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FXTM Analysis: The Dollar Sinks while Euro Remains Supported

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on the IMF’s US growth forecast and the Euro.

The last remnants of the once phenomenal Trump rally were thoroughly crushed on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its growth forecast for the US economy amid uncertainty over White House policies.

Although US President Donald Trump has, on multiple occasions, stated that he will “make America great again” the IMF seems unconvinced as it cut growth forecast for the US economy to 2.1% in 2017 and 2018, against April’s projections of 2.3% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018.

With the world’s largest economy struggling to hit Trump’s 3% GDP target as it confronts issues ranging from an ageing population to low productivity, sentiment is likely to take a hit with the Dollar finding itself under renewed selling pressure.

Bearing in mind that the IMF’s growth projection for the US economy was revised due to flailing assumptions of Donald Trump moving forward with market shaking pro-growth policies, this is a big deal and it will be interesting to see how Fed policymakers react.

Dollar bullish investors who were in desperate need of inspiration to support the Greenback were left empty handed on Tuesday evening after Yellen maintained a safe distance from monetary policy at an event in London. Although she reiterated that “it will be appropriate to raise interest rates very gradually,” this was old news with nothing fresh brought to the table.

An interesting statement on Yellen’s part was how the banking reforms have currently made the financial system safe, with the next type of crisis that rattled the global markets in 2008 “hopefully not in our lifetimes.” While the comment continues to echo her overall optimism over the US and global economy, Dollar bears were unfazed with the Dollar Index sinking towards 96.20 as of writing.

GBPUSD pops above 1.2775
Sterling bulls were gifted an unexpected lifeline on Tuesday in the form of Nicola Surgeon putting the Scottish independence referendum bill on hold. With the delay of the proposed referendum reducing some political risk at home, the Pound was given room breath.
A weak Dollar played a role in the GBPUSD’s rebound as prices sprung towards 1.2850. While short-term technical bulls may have won the battle this week, the war still rages on with Brexit woes likely to limit gains in the medium to longer term.

Draghi inspires Euro bulls
Euro bulls were unstoppable during Tuesday’s trading session following the firmly hawkish comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi which boosted confidence over the health of the European Economy. With “deflationary forces being replaced by reflationary ones,” speculation has mounted over the central bank potentially tapering QE in the future.
Although the central bank president still highlighted that the inflation dynamics remain muted, there is optimism that the current factors hindering inflation are transitory and as such the Euro found further support.
A vulnerable US Dollar complimented the EURUSD’s upside with prices bursting above 1.1300. Technical traders could exploit the decisive break above 1.1300 to target 1.1450.

WTI Crude edges above $44
The fundamental reason why oil has remained depressed for such a prolonged period lies in the high global crude inventories. As long as the oversupply woes remain a dominant theme, the bearish sentiment towards oil should ensure sellers maintain control.
Although WTI Crude edged higher during Wednesday’s trading session, this technical bounce may provide a platform for bears to install renewed rounds of selling.
This remains a critical period for the oil markets especially when factoring in how the extended periods of low prices and US Shales resurgence could cause OPEC’s output cut deal to fall apart. A technical bounce on oil may be on the cards with traders observing how prices react to the daily 20 SMA which is coincidentally at $45.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold bulls were unrestrained during Wednesday’s trading session with prices clipping $1252 as the combination of Dollar weakness and risk aversion boosted the metal’s safe-haven allure. The sharp losses observed at the start of the week have almost been clawed back with bulls eyeing $1260.
With the ongoing uncertainty of Brexit, political risk in Washington and jitters from depressed oil accelerating the flight to safety, Gold is likely to remain supported moving forward. Technical traders will be paying attention to how the metal behaves above $1250. A daily close above $1250 could encourage a further incline towards $1260.


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Lawyers Sue CBN over One-Time BVN Phone Number Change

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Incorporated Trustees of the Data Privacy Lawyers Association (DPLA), a group of legal experts and data privacy advocates and Etisang Solomon have filed a fundamental rights enforcement suit at the Federal High Court, Kaduna Judicial Division, against the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Lawyers Sue CBN over One-Time BVN Phone Number Change

The suit, officially stamped by the court on April 8, 2026, seeks to nullify a CBN circular that restricts bank customers to a single lifetime amendment of phone numbers linked to their Bank Verification Numbers (BVN).

The circular titled “Addendum to the Revised Regulatory Framework for Bank Verification Number (BVN) Operations and Watchlist for the Nigerian Banking Industry,” was issued by the apex bank on March 12, 2026.

According to the provisions of clause (c) in that document, any amendment to phone numbers linked to a BVN shall be allowed only once, with the new provisions set to take effect from May 1, 2026.

Reacting to the CBN directive, legal experts and data privacy advocates argue that this timeline and the restriction itself violate multiple provisions of the 1999 constitution and the Nigeria Data Protection Act (NDPA).

They are seeking nine reliefs from the court, including declarations that the circular violates section 37 of the constitution regarding the right to privacy, Section 24(1)(e) and 34(1)(c) of the NDPA, along with orders nullifying the impugned clause, a perpetual injunction restraining the CBN from enforcing it, and a mandamus directing the CBN to review and amend the circular.

In an affidavit sworn on behalf of the applicants, Christopher Yange highlighted the practical dangers of the policy, noting that telecommunications providers frequently recycle, deactivate, or reassign numbers that have been lost or stolen.

He cited a report from the Foundation for Investigative Journalism (FIJ) to demonstrate that phone numbers are not static assets.

Furthermore, the legal experts and data privacy advocates also contend that if a customer’s number is compromised after their single permitted update, they would be permanently barred from correcting their financial records, leaving sensitive data such as transaction alerts and One-Time Passwords (OTPs) vulnerable to interception by third parties.

Olumide Babalola, Emmanuel Okpara, and Frank Ijege of Olumide Babalola LP, applicants’ counsel, in a detailed written address spanning over 12 pages, framed the case around three core legal issues.

They argued on the first issue that a phone number associated with a BVN transcends basic administrative data, serving instead as a vital conduit for financial security, including transaction notifications, OTPs, and authentication protocols.

To bolster this claim, they pointed to several legal precedents.

Among these was the 2021 Court of Appeal ruling in Digital Rights Lawyers Initiative v National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), which affirmed that constitutional privacy rights encompass the safeguarding of personal data.

Additionally, they referenced the 2025 decision in Omotayo versus Airtel Networks, where the Court of Appeal reiterated that the privacy of telecommunications and call records is protected under the constitution.

On the second issue,they  argued that by permitting only a single update, the CBN essentially grants itself a permanent power of veto over a citizen’s right to correct their data, a move that directly contradicts the clear language of the law.

To support this claim, they referenced the 2024 High Court of Lagos ruling in Rebecca Temitope Bonje versus Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, which upheld the legal requirement for data precision and the right to rectification as mandated by the NDPA.

Concerning the third legal point, the applicants argued that the single-amendment restriction serves as a rigid, all-encompassing mandate.

They noted that it fails to consider valid circumstances like the loss or physical damage of a SIM card, switching service providers, the recycling of phone numbers, or moving to a new line for personal safety.

The legal team maintained that the apex bank could achieve its anti-fraud objectives through less restrictive measures, such as advanced identity checks, multi-factor authentication, or short-term account freezes for security verification, without compromising the fundamental rights of bank customers.

The affidavit further claims the CBN’s directive lacks good faith, citing a lack of public evidence or regulatory impact assessments.

It also highlights a failure to consult stakeholders across the banking, telecom, and data protection sectors, the absence of a structured appeal process for device loss or errors, and a general lack of alignment with the NDPA.

The lawsuit, pursues several key reliefs: a declaration that the circular is unconstitutional and breaches the NDPA; the nullification of clause (c) of the addendum; and a perpetual injunction against the phone number amendment limit.

Furthermore, it seeks a mandamus to compel the CBN to revise the circular in line with constitutional and data accuracy standards, alongside an order for the bank to implement a flexible and verifiable update framework.

 


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Finance Minister Did not Admit Errors in New Tax Laws – PFPTRC

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Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee (PFPTRC) has dismissed reports claiming that Taiwo Oyedele, minister of State for Finance, admitted errors in Nigeria’s new tax laws.

Finance Minister Did not Admit Errors in New Tax Laws – PFPTRC

Taiwo Oyedele, minister of State for Finance,

In a statement posted on Sunday via Oyedele’s X handle, the committee described the reports as “misleading” and a misrepresentation of the minister’s comments.

“Our attention has been drawn to misleading media reports claiming that the Honourable Minister of State for Finance, Mr. Taiwo Oyedele has ‘finally admitted errors in the new tax laws.’

“These publications misrepresent the Minister’s statements, falsely alleging that he urged Nigerians to await the outcome of a ‘legislative probe’, a process that has long been concluded and the gazetted copies certified by the National Assembly published since early January 2026,” the statement said.

It warned that such narratives could distort public understanding of the reforms.

The committee said the minister, while speaking at a fireside chat during the Nigerian Bar Association Section on Legal Practice conference in Lagos, highlighted early gains from the tax reforms.

According to the statement, these include an increase in the number of informal businesses seeking registration with the Corporate Affairs Commission, as well as a rise in the number of registered taxpayers from about 10 million to over 100 million nationwide.

It attributed the outcomes to provisions in the new tax laws, including exemptions for small companies and low-income earners, as well as tax relief on essential goods and services.

“These impressive results stem from the robust design and progressive nature of the new laws,” the committee said, listing measures such as exemptions on food, education, healthcare, transportation and rent, as well as the introduction of a Tax Ombud to protect taxpayers’ rights.

The committee noted that Oyedele also acknowledged that no law is perfect and emphasised the need for continuous stakeholder engagement to address any gaps through future amendments.

“He, however, emphasized that no law is perfect. Therefore, ongoing stakeholder engagement is essential to identify and address any errors or gaps for appropriate legislative updates through Finance Bills as part of a continuous improvement process,” the statement said.

It urged the public to disregard what it described as sensational reports and rely on official sources for accurate information.

“We urge members of the public to disregard sensational headlines and twisted narratives and rely exclusively on official sources and credible media organisations for accurate information regarding the tax reform and other government policies,” the committee added.

 

 


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Quest Merchant Bank Unveils New Brand Identity, Signalling Next Phase of Strategic Growth

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Quest Merchant Bank Limited has unveiled its new brand identity, marking a significant step in the Bank’s ongoing evolution following its recent name change.

The refreshed identity reflects the Bank’s strategic direction as it deepens its role as a trusted partner to institutions and investors, providing insight-driven financial solutions and a disciplined approach to supporting long-term value creation.

With a strong legacy of execution and a deep understanding of key sectors, the Bank continues to differentiate itself through measured decision-making, strong risk management, and the ability to navigate increasingly complex market environments. The new identity brings these qualities into sharper focus, while signalling a renewed emphasis on growth, innovation, and relevance in a changing financial landscape.

Quest Merchant Bank remains focused on supporting clients across their growth journey, helping to unlock opportunities, structure transactions effectively, and provide the clarity required to make confident financial decisions in dynamic conditions.

Commenting on the development, the Ag. Managing Director/CEO, Afolabi Olorode, stated: “Our new brand identity represents an important step in our journey as Quest Merchant Bank. It reflects both who we are and where we are headed, an institution grounded in experience yet firmly focused on the future. As we continue to evolve, our priority remains to provide our clients with the clarity, confidence, and strategic support they need to achieve their long-term objectives.”

The refreshed identity will be progressively reflected across the Bank’s touchpoints, aligning its visual presence with its strategic ambition and ongoing investments in innovation, digital transformation, and service delivery.

Quest Merchant Bank remains focused on reinforcing its position as a leading merchant bank, trusted by institutions and investors to unlock value and deliver sustainable financial outcomes.


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