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Nigeria Inch into ‘Africa Country of Future’ Top 10
Despite a well articulated policy designed by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, to see Nigeria among the 20 leading global economies in 2020, the country continues to titer in development strides.
Although, variously described as one of the ‘fastest’ emerging economies in Africa and projected to surpass even the continent’s power house, South Africa in the next 24 months, poor infrastructure, insecurity and other economic potholes hinders real progress.
However, its battered image got a boost recently as fDi magazine recently named it in the 2013-2014 “African Country of the Future” list for the first time which has consistently seen South Africa, Morocco and Mauritius topping the list.
The list has South Africa crowned as the Country of the Future, with Morocco and Mauritius coming in second and third respectively.
Nigeria and Botswana are the two new entrants to the Future country list, which has South Africa, Morocco and Mauritius leading the pack. Egypt continues to do great in the index despite unrest in the past two years leading to the ousters of two presidents – Hosni Mubarak and Mohammed Morsi.
Elsewhere, Nigeria trails South Africa in the “Economic Potential category.”
Despite major issues such as corruption, security and infrastructure inadequacies blighting the country in recent years, Nigeria has seen its GDP almost treble since the turn of the century.
According to the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission’s submission for fDi’s African Countries of the Future, the Nigerian government is keenly aware that major issues need to be tackled in order for the country to unlock its potential. To address this, it says the government has “implemented various improvement measures in order to reach its goal of being one of the world’s 20 largest economies by 2020.”
The report notes that following a slight decline in FDI in 2009/10, investments into Nigeria increased 41 per cent in 2011 and a further 20per cent in 2012. The oil industry is a dominant feature of the Nigerian economy, though the communications sector is also a strong area of growth.
According to fDi Markets, FDI in the communications sector accounted for one-quarter of all investments in the Nigeria in 2012, and as penetration levels remain relatively low in this large and growing consumer market, this sector continues to offer huge opportunities to existing and new players alike.
South Africa is top of the Economic Potential table. The country’s GDP stands at more than $5.8bn and it is the largest economy in Africa. South Africa has attracted more R&D investments than other African country and accounts for the largest number of patents registered in the continent.
Exports from the country increased 24per cent in 2011 whereas imports increased 18% when compared to 2010 figures, and both were more than 13per cent higher than 2008 levels.
A new entrant into the top 10 for Economic Potential, Kenya ranked third thanks largely to its strong performance in FDI attraction. Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, was the fastest growing African city for FDI between 2009 and 2012 and was second only to Johannesburg as a destination for FDI in 2012.
Many initiatives are currently being developed to drive the Kenyan economy and in turn encourage investors into the country.
In its submission for fDi’s African Countries of the Future, KenInvest said: “The development of the national investment policy… is aimed at streamlining the investment promotion and facilitation process in Kenya to make it simpler. Full implementation of the… new constitution is on its own expected to increase the level of foreign participation in the country”.
A well-administered country by regional standards, Ghana ranks fourth in the Economic Potential category of fDi’s African Countries of the Future 2013/14.
In the past few years, Ghana has attracted its largest ever FDI project following the discovery of major offshore oil reserves in 2007.
In July 2009, South African company New Alpha Refinery announced plans to construct a new $6bn oil refinery in Accra in what will be the largest refinery in West Africa.
With production set to begin in 2015, the refinery should initially produce 200,000 barrels of oil per day with a view to eventually doubling capacity.
The top 10 countries include: South Africa, Morocco, Mauritius, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Botswana, Tunisia and Namibia.
New Horizons Nigeria has launched a N50 million initiative aimed at transforming 21 Almajiri children into skilled computer technicians within 90 days, to tackle youth unemployment and harness human potential.
The Almajiri-to-Tech programme, officially launched in Abuja on Monday, provides participants with full training, meals, clothing, tools, and logistics support, all fully funded.
Speaking at the launch, the Chief Executive Officer of New Horizons, Tim Akano, said the programme represents a new journey in the history of Nigeria by restoring the original purpose of the Almajiri system, which he described as “children sent out to seek knowledge.”
“The word Almajiri comes from an Arabic term meaning emigrant and seeker of knowledge. Historically, children were sent to learn morals, responsibility, and skills to add value to society,” Akano said.
He added that the disruption of this system during colonial times forced many children onto the streets, a challenge that persists today.
Akano highlighted the urgency of addressing the Almajiri issue, noting that there are an estimated 15 million Almajiris in the country, with a population growth rate of around three per cent annually.
“If we do not solve this problem as a country, we are sitting on a time bomb,” he warned.
According to him, the programme focuses on hands-on technical skills rather than theory. Trainees will learn to repair mobile phones, laptops, televisions, radios, standing fans, and other electronic devices, as well as build inverter batteries using recycled electronic waste.
“We are not teaching theory. We are teaching practical skills you can use to earn a living,” Akano said, stressing that the programme will not interfere with the participants’ Quranic education.
“We are still going to allow you, within the period of learning. Your learning computer here is not stopping your Quranic education.
“You still have time within our space here. Whenever you want to go and pray, you can pray, then come back to class,” the CEO stressed.
He added that participants will also receive daily meals, water, T-shirts identifying them as technicians-in-training, and access to all necessary tools and equipment throughout the 90-day programme.
Akano said the initiative is part of a larger mission by New Horizons Nigeria, which has spent the past 21 years training about 100,000 Nigerians annually in IT and related skills.
He said the new programme aims to “take human genius off the streets and convert it into human capital, enabling these youths to contribute meaningfully to the economy.”
He added that equipping Almajiris with skills could add 15 million people to Nigeria’s workforce and potentially increase the country’s GDP by as much as $20 billion, stressing that productivity depends on practical skills and opportunity.
“Everything that can be taught can be learned. If someone can memorize the Quran cover to cover, there is nothing that cannot be done. What they lack is information, opportunity, and infrastructure, and we are providing all of that,” Akano said.
Akano also stressed that the initiative is designed to inspire other organizations and government agencies to replicate similar programmes across the country.
“This is not just about 21 children; it is about showing Nigeria what is possible when resources meet intention and planning.
“If we succeed in empowering these Almajiris, we demonstrate that the country can turn social challenges into economic opportunities. It’s a blueprint for Nigeria’s future,” he said, noting that the initiative combines social reform, technical education, and economic empowerment.
Also speaking, one of the trainees, Fatima Umar, appreciated the organisers and promised to maximise the opportunity.
“We’ll make you proud of us. We have nothing to say here but to thank and appreciate you. May Almighty Allah continue to guide and protect you,” Umar said.
International Monetary Fund has upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 economic growth projection to 4.4 per cent, reflecting improved macroeconomic stability and sustained reforms.
IMF
The January 2026 World Economic Outlook Update forecasts Nigeria’s growth trajectory at 4.1 per cent in 2024, 4.2 per cent in 2025, and 4.4 per cent in 2026—a 0.2 percentage point increase from the October 2025 estimate.
This aligns with sub-Saharan Africa’s projected 4.6 per cent expansion in 2026 and 2027, driven by regional stabilisation efforts.
Globally, the IMF anticipates 3.3 per cent growth amid resilient conditions tempered by trade policy shifts and technology investments. For Nigeria, declining energy prices—expected to fall seven per cent due to weak demand—pose risks, though OPEC+ coordination and China’s stockpiling provide support.
Despite the optimism, downside risks persist from Middle East and Ukraine tensions, protectionism, high debt, and fiscal deficits. The Fund recommends rebuilding fiscal buffers, ensuring central bank independence, and limiting temporary fiscal measures to maintain stability.
Nigeria’s success hinges on consistent reforms and resilience against domestic and global shocks, the IMF concluded.
Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reports that Nigeria’s crude oil production, excluding condensate, dropped by 0.7 per cent to 1.486 million barrels per day (mbpd) in November 2025 from 1.496 mbpd in October.
OPEC
The figure, drawn from secondary sources in OPEC’s December 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report, fell short of Nigeria’s 1.5 mbpd quota. Direct communication data showed output at 1.436 mbpd, up from October’s 1.401 mbpd, but still below target.
Nigeria produces around 196,028 bpd of condensate, excluded from quota calculations per Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission figures. Year-on-year, November’s output marked a slight gain over 1.417 mbpd in November 2024.
Expert Cites Insecurity, Governance Gaps
Petroleum economics expert Wumi Iledare described the quota miss as unsurprising, blaming persistent insecurity, an ageing oil basin lacking new finds, and unoffered hydrocarbon blocks. Governance shortcomings and policy uncertainty further erode investor confidence, he noted.
Selective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act worsens the situation, with Nigeria needing a single authoritative leader for the sector rather than multiple proxies, Mr Iledare stressed. The country has struggled to consistently hit OPEC targets for years.
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