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IMF Warnings Renew Market Jitters

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Sentiment towards the global economy was dealt a numbing blow during trading on Tuesday following the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) gloomy outlook on global growth which consequently dented risk appetite.

These meek outlooks come at a time when the violent combination of stubbornly low commodity price and ongoing China woes has persistently exposed other nations to major downside risks.

With the horrible cocktail of ongoing global instabilities potentially sabotaging any real recovery in global growth and blurring economic outlooks, it seems likely that the IMF will slash growth forecasts once again at the next meeting in Washington.
 
The logical steps to mitigating the headwinds of slowing global growth in a normal market environment may be to unleash further accommodative monetary policy, but recent market reactions from central bank intervention have almost exacerbated the situation.

We live in a period of negative rate policies where unorthodox central bank interventions have severely warped the financial markets, only leaving investors more anxious.

Confidence towards the global economy was already low and with the IMF’s fears adding to the mixture of falling oil prices, Brexit fears, China concerns and emerging market weakness, investors may be encouraged to scatter from riskier assets.
 
Stock markets were left vulnerable on Tuesday and concluded surrendering to the bears as depressed oil prices chipped away at risk appetite.

Europe, Asia and American markets descended into the red territory following the IMF’s timid outlook on global growth that renewed a sharp wave of risk aversion.

With anxiety mounting ahead of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday forcing investors to flee from riskier assets, stock could be poised to decline further with Asia leading the selloff as risk aversion boosts appetite for the safe-haven Japanese Yen.
 
FOMC Minutes in Focus‎
Investors may direct their attention towards the heavily anticipated FOMC minutes on Wednesday which could offer additional clarity on interest rate hike timings in 2016. In recent weeks sentiment towards the US economy was ripped in various directions following the clash of stances between hawkish Fed officials and the dovish Janet Yellen and today may offer some light as to why. 

Although data from the States continues to display signs of recovery, it seems clear that global developments dictate when or if the Fed will be raising US rates in 2016.

Sentiment is bearish towards the Dollar and with the latest comments from the IMF eroding any expectations over the Fed taking action in Q2, bearish investors have been provided a platform to attack.

The Dollar Index remains bearish on the daily timeframe and may be set to depreciate further if the FOMC minutes hint at a dovish tone or even fail to provide any direction on US rate hikes.

From a technical standpoint, prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the downside. Previous support at 95.50 may transform into a dynamic resistance which could trigger a further decline towards 94.00.
 ‎
WTI Crude Challenges $35
WTI experienced a technical bounce during trading on Tuesday which had nothing to do with an improved sentiment towards the heavily oversupplied commodity.

The lingering impact of Saudi Arabia’s unexpected comments on the success of an output freeze deal on Iran’s unlikely participation has left prices vulnerable to further losses.

With Iran remaining defiant on any talks of a production freeze, while currently boosting output to 4mbpd, any real recovery in prices could be curbed.

The sentiment is bearish towards WTI and with expectations mounting that the Doha meeting may conclude unsuccessful amid the conflict of interests, sellers could exploit this opportunity to send prices lower.
 
From a technical standpoint, WTI is bearish as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA and the breakdown below $35 has opened a path towards $30.
 
China in The Picture
China Caixin Services PMI exceeded expectations earlier this morning, but sentiment remains bearish towards the Chinese economy regardless with an increasing focus on its ability to maintaining the 6.5% GDP target for 2016.

Investors should keep in mind that in March data from Beijing followed a negative trajectory, while the elevated fears of a faster deceleration in economic momentum ensured the China markets remained depressed.

Although the nation is currently engaged in a mission to transform into an economy that prospers on global demand, China export-reliant countries continue to feel the pain.

By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM


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E-Financial

BVN Enrollment Up 6.87 Percent to 67.84m in 2025 – NIBSS

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Bank Verification Number (BVN) enrollments in the country rose by 6.87 per cent , or 4.36 million, to 67.84 million as at the end of December 2025 from 63.48 million in the corresponding period of the preceding year, according to latest data released by the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS).

BVN Enrollment Up 6.87 Percent to 67.84m in 2025 - NIBSS

This means that a total number of 4.36 million BVN enrolments were recorded between the end of December 2024 and the end of last year.

The BVN scheme was launched on February 14, 2014 by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in collaboration with the Bankers’ Committee, NIBSS and the German firm, Dermalog, with the aim of capturing biometrics of all bank customers and giving each bank customer a unique 11-digit identity number (BVN) that can be verified across the Nigerian banking industry.

Lamido Sanusi, governor of the CBN, at the time, said at the event that the BVN scheme would enable the apex bank to significantly reduce incidents of fraud and money laundering in the banking industry and also help accelerate financial inclusion by opening up opportunities for credit to millions of Nigerians who do not have a standard means of identification.

In October 2017, the CBN released a regulatory framework for BVN operations and Watchlist for the financial system. It stated that the Watchlist comprises a database of bank customers identified by their BVNs, who have been involved in confirmed fraudulent activities in the Nigerian banking industry.

An analysis of the latest NIBSS data shows that BVN enrollment maintained an upward trend in the last five years, rising from 51.90 million in 2021 to 56.90 million and 60.12 million in 2022 and 2023 respectively, before hitting 63.48 million in 2024 and 67.84 in 2025.

Analysts attribute the rise in BVN enrolments in recent years to policy measures introduced by the CBN as part of its efforts to tackle fraud.

For instance, on December 1, 2023, the apex bank issued a circular directing Deposit money banks (DMBs) Non-interest banks, Payment Service Banks, other financial institutions and mobile operators, to ensure that all funded bank accounts or wallets, without BVN or National Identification Number (NIN) are placed on “Post No Debit or Credit,” by April 1, 2024.


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Fidelity Bank Completes N500Bn Capital Raise ahead of Deadline

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Fidelity Bank Plc said it has raised the required minimum share capital for lenders with international authorisation, boosting its capital base as Nigerian lenders race to comply with tougher regulatory requirements scheduled to end by March 2026.

Fidelity Bank Completes N500Bn Capital Raise ahead of Deadline

Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, GMD, Fidelity Bank

The push-up in its eligible capital, raised through a private placement, effectively placed Fidelity Bank among lenders that have successfully scaled through the regulatory mandate.

The Lagos-based bank, in a disclosure on the Nigerian Exchange on Tuesday, said the offer, which opened and closed on December 31, 2025, was approved by the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Proceeds from the transaction lift Fidelity’s eligible capital to about N564.5 billion from N305.5 billion, subject to final regulatory approvals.

The private placement was carried out under a mandate granted by shareholders at an extraordinary general meeting on February 6, 2025, authorising the bank to issue up to 20 billion ordinary shares.

Fidelity did not disclose the pricing or investor mix for the transaction.

The fundraising caps an aggressive capital-raising drive by Fidelity over the past two years. In 2024, the lender raised N175.85 billion through a public offer and rights issue, which brought its eligible capital to N305.5 billion. That left a shortfall of about N194.5 billion relative to the new minimum capital threshold.

Nigeria’s central bank in 2024 announced a sweeping recapitalisation programme aimed at strengthening the banking system, raising the minimum capital for commercial banks with international authorisation to N500 billion.

The apex bank mandated an increment in capital for national banks, pushing it to N200 billion and N50 billion for regional banks. The 24‑month compliance window ends on March 31, 2026, a regulation that’s triggering a wave of equity issuances, merger talks, and balance-sheet restructuring across the sector.

Fidelity’s latest capital raise places it above the regulatory floor, potentially easing pressure on the bank as peers continue to tap markets. The additional capital is also expected to support balance-sheet expansion, larger ticket lending, and resilience against macroeconomic shocks in Africa’s fourth-largest economy, which has been grappling with currency volatility, double-digit inflation, and elevated interest rates.

Analysts stated the scale and speed of this transaction validate Fidelity Bank’s standing among tier‑one lenders. Recently, Fitch Ratings affirmed the bank’s Long‑Term Issuer Default Rating at ‘B’ and upgraded its National Long‑Term Rating to ‘A+(nga)’, citing stronger capital buffers and improved profitability.

Fitch also recognised the bank’s expanding franchise, sound fundamentals, and healthy foreign‑currency liquidity, noting it was Nigeria’s sixth‑largest lender by assets at the end of 2024.


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Kuda Microfinance Bank Releases ‘My Year on Kuda’ 2025 Financial Recap

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Kuda Microfinance Bank has unveiled the 2025 edition of “My Year on Kuda,” its annual recap providing customers with personalised insights into their spending, saving, and money management habits from the previous year.

Kuda Microfinance Bank Releases 'My Year on Kuda' 2025 Financial Recap

Kuda Microfinance Bank

The tool analyses transaction data across categories like transfers, card payments, online purchases, and bills, revealing patterns such as highest-spending months, biggest payments, saving frequency, and savings from Kuda’s 25 free monthly transfers. Customers can compare 2025 activity against 2024, including income versus expenditure.

In an era of inflation and economic uncertainty, the recap promotes financial literacy by highlighting responsible borrowing via Kuda Overdraft usage, including access frequency, amounts borrowed, and repayment patterns.

Customer-shared screenshots on X reflect national trends: Nigeria recorded over 2.2 billion electronic transactions worth ₦285 trillion in Q1 2025, up 20 percent year-on-year, with POS terminals driving the shift to cashless commerce.

Kuda Group CEO Babs Ogundeyi, in the recap’s opening video, urged users: “Before you carry on with January, this is the perfect time to see everything you did with your money on Kuda last year and learn something.”

The feature underscores Kuda’s focus on actionable insights to help Nigerians navigate evolving personal finance amid shifting earning and spending behaviours.


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