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Firm Explores 2025 Potential IT Outage and Supply Chain Risk Scenarios

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As part of its annual Kaspersky Security Bulletin, the company’s experts have analysed significant supply chain attacks and IT outages from the past year and explored potential future risk scenarios, providing insights aimed at helping businesses of all sizes enhance cybersecurity, build resilience, and prepare for possible emerging threats in 2025.

In 2024, supply chain attacks and IT outages emerged as dominant cybersecurity concerns, demonstrating that virtually no infrastructure is immune to risk.

A faulty CrowdStrike update affected millions of systems, and sophisticated incidents, such as the XZ backdoor and the Polyfill.io supply chain attack exposed the risks inherent in widely used tools.

These and other high-profile cases highlight the need for rigorous security measures, robust patch and update management, and proactive defenses to safeguard global supply chains and infrastructure.

In its “Story of the Year”, the Kaspersky Security Bulletin reflects on 2024’s past incidents, while contemplating hypothetical future scenarios, and considering their potential consequences, as follows:

What if a major AI provider faced an outage or a data breach? Businesses are increasingly relying on various models such as those from OpenAI, Meta, Anthropic and others.

However, despite the excellent user experience these integrations offer, they introduce significant cyber risks. Reliance on a single or limited number of AI service providers creates concentrated points of failure.

If a major AI company experiences a critical disruption, it could significantly impact dozens or even thousands of services that depend on them.

Furthermore, an incident at any major AI provider could result in one of the most severe data leaks, as these systems may store vast amounts of sensitive information.

What if on-device AI tools were exploited? As AI becomes more integrated into everyday devices, the risk of it becoming an attack vector grows significantly.

For instance, the Operation Triangulation campaign, uncovered by Kaspersky in 2023, demonstrated how attackers could compromise device integrity by exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities in the system software and hardware to deploy advanced spyware.

Similar potential software or hardware-assisted vulnerabilities in the neural processing units powering AI – both broadly and in specific platforms like Apple Intelligence – could, if discovered, extend or present an even greater threat. Exploiting such weaknesses could harness AI capabilities to significantly amplify the scope and impact of such attacks.

Kaspersky’s research into Operation Triangulation also revealed the first of its kind case reported by the company: the misuse of on-device machine learning for data extraction, highlighting that the features designed to enhance user experience are already being weaponised by sophisticated threat actors.

What if threat actors disrupted satellite connectivity? While the space industry in general has been encountering various cyberattacks for a while, the new target for threat actors may be satellite Internet providers as important elements of the global connectivity chain.

Satellite Internet can provide temporary communication links when other systems are down; airlines, ships, and other platforms may rely on it to provide onboard connectivity; it may also be used to enable secure communication services.

This presents cyber risks: a targeted cyberattack or a faulty update from a leading or dominant satellite provider could cause Internet outages and potential communication breakdowns, impacting individuals and organisations.

What if major physical threats to the Internet occurred? Continuing the topic of connectivity, the Internet is also vulnerable to physical threats. 95% of global data is transmitted through subsea cables, and there are nearly 1,500 Internet Exchange Points (IXPs) – physical locations, sometimes within data centers, where different networks exchange traffic.

A disruption to just a few critical components of this chain – such as key cables or IXPs – could overload the remaining infrastructure, potentially causing widespread outages and significantly impacting global connectivity.

What if severe vulnerabilities in Windows and Linux kernel were exploited? These operating systems power many of the world’s critical assets, including servers, manufacturing equipment, logistics systems, IoT devices, and others.

A remotely exploitable kernel vulnerability in these systems could expose countless devices and networks worldwide to potential attacks, creating a high-risk situation in which global supply chains could face significant disruption.

“Supply chain risks may seem overwhelming, but awareness is the first step toward prevention,” said Igor Kuznetsov, Director of Global Research and Analysis Team (GReAT) at Kaspersky.

“By testing updates rigorously, leveraging AI-driven anomaly detection, and diversifying providers to reduce single points of failure, we can reduce weak elements and build resilience. A culture of responsibility among personnel is equally vital, as human vigilance remains the cornerstone of security. Together, these measures can safeguard supply chains and ensure a more secure future”.


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E-Business

Kaspersky Launches OT Calculator to Align Cybersecurity Investments with Business Goals

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Kaspersky’s new online tool has been specially developed for industrial organisations to assess the potential costs associated with insufficient operational technology (OT) security.

By offering detailed financial forecasts, the calculator empowers senior management to make well-informed decisions regarding security investments.

Industrial organisations increasingly depend on interconnected systems, elevating cybersecurity to a critical factor in business resilience and profitability.

According to VDC Research, over 60% of industrial companies last year reported that cybersecurity breaches had led to significant costs. Despite this, a persistent disconnect remains between security teams and executive leadership as security professionals focus on minimising risk, while executives must balance cybersecurity concerns with broader business objectives. This misalignment often results in competing priorities and underfunded security initiatives.

To bridge this gap, Kaspersky has launched the OT Cybersecurity Savings Calculator, an innovative online tool designed specifically for industrial organisations to assess the potential costs of inadequate operational technology (OT) security¹.

The primary aim of this tool is to translate cyber risks into tangible financial metrics and support strategic discussions around priorities and budget allocation. By entering details such as their sector, sub-sector, region, company size, breach history, and existing cybersecurity measures, organisations can estimate their potential cost savings and receive customised, actionable recommendations.

The calculator benchmarks performance against industry peers and highlights the company’s position within the current threat landscape.

“We believe this calculator is a powerful resource for transforming complex cyber risk data into straightforward financial insights. It enables OT leaders, security professionals, and executive teams to develop clear, data-driven business cases and recognise the value of cybersecurity investments. With actionable guidance, it promotes a comprehensive approach to resource management and strengthens overall organisational resilience,” comments Andrey Strelkov, Head of Industrial Cybersecurity Product line at Kaspersky.


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Local App Developers Rake $1m in Sales in 2025- NOTAP

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National Office for Technology Acquisition and Promotion (NOTAP) has said Nigerian software developers have reached significant milestones with locally made applications generating over one million Dollar in sales across domestic and regional markets.

Local App Developers Rake $1m in Sales in 2025- NOTAP

Dr Obiageli Amadiobi, director-general of NOTAP, said this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), on Thursday in Abuja.

Amadiobi said the development signified the growing strength of Nigeria’s digital innovation ecosystem and how local innovation powers digital growth.

She said it was also a direct outcome of targeted support initiatives led by NOTAP.

She added that the initiative helped to build capacity, protect intellectual property, and connect developers to market opportunities.

According to the NOTAP boss, the journey from concept to impact started with understanding and securing intellectual property (IP) rights, a step many local innovators missed.

“Whether it’s a literary work, a laboratory invention, or a creative digital product, the process of bringing an idea to life demands immense time, skill, and dedication.

“An innovator might wake up with a solution to a pressing problem; spend months testing and refining it and achieve remarkable results; so it is their fundamental right to patent that creation and claim ownership.

“Without this protection, someone else could easily replicate their work; patent it in their name; and legally control what was built with Nigerian brainpower,” she said.

Amadiobi said that the challenge was compounded by widespread digital piracy and counterfeiting, which hit the ICT sector hardest.

“From copied software applications to replicated content on social platforms like TikTok, unauthorised duplication has become a major barrier to growth.

“We see talented young creators develop unique digital content or tools, only to watch others rebrand and profit from their work within weeks,” she said.

The DG noted that most popular online personalities with distinctive styles often don’t realise they could protect their original contributions through IP registration.

She said that to address these gaps and unlock the value of Nigerian innovation, NOTAP implemented a multi-pronged strategy,- a cornerstone initiative – which is the Local Vendor Policy.

“The Local Vendor Policy mandates that foreign technology firms entering Nigeria partner with domestic counterparts,’’ she said.

Amadiobi said that among the performing apps are solutions addressing critical local challenges such as a mobile health platform that now serves 750,000 users across six states.

“There is also the agricultural marketplace connecting smallholder farmers to buyers; and an educational tool that has been adopted by 200 schools to improve learning outcomes,” she said.

She added that the apps were developed by teams that gained skills and resources through NOTAP’s Local Vendor Policy.

According to her, the policy requires foreign technology firms operating in Nigeria to allocate a portion of their technical service fees to local partners.

“Three years ago, many of these developers were only providing support services to foreign companies.

“But today, they are building their own products that compete globally. 60 per cent of last year’s sales came from other African countries, showing our developers can lead on the continent,” she said.

The D-G explained that the one million dollar figure represented sales from over 50 locally developed apps, with individual developers earning between 5,000 dollars and 80,000 dollars from their products.

“Looking ahead, NOTAP aims to double these sales figures by 2027, with plans to expand support to developers focusing on fintech, renewable energy management, and climate adaptation tools.

“These are the sectors identified as high-growth opportunities for Nigerian innovation,’’ Amadiobi said


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Gold Hits Record $5,110/Ounce Amid Trump Tariff Threats, Geopolitical Fears

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Gold prices smashed through $5,100 per ounce on Monday, January 26, surging to a historic peak of $5,110.50 as investors rushed into the safe-haven asset amid escalating geopolitical tensions and U.S. policy volatility.

Gold Hits Record $5,110/Ounce Amid Trump Tariff Threats, Geopolitical Fears

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Spot gold climbed 2.2% to $5,089.78 by 0656 GMT, while U.S. February futures rose similarly to $5,086.30. The metal, up 64% in 2025—its strongest annual gain since 1979—has now advanced over 18% year-to-date, fueled by safe-haven buying, anticipated U.S. rate cuts, China’s 14th consecutive month of central bank purchases in December, and massive ETF inflows.

Analysts point to a crisis of confidence in U.S. assets, sparked by President Trump’s erratic threats last week. He retreated from tariffs on European allies to pressure Greenland seizure, then vowed 100% tariffs on Canada over a potential China trade deal and 200% on French wines to push President Emmanuel Macron toward a “Board of Peace” initiative.

“This Trump administration has caused a permanent rupture in global norms, driving everyone to gold as the sole refuge,” said Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com.

A weakening dollar—hit by a rising yen and pre-Fed meeting caution—further boosted gold’s appeal for non-dollar holders, with markets eyeing possible yen intervention.


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