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FXTM Analysis: Markets subdued following Trump vs Clinton Round 2

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The financial markets appear to have commenced trading for the new week under a mixed cloud, as both the constant headlines over the EU referendum outcome and the end of week slide in the price of oil weigh on investor sentiment.

It is also possible that the reason for a mixed start to weekly trading could be due to investors being pre-occupied with Round 2 of the Clinton vs Trump Presidential Debate taking place overnight, where the Mexican Peso has once again strengthened significantly as the expectations of Donald Trump eventually winning the US election continue to decline.

The overall market reaction to Round 2 of the Presidential Debate is far less volatile to what we experienced at the end of Round 1, although this could be because the race to who could possibly win the US election was far closer at that time.

Donald Trump appears to have now managed to alienate himself from his own political party, with the feeling in the air being that the comments released from a 2005 recording has gone some distance towards self-destructing his own presidential campaign.

Could the BoE attempt to stabilise the Pound this week?

Attention around the financial world is likely to remain on the British Pound over the week ahead, especially after the phenomenal “flash crash” that transpired on Friday morning.

It would not personally surprise me if the Bank of England (BoE) released some further public commentary on the recent events with the British Pound following Chancellor Philip Hammond responding to the events that took place last week by expressing that market turbulence is to be expected.

It has to be said that the UK Government will soon attempt to make the turning towards invoking Article 50 and begin to negotiate its exit from the European Union with its EU counterparts, therefore further depression in the Pound is to be expected.

The BoE find themselves in an unenviable position because the British Pound is trading at levels not seen in a generation, despite the United Kingdom remaining one of the strongest performing economies across the developed world.

While the chances of the BoE moving to stabilise the Pound through direct intervention are extremely slim at this stage, it is possible that the central bank will later indicate that the depressed Pound presents a risk to overshooting the 2% inflation target and this could then prevent further monetary easing from the central bank.

The GBPUSD is currently attempting to maintain itself at 1.24, but buying sentiment towards the currency is at such extremely weak levels that I can only expect further one-way traffic down the charts over the months to come.

WTI Oil unexpectedly back below $50
The value of WTI Oil has retraced back below $50 with technical traders taking advantage of the commodity failing to conclude trading last week above the psychological $51 level.

While the oil markets were encouraged to bounce superbly higher following the shocking news that OPEC came to a preliminary agreement to cut production output during their recent “informal” meeting, we have maintained a view since April that WTI needs to successfully close above $51 before we can begin talking about the possibility of a further correction.

Jameel Ahmad, FXTM VP of Market Research


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E-Financial

Providus Bank Fully Meets CBN Capital Requirement, Sets Record Straight

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Providus Bank Limited has dispelled media reports over its compliance with regulatory capital requirements, confirming that it has successfully met and exceeded the recapitalisation threshold set by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

In a statement, the bank clarified that under the CBN’s recapitalisation framework, regional commercial banks are mandated to maintain a minimum capital base of N50 billion, stating unequivocally that it achieved this benchmark as far back as January 2025 and has since strengthened its financial standing.

According to the bank, its current paid-up capital stands at N65 billion, significantly above the regulatory minimum, underscoring its resilience and commitment to sound financial management.

The bank noted that this strong capital position places it in good stead to support its growth strategy and continue delivering value to customers and stakeholders.

Providus Bank emphasied that any suggestion implying non-compliance with the CBN’s recapitalisation requirement was inaccurate and does not reflect its current regulatory status.

The bank reiterated its dedication to maintaining robust governance standards and aligning with all prudential guidelines set by the apex regulator.

It explained: Providus Bank Limited notes recent media reports regarding the recapitalisation status of certain banks and considers it important to provide factual clarification as it relates to the Bank. Under the CBN recapitalisation framework, regional commercial banks are required to maintain a minimum capital base of N50 billion.

“Providus Bank confirms that it had met its capital requirement since January 2025 and currently has a capital base of N65 billiom which is in excess of its capital requirement.

Accordingly, any suggestion that Providus Bank has not met the applicable recapitalisation threshold is not consistent with its current regulatory standing.”

The Olayemi Cardoso-led Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had, on March 28, 2024, announced a two-year bank recapitalisation exercise which commenced on April 1, 2024.

The 24-month timeline for compliance ends on March 31, 2026. The upward capital revision is expected to ensure that Nigerian banks have the capacity to take on bigger risks and stay afloat amid both domestic and external shocks.

Specifically, the recapitalisation exercise requires a minimum capital of N500 billion, N200 billion, and N50 billion for commercial banks with international, national, and regional licences, respectively.


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UBA UK, BII Sign Letter of Intent to Slash Africa’s $80Bn Trade Finance Gap

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United Bank for Africa (UK) Limited (“UBA UK”) and British International Investment plc (“BII”), the UK’s development finance institution and impact investor, today announced that they have signed a letter of intent to develop trade finance collaboration opportunities. The proposed initiative aims to expand access to trade and working capital facilities for businesses operating across Africa.

UBA UK, BII Sign Letter of Intent to Slash Africa’s $80bn Trade Finance Gap

L-r: West Africa Director and Head of Office Africa Coverage, BII West Africa, Benson Adenuga; Managing Director and Head of Africa, BII, Chris Chijiutomi; Lok Mishra, Chief Executive Officer, UBA UK, Loknath Mishra; Group Managing Director, United Bank for Africa (Plc) during the signing of letter of intent to develop trade finance collaboration opportunities.

Access to trade finance remains one of the most significant structural constraints on African trade. Businesses – particularly small and medium-sized enterprises – are frequently unable to secure letters of credit, guarantees, and supply chain finance on commercially viable terms, limiting their capacity to export and import competitively. This trade finance gap is estimated by the African Development Bank to be over USD 80 billion annually.

To help close this gap, UBA UK, the London subsidiary of UBA Group, Africa’s Global Bank, will leverage its deep relationships across the Group’s 20-country African network to originate and structure trade finance transactions. While BII, with a mandate to support productive, sustainable, and inclusive growth across Africa, can support transactions that might otherwise fall outside conventional commercial appetite.

Lok Mishra, Chief Executive Officer, UBA UK, said: “The signing of this letter with BII represents a landmark moment for UBA UK and for the UBA Group’s global ambitions. As the Group’s hub for Trade Operations, UBA UK is uniquely positioned to connect African businesses with the international financial system.

“Working alongside BII, we can extend that capability further — mobilising capital where it matters most and helping to close the trade finance gap that holds back so much African potential.”

Chris Chijiuitomi, Managing Director and Head of Africa, said: “British International Investment is committed to catalysing private sector growth across Africa, and trade finance is a critical enabler of that growth.

“We welcome the opportunity to collaborate with UBA Group, whose pan-African network and deep institutional relationships can help advance our ambition to expand access to trade and working capital finance, particularly in frontier markets.”

The announcement builds on growing momentum around intra-African trade facilitated by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which entered into force in 2021 and represents one of the world’s most ignificant trade integration initiatives.

Both institutions have identified the operationalisation of AfCFTA as a priority catalyst for a trade finance facility, with UBA UK’s network across major AfCFTA economies offering a basis for supporting businesses navigating the emerging continental market.

This also complements the UK Government’s broader engagement with African economic development, including commitments made at the UK-Africa Investment Summit, and reinforces the City of London’s role as a leading international finance centre for Africa-focused capital mobilisation.

Future cooperation remains subject to further assessment, due diligence and the completion of internal approvals by both parties.


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CBN Introduces Stricter BVN Rules to Curb Fraudulent Transactions

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has introduced stricter rules guiding the use and management of the Bank Verification Number (BVN) as part of efforts to reduce fraudulent transactions within the financial system.The revised framework, which takes effect from May 1, includes tighter controls on BVN enrolment, data access and customer information updates.

CBN Introduces Stricter BVN Rules to Curb Fraudulent Transactions

The apex bank said the measures are aimed at strengthening identity management, improving fraud monitoring and safeguarding the integrity of banking transactions.

Under the new guidelines, BVN enrolment is now restricted to individuals aged 18 and above, while customers will only be allowed to change the phone number linked to their BVN once.

The restriction is designed to curb identity manipulation often exploited by fraudsters through repeated updates of personal information.

The CBN also directed financial institutions to maintain a temporary watchlist for BVNs linked to suspicious transactions.

Affected BVNs may be flagged for up to 24 hours, during which customers are expected to verify or clarify flagged transactions before further action is taken.

In addition, access to BVN data has been tightened, with the apex bank retaining exclusive control over the database while granting access only to licensed financial institutions under defined conditions.

The move, according to the CBN, is expected to enhance data security and support a more resilient financial system as BVN enrolment continues to grow.


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