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IMF Warnings Renew Market Jitters

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Sentiment towards the global economy was dealt a numbing blow during trading on Tuesday following the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) gloomy outlook on global growth which consequently dented risk appetite.

These meek outlooks come at a time when the violent combination of stubbornly low commodity price and ongoing China woes has persistently exposed other nations to major downside risks.

With the horrible cocktail of ongoing global instabilities potentially sabotaging any real recovery in global growth and blurring economic outlooks, it seems likely that the IMF will slash growth forecasts once again at the next meeting in Washington.
 
The logical steps to mitigating the headwinds of slowing global growth in a normal market environment may be to unleash further accommodative monetary policy, but recent market reactions from central bank intervention have almost exacerbated the situation.

We live in a period of negative rate policies where unorthodox central bank interventions have severely warped the financial markets, only leaving investors more anxious.

Confidence towards the global economy was already low and with the IMF’s fears adding to the mixture of falling oil prices, Brexit fears, China concerns and emerging market weakness, investors may be encouraged to scatter from riskier assets.
 
Stock markets were left vulnerable on Tuesday and concluded surrendering to the bears as depressed oil prices chipped away at risk appetite.

Europe, Asia and American markets descended into the red territory following the IMF’s timid outlook on global growth that renewed a sharp wave of risk aversion.

With anxiety mounting ahead of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday forcing investors to flee from riskier assets, stock could be poised to decline further with Asia leading the selloff as risk aversion boosts appetite for the safe-haven Japanese Yen.
 
FOMC Minutes in Focus‎
Investors may direct their attention towards the heavily anticipated FOMC minutes on Wednesday which could offer additional clarity on interest rate hike timings in 2016. In recent weeks sentiment towards the US economy was ripped in various directions following the clash of stances between hawkish Fed officials and the dovish Janet Yellen and today may offer some light as to why. 

Although data from the States continues to display signs of recovery, it seems clear that global developments dictate when or if the Fed will be raising US rates in 2016.

Sentiment is bearish towards the Dollar and with the latest comments from the IMF eroding any expectations over the Fed taking action in Q2, bearish investors have been provided a platform to attack.

The Dollar Index remains bearish on the daily timeframe and may be set to depreciate further if the FOMC minutes hint at a dovish tone or even fail to provide any direction on US rate hikes.

From a technical standpoint, prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the downside. Previous support at 95.50 may transform into a dynamic resistance which could trigger a further decline towards 94.00.
 ‎
WTI Crude Challenges $35
WTI experienced a technical bounce during trading on Tuesday which had nothing to do with an improved sentiment towards the heavily oversupplied commodity.

The lingering impact of Saudi Arabia’s unexpected comments on the success of an output freeze deal on Iran’s unlikely participation has left prices vulnerable to further losses.

With Iran remaining defiant on any talks of a production freeze, while currently boosting output to 4mbpd, any real recovery in prices could be curbed.

The sentiment is bearish towards WTI and with expectations mounting that the Doha meeting may conclude unsuccessful amid the conflict of interests, sellers could exploit this opportunity to send prices lower.
 
From a technical standpoint, WTI is bearish as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA and the breakdown below $35 has opened a path towards $30.
 
China in The Picture
China Caixin Services PMI exceeded expectations earlier this morning, but sentiment remains bearish towards the Chinese economy regardless with an increasing focus on its ability to maintaining the 6.5% GDP target for 2016.

Investors should keep in mind that in March data from Beijing followed a negative trajectory, while the elevated fears of a faster deceleration in economic momentum ensured the China markets remained depressed.

Although the nation is currently engaged in a mission to transform into an economy that prospers on global demand, China export-reliant countries continue to feel the pain.

By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM


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E-Financial

SEC Hikes Minimum Capital Requirements for Market Operators After a Decade

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has revised the minimum capital applicable to all categories of regulated capital market entities after 10 years.

The minimum capital review, according to the SEC, is informed by the need to strengthen market resilience, enhance investor protection, align capital adequacy with the evolving risk profile of market activities, and ensure that regulated entities possess sufficient financial capacity to discharge their obligations in a sustainable manner.

“The revised Minimum Capital framework seeks to: enhance the financial soundness and operational resilience of market operators; align capital requirements with the scope, complexity, and risk exposure of regulated activities; promote market stability and systemic risk mitigation; and support innovation and orderly development of new market segments, including digital assets and commodities markets,” SEC said in a January 16 circular to market operators.

The SEC circular was sent to all entities regulated by the Commission, including but not limited to core and non-core capital market operators; market infrastructure institutions; capital market consultants; financial technology (FinTech) operators; Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs); and Commodity market intermediaries.

All affected entities are required to comply with the revised Minimum Capital Requirements on or before June 30, 2027, the circular said.

“Entities that fail to meet the prescribed requirements within the stipulated timeline shall be subject to appropriate regulatory sanctions, including suspension or withdrawal of registration, as may be determined by the Commission,” SEC said.

Tier-1 Portfolio Managers (Full Scope) involved in the management of Collective Investment Schemes (CIS) and Alternative Investment Funds (Private Equity, Venture Capital, Infrastructure Funds etc) above N20 billion Net Asset Value (NAV), or discretionary and Non-Discretionary Private Portfolio Management Services above N20 billion Assets under Management (AuM), or exposure to foreign instruments up to 40 percent of the NAV are now required to have a minimum capital of N5 billion as against N150 million.

“Any Fund and Portfolio Manager with NAV/AuM of more than N100billion should have a minimum of 10 percent of the NAV/AuM as capital,” SEC added.

For the Tier-2 fund/portfolio managers (Limited Scope) who are in the business of management of Collective Investment Schemes with limited pooled fund creation of not more than 10 times the required capital (N20 billion) on Net Asset Value (NAV), or discretionary and non-discretionary private portfolio management services of not more than N20 billion, or those exposure to foreign instruments of not more than 20 percent of the NAV, now require N2 billion as minimum capital as against low of N150 million.

Likewise, broker-dealers whose services include: client execution, proprietary trading, margin/securities lending and advisory services no longer require N300 million minimum capital to operate but N2 billion.

The SEC said the minimum capital review from 2015 low is in line with its mandate under the Investments and Securities Act 2025 to regulate and develop the Nigerian capital market.

Also, Tier 1 issuing houses who do non-interest finance services, advisory & arrangement services but no underwriting now require N2 billion as against N200 million; while Tier 2 –issuing houses with underwriting and offers a ‘one-stop-shop’ for issuers, provides underwriting services, and renders advisory and product development services require N7 billion minimum capital for this business as against N200 million.

Also, the minimum capital requirement for brokers (client execution only) has been jacked up from N200 million to N600 million, while that of dealers (proprietary trading only) has been moved from N100 million to N1 billion.

Broker-Dealers’ (client execution, proprietary trading, margin/securities lending and advisory services) has been raised from N300 million to N2 billion, while Sub-Brokers’ (Digital) from N10million to N100million; Sub-Broker (Corporate) has been increased from N10million to N50 million. Also, sub-brokers’ (Individual) now need N10 million minimum capital for the business as against N2 million while inter-dealer brokers require N2 billion as against N50 million.


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SEC Partners Police in Nationwide Crackdown on Ponzi Schemes, Crypto Frauds

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigeria Police Force have forged an alliance against illegal scheme operators, investment frauds, and cryptocurrency frauds in a bid to protect the hard-earned savings and the financial dreams of the Nigerian people.

SEC Partners Police in Nationwide Crackdown on Ponzi Schemes, Crypto Frauds

Dr Emomotimi Agama, director-general of the SEC, stated this during a meeting with Kayode Egbetokun, Inspector General of Police, held in Abuja.

Agama said the SEC, as the sentinel at the gate of Nigeria’s formal capital markets, had the mandate to protect investors, maintain fair, efficient, and transparent markets, and promote the growth of a vibrant economy built on trust, which is done by setting rules, licensing operators and market surveillance.

He, however, stated that the Commission faced adversaries who operate in the shadows, outside regulated gates by exploiting the trust of people and promising miraculous returns such as 200 per cent in 30 days.

“Currently, there is a gap, a seam between identification and enforcement that these scammers exploit. Today, we aim to close that gap permanently. Therefore, we propose a robust, institutionalised collaboration with the following pillars: Joint Intelligence and Operations Task Force: Capacity Building and Knowledge Transfer; Streamlined Processes for Enforcement and National Public Awareness Campaign,” he stated.

The SEC DG advocated, “the establishment of a dedicated SEC-NPF team that combines market intelligence, forensic accounting, and understanding of complex financial schemes with investigative and intelligence-gathering capabilities. This team will be the rapid-response unit to new frauds.”

Agama also sought the permission of the IGP to go into a Memorandum of Understanding with the Cyber Security Unit of the Police Force in a bid to ensure that cyberspace is safe for all Nigerians

In his response, the IGP Kayode Egbetokun assured the SEC team that the Nigerian police Force is ready to collaborate with the Commission, strengthen partnership in all the ways possible, and ensure that the Commission achieves its aims.

He said, “Your role in the Securities and Exchange Commission is very crucial to the Nigerian Economy, and with our supervision and support from the government, we will ensure economic recovery and growth. If the police unit in SEC is strengthened, it is going to make such an impact on your enforcement drive. What you said speaks so much to your determination to ensure effective drive in the Capital market, and when we can achieve effective enforcement, it comes with so many benefits.

Egbetokun also congratulated the Commission on the recent achievement of the N100 trillion market capitalisation mark, adding that it will aid economic growth and development.


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E-Financial

Paystack Expands Beyond Payments into Banking

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Nigerian fintech giant, Paystack has taken its boldest step yet beyond payments, acquiring Ladder Microfinance Bank. The fintech giant has quickly rebranded its new acquisition as Paystack Microfinance Bank (MFB) in a strategic shift that could reshape how African businesses access credit, deposits, and embedded financial services.

After nearly a decade building the backbone of online payments in Nigeria, the deal gives Paystack regulatory cover to hold deposits, lend directly to businesses and offer banking-as-a-service products.

More importantly, Paystack’s chief operating officer, Amandine Lobelle, highlighted that it allows the company to exert greater control over the trillions of naira that already flow through its platform every month, turning transaction data into a powerful engine for credit and treasury products.

“After 10 years of building payment infrastructure and going deep, we realised that businesses needed more than just getting paid to grow. We wanted to leverage the expertise that we have built over the last decade to continue to address some of the pain points that businesses have,” said Lobelle.

Paystack MFB will operate as a sister company to its payments business, initially focusing on working capital loans, merchant cash advances, overdrafts and term loans for small and medium-sized enterprises.

By using real-time payment data to underwrite loans, Paystack believes it can offer faster approvals and more accurate risk pricing than traditional lenders, directly tackling Nigeria’s estimated $32 billion small business financing gap.

For Paystack, founded in 2016 and acquired by Stripe in 2020, the move marks a strategic evolution from being just a payments processor to becoming a core part of the financial operating system for African businesses.

Today, Paystack supports more than 300,000 businesses across Nigeria, Ghana, and South Africa and has become one of Africa’s most trusted fintech infrastructure providers.

The banking licence is a game-changer as payments, once Paystack’s main growth engine, are increasingly commoditised across Africa. Lending, deposits and treasury services offer deeper margins, stickier relationships and long-term sustainability.

By layering banking services on top of payments, Paystack is betting that infrastructure depth will outperform flashy consumer scale.

However, the move also throws the Nigerian-born fintech giant into fierce competition with digital -first lenders and neobanks such as Moniepoint, Kuda, OPay and PalmPay, which already operate at massive scale. Still, Paystack’s strength lies in its merchant-first focus and developer-friendly APIs.

 


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