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FXTM Analysis: Time to Focus On OPEC Now That France is ‘Out of Sight’

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Jameel Ahmad
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FXTM Vice President of Market Research, Jameel Ahmad comments on the upcoming OPEC meeting.

Investors have arrived in full force to exploit the opportunity to sell the Euro at its highest level since November 2016, with the EURUSD now appearing at risk to dropping back below 1.09 after briefly climbing above 1.10 when the markets opened for the week following confirmation of Macron becoming the new President of France.

While the lifeline of the Euro relief rally appears to be short-lived, I would go as far as to say that the Euro is heavily oversold at these levels and this is not linked to the headlines that Europe has defeated populism.

Although political headlines are still overshadowing economic news when it comes to the global market theme of 2017, there is an improved economic sentiment around Europe that has been building recently as a result of significantly improved data.

Perhaps the reason for the heavy selling pressure on the Euro at present is due to expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will leave monetary policy accommodative, despite the stronger data being seen around Europe.

Time to shift focus to upcoming OPEC meeting?
Now that the French election is out of the way, investors should highlight May 25 in their calendar, because this is when the next OPEC meeting is scheduled in Vienna. Traders should expect and be prepared for shifts in volatility in both directions when it comes to the price of Oil, as the markets speculate over what the outcome of the meeting could possibly be.

I expect for producing nations to publicly talk up the prospects of an extension to the current production cut agreement made late in 2016, but this doesn’t impact the underlying factor that the real fight OPEC has to deal with is a battle with US Shale production.

There has been an obvious correlation that inventories from Shale production in the US have improved in recent months, which is surely going to be weighing heavily in the minds of all the Oil ministers from both OPEC and non-members when they sit at the table in a couple of weeks.

As always investors should prepare for the unexpected when it comes to OPEC meetings with recent history in mind that there have been unexpected surprises from past meetings. With that in mind there are at least two possible risk scenarios that investors should consider in the lead up to the May 25 event:

While the organisation is currently committed to reducing output, that agreement expires next month. With the markets believing that the current collaboration will need to be extended, there is a risk that the markets will be caught off-guard with a decision to delay it, in order to prevent further US Shale production from reaching the landscape.

Should OPEC and Non-OPEC agree to an increase in production for the second half of the year, a volume war could be on the cards with this providing sellers with heavy encouragement to begin pricing in the resumption of heavy selling momentum and a possible return to the historic lows for Oil.

The other risk scenario that investors would be mindful to factor into consideration is that there is an agreement to throw in the towel and submit to extending not only the duration of the current agreement, but also cutting further output.

Although this would be seen as OPEC declaring Shale victorious in the production war and would also further weaken the credibility of oil producers who, until just a few years ago, were in full control of global oil production, it would most probably achieve a stronger rebound in the price of Oil.

Basically what this could come down to is whether OPEC and Non-OPEC members are willing to lose face by accepting defeat to Shale in return for a further boost in revenue, or are they committed to prolonging their participation in this ongoing production war with Shale?

GBPUSD not ready to touch 1.30 yet?
The Pound is trading in a very narrow range against the Dollar at the beginning of the week as the spotlight shines on the French election result, and it looks like the British Pound is shying away from touching 1.30 for the first time since September 2016.

While the Pound benefitted from some impressive PMI results last week, it is possible that investors will shift their attention to the Bank of England (BoE) and the likelihood of inflation risks being highlighted when the latest inflation report is delivered this Thursday.

 

 

 


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E-Financial

CBN Proposes 30-Member Mediation Panel for Loan Disputes

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released an exposure draft proposing the establishment of a 30-member Mediation and Dispute Resolution Panel (MDRP) aimed at strengthening consumer protection and boosting confidence in Nigeria’s financial system.

CBN Proposes 30-Member Mediation Panel for Loan Disputes

Pic credit….aequitasjuris.com

According to a circular signed by Paul Oluikpe, acting director of the Development Finance Advisory Department of the CBN, the establishment of the MDRP, is in furtherance of efforts to strengthen the financial ecosystem, ensure compliance with extant legislation, and enhance the efficiency of financial intermediation.

The draft guidelines and modalities for the operation of the MDRP are in line with the Secured Transactions in Movable Assets (STMA) Act, 2017, which established a MDRP as the first recourse for mediation and settlement over any civil dispute which may arise between the creditor and the grantor in the course of implementing the Act.

The act also mandates the Governor of the Bank to issue guidelines that will set out the modalities and regulate the Panel’s functioning, among others. The circular further noted that the “MDRP is intended to provide a specialised, cost-effective platform for resolving disputes arising from creation, perfection and enforcement of security interests in movable assets.

“The key objective of the MDRP guidelines is to establish a clear and standardised procedure for managing STMA-related disputes, while ensuring transparency, fairness and efficiency to bolster confidence in the secured transactions in movable assets system.”

According to the draft guideline, the CBN will “appoint 30 persons from whom panels shall be constituted, with each panel comprising 3 members.

The members shall serve on a rotational basis for an initial term of four years.

“Upon satisfactory performance, determined through an evaluation by the CBN, members may be reappointed for an additional term of four years. The tenure of members shall not exceed two terms of four years each, which need not be consecutive.

“Members shall be professionals with a minimum of 10 years of relevant experience in any of law, banking, finance, mediation, arbitration, alternative dispute resolution, or financial regulation. Members shall be persons of proven integrity, professional competence and sound judgement.”


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NDIC Seeks Court Nods to Liquidate 89 Failed Banks

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) said that it has commenced the process of liquidating 89 closed Microfinance Banks (MFBs) and Primary Mortgage Banks (PMBs).

NDIC Seeks Court Nods to Liquidate 89 Failed Banks

This followed their successful acquisition by new owners under the Purchase and Assumption (P&A) resolution model executed by the Corporation.

The corporation disclosed this in a statement on Wednesday, signed by Hawwau Gambo, head of Communication and Public Affairs.

It explained that the affected institutions were part of the 179 MFBs and four PMBs whose licences were revoked by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on May 22 and 23, 2023.

According to the corporation, under the P&A arrangement, 89 new eligible institutions were subsequently licensed by the CBN to assume the assets and liabilities of the defunct banks.

It noted that the new banks had since commenced operations under different names.

“To legally conclude the liquidation process, the NDIC, in its capacity as liquidator, will file applications at various divisions of the Federal High Court for orders of dissolution of the closed banks and its discharge as liquidator,” the statement said.

NDIC added that the move was in line with provisions of its enabling Act and other relevant laws guiding bank resolution in the country.

The corporation said the exercise would ensure proper closure of the defunct institutions while safeguarding financial system stability.

It reiterated its commitment to protecting depositors and sustaining public confidence in the banking sector.

The affected banks were located across several states, including Lagos, Anambra, Oyo, Kaduna, Kano and the Federal Capital Territory.

 


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IMF Downgrades Nigeria’s GDP Outlook, Warns of Rising Risks

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Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow at 4.1 per cent in 2026 and strengthen slightly to 4.3 per cent in 2027, even as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict is clouding the global outlook.

The projections, contained in the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook released at the ongoing IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC, the United States, show a relatively stable trajectory for Nigeria despite rising external risks, particularly from energy market disruptions triggered by the war.

The IMF had earlier projected stronger growth of about 4.4 per cent in early January before the latest global shock, reflecting the impact of domestic reforms and improving macroeconomic conditions.

While Nigeria’s growth outlook remains steady, the IMF warned that countries like Nigeria face growing vulnerability from higher global energy prices, inflation pressures and tighter financial conditions.

The war, which has disrupted oil supply routes and pushed up fuel costs, is already feeding into domestic inflation and cost-of-living pressures.

Recent data show petrol and diesel prices have surged sharply since the conflict began, straining households and businesses.

Although higher crude prices may support government revenues, the broader macroeconomic impact remains mixed, with inflation and exchange rate pressures posing downside risks.

The IMF also cut global growth to 3.1 per cent in 2026, with only a modest recovery to 3.2 per cent in 2027 as the Middle East conflict disrupts trade and energy markets.

Emerging markets and developing economies, including Nigeria, are expected to grow at 3.9 per cent this year before recovering to 4.2 per cent in 2027, reflecting the uneven impact of the shock across regions.

Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.4 per cent in 2027, placing Nigeria slightly below the regional average but still among the stronger performers.

South Africa, the continent’s largest economy, continues to lag with growth forecast at one per cent in 2026, rising modestly to 1.3 per cent in 2027.

Among major economies, the U.S. is projected to grow by 2.3 per cent in 2026 before easing to 2.1 per cent in 2027, while China is projected to grow by 4.4 per cent and four per cent respectively.

India remains the fastest-growing major economy at 6.5 per cent through 2027, while the Euro Area continues to struggle with weak growth, particularly in Germany and France.

The IMF warned that many developing economies, particularly energy importers, remain vulnerable to rising costs and external shocks.

The IMF urged central banks to prioritise price stability, warning against easing policy prematurely in response to supply shocks. It stressed the need for clear communication and strong institutional independence.

On fiscal policy, the Fund cautioned against broad-based energy subsidies, describing them as costly and inefficient. It recommended a targeted and temporary support for vulnerable households, funded within existing budgets.

The IMF also warned against the use of trade restrictions to address external imbalances, noting that such measures tend to weaken output without resolving underlying issues. It called instead for coordinated global action to stabilise trade and restore energy supply chains.

 


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