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FXTM Analysis: Time to Focus On OPEC Now That France is ‘Out of Sight’

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Jameel Ahmad
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FXTM Vice President of Market Research, Jameel Ahmad comments on the upcoming OPEC meeting.

Investors have arrived in full force to exploit the opportunity to sell the Euro at its highest level since November 2016, with the EURUSD now appearing at risk to dropping back below 1.09 after briefly climbing above 1.10 when the markets opened for the week following confirmation of Macron becoming the new President of France.

While the lifeline of the Euro relief rally appears to be short-lived, I would go as far as to say that the Euro is heavily oversold at these levels and this is not linked to the headlines that Europe has defeated populism.

Although political headlines are still overshadowing economic news when it comes to the global market theme of 2017, there is an improved economic sentiment around Europe that has been building recently as a result of significantly improved data.

Perhaps the reason for the heavy selling pressure on the Euro at present is due to expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will leave monetary policy accommodative, despite the stronger data being seen around Europe.

Time to shift focus to upcoming OPEC meeting?
Now that the French election is out of the way, investors should highlight May 25 in their calendar, because this is when the next OPEC meeting is scheduled in Vienna. Traders should expect and be prepared for shifts in volatility in both directions when it comes to the price of Oil, as the markets speculate over what the outcome of the meeting could possibly be.

I expect for producing nations to publicly talk up the prospects of an extension to the current production cut agreement made late in 2016, but this doesn’t impact the underlying factor that the real fight OPEC has to deal with is a battle with US Shale production.

There has been an obvious correlation that inventories from Shale production in the US have improved in recent months, which is surely going to be weighing heavily in the minds of all the Oil ministers from both OPEC and non-members when they sit at the table in a couple of weeks.

As always investors should prepare for the unexpected when it comes to OPEC meetings with recent history in mind that there have been unexpected surprises from past meetings. With that in mind there are at least two possible risk scenarios that investors should consider in the lead up to the May 25 event:

While the organisation is currently committed to reducing output, that agreement expires next month. With the markets believing that the current collaboration will need to be extended, there is a risk that the markets will be caught off-guard with a decision to delay it, in order to prevent further US Shale production from reaching the landscape.

Should OPEC and Non-OPEC agree to an increase in production for the second half of the year, a volume war could be on the cards with this providing sellers with heavy encouragement to begin pricing in the resumption of heavy selling momentum and a possible return to the historic lows for Oil.

The other risk scenario that investors would be mindful to factor into consideration is that there is an agreement to throw in the towel and submit to extending not only the duration of the current agreement, but also cutting further output.

Although this would be seen as OPEC declaring Shale victorious in the production war and would also further weaken the credibility of oil producers who, until just a few years ago, were in full control of global oil production, it would most probably achieve a stronger rebound in the price of Oil.

Basically what this could come down to is whether OPEC and Non-OPEC members are willing to lose face by accepting defeat to Shale in return for a further boost in revenue, or are they committed to prolonging their participation in this ongoing production war with Shale?

GBPUSD not ready to touch 1.30 yet?
The Pound is trading in a very narrow range against the Dollar at the beginning of the week as the spotlight shines on the French election result, and it looks like the British Pound is shying away from touching 1.30 for the first time since September 2016.

While the Pound benefitted from some impressive PMI results last week, it is possible that investors will shift their attention to the Bank of England (BoE) and the likelihood of inflation risks being highlighted when the latest inflation report is delivered this Thursday.

 

 

 


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E-Financial

CBN Dismisses  Polaris Bank Liquidation Claim

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Polaris Bank
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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has debunked rumours suggesting that Polaris Bank is undergoing liquidation, assuring the public that the country’s banking system remains stable and secure.

CBN Dismisses  Polaris Bank Liquidation Claim

Polaris Bank

The apex bank disclosed this in a post on X, where it shared a screenshot of a viral claim and flagged it as false.

It clarified that the claims, suggesting Polaris Bank had failed to meet recapitalisation requirements and was set for liquidation, are entirely false and do not reflect the current state of the Nigerian banking sector

“The Central Bank of Nigeria has noticed reports, in certain media outlets, about a recommendation for the Federal Government to take over some CBN-supervised financial institutions,” said Hakama Sidi-Ali, apex bank’s acting Director, Corporate Communications,  in a statement.

“To avoid any doubt, Nigerian banks are still safe and sound. The CBN advises the public to go about their daily lives without getting disturbed by reports regarding the health of Nigerian banks that have not come from the CBN.

“The CBN is fully equipped to carry out its statutory duty of ensuring the stability of Nigeria’s financial system. “We assure the general public and depositors that their funds are safe in Nigerian financial institutions. “Bank customers are therefore advised to proceed with their banking transactions as u

The clarification was after a viral post, claiming that Polaris Bank was facing liquidation for failing to meet the Bank’s recapitalisation requirements, and could soon lose its operating licence, with the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation set to take over the process.

It further alleged that founder of the Eleganza Group, Razaq Okoya, had made a bid to acquire and revive the bank, pending approval from regulators and shareholders.

Sharing a screenshot of the viral claim, however, the apex bank flagged it as “fake content.”

It clarified that the claims, suggesting Polaris Bank had failed to meet recapitalisation requirements and was set for liquidation did not reflect the current state of the Nigerian banking sector.

“This content is fake. Let the public be guided. The Nigerian Banking System is Safe and Secure,” the bank said.

On April 1, the CBN confirmed that 33 banks successfully met the revised minimum capital requirements under its recapitalisation programme, marking a significant milestone in strengthening the financial system.

 

 


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AfDB Okays $200m for Nigeria’s Digital Backbone, Others

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African Development Bank Group (AfDB) has approved a $200 million loan to Nigeria to support a landmark digital infrastructure initiative aimed at expanding broadband access, developing digital skills and driving large‑scale job creation.

AfDB Okays $200m for Nigeria’s Digital Backbone, Others

The financing will support the Digital Value Chain Infrastructure for Boosting Employment project, known as D‑VIBE or Project BRIDGE. The initiative seeks to deploy about 90 000 kilometres of new open‑access fibre optic cable across Nigeria, extending the national fibre backbone from roughly 30 000 km to about 120 000 km.

The expanded network will connect all 774 local government areas, including schools, hospitals, agro‑industrial zones, rural communities and commercial centres. It will also establish cross‑border digital links with Benin, Cameroon, Niger and Chad, strengthening regional integration.

Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and West Africa’s largest economy, with the digital sector increasingly contributing to gross domestic product growth. The project is expected to close major connectivity gaps, raise productivity and unlock job opportunities for young people.

D‑VIBE is structured as a public‑private partnership through a special purpose vehicle, with public ownership capped at between 25% and 49% and private sector participation ranging from 51% to 75%.

This structure is intended to address high fibre rollout costs, including construction and right‑of‑way challenges.

The African Development Bank loan forms part of an $800 million sovereign financing package, alongside $500 million from the World Bank and $100 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Total project financing is estimated at $2 billion, including a $25.79 million European Union grant, a $2.6 million Multilateral Cooperation Centre for Development Finance preparation grant and at least $1.2 billion in private sector investment.

“Nigeria has the talent, the market and the ambition, but lacked the backbone infrastructure to connect opportunity with potential,” said Abdul Kamara, Director General of the African Development Bank Group’s Nigeria Office.

“This project will deliver high‑speed connectivity nationwide and equip young people to build digital careers.”

Beyond physical infrastructure, the project will support affordable devices, large‑scale digital skills training and digital platforms in priority sectors. It also includes cybersecurity, competition reforms and resilience measures, including greater use of renewable and hybrid power.

D‑VIBE is expected to help create up to 2.8 million jobs and raise broadband penetration from 45% to around 70% by 2030. The project aligns with Nigeria’s Vision 2050 and continental development priorities.


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Nigeria’s Growth under Threat as Poverty Deepens, World Bank Warns

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World Bank has warned that Nigeria faces a deepening early childhood development crisis in health, nutrition, and learning, threatening long-term productivity and economic growth amid persistent poverty.

Nigeria’s Growth under Threat as Poverty Deepens, World Bank Warns

World Bank

In its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update, “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development,” the bank noted moderate 2026 growth driven by services like ICT, financial services, and real estate, following 4.0 per cent GDP expansion in 2025. Inflation eased to double digits via tight policy, stable exchange rates, and better food supply, while reserves hit $45.5 billion gross by end-2025, covering 8.7 months of imports.

Fiscal deficit widened slightly as non-oil revenues rose to 8.5 per cent of GDP from improved tax administration, e-filing, and VAT e-invoicing, though wage growth lagged inflation, leaving real incomes strained and poverty unchanged.

The bank highlighted poor outcomes with 110 of 1,000 children dying before age five, 40 per cent stunted, and 52 per cent developmentally off-track at school entry—gaps three times wider in poor households and exceeding 40 points between rich and poor. It urged investment in the first 2,000 days for better education, earnings, health, and cohesion.

Regionally, Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2026 growth forecast dipped to 4.1 per cent from 4.4 per cent due to Middle East conflict inflating fuel and fertiliser costs.

Finance Minister Wale Edun countered with recovery signs: falling inflation, rising non-oil revenues, declining debt-to-GDP, and stabilising naira via digital tracking, audits, and PPP shifts. Budget Director Tanimu Yakubu described reforms as correcting imbalances from subsidies and multiple rates, boosting FAAC revenues 40 per cent and reserves over $40 billion, with debt under 30 per cent of GDP.

NACCIMA President Jani Ibrahim called for data-driven strategies amid tax changes, inflation, and global tensions, eyeing AfCFTA, digital economy, and green investments for growth.


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