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FXTM: Sentiment Towards Nigerian Economy Bearish, But Traders Hopeful

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Depressed oil prices have punished the largest economy in Africa with ongoing concerns over a slowdown in domestic economic momentum weighing heavily on investor sentiment.

Unemployment in 2016 has skyrocketed to shocking levels while rising inflationary pressures continue to rock the nation’s stability.

Although there was some optimism over the signed 2016 budget, questions are repeatedly being asked if the current funding could oversee the changes needed to steer Nigeria away from being heavily export dependent.

The business environment is changing rapidly and events such as the removal of fuel oil subsidies coupled with speculations of a Naira devaluation could create explosive levels of volatility consequently providing an opportunity for traders to attack.

Sentiment towards the Nigerian economy remains bearish, and the government’s bold move to relinquish fuel subsidies may have exacerbated fears of an economic slowdown further.

The painful combination of renewed militancy that has sabotaged production, coupled with ongoing low oil prices has left the government in a position where it is unable to sustain granting subsidies.

Although since the start of the year Nigeria has spent a staggering $5 billion on fuel subsidies, questions have been raised if this has reduced the suffering of low income earners or even mitigated the fuel scarcity.

With foreign exchange shortages rife, fuel importers are turning to the black market exchange rate consequently spending more local currency to buy the dollar and the transferred costs are bruising consumers further.

For an extended period, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) has followed a negative path sending prices crashing to as much as N1.73 trillion since May 2015. Although the declines in stocks were in line with faltering oil prices, the resurgence in Dollar strength from the heightened US rate expectations could have attributed to this selloff.

While the Dollar may not be the legal tender in Nigeria, it seems to have a strong grip with an ever appreciating Dollar causing the Naira to weaken considerably in 2016.

Even without discussing the topic of a devaluation, the rising optimism over the Fed taking action in 2016 could leave the Naira vulnerable to further losses on the black markets and this should provide an opportunity for traders to attack.

Financial heavy weights, such as the International Monetary fund, have repeatedly indicated their readiness to elevate Nigeria’s economy with credit liquidity on the basis of a Naira devaluation, but President Muhammad Buhari continues to discount this idea.

It should be kept in mind that Nigeria is a consuming nation which imports most of its goods and because the only major export is oil, the benefits of a devaluation in that dimension may be limited.

Although the Central Bank of Nigeria has displayed some flexibility with speculations mounting over a potential flexi rate exchange policy of N285, the ongoing fears that the nation could enter a technical recession, coupled with a slash in credit ratings have made it difficult to acquire funding.

With all paths potentially pointing back to the IMF, if GDP growth in Q2 fails to meet expectations then the pressure could force the CBN to devalue and accept a loan from the IMF in an attempt to restart economic growth while diversifying from a reliance on oil.

Although the Nigerian economy is currently under pressure from the combination of Naira vulnerability, declining GDP, and weak oil prices, there is still some optimism over the nation retaining stability in the future.

It must be understood that the basic steps have already been implemented to slowly diversify away from being heavily oil export-reliant, with the key investments in agriculture and manufacturing potentially paving a way for the economy to break away from the shackles of falling oil prices.

While sellers may exploit the bearish nature of the Naira and Nigerian Stock Exchange as fears heighten over a potential recession, the long run could still be bullish.

If Nigeria is able to overcome this harsh period and emerge as a self-reliant economy that is not affected by external shocks, the Naira could claw back losses against the Dollar while the NSE trades higher as risk appetite returns.

 


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E-Financial

SEC Hikes Minimum Capital Requirements for Market Operators After a Decade

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has revised the minimum capital applicable to all categories of regulated capital market entities after 10 years.

The minimum capital review, according to the SEC, is informed by the need to strengthen market resilience, enhance investor protection, align capital adequacy with the evolving risk profile of market activities, and ensure that regulated entities possess sufficient financial capacity to discharge their obligations in a sustainable manner.

“The revised Minimum Capital framework seeks to: enhance the financial soundness and operational resilience of market operators; align capital requirements with the scope, complexity, and risk exposure of regulated activities; promote market stability and systemic risk mitigation; and support innovation and orderly development of new market segments, including digital assets and commodities markets,” SEC said in a January 16 circular to market operators.

The SEC circular was sent to all entities regulated by the Commission, including but not limited to core and non-core capital market operators; market infrastructure institutions; capital market consultants; financial technology (FinTech) operators; Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs); and Commodity market intermediaries.

All affected entities are required to comply with the revised Minimum Capital Requirements on or before June 30, 2027, the circular said.

“Entities that fail to meet the prescribed requirements within the stipulated timeline shall be subject to appropriate regulatory sanctions, including suspension or withdrawal of registration, as may be determined by the Commission,” SEC said.

Tier-1 Portfolio Managers (Full Scope) involved in the management of Collective Investment Schemes (CIS) and Alternative Investment Funds (Private Equity, Venture Capital, Infrastructure Funds etc) above N20 billion Net Asset Value (NAV), or discretionary and Non-Discretionary Private Portfolio Management Services above N20 billion Assets under Management (AuM), or exposure to foreign instruments up to 40 percent of the NAV are now required to have a minimum capital of N5 billion as against N150 million.

“Any Fund and Portfolio Manager with NAV/AuM of more than N100billion should have a minimum of 10 percent of the NAV/AuM as capital,” SEC added.

For the Tier-2 fund/portfolio managers (Limited Scope) who are in the business of management of Collective Investment Schemes with limited pooled fund creation of not more than 10 times the required capital (N20 billion) on Net Asset Value (NAV), or discretionary and non-discretionary private portfolio management services of not more than N20 billion, or those exposure to foreign instruments of not more than 20 percent of the NAV, now require N2 billion as minimum capital as against low of N150 million.

Likewise, broker-dealers whose services include: client execution, proprietary trading, margin/securities lending and advisory services no longer require N300 million minimum capital to operate but N2 billion.

The SEC said the minimum capital review from 2015 low is in line with its mandate under the Investments and Securities Act 2025 to regulate and develop the Nigerian capital market.

Also, Tier 1 issuing houses who do non-interest finance services, advisory & arrangement services but no underwriting now require N2 billion as against N200 million; while Tier 2 –issuing houses with underwriting and offers a ‘one-stop-shop’ for issuers, provides underwriting services, and renders advisory and product development services require N7 billion minimum capital for this business as against N200 million.

Also, the minimum capital requirement for brokers (client execution only) has been jacked up from N200 million to N600 million, while that of dealers (proprietary trading only) has been moved from N100 million to N1 billion.

Broker-Dealers’ (client execution, proprietary trading, margin/securities lending and advisory services) has been raised from N300 million to N2 billion, while Sub-Brokers’ (Digital) from N10million to N100million; Sub-Broker (Corporate) has been increased from N10million to N50 million. Also, sub-brokers’ (Individual) now need N10 million minimum capital for the business as against N2 million while inter-dealer brokers require N2 billion as against N50 million.


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SEC Partners Police in Nationwide Crackdown on Ponzi Schemes, Crypto Frauds

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigeria Police Force have forged an alliance against illegal scheme operators, investment frauds, and cryptocurrency frauds in a bid to protect the hard-earned savings and the financial dreams of the Nigerian people.

SEC Partners Police in Nationwide Crackdown on Ponzi Schemes, Crypto Frauds

Dr Emomotimi Agama, director-general of the SEC, stated this during a meeting with Kayode Egbetokun, Inspector General of Police, held in Abuja.

Agama said the SEC, as the sentinel at the gate of Nigeria’s formal capital markets, had the mandate to protect investors, maintain fair, efficient, and transparent markets, and promote the growth of a vibrant economy built on trust, which is done by setting rules, licensing operators and market surveillance.

He, however, stated that the Commission faced adversaries who operate in the shadows, outside regulated gates by exploiting the trust of people and promising miraculous returns such as 200 per cent in 30 days.

“Currently, there is a gap, a seam between identification and enforcement that these scammers exploit. Today, we aim to close that gap permanently. Therefore, we propose a robust, institutionalised collaboration with the following pillars: Joint Intelligence and Operations Task Force: Capacity Building and Knowledge Transfer; Streamlined Processes for Enforcement and National Public Awareness Campaign,” he stated.

The SEC DG advocated, “the establishment of a dedicated SEC-NPF team that combines market intelligence, forensic accounting, and understanding of complex financial schemes with investigative and intelligence-gathering capabilities. This team will be the rapid-response unit to new frauds.”

Agama also sought the permission of the IGP to go into a Memorandum of Understanding with the Cyber Security Unit of the Police Force in a bid to ensure that cyberspace is safe for all Nigerians

In his response, the IGP Kayode Egbetokun assured the SEC team that the Nigerian police Force is ready to collaborate with the Commission, strengthen partnership in all the ways possible, and ensure that the Commission achieves its aims.

He said, “Your role in the Securities and Exchange Commission is very crucial to the Nigerian Economy, and with our supervision and support from the government, we will ensure economic recovery and growth. If the police unit in SEC is strengthened, it is going to make such an impact on your enforcement drive. What you said speaks so much to your determination to ensure effective drive in the Capital market, and when we can achieve effective enforcement, it comes with so many benefits.

Egbetokun also congratulated the Commission on the recent achievement of the N100 trillion market capitalisation mark, adding that it will aid economic growth and development.


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E-Financial

Paystack Expands Beyond Payments into Banking

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Nigerian fintech giant, Paystack has taken its boldest step yet beyond payments, acquiring Ladder Microfinance Bank. The fintech giant has quickly rebranded its new acquisition as Paystack Microfinance Bank (MFB) in a strategic shift that could reshape how African businesses access credit, deposits, and embedded financial services.

After nearly a decade building the backbone of online payments in Nigeria, the deal gives Paystack regulatory cover to hold deposits, lend directly to businesses and offer banking-as-a-service products.

More importantly, Paystack’s chief operating officer, Amandine Lobelle, highlighted that it allows the company to exert greater control over the trillions of naira that already flow through its platform every month, turning transaction data into a powerful engine for credit and treasury products.

“After 10 years of building payment infrastructure and going deep, we realised that businesses needed more than just getting paid to grow. We wanted to leverage the expertise that we have built over the last decade to continue to address some of the pain points that businesses have,” said Lobelle.

Paystack MFB will operate as a sister company to its payments business, initially focusing on working capital loans, merchant cash advances, overdrafts and term loans for small and medium-sized enterprises.

By using real-time payment data to underwrite loans, Paystack believes it can offer faster approvals and more accurate risk pricing than traditional lenders, directly tackling Nigeria’s estimated $32 billion small business financing gap.

For Paystack, founded in 2016 and acquired by Stripe in 2020, the move marks a strategic evolution from being just a payments processor to becoming a core part of the financial operating system for African businesses.

Today, Paystack supports more than 300,000 businesses across Nigeria, Ghana, and South Africa and has become one of Africa’s most trusted fintech infrastructure providers.

The banking licence is a game-changer as payments, once Paystack’s main growth engine, are increasingly commoditised across Africa. Lending, deposits and treasury services offer deeper margins, stickier relationships and long-term sustainability.

By layering banking services on top of payments, Paystack is betting that infrastructure depth will outperform flashy consumer scale.

However, the move also throws the Nigerian-born fintech giant into fierce competition with digital -first lenders and neobanks such as Moniepoint, Kuda, OPay and PalmPay, which already operate at massive scale. Still, Paystack’s strength lies in its merchant-first focus and developer-friendly APIs.

 


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