E-Financial
Emerging market currencies pressured, but Naira stable

by Hussein Sayed
The Naira has entered the trading week on a firm footing despite a stabilizing Dollar and global trade tensions pressuring emerging market currencies. There is a suspicion that the Naira’s stability could be based on continual intervention from the Central Bank of Nigeria. June was certainly a cruel trading month for emerging market currencies and this negativity could roll over into July if escalating trade tensions weigh on sentiment and erode risk appetite. It will be interesting to see if the Naira is able to maintain its stability at a time where trade war fears and prospects of higher US interest rates have triggered capital outflows from emerging markets.
Recession fears escalate as trade war heats up
It has been an interesting first half for2018. Economic fundamentals and politics took center stage as both fought for market influence. The Federal Reserve is in tightening mode as growth and inflation trended higher, while the trade war between the US and the rest of the world particularly with China and the EU intensified further. In parallel to these events the US administration provided massive stimulus to an economy that is already near full employment which led to further strengthening of the USDollar.
Looking at the big picture, strong economic growth in the US, despite signs of softening elsewhere, provided support for equities. However, geopolitical uncertainty and protectionism remained the key downside risk. We think that we’re in the late stage of the current economic cycle, but there are no signs of a recession yet. In such economic conditions equity investors should be more cautious when investing. A more selective approach is needed as valuations are likely to be further challenged in the months ahead as volatility is further elevated.
Given that inflation will be a key factor driving monetary policies in the second half of 2018, investors need to keep a close eye on Oil prices. The decision by OPEC and non-OPEC members to raise crude supplies by about one million barrels starting from 1 July was considered a negative factor for Oil prices. However, the rise in supply from some OPEC and non-OPEC members will be met by a decline from others; doing the math here will be complicated for investors betting on the direction of prices.
Iran currently faces the re-imposition of US sanctions on its Oil exports after the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal. Venezuela is also on investors’ radars as there are further signs that its Oil industry is entering a dangerous new phase. Meanwhile, Libyan Oil supply is also at risk with the current political mess. These three countries together may contribute to a fall of more than two million barrels a day by the end of 2018, which is likely to keep Oil prices elevated in the second half of 2018.
Investors and traders should also keep a close eye on the US Treasury yields. The gap between short- and long-term US bond yields fell to its narrowest levels since 2007, and as we get closer to the inversion, the probability of a recession becomes higher.
E-Financial
CBN Dismisses Polaris Bank Liquidation Claim

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has debunked rumours suggesting that Polaris Bank is undergoing liquidation, assuring the public that the country’s banking system remains stable and secure.

Polaris Bank
The apex bank disclosed this in a post on X, where it shared a screenshot of a viral claim and flagged it as false.
It clarified that the claims, suggesting Polaris Bank had failed to meet recapitalisation requirements and was set for liquidation, are entirely false and do not reflect the current state of the Nigerian banking sector
“The Central Bank of Nigeria has noticed reports, in certain media outlets, about a recommendation for the Federal Government to take over some CBN-supervised financial institutions,” said Hakama Sidi-Ali, apex bank’s acting Director, Corporate Communications, in a statement.
“To avoid any doubt, Nigerian banks are still safe and sound. The CBN advises the public to go about their daily lives without getting disturbed by reports regarding the health of Nigerian banks that have not come from the CBN.
“The CBN is fully equipped to carry out its statutory duty of ensuring the stability of Nigeria’s financial system. “We assure the general public and depositors that their funds are safe in Nigerian financial institutions. “Bank customers are therefore advised to proceed with their banking transactions as u
The clarification was after a viral post, claiming that Polaris Bank was facing liquidation for failing to meet the Bank’s recapitalisation requirements, and could soon lose its operating licence, with the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation set to take over the process.
It further alleged that founder of the Eleganza Group, Razaq Okoya, had made a bid to acquire and revive the bank, pending approval from regulators and shareholders.
Sharing a screenshot of the viral claim, however, the apex bank flagged it as “fake content.”
It clarified that the claims, suggesting Polaris Bank had failed to meet recapitalisation requirements and was set for liquidation did not reflect the current state of the Nigerian banking sector.
“This content is fake. Let the public be guided. The Nigerian Banking System is Safe and Secure,” the bank said.
On April 1, the CBN confirmed that 33 banks successfully met the revised minimum capital requirements under its recapitalisation programme, marking a significant milestone in strengthening the financial system.
E-Financial
AfDB Okays $200m for Nigeria’s Digital Backbone, Others

African Development Bank Group (AfDB) has approved a $200 million loan to Nigeria to support a landmark digital infrastructure initiative aimed at expanding broadband access, developing digital skills and driving large‑scale job creation.
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The financing will support the Digital Value Chain Infrastructure for Boosting Employment project, known as D‑VIBE or Project BRIDGE. The initiative seeks to deploy about 90 000 kilometres of new open‑access fibre optic cable across Nigeria, extending the national fibre backbone from roughly 30 000 km to about 120 000 km.
The expanded network will connect all 774 local government areas, including schools, hospitals, agro‑industrial zones, rural communities and commercial centres. It will also establish cross‑border digital links with Benin, Cameroon, Niger and Chad, strengthening regional integration.
Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and West Africa’s largest economy, with the digital sector increasingly contributing to gross domestic product growth. The project is expected to close major connectivity gaps, raise productivity and unlock job opportunities for young people.
D‑VIBE is structured as a public‑private partnership through a special purpose vehicle, with public ownership capped at between 25% and 49% and private sector participation ranging from 51% to 75%.
This structure is intended to address high fibre rollout costs, including construction and right‑of‑way challenges.
The African Development Bank loan forms part of an $800 million sovereign financing package, alongside $500 million from the World Bank and $100 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Total project financing is estimated at $2 billion, including a $25.79 million European Union grant, a $2.6 million Multilateral Cooperation Centre for Development Finance preparation grant and at least $1.2 billion in private sector investment.
“Nigeria has the talent, the market and the ambition, but lacked the backbone infrastructure to connect opportunity with potential,” said Abdul Kamara, Director General of the African Development Bank Group’s Nigeria Office.
“This project will deliver high‑speed connectivity nationwide and equip young people to build digital careers.”
Beyond physical infrastructure, the project will support affordable devices, large‑scale digital skills training and digital platforms in priority sectors. It also includes cybersecurity, competition reforms and resilience measures, including greater use of renewable and hybrid power.
D‑VIBE is expected to help create up to 2.8 million jobs and raise broadband penetration from 45% to around 70% by 2030. The project aligns with Nigeria’s Vision 2050 and continental development priorities.
E-Financial
Nigeria’s Growth under Threat as Poverty Deepens, World Bank Warns

World Bank has warned that Nigeria faces a deepening early childhood development crisis in health, nutrition, and learning, threatening long-term productivity and economic growth amid persistent poverty.

World Bank
In its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update, “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development,” the bank noted moderate 2026 growth driven by services like ICT, financial services, and real estate, following 4.0 per cent GDP expansion in 2025. Inflation eased to double digits via tight policy, stable exchange rates, and better food supply, while reserves hit $45.5 billion gross by end-2025, covering 8.7 months of imports.
Fiscal deficit widened slightly as non-oil revenues rose to 8.5 per cent of GDP from improved tax administration, e-filing, and VAT e-invoicing, though wage growth lagged inflation, leaving real incomes strained and poverty unchanged.
The bank highlighted poor outcomes with 110 of 1,000 children dying before age five, 40 per cent stunted, and 52 per cent developmentally off-track at school entry—gaps three times wider in poor households and exceeding 40 points between rich and poor. It urged investment in the first 2,000 days for better education, earnings, health, and cohesion.
Regionally, Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2026 growth forecast dipped to 4.1 per cent from 4.4 per cent due to Middle East conflict inflating fuel and fertiliser costs.
Finance Minister Wale Edun countered with recovery signs: falling inflation, rising non-oil revenues, declining debt-to-GDP, and stabilising naira via digital tracking, audits, and PPP shifts. Budget Director Tanimu Yakubu described reforms as correcting imbalances from subsidies and multiple rates, boosting FAAC revenues 40 per cent and reserves over $40 billion, with debt under 30 per cent of GDP.
NACCIMA President Jani Ibrahim called for data-driven strategies amid tax changes, inflation, and global tensions, eyeing AfCFTA, digital economy, and green investments for growth.
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