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FXTM Analysis: IMF’s Warning Weighs Heavily on Sentiment in Nigeria

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The improving sentiment towards the Nigerian economy was dealt a heavy blow in March following reports of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) warning of a potential economic collapse if the nation failed to move ahead with reforms.

Although at the start of the year the economic outlook was elevated on repeated occasion with even the World Bank predicting an encouraging growth for 2017, the pending report from the IMF which may be seen as a warning could create some headwinds as the nation attempt to secure international loans worth $1.4 billion. While global markets have acknowledged that the largest economy in Africa is in the process of a key fundamental transformation that may exceed all expectations, there still remains a threat of internal and external risks creating obstacles.

 Some optimism still exits over the economic growth recovery plan for 2017-2020 which displayed an encouraging outlook for the nation.

The four-year plan was built around achieving a healthy economic growth and sustainable development while the nation embarked on its quest to breaking away from oil reliance. With there being a very strong focus on the nation enhancing both public and private sector efficiency while also boosting overall productivity, the growth forecast of 7% by 2020 could become a reality if the protocol is followed.

Nigeria must do all it can to achieve a stable macroeconomic environment such as invest heavily in agriculture and bolster infrastructure investments to generate sustainable economic growth in the longer term.

Focusing on Nigeria’s macro fundamentals, economic data this quarter has been mixed with inflation cooling down for the first time in 15 months in February. While inflation has started to somewhat stabilize, the high unemployment remains a cause for concern which may become another stumbling block to stable economic growth.

The mixed economic data and lingering uncertainty still enshrouding Nigeria have encouraged the Central Bank of Nigeria to maintain a passive stance in its recent policy meeting. Although the sentiment towards the nation continues to display some early signs of improvement, long-term fears over decelerating economic growth still weigh heavily on sentiment.

While the Central Bank of Nigeria has intervened to somewhat quell the foreign exchange scarcity dilemma, the multiple exchanges is a damaging policy that even the IMF has urged the government to rectify.

Speaking of foreign exchange policies, the Naira currently trades around 390 on the parallel exchange after the Central Bank of Nigeria injected a mammoth $1.138 billion in the forex markets to meet bids for forwards.

While the repeated injections of Dollars in the foreign exchange may buoy the Naira, questions should be raised over the sustainability of this method. With the multiple exchanges still a major cause for concern that needs to be seriously dealt with, expectations remain heightened over the CBN taking further steps to fully bridge the gap in a sustainable way, ultimately creating one equilibrium currency exchange.

Although the Naira may be poised to appreciate further in the short term as the CBN continues to pump Dollars into the markets, the possibility of a currency devaluation in the future could expose the Naira to downside shocks.

Outside of Nigeria, the cautious attitude the Federal Reserve has adopted coupled with the renewed Trump jitters has exposed the Greenback to major downside risks. A vulnerable Dollar may pose some benefits to emerging markets with Nigeria on the list.

With the growing concerns over Trump’s economic policies punishing the Dollar, emerging market currencies may receive a boost as concerns ease of capital outflows.

With Trump already facing headwinds in the early stages of his presidency in enacting his policies, the threat of the protectionism becoming a reality may subside consequently reducing some pressures on emerging markets.

Looking at oil, prices were exposed to downside risks this quarter with WTI Crude tumbling towards $47 after optimism diminished over the effectiveness of OPEC’s supply cut agreement. The consistent buildup seen in U.S Crude stockpiles swiftly revived the oversupply fears while concerns over some OPEC members not fully respecting compliance cuts weighed heavily on sentiment.

Oil prices could be instore for further punishment moving forward with the bullish effect of last year’s unexpected production cut wearing off amid the global glut anxieties. A drop in oil prices may enforce further downside pressures on Nigeria which currently remains reliant on oil exports for a chunk of its government’s revenue.

As we enter the second quarter of the trading year, investors will be paying very close attention to economic data and if the nation is able to secure the $1.4 billion worth of international loans. The blueprints to a recovery are already in place and now actions must be taken to propel the nation away from recessionary levels.

With the IMF warning Nigeria that its economy needs urgent reforms with the government changing its exchange policy, the CBN may be prompted to intervene in an effort to create some stability while improving the chances of securing the critical loan needed.

On the foreign exchange side, although the combination of repeated interventions from the CBN and Dollar weakness may elevate the Naira, the long-term trajectory still tilts to the downside, especially when factoring a potential devaluation.

 


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IGP Designates Banks National Security Asset, Orders Crackdown on Cyber Frauds

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Kayode Egbetokun, inspector-general of Police (IGP), has declared Nigeria’s banking industry a strategic national asset, ordering an immediate intelligence-led crackdown on cybercriminal networks, insider facilitators, and transnational financial crime syndicates threatening the stability of the financial system.

IGP Designates Banks National Security Asset, Orders Crackdown on Cyber Frauds

Kayode Egbetokun, inspector-general of Police (IGP),

Speaking at a strategic meeting with the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) and the Body of Bank Chief Executive Officers in Lagos, where he said the Nigeria Police Force was shifting from reactive policing to proactive dismantling of organised criminal structures targeting banks.

According to him, the financial sector remains central to national stability.

He said: “The Nigerian banking industry is not merely a driver of economic activity; it is a core component of our national stability architecture. The integrity, continuity, and resilience of the financial system are directly linked to public confidence, investor perception, and the credibility of Nigeria’s economic governance.”

In a major policy shift, Egbetokun announced that regular police officers would no longer be deployed for routine cash-in-transit escorts or non-essential VIP protective duties within the private sector.

He explained that the decision aligned with national policy direction and manpower optimisation within the Force, adding that the traditional model of conventional police deployment for banking sector protection was being reviewed and progressively restructured.

“This policy adjustment is not designed to diminish the security framework supporting the banking industry. Rather, it reflects a deliberate transition towards a more sustainable, professional, and institutionally governed model of security support,” he said.

Egbetokun warned that conventional risks such as armed robbery and cash-in-transit vulnerabilities, though still present, have been overtaken by more complex and technologically sophisticated threats.

“These threats are adaptive, technologically sophisticated, and often coordinated across borders. They include cyber-enabled fraud, identity compromise, insider facilitation, organised financial crime, and illicit financial flows,” he told the bankers.

The IGP stressed that disruptions to banking operations now carry international reputational consequences, citing global compliance standards set by the Financial Action Task Force FATF and Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) obligations.

He said: “In an era shaped by FATF standards, AML/CFT obligations, and heightened scrutiny of financial flows, the strength of a nation’s enforcement and security architecture is now directly relevant to investor confidence and market stability.”

The police noted that: “The speed and sophistication of cyber-enabled fraud illustrate the urgency of integration. Delayed reporting windows can render enforcement ineffective, while rapid escalation, evidence preservation, and coordinated response can significantly improve disruption, recovery, and prosecution outcomes.

“Modern financial crime operates at a pace that requires equally modern security coordination.”

Egbetokun disclosed that the Force had already intensified covert operations targeting kidnapping syndicates, illegal arms networks, and organised criminal enterprises whose activities threaten commercial stability.

He added that the Police were strengthening coordination with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC),  the Nigeria Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to ensure that criminal enterprises do not exploit gaps between enforcement, compliance, and oversight.

The IGP told the bankers that sustainable security cannot be achieved through episodic contact or fragmented interventions, calling for structured cooperation between law enforcement and financial institutions.

“Security is not merely the absence of crime; it is the presence of stability that enables productivity, investment, and growth. A secure banking environment supports savings mobilisation, credit expansion, financial inclusion, and the confidence of both domestic and international investors.

“When citizens trust financial institutions, participation in the formal economy increases. When investors perceive a stable internal security environment supported by credible enforcement, Nigeria becomes more bankable, more investable, and more competitive.

“The outcome of this meeting should not be limited to dialogue. It should produce structured liaison mechanisms between law enforcement and the banking sector, clear operational protocols for high-risk areas, joint capacity building, and lawful information-sharing.

“The Nigeria Police Force stands ready to work with the banking sector not merely as an enforcement institution, but as a strategic partner in safeguarding the integrity, stability, and international credibility of Nigeria’s financial architecture,” he said.

Earlier in his remarks, Oliver Alawuba, chairman of the Body of Bank Chief Executive Officers,  who acknowledged the Police boss for measures put in place to tackle insecurity in the country, highlighted the banking industry’s past support.

He said: “The Bankers’ Committee was responsible for the renovation of over 42 police stations that were destroyed during the EndSARS protests. We stepped in when police infrastructure was in ruins. Today, we expect that same urgency when our own infrastructure is under digital siege.”

Professor Pius Olarenwaju, president,  CIBN, on his part, painted a grim picture of an industry under silent assault, warning that the velocity of cyberattacks now outstrips the response capacity of traditional law enforcement.

“The banking sector plays a pivotal role in Nigeria’s economic development, and our critical functions can only flourish in a secure and stable environment. But we are fighting a war where the enemy no longer carries guns , they carry laptops and exploit system vulnerabilities in milliseconds,” he told the IGP.

Olarenwaju further stressed that the rapid digital transformation of financial services has created a security paradox.

“As we deepen financial inclusion and expand digital channels, we also expand the attack surface for cybercriminals. The same technology that empowers the unbanked also empowers fraudsters operating from jurisdictions where Nigerian law enforcement has no reach. This is the new reality, and we need the police to evolve with it,” he said.

Present at the occasion were Managing Directors and Chief Executive Officers of banks such as Union Bank, Signature Bank, Parallex Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Keystone Bank, Coronation Merchant Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank, United Bank for Africa, among others.

 

 


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Rashidat Adebisi Unveils Strategic Roadmap for Nigeria’s Insurance Sector under NIIRA 2025

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Following a landmark 21-year career in institutional finance, Rashidat Adebisi, the former Executive Director at AXA Mansard, has officially launched “The Re-Architecture Project.”

This strategic pivot aims to align Nigeria’s insurance and financial infrastructure with the federal government’s ambitious $1 trillion economy goal, positioning the sector as a critical driver of macro-economic stability.

As Nigeria navigates the complexities of the Nigeria Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA 2025), Adebisi identifies this moment as a “watershed” for the industry.

She argues that the path to a trillion-dollar economy requires more than just capital, it demands a total re-architecture of how financial systems interact with the informal economy, which currently accounts for over 60% of employment in Africa.

Macro-Economic Resilience as a National Imperative

The Re-Architecture Project reframes insurance from a transactional product into the “secret sauce” of a resilient economy.

Adebisi asserts that for Nigeria to achieve its macro-economic targets, the insurance industry must bridge the massive “protection gap,” as penetration currently remains below 3% across many African markets.

Insurance as an Economic Safety Net: “Insurance is the net that allows a nation to jump higher,” Adebisi stated.

She emphasizes that every decimal point in a financial model represents a business stabilized and a future secured, providing the essential foundation for macro-economic growth.

Infrastructure Beyond Capital: The project posits that Nigeria is not lacking capital but “invisible infrastructure”, specifically Trust, Access, and Regulatory Clarity.

NIIRA 2025: From Compliance to Competitive Advantage

Adebisi describes NIIRA 2025 as a vital structural reinforcement rather than regulatory friction. The Act’s focus on Capital Recalibration, Stronger Governance, and Consumer Protection is essential for building the institutional rigour required to support a $1 trillion GDP.

Recalibrating Foundations: The reform represents a necessary recalibration of the industry’s foundations while accelerating digital transformation.

Strategic Policy Fluency: “Those who view compliance as a burden will struggle; those who see it as a competitive advantage will thrive,” Adebisi noted, identifying policy fluency as a core leadership competency for the next decade.

Economic Visibility: Integrating the Informal Sector

A central pillar of the project is “Engineering Inclusive Ecosystems,” exemplified by the FileAm App. This initiative reimagines tax compliance as a digital utility for SMEs and informal entrepreneurs, moving them from economic invisibility into formal digital tax rails, insurance coverage, and credit ecosystems.

The Wealth Pipeline: By building digital identity and verifiable credentials, the project aims to turn compliance into credit history, and credit history into the capital access required for intergenerational wealth creation.

As a Financial Systems Architect, Adebisi’s blueprint for the next decade is governed by a singular core rule: Data-aware. Policy-conscious. Africa-focused.. The project calls on industry leaders and policymakers to move beyond incremental adoption toward designing interoperable ecosystems that can sustain the Africa of tomorrow.

“The future of finance in Africa will not be inherited. It will be architected,” Adebisi concluded. “It is our turn to build.”.

 

 


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NAICOM Targets Resilient, Global Competition Market in Insurance Sector Consolidation

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The National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) has unveiled a far-reaching reform agenda aimed at strengthening industry stability, improving consumer confidence, and positioning the sector to play more strategic role in national economic growth.

Speaking at the 2026 management retreat in Uyo, Olusegun Ayo Omosehin, commissioner for Insurance/CEO, NAICOM, described the initiative as a defining moment for the industry, stressing that the transformation drive is designed to modernise regulatory oversight, deepen market penetration, and build a more resilient and globally competitive insurance industry.

The renewed policy direction was unveiled at the Commission’s 2026 Management Retreat held in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, under the theme “Insurance Regulation: Reset, Reimagine, Refocus.”

Omosehin, described the retreat as a watershed moment in the Commission’s 29-year evolution, declaring that the regulator is embarking on a decisive transformation phase anchored on integrity, professionalism, accountability, and institutional unity.

He stressed that the reform agenda represents a deliberate shift away from outdated regulatory practices towards a modern, proactive, and impact-driven supervisory framework capable of strengthening market confidence and driving sustainable industry growth.

Omosehin explained that the retreat’s theme reflects a strategic call to action designed to reset legacy regulatory approaches, reimagine the untapped potential of Nigeria’s insurance market, and refocus regulatory strategies to deliver measurable economic value.

He further underscored the Commission’s strategic role in supporting the economic expansion blueprint of president Bola Ahmed Tinubu, noting that achieving Nigeria’s ambitious $1 trillion economic target requires a resilient, well-capitalized, and shock-resistant insurance sector capable of underwriting major risks, attracting investment inflows, and supporting long-term national development.

Central to the reform drive is NAICOM’s ongoing recapitalization programme, which the commissioner described as one of the most far-reaching regulatory interventions in the history of Nigeria’s insurance industry.

He clarified that the initiative goes far beyond capital injection, stressing that it is designed to strengthen insurers’ financial stability, enhance consumer protection, deepen insurance penetration across underserved segments, reinforce the industry’s capacity to withstand economic shocks, and rebuild public trust in insurance as a credible financial safety net.

He emphasized that the credibility of the exercise will be measured by its transparency, fairness, and professional execution, warning that the Commission will tolerate no ambiguity, compromise, or preferential treatment in the process.

Addressing management staff, Omosehin delivered a firm directive for internal discipline and cohesion, urging leaders within the Commission to uphold integrity as a guiding principle, professionalism as an operational compass, and transparency as a non-negotiable regulatory standard.

He stressed that NAICOM’s effectiveness depends on institutional collaboration, warning that departmental silos and bureaucratic rivalries undermine regulatory efficiency.

In a symbolic demonstration of commitment, management staff collectively pledged to uphold fairness, accountability, and global best practices in executing the recapitalization roadmap and safeguarding the future of the insurance sector.

The Commissioner also outlined key strategic priorities expected to reposition the industry, including strengthening regulatory oversight, ensuring disciplined execution of the recapitalization framework, deepening stakeholder engagement, expanding institutional capacity in risk-based supervision and data analytics, driving market development through digital innovation, strengthening organizational culture, and reinforcing policyholder protection mechanisms.

Omosehin also invoked an African proverb to emphasize the importance of unity and collective resolve, noting that sustainable transformation of the insurance sector can only be achieved through shared commitment among regulators, operators, and stakeholders.

He reaffirmed NAICOM’s determination to build an insurance industry that is resilient, globally competitive, trusted by policyholders, and fully aligned with Nigeria’s long-term economic transformation agenda.


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