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FXTM: Moment of Truth for OPEC, Be Ready for Volatility Ahead

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Everybody wants a deal, but not everyone is willing to participate in making one. This is how it currently feels with just 24 hours before ministers from OPEC meet to reveal their strategy for ending a 3-year global supply glut.

Iran and Iraq remain to be the major obstacle to any meaningful production cut, and Saudi’s energy minister comments on Sunday that the market would balance itself in 2017 even if producers did not intervene brings more pessimism and doubts than hopefulness over the long-term outlook.

Although it might be true that markets will rebalance in 2017 whether a production cut is reached or not, oil bears are just waiting for a signal to push the sell button, and 15% decline towards $40 looks very reasonable incase no significant deal was reached.

However, markets still believe that a production cut of 500,000 to 1 million barrel per day is achievable tomorrow and this explains Monday’s price action where both major benchmarks rose by more than 2%.

A meaningful deal is required more than ever as GCC economies fiscal deficits continues to widen and lower public spending is weighing heavily on growth, but given the political differences between OPEC members there’s a high chance we’ll end up with only a face saver deal.

Traders should be prepared for a volatile session ahead with many headlines to hit the wires in the next 24 hours and this volatility will spread beyond oil to equities and fixed income markets.

The Dollar Rally Coming to an End?
Profit taking and mild declines in U.S. treasury yields pulled back the U.S. dollar slightly from its 13-year highs. Most of the sell-off was seen against the Japanese Yen which recovered almost 1.5% from its lowest levels since February.

Monday brought the question on whether the rally on the U.S. dollar was over, or it’s only a slight correction before it resumes the uptrend?

To answer this question, we need to know what is the Fed thinking of.

Will they raise rates in December and wait longer for a second hike? Or a series of hikes will be projected for 2017? A couple of Fed presidents are scheduled to speak this week, and if they indicate that tighter monetary policy is needed in 2017 the dollar rally will likely resume, if no guidance is given then traders should rely on economic data, specifically Friday’s non-farms payroll. However, any declines in U.S. dollar are likely to be minor especially against the Euro and the Pound given that many political tensions are likely to hit the Euro Area in the next couple of weeks. 


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E-Financial

SEC Urges IST to Freeze all CBEX Bank Accounts in Nigeria

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has asked the Investments and Securities Tribunal (IST) to order the freezing of all bank accounts belonging to Crypto Bridge Exchange (CBEX) and other defendants held in commercial banks and financial institutions across Nigeria.

The request was made in Suit No. IST/OA/02/2025: Securities and Exchange Commission & Anor v. Crypto Bridge Exchange (CBEX) & 25 Others, the first case before the 6th Tribunal presided over by Hon. Aminu Jinaidu, Chairman of the IST.

SEC also urged the Tribunal to seize houses and other assets allegedly acquired by the defendants using proceeds obtained from the public through the CBEX investment scheme, which it said falsely operated as a digital assets platform and capital-market operator.

The Commission argued that CBEX, which is not registered with SEC, unlawfully promised investors a 100 percent return on investment within 30 days—conduct it said is in violation of Section 3(b) of the Investments and Securities Act, 2025.

SEC further disclosed that the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong had, on April 23, 2024, issued an advisory warning against CBEX, describing it as a suspicious virtual-asset entity. According to the advisory, CBEX adopted a name resembling that of a Chinese property-rights trading organisation to give investors false assurance, despite having no connection with the legitimate entity.

At Tuesday’s sitting, the Tribunal ordered that hearing notices be served on the defendants through national newspapers, as CBEX failed to appear and was not represented in court.

CBEX launched in Nigeria in July 2024, operating through a website and mobile app. It claimed to use advanced artificial intelligence to generate unusually high profits from cryptocurrency trading, promising returns of up to 100 percent within a 40- to 45-day lock-in period. The scheme later collapsed and was exposed as a Ponzi operation that reportedly defrauded investors of more than N1.3 trillion (about $800 million).

Hon. Jinaidu also presided over several other matters on the tribunal’s docket, including Benue Investments Property Co. Ltd & Anor v. Securities and Exchange Commission & 6 Others; Maven Asset Management Ltd v. Securities and Exchange Commission; John Makinde Onade & Anor v. First Registrars & Investors Services Ltd & Anor; and Securities and Exchange Commission & Anor v. Tourist Company of Nigeria PLC & 6 Ors. All the cases were adjourned to January 27, 2026.

 


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CBN Rejigs Financial Inclusion Strategy to Boost Economic Growth

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Philip Ikeazor, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Deputy Governor for Financial System Stability, said financial inclusion must remain a core priority in the nation’s economic transformation agenda, reaffirming that the next phase of CBN reforms will be crucial for driving growth, stability, and poverty reduction.

Represented by Aisha Issa Olatinwo, director of consumer protection and financial inclusion at the 9th Annual Financial Markets Conference organised by the Financial Markets Dealers Association, Ikeazor noted that the connection between financial inclusion, economic stability, and national growth is now clearer than ever, describing inclusion as a fundamental pillar for improving livelihoods.

“Every individual should be able to access secure and reliable financial services with the potential to increase prosperity, reduce poverty, and enable social well-being,” he said.

Despite progress over the past decade, particularly the rising adoption of digital wallets, bank accounts, and formal financial channels, he acknowledged that key barriers persist. Rural and low-income populations still face challenges such as limited access points, low financial literacy, infrastructure gaps, and regulatory constraints.

Ikeazor highlighted improvements recorded between 2012 and 2023, including declines in the number of adults depending solely on informal financial systems, but warned that more work is required to close remaining access gaps.

He reaffirmed the apex bank’s commitment to accelerating reforms under the National Financial Inclusion Strategy, which is currently being updated to its next phase, NFIS 4.0.

The revised framework, he said, will focus on strengthening digital channels, deepening credit access, and ensuring underserved groups are better supported.

“Policy remains at the heart of our efforts,” he noted. “We have implemented a range of initiatives from the original strategy to the current version under review, which will come out as NFIS 4.0.”

According to Ikeazor, technology remains the most powerful driver of inclusion. Digital financial services ranging from mobile wallets to fintech-enabled credit are breaking old barriers and enabling millions to access services previously out of reach.

He added that the CBN is working to ensure a safe digital environment by prioritising cybersecurity, consumer protection, and responsible innovation.

He also outlined how financial inclusion fuels economic expansion: improved credit access, greater participation in the economy, increased savings and investment, stronger resilience to shocks, and more opportunities for job creation and poverty reduction.

“Financial inclusion can help reduce income inequality and grow the economy to its full potential,” he said.

The Deputy Governor stressed that collaboration across stakeholders, regulators, financial institutions, fintech innovators, civil society, and development partners will determine the success of Nigeria’s inclusion agenda.

“Achieving our vision requires collaboration across governments, regulators, financial institutions, technology developers, civil society and the public,” he said, urging stakeholders to recommit to building a resilient and future-proof financial system.

He added that Nigeria’s youthful demographics and rapid digital adoption present a significant opportunity to achieve near-universal financial inclusion in the coming years.

 


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FG, SEC, NGX Group Agree on Capital Gains Tax Reform

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The Federal Government has inaugurated the National Tax Policy Implementation Committee (NTPIC), marking a deliberate shift toward a more predictable and market-aligned rollout of the newly enacted capital-gains-tax (CGT) provisions.

The move follows extensive technical engagements with key capital-market institutions, including the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group), reflecting policymakers’ recognition of the market’s role in sustaining liquidity, price discovery and long-term capital formation.

Chaired by leading tax and fiscal-policy expert Joseph Tegbe, the committee has been tasked with steering the implementation process toward clarity, investor protection and policy coherence. Its mandate includes ensuring transparent guidelines, broad stakeholder consultation and an execution framework that minimizes market disruption while reinforcing confidence among domestic and foreign investors.

Tegbe said the government would avoid policies that risk disrupting market activity or business investment. “Implementation of the new tax laws will be fair, transparent and humane. We will not roll out these policies in a way that cripples businesses or investors. Stakeholder engagement will be central to this process,” he said at the inauguration.

The shift follows sustained engagements by NGX Group and the SEC, during which market operators outlined the potential implications of a rapid CGT rollout on liquidity, investor sentiment and the market’s competitiveness at a time when Nigeria is seeking deeper pools of domestic and foreign capital.

Temi Popoola, GMD/CEO of NGX Group, commended the government’s approach, noting that the group, in collaboration with the SEC, has consistently advocated for a data driven approach that balances fiscal objectives with the need to preserve market depth. “We support the modernisation of Nigeria’s tax system, but reforms of this scale must be carefully calibrated to protect liquidity, sustain participation and maintain competitiveness,” he said.

He added, “Our engagements with government have focused on ensuring that implementation supports the capital market’s role in long-term investment and economic growth.”

Popoola noted that global competitiveness hinges not only on policy intent but also on the precision of execution, particularly for emerging markets seeking cross-border flows.

The government’s consultations intensified after the Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, visited NGX Group, where market operators outlined the potential unintended consequences of an abrupt CGT rollout.

Analysts view the inauguration of the NTPIC as a constructive signal to investors, indicating that authorities intend to anchor fiscal reforms in evidence and consultation, rather than speed alone.

Both SEC and NGX Group have pledged continued collaboration with the committee to ensure that the eventual CGT implementation supports confidence, broadens participation and aligns with long-term capital-market development objectives.


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