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FXTM Analysis: Volatility Elevated Ahead Of May’s Brexit Speech

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Hussein Sayed, FXTM Chief Market Strategist comments on U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s has no interest in partial departure which suggests we’re heading towards a “Hard Brexit”:

Financial markets are anxiously awaiting the U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech later today where she will lay out a detailed divorce plan from the EU.

A lot of reports were leaked since Sunday on what to expect her to say, and the most interesting part is that she has no interest in partial departure which suggests we’re heading towards a “Hard Brexit”.

Traders were very fast to react, sending the pound 1.6% lower on Monday to trade below 1.20.

However, the recovery in early Asian trade Tuesday indicates that a lot of the bad news is already priced in, and for the pound to fall substantially lower it requires more than just signs of a Hard Brexit plan.

If the Supreme Court decided that May needs to secure the consent of Parliament before triggering article 50, potentially delaying Brexit for a couple of months, this is likely to provide Sterling with a boost by unwinding many short positions.

Traders should be aware that Sterling won’t be a one way play and volatility could be elevated to extreme levels.

On the data front, U.K. CPI is expected to hit 1.4% in December, up 0.2% from November and 0.5% from October’s reading.

This will not only mark the highest inflation rate since mid-2014 but the pace of inflation escalation is pulling the U.K.’s real interest rates even lower. Of course, this is going to be a challenge for the BoE, but if it indicates anything, it is that interest rates next move is only upwards, leaving monetary policy with very few options to support the economy if needed.

The safe haven Yen is the major beneficiary of the heightened uncertainty over the U.K.’s Hard Brexit scenario and Trump’s policies. USDJPY has fallen for the seventh straight day, and declined by more than 4.3% from its January 3rd peak. The fall in bond yields worldwide will continue to lend some support for the Yen, but whenever this trade is over I expect the Yen to weaken again.

The U.S. dollar is falling against all its major peers with the index dropping below 101. There’s no fundamental reason for the selloff and I don’t think the dollar’s rally is over yet, but the “Trump trade” has clearly cooled down in the past couple of days as markets still have many unanswered questions regarding future fiscal policies. Let’s hope we get some answers during Friday’s inauguration.

 

 


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E-Financial

CBN Introduces Stricter BVN Rules to Curb Fraudulent Transactions

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has introduced stricter rules guiding the use and management of the Bank Verification Number (BVN) as part of efforts to reduce fraudulent transactions within the financial system.The revised framework, which takes effect from May 1, includes tighter controls on BVN enrolment, data access and customer information updates.

CBN Introduces Stricter BVN Rules to Curb Fraudulent Transactions

The apex bank said the measures are aimed at strengthening identity management, improving fraud monitoring and safeguarding the integrity of banking transactions.

Under the new guidelines, BVN enrolment is now restricted to individuals aged 18 and above, while customers will only be allowed to change the phone number linked to their BVN once.

The restriction is designed to curb identity manipulation often exploited by fraudsters through repeated updates of personal information.

The CBN also directed financial institutions to maintain a temporary watchlist for BVNs linked to suspicious transactions.

Affected BVNs may be flagged for up to 24 hours, during which customers are expected to verify or clarify flagged transactions before further action is taken.

In addition, access to BVN data has been tightened, with the apex bank retaining exclusive control over the database while granting access only to licensed financial institutions under defined conditions.

The move, according to the CBN, is expected to enhance data security and support a more resilient financial system as BVN enrolment continues to grow.


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Binance is Missing from Ghana’s Crypto Sandbox

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Ghana’s Securities and Exchange Commission has given the nod to 11 crypto trading platforms to participate in its new regulatory sandbox programme, its first major step in support of crypto after passing a law to provide the local market with regulatory clarity in December.

Binance is Missing from Ghana’s Crypto Sandbox

The big news however is that Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume is nowhere on the list, raising questions about the crypto exchange’s future in one of West Africa’s fastest-growing digital asset markets.

Newsghana reported that industry analysts covering the sandbox launch specifically flagged Binance as a notable absent player, alongside Yellow Card, whose mobile payment product Yellow Pay had previously been warned against by the Bank of Ghana (BoG) for operating without authorisation. Neither company has publicly explained its absence from the cohort.

For Binance, the omission carries particular weight. The exchange has cultivated a visible presence in Ghana for several years, including direct engagement with regulators, public financial literacy campaigns, and the presence of senior representatives in Accra.

Despite that groundwork, it did not secure a place in the inaugural sandbox when the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) published its list of approved Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) on March 10, 2026.

Analysts have pointed to Binance’s ongoing legal battle in neighbouring Nigeria as a factor likely complicating its regulatory position across the region.

And the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) is pursuing Binance for an $81.5 billion claim covering alleged economic losses and unpaid taxes, arguing the exchange has a significant economic presence that makes it liable for corporate income tax for 2022 and 2023, along with a 10 percent annual penalty on outstanding amounts.

The stakes of remaining outside Ghana’s regulatory framework are rising fast.

The BoG made clear on March 5, 2026, that all VASPs operating within Ghana’s jurisdiction including those serving Ghanaian residents through digital platforms with no physical office in the country must register with the Bank.

Firms that do not comply face sanctions and potential disqualification from future licensing.

Ghana’s digital asset market has grown rapidly, recording over $10 billion in cryptocurrency transactions by November 2025, up from roughly $6 billion the year before, making it one of West Africa’s most active markets.

With over three million users estimated to be active in the ecosystem, the country represents a market Binance cannot easily afford to be shut out of through regulatory non-compliance.

The eleven sandbox participants will effectively serve as the reference models for what a compliant licensed VASP looks like under Ghana’s framework.

Those that perform well within the first six months may transition to full licensing early, while those that fall short risk being shut out of the regulated market once the sandbox period concludes.

Binance did not respond to a request for comment before publication. The SEC Ghana and BoG have not publicly commented on why specific companies were excluded from the first sandbox cohort.


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World Bank Debars 3 PwC Subsidiaries for 21 Months over Alleged Project Fraud

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World Bank Group has debarred three African subsidiaries of global advisory firm, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), for 21 months after being allegedly found guilty of manipulating procurement processes for a major cross-border electricity project.

World Bank Debars 3 PwC Subsidiaries for 21 Months over Alleged Project Fraud

In a statement, the Washington-based multilateral lender said PricewaterhouseCoopers Associates Africa Ltd, based in Mauritius, along with its Kenyan and Rwandan affiliates, engaged in “collusive and fraudulent practices” linked to the Eastern Electricity Highway Project, a flagship initiative to transmit hydropower from Ethiopia to Kenya.

The decision sidelines PwC from lucrative World Bank-funded projects on the continent, dealing a blow to one of the region’s most influential audit and advisory firms.

This development could reshape competition for high-value consulting work across emerging markets, potentially disrupting startups and tech firms reliant on World Bank funding, as scrutiny over governance and compliance tightens.

The World Bank, through its private sector arm, International Finance Corporation (IFC), offers grants and low-interest loans to startups across emerging markets.

Earlier this week, the IFC committed $20 million to invest in high-growth startups in Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa.

“The debarment makes PwC Associates, PwC Kenya, PwC Rwanda, and any affiliates they control ineligible to participate in Bank Group-financed projects and operations,” the World Bank said.

“It is part of a settlement agreement under which the three companies admit culpability for sanctionable practices.”

The determination was based on the company’s conduct between 2019 and the award of contracts for consultancy services and asset valuation work for the Ethiopian state power utilities.

According to the World Bank statement, the firm obtained confidential procurement documents to improperly influence the award of a contract for the implementation of International Financial Reporting Standards at the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation.

They also attempted to steer a separate contract for a fixed asset inventory and revaluation for the power utility towards PwC Associates.

During the bidding and execution of that contract, the bank found that the company misrepresented the availability and qualifications of key experts and failed to disclose the full list of subconsultants involved.

According to the World Bank, the debarment is shorter than would otherwise apply because PwC admitted misconduct.

The advisory firm also agreed to a series of remedial measures, including internal investigations, disciplinary action against responsible staff, terminating relationships with all subconsultants involved, and additional staff training.

 


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