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FXTM Analysis: IMF’s Warning Weighs Heavily on Sentiment in Nigeria

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The improving sentiment towards the Nigerian economy was dealt a heavy blow in March following reports of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) warning of a potential economic collapse if the nation failed to move ahead with reforms.

Although at the start of the year the economic outlook was elevated on repeated occasion with even the World Bank predicting an encouraging growth for 2017, the pending report from the IMF which may be seen as a warning could create some headwinds as the nation attempt to secure international loans worth $1.4 billion. While global markets have acknowledged that the largest economy in Africa is in the process of a key fundamental transformation that may exceed all expectations, there still remains a threat of internal and external risks creating obstacles.

 Some optimism still exits over the economic growth recovery plan for 2017-2020 which displayed an encouraging outlook for the nation.

The four-year plan was built around achieving a healthy economic growth and sustainable development while the nation embarked on its quest to breaking away from oil reliance. With there being a very strong focus on the nation enhancing both public and private sector efficiency while also boosting overall productivity, the growth forecast of 7% by 2020 could become a reality if the protocol is followed.

Nigeria must do all it can to achieve a stable macroeconomic environment such as invest heavily in agriculture and bolster infrastructure investments to generate sustainable economic growth in the longer term.

Focusing on Nigeria’s macro fundamentals, economic data this quarter has been mixed with inflation cooling down for the first time in 15 months in February. While inflation has started to somewhat stabilize, the high unemployment remains a cause for concern which may become another stumbling block to stable economic growth.

The mixed economic data and lingering uncertainty still enshrouding Nigeria have encouraged the Central Bank of Nigeria to maintain a passive stance in its recent policy meeting. Although the sentiment towards the nation continues to display some early signs of improvement, long-term fears over decelerating economic growth still weigh heavily on sentiment.

While the Central Bank of Nigeria has intervened to somewhat quell the foreign exchange scarcity dilemma, the multiple exchanges is a damaging policy that even the IMF has urged the government to rectify.

Speaking of foreign exchange policies, the Naira currently trades around 390 on the parallel exchange after the Central Bank of Nigeria injected a mammoth $1.138 billion in the forex markets to meet bids for forwards.

While the repeated injections of Dollars in the foreign exchange may buoy the Naira, questions should be raised over the sustainability of this method. With the multiple exchanges still a major cause for concern that needs to be seriously dealt with, expectations remain heightened over the CBN taking further steps to fully bridge the gap in a sustainable way, ultimately creating one equilibrium currency exchange.

Although the Naira may be poised to appreciate further in the short term as the CBN continues to pump Dollars into the markets, the possibility of a currency devaluation in the future could expose the Naira to downside shocks.

Outside of Nigeria, the cautious attitude the Federal Reserve has adopted coupled with the renewed Trump jitters has exposed the Greenback to major downside risks. A vulnerable Dollar may pose some benefits to emerging markets with Nigeria on the list.

With the growing concerns over Trump’s economic policies punishing the Dollar, emerging market currencies may receive a boost as concerns ease of capital outflows.

With Trump already facing headwinds in the early stages of his presidency in enacting his policies, the threat of the protectionism becoming a reality may subside consequently reducing some pressures on emerging markets.

Looking at oil, prices were exposed to downside risks this quarter with WTI Crude tumbling towards $47 after optimism diminished over the effectiveness of OPEC’s supply cut agreement. The consistent buildup seen in U.S Crude stockpiles swiftly revived the oversupply fears while concerns over some OPEC members not fully respecting compliance cuts weighed heavily on sentiment.

Oil prices could be instore for further punishment moving forward with the bullish effect of last year’s unexpected production cut wearing off amid the global glut anxieties. A drop in oil prices may enforce further downside pressures on Nigeria which currently remains reliant on oil exports for a chunk of its government’s revenue.

As we enter the second quarter of the trading year, investors will be paying very close attention to economic data and if the nation is able to secure the $1.4 billion worth of international loans. The blueprints to a recovery are already in place and now actions must be taken to propel the nation away from recessionary levels.

With the IMF warning Nigeria that its economy needs urgent reforms with the government changing its exchange policy, the CBN may be prompted to intervene in an effort to create some stability while improving the chances of securing the critical loan needed.

On the foreign exchange side, although the combination of repeated interventions from the CBN and Dollar weakness may elevate the Naira, the long-term trajectory still tilts to the downside, especially when factoring a potential devaluation.

 


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E-Financial

NAICOM, NCRIB Commit to Drive Penetration

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Mr. Olusegun Ayo Omosehin, the Commissioner for Insurance (CFI), has reaffirmed the National Insurance Commission’s (NAICOM) commitment to strengthening collaboration with the Nigerian Council of Registered Insurance Brokers (NCRIB) to enhance compliance, consumer protection, and broader insurance awareness across the country.

Mr. Omosehin, gave the assurance when he received a delegation from NCRIB, led by its President, Prince Babatunde Oguntade, alongside the incoming President and incumbent Vice President, Mrs. Ekeoma Ezeibe, at the Commission’s headquarters in Abuja, according to a statement.

Welcoming the delegation, the Commissioner commended the Council for its sustained partnership with NAICOM and applauded its role in advancing industry compliance and professionalism.

He congratulated Prince Aguntade, Mrs. Ezeibe, and Mr. Tope Adaramole, appreciating their contributions towards strengthening consumer protection and broker engagement.

The CFI further congratulated NCRIB on the successful passage of the Nigerian Insurance Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025, stressing that enforcement remains the real task ahead. He assured the Council that NAICOM would continue to rely on its collaboration to achieve effective implementation.

Highlighting industry priorities, Mr. Omosehin emphasized the need to expand insurance awareness, improve competence across the market, and ensure operators align with the Digitalization Regulation 2025.

 


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African Parliaments Move to Plug $587Bn Annual Revenue Leakages

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Lawmakers from several African countries converged in Abuja on Monday to collaborate on strategies to block the annual revenue leakages of $587 billion, as reported by the African Development Bank (AfDB) in May this year.

African Parliaments Move to Plug $587Bn Annual Revenue Leakages

This comes as Nigeria’s National Assembly reaffirmed its commitment to establishing the National Assembly Budget and Research Office (NABRO)—an independent, non-partisan budget office designed to support evidence-based budgeting, comparable to the United States Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The urgency to curb the $587 billion (approximately ₦887 trillion) lost to capital flight across Africa was brought to the fore at the opening session of the 8th Conference of the African Network of Parliamentary Budget Offices (AN-PBO), held in Abuja.

In his keynote address, Tajudeen Abbas, speaker of the House of Representatives, stressed that there was no better time for African legislators to confront the continent’s fiscal and governance challenges through effective and efficient legislation.

According to him, revenue leakages—particularly those resulting from corruption, illicit financial flows, and systemic inefficiencies—must be addressed through enhanced budget scrutiny and oversight.

“According to the African Development Bank, Africa loses over $587 billion annually to capital flight—money that flees the continent through corruption, illicit trade, mispricing, and profit shifting by multinational corporations,” Abbas said.

“Corruption alone is estimated to drain about $148 billion annually, while other illicit financial flows—such as trade malpractices and smuggling—siphon away tens of billions more. This is money that should be building roads in Lagos, equipping hospitals in Nairobi, or improving schools in Accra. Instead, it vanishes.”

He noted that Nigeria presents a cautionary example of both the scale of the problem and the urgent need for reform.

“In our public procurement processes—which account for a significant portion of government spending—Nigeria loses an estimated $18 billion annually to financial crimes, roughly 3.8% of our GDP. These leaks could fund countless social programmes.”

Abbas emphasised that budget leakages undermined the effectiveness of government programmes and must be stopped to ensure better outcomes for citizens.

“That is why we are increasing oversight hearings, audit inquiries, and strengthening anti-corruption legislation. Oversight is essential to ensure that limited resources are deployed for the public good,” he stated.

He also highlighted the lack of institutional capacity in many African parliaments, which hampers their ability to effectively scrutinise budgets and monitor public expenditure.

“Without access to high-quality fiscal data and independent economic analysis, legislators cannot adequately hold the executive accountable on complex macroeconomic issues such as debt sustainability and investment efficiency.”

This, he explained, is precisely the gap that Parliamentary Budget Offices (PBOs) are intended to fill.

Abbas stated that Nigeria was responding to these challenges through reforms aimed at strengthening the legislative ‘power of the purse’ and ensuring greater accountability in public finance.

“One of the most significant advancements is our effort to establish the National Assembly Budget and Research Office (NABRO) as an independent, non-partisan body to support our legislature.

“Let me assure this audience that the National Assembly is fully committed to NABRO’s realisation, full funding, and independence,” he further said.

He added that beyond NABRO, the Nigerian legislature was pursuing a broader fiscal governance agenda: “We are revising our Fiscal Responsibility and Finance laws to enhance budgetary discipline and transparency. We are also empowering our Public Accounts Committees to take decisive action on audit findings.”

Earlier in his remarks, Barrister Kamoru Ogunlana, clerk to the National Assembly (CNA), described the conference as a critical platform for peer learning and capacity building, aimed at institutionalising evidence-based public finance management.

“I encourage us all to use this conference not only as a platform for exchange, but as a springboard for innovation and renewed commitment to fiscal responsibility,” he said.

Representatives from 16 African countries participated in the conference, including Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Tanzania, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Liberia, The Gambia, Sierra Leone, Cape Verde, among others.


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JustMarkets Unveils Revamped IB Program with Flexible Commissions, Enhanced Partner Benefits

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JustMarkets, a global multi-asset broker, presented a new version of its Introducing Broker Program.

The upgraded IB structure is designed to give even higher returns, more partner transparency, commission flexibility, long-term growth, and clearer rules, adapted to the current macroeconomic environment.

Let’s see why this program is so groundbreaking and what benefits it offers to each partner.

Benefit #1. Income for 100% of client trading volume

The standout change is the shift from a fixed-per-lot payout to a percentage-based commission model, allowing partners to earn:

  • Up to 45% of the spread on Standard, Standard Cent accounts.

  • Up to 30% of the spread on Pro accounts.

Such a flexible system helps partners to get rewards for 100% of client trading volume, including scalping, intraday, and other short-term strategies often excluded under traditional fixed-lot programs.

Benefit #2. Higher spreads in times of market volatility

Under the percentage-based model, spreads can increase during periods of market volatility. As a result, commissions will increase, too. Regardless of what traders prefer: gold, oil, Forex, or digital assets, partners can benefit directly from market movement, which makes this program exceptionally profitable during active trading conditions.

Benefit #3. No longer bound by strict MTP rules

Perhaps the biggest frustrations for IBs have been the Minimum Trading Point requirement, which filters out a huge portion of eligible trades. JustMarkets has fully removed it, meaning every completed trade went straight to the partner earnings. This creates a better, more predictable revenue stream, especially valuable for high-frequency traders.

Benefit #4. More tools, transparency, and rewards

JustMarkets has also improved its Partner Area with real-time reporting tools, updated commission details, and full visibility into client spreads directly in the trading terminal. This change aimed to build more trustful broker-traders and broker-partners relationships by showing exactly how commissions are calculated.

To further support growth, the program offers loyalty rewards worth up to $500,000, including cash bonuses, luxury gadgets, and even cars. Nigerian partners also benefit from naira-friendly deposits and withdrawals, as well as access to marketing assets like banners, landing pages, and analytics.

A program built for long-term partnerships

JustMarkets is strengthening its commitment to partner success with a next-level IB program built for today’s market dynamics. This upgrade removes outdated requirements like the MTP, ensuring that every trade contributes to partner earnings. It also features a flexible, percentage-based commission system, offering up to 45% of the spread for all instruments, from gold and oil to Forex and digital assets.

According to Yasser Mansour, who is JustMarkets Senior Key Account Manager, all these changes were made with partners and traders in mind:

“We did everything to deliver a fairer, more adaptable, and more rewarding partnership model. Our team believes that traders and partners are the heart of every innovation and service we work on. The revamped IB program is a great tool for partners to get new opportunities, grow their businesses, and succeed in highly volatile markets. Our sincere aim is to provide the most transparent and rewarding partnership environment for partners and traders worldwide.”

To start using the JustMarkets Trading app, simply register and download it on your Android or iOS device.


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