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Financial Markets Gripped By Geopolitics

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In this write-up, Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM, comments on the ongoing geopolitical risks affecting markets.

Financial markets were firmly gripped by geopolitical risks on Tuesday, as brewing tensions between the United States and North Korea weighed heavily on global sentiment.

Risk aversion is becoming a dominant theme amid escalating North Korean tensions, and the jitters punished Asian stocks during early trading on Wednesday.

In Europe, shares ended mostly lower yesterday and have extended losses today, as the cautious mood from Asia encouraged investors to avoid riskier assets.

The lack of appetite for risk sent U.S stocks to their lowest level in almost three weeks on Tuesday, with further downsides on the cards as the mixture of geopolitical tension and political uncertainty sours risk appetite.

The movements observed in stock markets and safe-haven assets suggest that markets have become increasingly sensitive to geopolitical influence. Recent comments from a North Korean diplomat threatening that the country was prepared to deliver ‘gift packages’ to the U.S is likely to fuel further risk aversion.

Dollar Punished By Fed Doves
King Dollar struggled to hold ground against a basket of major currencies during Wednesday’s trading session, after dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard prompted investors to re-evaluate the likelihood of another rate hike this year.

Brainard stated that inflation was “well short” of targets and the central bank should be cautious about tightening policy until policy makers are confident that inflation will rebound. These dovish remarks have effectively trimmed market expectations of a December rate hike, exposing the Greenback to further pain.

As the trading month of September gets underway, Dollar weakness is likely to remain a dominant theme; political instability in Washington and fading rate hike expectations will weigh heavily on the currency. From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index is under intense selling pressure on the daily charts. Repeated weakness below 92.00 should encourage a further depreciation towards 90.00.

Commodity Spotlight – Gold
The heightened geopolitical risks over North Korea and ongoing concerns about stubbornly low inflation in the United States have supported Gold, with prices trading around $1340 as of writing.

The yellow metal has found itself back in fashion, with further upside expected as geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty in Washington accelerate the flight to safety. From a technical standpoint, Gold is bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. A solid breakout and daily close above $1340 should open a path higher towards $1350.

Currency Spotlight – EURUSD
Thursday’s main risk event for the Euro will be the highly anticipated European Central Bank meeting, which is expected to conclude with interest rates left unchanged.

The prospects of the European Central Bank tapering QE have heavily supported the Euro and, with the current QE program due to end in September, tomorrow’s ECB meeting will be in sharp focus.

While markets were widely expecting the central bank to announce the winding down of its QE program this week, the resurgent Euro and the impact it may have on the inflation target may prompt the central bank to wait until October.

From a technical standpoint, the EURUSD remains bullish on the daily charts. The breakout above 1.1900 should encourage a further appreciation towards 1.1970 and 1.2000, respectively. In an alternative scenario, repeated weakness below 1.1900 is likely to trigger a selloff towards 1.1770.


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E-Financial

CBN Dismisses  Polaris Bank Liquidation Claim

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has debunked rumours suggesting that Polaris Bank is undergoing liquidation, assuring the public that the country’s banking system remains stable and secure.

CBN Dismisses  Polaris Bank Liquidation Claim

Polaris Bank

The apex bank disclosed this in a post on X, where it shared a screenshot of a viral claim and flagged it as false.

It clarified that the claims, suggesting Polaris Bank had failed to meet recapitalisation requirements and was set for liquidation, are entirely false and do not reflect the current state of the Nigerian banking sector

“The Central Bank of Nigeria has noticed reports, in certain media outlets, about a recommendation for the Federal Government to take over some CBN-supervised financial institutions,” said Hakama Sidi-Ali, apex bank’s acting Director, Corporate Communications,  in a statement.

“To avoid any doubt, Nigerian banks are still safe and sound. The CBN advises the public to go about their daily lives without getting disturbed by reports regarding the health of Nigerian banks that have not come from the CBN.

“The CBN is fully equipped to carry out its statutory duty of ensuring the stability of Nigeria’s financial system. “We assure the general public and depositors that their funds are safe in Nigerian financial institutions. “Bank customers are therefore advised to proceed with their banking transactions as u

The clarification was after a viral post, claiming that Polaris Bank was facing liquidation for failing to meet the Bank’s recapitalisation requirements, and could soon lose its operating licence, with the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation set to take over the process.

It further alleged that founder of the Eleganza Group, Razaq Okoya, had made a bid to acquire and revive the bank, pending approval from regulators and shareholders.

Sharing a screenshot of the viral claim, however, the apex bank flagged it as “fake content.”

It clarified that the claims, suggesting Polaris Bank had failed to meet recapitalisation requirements and was set for liquidation did not reflect the current state of the Nigerian banking sector.

“This content is fake. Let the public be guided. The Nigerian Banking System is Safe and Secure,” the bank said.

On April 1, the CBN confirmed that 33 banks successfully met the revised minimum capital requirements under its recapitalisation programme, marking a significant milestone in strengthening the financial system.

 

 


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AfDB Okays $200m for Nigeria’s Digital Backbone, Others

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African Development Bank Group (AfDB) has approved a $200 million loan to Nigeria to support a landmark digital infrastructure initiative aimed at expanding broadband access, developing digital skills and driving large‑scale job creation.

AfDB Okays $200m for Nigeria’s Digital Backbone, Others

The financing will support the Digital Value Chain Infrastructure for Boosting Employment project, known as D‑VIBE or Project BRIDGE. The initiative seeks to deploy about 90 000 kilometres of new open‑access fibre optic cable across Nigeria, extending the national fibre backbone from roughly 30 000 km to about 120 000 km.

The expanded network will connect all 774 local government areas, including schools, hospitals, agro‑industrial zones, rural communities and commercial centres. It will also establish cross‑border digital links with Benin, Cameroon, Niger and Chad, strengthening regional integration.

Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and West Africa’s largest economy, with the digital sector increasingly contributing to gross domestic product growth. The project is expected to close major connectivity gaps, raise productivity and unlock job opportunities for young people.

D‑VIBE is structured as a public‑private partnership through a special purpose vehicle, with public ownership capped at between 25% and 49% and private sector participation ranging from 51% to 75%.

This structure is intended to address high fibre rollout costs, including construction and right‑of‑way challenges.

The African Development Bank loan forms part of an $800 million sovereign financing package, alongside $500 million from the World Bank and $100 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Total project financing is estimated at $2 billion, including a $25.79 million European Union grant, a $2.6 million Multilateral Cooperation Centre for Development Finance preparation grant and at least $1.2 billion in private sector investment.

“Nigeria has the talent, the market and the ambition, but lacked the backbone infrastructure to connect opportunity with potential,” said Abdul Kamara, Director General of the African Development Bank Group’s Nigeria Office.

“This project will deliver high‑speed connectivity nationwide and equip young people to build digital careers.”

Beyond physical infrastructure, the project will support affordable devices, large‑scale digital skills training and digital platforms in priority sectors. It also includes cybersecurity, competition reforms and resilience measures, including greater use of renewable and hybrid power.

D‑VIBE is expected to help create up to 2.8 million jobs and raise broadband penetration from 45% to around 70% by 2030. The project aligns with Nigeria’s Vision 2050 and continental development priorities.


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Nigeria’s Growth under Threat as Poverty Deepens, World Bank Warns

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World Bank has warned that Nigeria faces a deepening early childhood development crisis in health, nutrition, and learning, threatening long-term productivity and economic growth amid persistent poverty.

Nigeria’s Growth under Threat as Poverty Deepens, World Bank Warns

World Bank

In its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update, “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development,” the bank noted moderate 2026 growth driven by services like ICT, financial services, and real estate, following 4.0 per cent GDP expansion in 2025. Inflation eased to double digits via tight policy, stable exchange rates, and better food supply, while reserves hit $45.5 billion gross by end-2025, covering 8.7 months of imports.

Fiscal deficit widened slightly as non-oil revenues rose to 8.5 per cent of GDP from improved tax administration, e-filing, and VAT e-invoicing, though wage growth lagged inflation, leaving real incomes strained and poverty unchanged.

The bank highlighted poor outcomes with 110 of 1,000 children dying before age five, 40 per cent stunted, and 52 per cent developmentally off-track at school entry—gaps three times wider in poor households and exceeding 40 points between rich and poor. It urged investment in the first 2,000 days for better education, earnings, health, and cohesion.

Regionally, Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2026 growth forecast dipped to 4.1 per cent from 4.4 per cent due to Middle East conflict inflating fuel and fertiliser costs.

Finance Minister Wale Edun countered with recovery signs: falling inflation, rising non-oil revenues, declining debt-to-GDP, and stabilising naira via digital tracking, audits, and PPP shifts. Budget Director Tanimu Yakubu described reforms as correcting imbalances from subsidies and multiple rates, boosting FAAC revenues 40 per cent and reserves over $40 billion, with debt under 30 per cent of GDP.

NACCIMA President Jani Ibrahim called for data-driven strategies amid tax changes, inflation, and global tensions, eyeing AfCFTA, digital economy, and green investments for growth.


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