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FXTM Analysis: IMF’s Warning Weighs Heavily on Sentiment in Nigeria

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The improving sentiment towards the Nigerian economy was dealt a heavy blow in March following reports of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) warning of a potential economic collapse if the nation failed to move ahead with reforms.

Although at the start of the year the economic outlook was elevated on repeated occasion with even the World Bank predicting an encouraging growth for 2017, the pending report from the IMF which may be seen as a warning could create some headwinds as the nation attempt to secure international loans worth $1.4 billion. While global markets have acknowledged that the largest economy in Africa is in the process of a key fundamental transformation that may exceed all expectations, there still remains a threat of internal and external risks creating obstacles.

 Some optimism still exits over the economic growth recovery plan for 2017-2020 which displayed an encouraging outlook for the nation.

The four-year plan was built around achieving a healthy economic growth and sustainable development while the nation embarked on its quest to breaking away from oil reliance. With there being a very strong focus on the nation enhancing both public and private sector efficiency while also boosting overall productivity, the growth forecast of 7% by 2020 could become a reality if the protocol is followed.

Nigeria must do all it can to achieve a stable macroeconomic environment such as invest heavily in agriculture and bolster infrastructure investments to generate sustainable economic growth in the longer term.

Focusing on Nigeria’s macro fundamentals, economic data this quarter has been mixed with inflation cooling down for the first time in 15 months in February. While inflation has started to somewhat stabilize, the high unemployment remains a cause for concern which may become another stumbling block to stable economic growth.

The mixed economic data and lingering uncertainty still enshrouding Nigeria have encouraged the Central Bank of Nigeria to maintain a passive stance in its recent policy meeting. Although the sentiment towards the nation continues to display some early signs of improvement, long-term fears over decelerating economic growth still weigh heavily on sentiment.

While the Central Bank of Nigeria has intervened to somewhat quell the foreign exchange scarcity dilemma, the multiple exchanges is a damaging policy that even the IMF has urged the government to rectify.

Speaking of foreign exchange policies, the Naira currently trades around 390 on the parallel exchange after the Central Bank of Nigeria injected a mammoth $1.138 billion in the forex markets to meet bids for forwards.

While the repeated injections of Dollars in the foreign exchange may buoy the Naira, questions should be raised over the sustainability of this method. With the multiple exchanges still a major cause for concern that needs to be seriously dealt with, expectations remain heightened over the CBN taking further steps to fully bridge the gap in a sustainable way, ultimately creating one equilibrium currency exchange.

Although the Naira may be poised to appreciate further in the short term as the CBN continues to pump Dollars into the markets, the possibility of a currency devaluation in the future could expose the Naira to downside shocks.

Outside of Nigeria, the cautious attitude the Federal Reserve has adopted coupled with the renewed Trump jitters has exposed the Greenback to major downside risks. A vulnerable Dollar may pose some benefits to emerging markets with Nigeria on the list.

With the growing concerns over Trump’s economic policies punishing the Dollar, emerging market currencies may receive a boost as concerns ease of capital outflows.

With Trump already facing headwinds in the early stages of his presidency in enacting his policies, the threat of the protectionism becoming a reality may subside consequently reducing some pressures on emerging markets.

Looking at oil, prices were exposed to downside risks this quarter with WTI Crude tumbling towards $47 after optimism diminished over the effectiveness of OPEC’s supply cut agreement. The consistent buildup seen in U.S Crude stockpiles swiftly revived the oversupply fears while concerns over some OPEC members not fully respecting compliance cuts weighed heavily on sentiment.

Oil prices could be instore for further punishment moving forward with the bullish effect of last year’s unexpected production cut wearing off amid the global glut anxieties. A drop in oil prices may enforce further downside pressures on Nigeria which currently remains reliant on oil exports for a chunk of its government’s revenue.

As we enter the second quarter of the trading year, investors will be paying very close attention to economic data and if the nation is able to secure the $1.4 billion worth of international loans. The blueprints to a recovery are already in place and now actions must be taken to propel the nation away from recessionary levels.

With the IMF warning Nigeria that its economy needs urgent reforms with the government changing its exchange policy, the CBN may be prompted to intervene in an effort to create some stability while improving the chances of securing the critical loan needed.

On the foreign exchange side, although the combination of repeated interventions from the CBN and Dollar weakness may elevate the Naira, the long-term trajectory still tilts to the downside, especially when factoring a potential devaluation.

 


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E-Financial

CBN Proposes 30-Member Mediation Panel for Loan Disputes

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released an exposure draft proposing the establishment of a 30-member Mediation and Dispute Resolution Panel (MDRP) aimed at strengthening consumer protection and boosting confidence in Nigeria’s financial system.

CBN Proposes 30-Member Mediation Panel for Loan Disputes

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According to a circular signed by Paul Oluikpe, acting director of the Development Finance Advisory Department of the CBN, the establishment of the MDRP, is in furtherance of efforts to strengthen the financial ecosystem, ensure compliance with extant legislation, and enhance the efficiency of financial intermediation.

The draft guidelines and modalities for the operation of the MDRP are in line with the Secured Transactions in Movable Assets (STMA) Act, 2017, which established a MDRP as the first recourse for mediation and settlement over any civil dispute which may arise between the creditor and the grantor in the course of implementing the Act.

The act also mandates the Governor of the Bank to issue guidelines that will set out the modalities and regulate the Panel’s functioning, among others. The circular further noted that the “MDRP is intended to provide a specialised, cost-effective platform for resolving disputes arising from creation, perfection and enforcement of security interests in movable assets.

“The key objective of the MDRP guidelines is to establish a clear and standardised procedure for managing STMA-related disputes, while ensuring transparency, fairness and efficiency to bolster confidence in the secured transactions in movable assets system.”

According to the draft guideline, the CBN will “appoint 30 persons from whom panels shall be constituted, with each panel comprising 3 members.

The members shall serve on a rotational basis for an initial term of four years.

“Upon satisfactory performance, determined through an evaluation by the CBN, members may be reappointed for an additional term of four years. The tenure of members shall not exceed two terms of four years each, which need not be consecutive.

“Members shall be professionals with a minimum of 10 years of relevant experience in any of law, banking, finance, mediation, arbitration, alternative dispute resolution, or financial regulation. Members shall be persons of proven integrity, professional competence and sound judgement.”


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NDIC Seeks Court Nods to Liquidate 89 Failed Banks

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) said that it has commenced the process of liquidating 89 closed Microfinance Banks (MFBs) and Primary Mortgage Banks (PMBs).

NDIC Seeks Court Nods to Liquidate 89 Failed Banks

This followed their successful acquisition by new owners under the Purchase and Assumption (P&A) resolution model executed by the Corporation.

The corporation disclosed this in a statement on Wednesday, signed by Hawwau Gambo, head of Communication and Public Affairs.

It explained that the affected institutions were part of the 179 MFBs and four PMBs whose licences were revoked by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on May 22 and 23, 2023.

According to the corporation, under the P&A arrangement, 89 new eligible institutions were subsequently licensed by the CBN to assume the assets and liabilities of the defunct banks.

It noted that the new banks had since commenced operations under different names.

“To legally conclude the liquidation process, the NDIC, in its capacity as liquidator, will file applications at various divisions of the Federal High Court for orders of dissolution of the closed banks and its discharge as liquidator,” the statement said.

NDIC added that the move was in line with provisions of its enabling Act and other relevant laws guiding bank resolution in the country.

The corporation said the exercise would ensure proper closure of the defunct institutions while safeguarding financial system stability.

It reiterated its commitment to protecting depositors and sustaining public confidence in the banking sector.

The affected banks were located across several states, including Lagos, Anambra, Oyo, Kaduna, Kano and the Federal Capital Territory.

 


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IMF Downgrades Nigeria’s GDP Outlook, Warns of Rising Risks

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Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow at 4.1 per cent in 2026 and strengthen slightly to 4.3 per cent in 2027, even as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict is clouding the global outlook.

The projections, contained in the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook released at the ongoing IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC, the United States, show a relatively stable trajectory for Nigeria despite rising external risks, particularly from energy market disruptions triggered by the war.

The IMF had earlier projected stronger growth of about 4.4 per cent in early January before the latest global shock, reflecting the impact of domestic reforms and improving macroeconomic conditions.

While Nigeria’s growth outlook remains steady, the IMF warned that countries like Nigeria face growing vulnerability from higher global energy prices, inflation pressures and tighter financial conditions.

The war, which has disrupted oil supply routes and pushed up fuel costs, is already feeding into domestic inflation and cost-of-living pressures.

Recent data show petrol and diesel prices have surged sharply since the conflict began, straining households and businesses.

Although higher crude prices may support government revenues, the broader macroeconomic impact remains mixed, with inflation and exchange rate pressures posing downside risks.

The IMF also cut global growth to 3.1 per cent in 2026, with only a modest recovery to 3.2 per cent in 2027 as the Middle East conflict disrupts trade and energy markets.

Emerging markets and developing economies, including Nigeria, are expected to grow at 3.9 per cent this year before recovering to 4.2 per cent in 2027, reflecting the uneven impact of the shock across regions.

Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.4 per cent in 2027, placing Nigeria slightly below the regional average but still among the stronger performers.

South Africa, the continent’s largest economy, continues to lag with growth forecast at one per cent in 2026, rising modestly to 1.3 per cent in 2027.

Among major economies, the U.S. is projected to grow by 2.3 per cent in 2026 before easing to 2.1 per cent in 2027, while China is projected to grow by 4.4 per cent and four per cent respectively.

India remains the fastest-growing major economy at 6.5 per cent through 2027, while the Euro Area continues to struggle with weak growth, particularly in Germany and France.

The IMF warned that many developing economies, particularly energy importers, remain vulnerable to rising costs and external shocks.

The IMF urged central banks to prioritise price stability, warning against easing policy prematurely in response to supply shocks. It stressed the need for clear communication and strong institutional independence.

On fiscal policy, the Fund cautioned against broad-based energy subsidies, describing them as costly and inefficient. It recommended a targeted and temporary support for vulnerable households, funded within existing budgets.

The IMF also warned against the use of trade restrictions to address external imbalances, noting that such measures tend to weaken output without resolving underlying issues. It called instead for coordinated global action to stabilise trade and restore energy supply chains.

 


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