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Forex: Overview on the 2017 Key Market Themes

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Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM
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Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM provides an overview on the 2017 key market themes. Whether you consider 2016 a good or a bad year, it was by no doubt the year of surprises. Not just because Donald Trump was elected the 45th president of the United Stated or because the UK decided to leave the EU, but the markets’ reactions to these events were even more surprising and most forecasters got it wrong.

A new year has started and many questions remain to be answered; here are some of the most asked questions for 2017: Will the Trump rally carry on? How many rate hikes will the Fed deliver? What is the future of the UK and the EU? Will OPEC finally balance the oil markets?

Will The Trump Rally Carry On?
Following the election of Donald Trump on November 8, all U.S. major indices recorded new highs.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 8%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite gained 5%, and the small-cap stock market index Russell 2000 outperformed its peers rising by more than 13%.

From a market valuation perspective, very few may disagree that stocks are expensive, but the expected combination of fiscal stimulus and deregulation for some sectors under Trump’s presidency were the main catalysts for the rally. Of course, financial markets tend to price in events before they occur, but this time I believe investors have priced in most of the good news, and it requires very strong corporate profit growth to keep this bull market alive.

Predicting the end of the bull market is a tough call, but the downside risk in 2017 is likely to be larger than the upside potential. If U.S. policy makers succeed in delivering the anticipated growth we can see another 5 – 10% gains in U.S. stocks, but failure to do so will cause a steep selloff that could exceed 20%.

Day traders may be luckier than investors in 2017 as a new indicator has been added to their watch list: Trump’s twitter account.

On December 6, Trump tweeted “Boeing is building a brand new 747 Air Force One for future presidents, but costs are out of control, more than $4 billion. Cancel order!”, few seconds later Boeing stock wiped almost $1 billion from its market cap. We expect to see more of these tweets in 2017 and algorithms will probably require long time to put them into play, leaving retail traders with opportunities to profit from such market disruptions.

How Many Rate Hikes Will the Fed Deliver?
2016 kicked off with the expectation that four rate hikes would occur, but only one was delivered in December.

Although it was anticipated that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in their forward guidance for 2017, December’s meeting took many economists by surprise as they hinted for three rate hikes.

Since the financial crisis in 2008 the Fed has got many things wrong, whether it is forecasting rate hikes, economic growth and inflation levels, and now with a new administration to take office on January 20, this could make the Fed’s projections even more complicated.

Inflation has always been the main justification for low interest rates, but now, even before Trump takes office, a couple of inflation gauges are running above 2%. The Fed did not account for any fiscal stimulus measures in their most recent projections, suggesting that huge shifts in expectations may be seen.

The rising U.S. dollar which is currently at a 14-year high is another source of worry for the Fed, and tightening too fast will lead to even stronger dollar hitting U.S. exports and multinational companies’ profits.

If Trump’s measures were passed and economic growth picked up, the Fed will have few options, either tightening monetary policy more aggressively, or to fall behind the curve and let the fixed income market lead the way, but three rate hikes in 2017 is my base case. Either way the dollar is likely to remain strong as divergence in monetary policies will continue to widen.

Future of the UK and the EU?
Hard, Soft or Grey Brexit. This was the most argued topic in the past six months, and until now there’s no clear path on what direction the UK will move.

The pound ended 2016 17.5% lower against the US dollar since June 23 and there’s lot of speculation on how it will end in 2017. Of course, much will depend on the path Britain will choose.

Theresa May promised to trigger Article 50 by the end of March, but we still need to hear from the Supreme Court on whether the UK government needs parliamentary approval before starting the withdrawal from the EU.

The delay in triggering Article 50 will be positive in the short term for sterling, and negotiations may last well beyond 2017 on the terms of Brexit.

Meanwhile investors will be focusing on the economic developments and the direction of the Bank of England’s monetary policy, which will probably be the second major central bank to raise rates after the Fed.

Politics within the EU will rule investment decisions in 2017. Germany and France, the two largest economies will hold elections amid the rise of Eurosceptic candidates.

Italy is likely to see an early vote, after the resignation of Matteo Renzi last month, and the Five Star Movement has vowed that if it wins power it will hold a referendum on whether Italy should leave the Eurozone.

Although many polls indicate that far right candidates are still behind, nothing should be taken for granted after Trump won the U.S. presidency and Britain voted to leave the EU. Expect to see more pressure on the Euro and look out for parity against the dollar in the first six months. 

Will OPEC finally balance the oil market?
After hitting a low of $27 a barrel in February 2016, Brent prices more than doubled by the end of year and many investment banks still see further increase in prices for 2017.

OPEC’s decision to cut its output by 1.2 million barrels a day starting January, and non-OPEC producers to cut 558K barrels for the next six months to drain record global oil inventories led Brent prices to post its first yearly increase since 2012.

Whether more appreciation is to be seen in 2017 will depend on multiple factors, and the biggest one currently looming is compliance to production cuts. It’s in no one’s interest not to comply, but historic figures show that delivering on previous production cuts has been poor.

U.S. producers are another element to be focused on, how fast shale may come back is a key component to be considered in the price equation.

Although Trump has made the energy sector part of his economic growth plan, I believe it won’t have a lot of impact if prices don’t hold up. The dollar strength will likely impact the demand side, as continued strength will make oil more expensive in other currencies.

With all these unknows we will likely see prices moving in tight ranges in the first quarter until we get a clearer picture.

 


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E-Financial

NDIC Insures 99 Percent of Bank Customers

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has reaffirmed its commitment to protecting depositors and sustaining confidence in the nation’s banking system, declaring that its insurance framework currently safeguards about 99 per cent of customers across Nigerian banks.

NDIC Insures 99 Percent of Bank Customers

Speaking during the NDIC Special Day at the 37th Enugu International Trade Fair, Thompson Oludare, managing director and chief executive, highlighted the Corporation’s role as a critical stabiliser in the financial sector, particularly in times of economic uncertainty.

Addressing participants on the theme, “Empowering MSMEs for global competitiveness”, Oludare said the NDIC remains a dependable backbone for small businesses by protecting their funds against bank failures.

He disclosed that the Corporation reviewed and increased its insurance coverage in 2024 in line with prevailing economic realities. Under the revised structure, depositors in Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), Mobile Money Operators, and Non-Interest Banks are insured up to ₦5,000,000, while those in Microfinance Banks and Primary Mortgage Institutions are covered up to ₦2,000,000.

Explaining the operational mechanism behind depositor protection, Oludare noted that the NDIC does not depend on government funding to reimburse customers of failed banks.

Rather, it draws from the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF), which is financed through premiums contributed by licensed financial institutions.

He described the process as efficient and sustainable, enabling the Corporation to meet its obligations promptly without placing pressure on public finances.

Highlighting recent technological advancements, the NDIC boss revealed that the use of the Bank Verification Number (BVN) has significantly improved the speed of payments to affected depositors.

According to him, the BVN system allows the Corporation to trace alternative bank accounts of customers and process reimbursements within days of a bank’s closure, eliminating the delays previously associated with manual claims.

For depositors with balances above the insured limits, Oludare reassured that recovery efforts remain ongoing through liquidation processes.

“This is a continuous process,” he stated. “Additional dividend payments are made in tranches as more funds are recovered. We have demonstrated this successfully with the liquidation of Union Homes, Aso Savings and Loans, and the more recent Heritage Bank Limited, where multiple tranches of dividends have already been disbursed.”

He also cautioned Nigerians against falling victim to fraudulent financial schemes, popularly known as “wonder banks”, urging them to verify the credibility of financial institutions before investing.

On his part, Nnanyelugo Onyemelukwe, president of the Enugu Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (ECCIMA), described the Corporation as a dependable safeguard for depositors.

According to him, the NDIC remains “a beacon of hope for depositors”, providing a “great confidence backup” in situations where banks fail due to mismanagement or distress.

Onyemelukwe also called for stronger regulatory oversight by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to further reduce the risk of bank failures and sustain public trust in the financial system.

 


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CBN Bars Chronic Loan Defaulters from Accessing Loans

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has officially restricted banking services for “chronic defaulters” and large-ticket obligors with non-performing loans.

CBN Bars Chronic Loan Defaulters from Accessing Loans

In a sweeping move to enforce credit discipline and safeguard the nation’s financial system, the apex bank issued a policy statement on Wednesday following remarks by Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, at the 4th Annual IMF/AFRITAC West 2 High-Level Executive Forum in Abuja.

The Governor made it clear that the era of regulatory forbearance for delinquent borrowers is over.

He emphasised that the bank is shifting toward a more aggressive stance on corporate governance to ensure that the N4.61tn in new capital recently attracted by the banking sector is protected from systemic abuse.

“Our stance on corporate governance is unequivocal: zero tolerance for violations. By ending years of regulatory forbearance, we have reinforced accountability, tightened supervision, and elevated compliance standards across the sector,” the Governor stated.

The new directive specifically targets “large-ticket obligors”, individuals or entities with significant outstanding debts classified as non-performing in the Credit Risk Management System. Under the new rules, these defaulters will be barred from accessing not only fresh credit but also essential contingent liabilities and trade instruments.

“We have implemented a restriction of banking services to non-performing large-ticket obligors. This decisive step underscores our commitment to credit discipline, financial integrity, and accountability,” the statement read.

According to the CBN, the move is designed to instil a “culture of repayment” that has historically been lacking among high-profile borrowers. By cutting off access to instruments such as letters of credit and performance bonds, the regulator aims to prevent “credit jumping”, a practice where defaulters migrate between banks to accumulate more debt.

“By curbing access to banking services for chronic defaulters, we are reinforcing the culture of repayment, protecting depositors, and safeguarding the stability of the financial system,” the apex bank added.

Beyond the crackdown on debtors, Cardoso reaffirmed that the CBN remains firmly committed to orthodox monetary policy. This approach prioritises price stability and the use of traditional tools to anchor inflation expectations, moving away from unconventional interventions to restore confidence in the naira.

“The CBN remains firmly anchored in orthodox monetary policy, focused on restoring price stability, strengthening policy credibility, and anchoring expectations through discipline and consistency,” the statement concluded.

For years, the Nigerian banking sector has struggled with “chronic defaulters”, wealthy individuals or massive corporations that borrow billions and fail to repay.

These are often referred to as “large-ticket obligors”. When these loans go bad, they threaten the liquidity of banks and the safety of ordinary citizens’ deposits.

Under the leadership of Cardoso, the CBN is pivoting toward “Orthodox Monetary Policy”. This means moving away from the era of massive development interventions and direct lending to sectors like agriculture and focusing instead on its core mandate: price stability and financial system regulation.


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Breaking…..Kuda Lays Off Many Employees in Broad Restructuring

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Kuda Technologies Limited, a Nigerian digital bank backed by global investors, has laid off employees across several departments as it restructures its operations, even as the company says its financial position has been improving.

Kuda Lays Off Many Employees in Broad Restructuring

The job cuts affected multiple departments.

The firm however said that the decision to cut job is not driven by financial pressure, but part of the natural evolution of a company at our stage, aligning with industry benchmarks.

On Wednesday, March 25, staff were invited to a company-wide video call with senior executives.

Before the meeting ended, hundreds of employees were informed that their roles had been terminated as part of a broader restructuring.

The cuts affected multiple teams, including marketing, where 19 of the unit’s 40 employees were impacted, two affected workers said.

In a statement emailed on Friday, a Kuda spokesperson said the move followed a strategic review of the business and was meant to prepare the company for its next phase of growth.

“Kuda is evolving how the organisation is structured to support the next phase of our growth and scale,” the spokesperson said. The company added that the decision was not driven by financial pressure or employee performance but by changes in operational priorities.

Employees received notices explaining that the company had reviewed its future direction and industry benchmarks before deciding to reorganise some departments.

The process, according to the company, was aimed at aligning its workforce with long-term goals.

Still, the way the layoffs were communicated unsettled some staff.

An unusual company-wide meeting was scheduled earlier in the day, and several employees initially struggled to access the call link, according to a former employee. When the meeting began, senior leaders confirmed the job cuts.

Some workers also questioned the timing of the restructuring, pointing to recent hiring decisions, including senior-level recruits.

Kuda said it is offering affected employees severance packages that vary depending on role and length of service.

According to a person familiar with the terms, some staff may receive up to seven months of pay. The company has also proposed enhanced exit packages tied to settlement agreements.

The layoffs come at a time when many African fintech companies are shifting focus from rapid expansion to profitability and operational efficiency after years of venture-backed growth.

Kuda, which has about seven million registered customers, has been narrowing its losses in recent years. The company reduced its losses to about $5.83 million in 2024 from $35.11 million a year earlier, helped by stronger performance from its Nigerian business and lower operating expenses.

Its Nigerian unit nearly doubled revenue in local currency to about N21.2 billion during the period.

The fintech has also reported strong growth in transaction activity. In its last public update, Kuda said it had processed more than 300 million transactions worth roughly N14.3 trillion and issued N16.4 billion in overdrafts, up 43 percent from the previous quarter.

Babs Ogundeyi, chief executive officer said the company’s net margin has ranged between three percent and seven percent per month. If that pace continues through the year, the digital bank could process more transactions in 2025 than it did in its first five years combined.

Kuda last raised external funding in 2024, securing $20 million in equity at a valuation of about $500 million. The fundraising came after the company recorded nearly $45 million in losses over the two years leading up to the round.

The restructuring suggests the startup is now adjusting its cost base and internal structure as competition intensifies in Nigeria’s fast-growing digital banking market and investors push fintech firms to show clearer paths to sustainable growth.

 

 


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