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FXTM Analysis: The Dollar Sinks while Euro Remains Supported

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on the IMF’s US growth forecast and the Euro.

The last remnants of the once phenomenal Trump rally were thoroughly crushed on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its growth forecast for the US economy amid uncertainty over White House policies.

Although US President Donald Trump has, on multiple occasions, stated that he will “make America great again” the IMF seems unconvinced as it cut growth forecast for the US economy to 2.1% in 2017 and 2018, against April’s projections of 2.3% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018.

With the world’s largest economy struggling to hit Trump’s 3% GDP target as it confronts issues ranging from an ageing population to low productivity, sentiment is likely to take a hit with the Dollar finding itself under renewed selling pressure.

Bearing in mind that the IMF’s growth projection for the US economy was revised due to flailing assumptions of Donald Trump moving forward with market shaking pro-growth policies, this is a big deal and it will be interesting to see how Fed policymakers react.

Dollar bullish investors who were in desperate need of inspiration to support the Greenback were left empty handed on Tuesday evening after Yellen maintained a safe distance from monetary policy at an event in London. Although she reiterated that “it will be appropriate to raise interest rates very gradually,” this was old news with nothing fresh brought to the table.

An interesting statement on Yellen’s part was how the banking reforms have currently made the financial system safe, with the next type of crisis that rattled the global markets in 2008 “hopefully not in our lifetimes.” While the comment continues to echo her overall optimism over the US and global economy, Dollar bears were unfazed with the Dollar Index sinking towards 96.20 as of writing.

GBPUSD pops above 1.2775
Sterling bulls were gifted an unexpected lifeline on Tuesday in the form of Nicola Surgeon putting the Scottish independence referendum bill on hold. With the delay of the proposed referendum reducing some political risk at home, the Pound was given room breath.
A weak Dollar played a role in the GBPUSD’s rebound as prices sprung towards 1.2850. While short-term technical bulls may have won the battle this week, the war still rages on with Brexit woes likely to limit gains in the medium to longer term.

Draghi inspires Euro bulls
Euro bulls were unstoppable during Tuesday’s trading session following the firmly hawkish comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi which boosted confidence over the health of the European Economy. With “deflationary forces being replaced by reflationary ones,” speculation has mounted over the central bank potentially tapering QE in the future.
Although the central bank president still highlighted that the inflation dynamics remain muted, there is optimism that the current factors hindering inflation are transitory and as such the Euro found further support.
A vulnerable US Dollar complimented the EURUSD’s upside with prices bursting above 1.1300. Technical traders could exploit the decisive break above 1.1300 to target 1.1450.

WTI Crude edges above $44
The fundamental reason why oil has remained depressed for such a prolonged period lies in the high global crude inventories. As long as the oversupply woes remain a dominant theme, the bearish sentiment towards oil should ensure sellers maintain control.
Although WTI Crude edged higher during Wednesday’s trading session, this technical bounce may provide a platform for bears to install renewed rounds of selling.
This remains a critical period for the oil markets especially when factoring in how the extended periods of low prices and US Shales resurgence could cause OPEC’s output cut deal to fall apart. A technical bounce on oil may be on the cards with traders observing how prices react to the daily 20 SMA which is coincidentally at $45.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold bulls were unrestrained during Wednesday’s trading session with prices clipping $1252 as the combination of Dollar weakness and risk aversion boosted the metal’s safe-haven allure. The sharp losses observed at the start of the week have almost been clawed back with bulls eyeing $1260.
With the ongoing uncertainty of Brexit, political risk in Washington and jitters from depressed oil accelerating the flight to safety, Gold is likely to remain supported moving forward. Technical traders will be paying attention to how the metal behaves above $1250. A daily close above $1250 could encourage a further incline towards $1260.


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E-Financial

Access Holdings Shareholders Approved to Raise N40bn Capital Through Private Placement

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Access Holdings Plc has received the approval of its shareholders to raise additional capital of up to N40 billion or such other amount or their equivalent in foreign currencies, via private placement.

The shareholders gave the approval as part of the special resolutions at Access Holdings Plc Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) held on Thursday December 18.

In a notice to the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), Access Holdings said the new ordinary shares created in connection with the private placement, will be allotted at a price of N20.25 to one or more investors in such tranches and on such terms and conditions as shall be determined by the Board.

Access Holdings Plc Board of Directors is authorised to consider, negotiate, approve, and finalise the list of potential private placement investors; determine the structure, valuation, modalities, and timeline for the private placement.

The Board was also authorised to consider, negotiate, approve and finalise the list of potential private placement investors; determine the structure, valuation, modalities and timeline for the private placement.

The shareholders also approved for the issued share capital of Access Holdings Plc to be increased from N26 658 billion to N27.646 billion by the creation and addition of 1,975,308,641 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each ranking pari-passu with the existing ordinary shares of the Company.


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Customs Slam 3 Percent Surcharge on Banks over Delayed Revenue Remittance

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Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has imposed a three per cent surcharge on Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) over delays in the remittance of Customs revenue by designated banks.

Customs Slam 3 Percent Surcharge on Banks over Delayed Revenue Remittance

The development was disclosed by Abdullahi Maiwada, national public relations officer of the Service,  in a statement titled “Nigeria Customs Service Commences Enforcement of Penalties Against Designated Banks for Delayed Remittance of Customs Revenue.”

The agency stated that delays in remitting collected Customs revenue constitute a breach of remittance obligations and negatively impact the efficiency, transparency and integrity of government revenue administration.

Maiwada explained that any Designated Bank that fails to remit collected Customs revenue within the prescribed period will be liable to penalty interest, adding that affected banks will receive formal notifications detailing the delayed amount, applicable penalty and the timeline for settlement.

“The NCS has noted instances of delayed remittance of Customs revenue by some Designated Banks following reconciliation of collections processed through the B’Odogwu platform. Such delays constitute a breach of remittance obligations and negatively impact the efficiency, transparency and integrity of government revenue administration.

“In line with the provisions of the Service Level Agreement (SLA) executed between the Nigeria Customs Service and Designated Banks, the Service hereby notifies stakeholders of the commencement of enforcement actions against banks found to be in default of agreed remittance timelines.

“Accordingly, any Designated Bank that fails to remit collected Customs revenue within the prescribed period shall be liable to penalty interest calculated at three per cent above the prevailing Nigerian Interbank Offered Rate for the duration of the delay. Affected banks will receive formal notifications indicating the delayed amount, applicable penalty and the timeline for settlement.”

Maiwada further advised Designated Banks to strengthen their internal controls, ensure strict adherence to remittance timelines and comply fully with the provisions of the SLA.

He reiterated that the Service remains committed to enforcing accountability, safeguarding government revenue and promoting a transparent and predictable financial system in support of national economic development.

“The Service further notes that persistent or repeated non-compliance with the terms of the SLA may attract additional sanctions, including regulatory and administrative measures, as provided under the Agreement and relevant laws guiding Customs revenue collection.

“The NCS reiterates that prompt, accurate and complete remittance of Customs revenue is a fundamental obligation of Designated Banks. Any payment of collected revenue into unauthorised accounts, whether deliberate or erroneous, will be treated as a serious violation and addressed in accordance with the SLA and applicable legal frameworks.

“Designated Banks are therefore advised to strengthen internal controls, ensure strict adherence to remittance timelines and comply fully with the provisions of the SLA. The Service remains committed to enforcing accountability, safeguarding government revenue and promoting a transparent and predictable financial system in support of national economic development,” he added.


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World Bank to Approve $500m Loan for Nigeria Today

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The World Bank is set to approve a $500m loan to Nigeria on Friday (today) as part of efforts to expand access to finance for micro, small and medium enterprises across the country, according to Punch.

World Bank to Approve $500m Loan for Nigeria Today

The proposed facility, titled the Fostering Inclusive Finance for MSMEs in Nigeria (FINCLUDE) Project, aims to mobilise private capital and promote innovative financial products for small businesses, according to information obtained from the World Bank.

Negotiations on the loan are ongoing, and approval by the World Bank Group’s board is expected on Friday.

The approval, expected on December 19, 2025, will see the World Bank commit $500m to the project out of an estimated total cost of $2.39bn.

Of the World Bank financing, $400m will be provided by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, while $100m will come from the International Development Association.

The Federal Government will be the borrower under the arrangement, with the Development Bank of Nigeria serving as the implementing agency with overall responsibility for managing the funds.

The remaining $1.89bn required for the project is expected to be provided by commercial lenders as unguaranteed financing.

According to the World Bank, the FINCLUDE project will leverage the platforms of the Development Bank of Nigeria and its subsidiary, Impact Credit Guarantee Limited, to deepen credit access for MSMEs.

“The proposed FINCLUDE Project leverages the platforms of the Development Bank of Nigeria and its subsidiary, the Impact Credit Guarantee Limited, to drive inclusive MSME finance,” a document from the World Bank read.

“Through these catalytic institutions, the project will deploy a package of complementary, inclusive, and innovative instruments tailored to the diverse needs of MSMEs in Nigeria.”

The World Bank described DBN as “a partner well known to the World Bank with high implementation capacity and a proven track record in designing and executing complex, innovative projects,” noting that its role would be central to the success of the intervention.

The project is structured around three main components. These include the provision of inclusive and innovative MSME finance products, the de-risking and mobilisation of private capital through partial credit guarantees, and technical assistance aimed at modernising and digitising Nigeria’s MSME finance ecosystem.

Under the first component, the World Bank said the project would provide Tier 2 subordinated capital to eligible financial institutions and support the establishment of an MSME investment fund to deliver equity and long-term debt financing to small businesses.

The bank said this approach would help “crowd-in private capital, test market innovations and promote financial sustainability” within the MSME segment.

Also, the project will offer targeted technical assistance to strengthen the capacity of financial institutions, improve regulatory oversight and modernise the MSME finance value chain linking DBN, lenders and entrepreneurs.

In its appraisal report, the World Bank highlighted Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms, describing the country as being “in a critical transition.”

It noted that the removal of fuel and foreign exchange subsidies, alongside the unification of exchange rates, had begun to stabilise the economy and restore investor confidence.

“These reforms have improved fiscal space, enhanced FX liquidity, and eased inflation to 18 per cent as of September 2025,” the report stated, adding that growth prospects were strengthening, with the International Monetary Fund projecting 3.9 per cent real GDP growth in 2025.

Despite these improvements, the World Bank warned that access to finance remained uneven, particularly for MSMEs, women and the agriculture sector.

It noted that agriculture accounted for just over five per cent of total bank credit in 2024, while high interest rates and shallow credit penetration continued to constrain lending to smaller enterprises.


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