100.8 billion to individuals, N14.4 billion to micro-enterprises and N177.9 billion to SMEs during the period.

Commenting on the results, the Group Chief Executive of FCMB Group Plc, Mr Ladi Balogun, said: “We continue to leverage our unique Group structure to build a technology-driven ecosystem that is fostering inclusive and sustainable growth in the communities we serve.

“This strategy is enabling us to deliver robust performance in spite of the challenging domestic and global environment. Barring unforeseen circumstances, we believe this trend will be sustained and accompanied by improving efficiencies arising from greater scale and ongoing digitisation”.

The results across market fundamentals also showed gross revenue of N516.4 billion for the period ended December 2023, an 82.5% growth from N283 billion for the same period the prior year. Net interest income grew by 44.8% from N122 billion in 2022 to N176.6 billion in 2023. Customer confidence in FCMB remained strong, as deposits rose by 58.5% YoY from N1.94 trillion to N3.08 trillion, just as loans and advances grew by 54% from N1.20 trillion to N1.84 trillion. The Group’s total assets increased by 48.3% from N2.98 trillion to N4.42 trillion at the end of December 2023.

FCMB Group’s Assets Under Management increased by 29.6% last year from N783.7 billion to N1.02 trillion. The value of investment banking transactions consummated by the Group rose to N945.3 billion for the period ended December 2023, compared to N857.1 billion in the same period the prior year.

FCMB Group, a financial services holding company headquartered in Lagos, Nigeria, and listed on the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), has strategic interests in companies serving over 12.5 million customers across five key platforms: banking, consumer finance, investment management, investment banking, and financial technology. The Group and its subsidiaries are building an ecosystem that promotes inclusive and sustainable growth in their communities, primarily in Africa, its diaspora, and the United Kingdom, by connecting people, capital, and markets.


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