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Opinion: Is Nigeria poised for an Economic Rebound?

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
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It has certainly been a lively year for the Nigerian economy as it continues to diversify away from oil reliance while juggling with a currency crisis and Dollar shortages created by low oil prices.

Although the nation still remains exposed to external risks, there has been some optimism over the economic landscape stabilizing, with the improving macro fundamentals fueling speculations of an economic rebound by the end of 2017.

Early signs of recovery can already be seen across Gross Domestic Growth, falling inflation and foreign exchange rate stability.

Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF), who previously warned of a potential economic collapse back in March, has turned positive and projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow at a faster pace than South Africa’s in 2018.

The current speed of Nigeria’s recovery can be described as slow and steady, with the macro-fundamentals gradually stabilizing. Inflation has cooled for the fifth consecutive month in June at 16.1% illustrating further signs of price stability while manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities have both moved in a positive trajectory.

The Naira continues to display resilience against the US Dollar this year, with prices currently trading around 363 on the black market exchange. Although the repeated intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria has heavily attributed to the Naira’s recovery and stability, confidence over Nigeria’s economic recovery continues to play a leading role.

While the local currency may experience further stability in the coming months as the Central Bank of Nigeria intervenes, the multiple exchanges have left the foreign exchanges divided and continue to pose a risk to investment.

Rather than using the foreign exchange reserves to support the Naira, the CBN should work towards cleaning up the multiple exchanges, while allowing the natural forces of supply and demand to determine the Naira’s true equilibrium value.

Although I remain optimistic over Nigeria resurging from an economic meltdown and eventually breaking away from its dependence on oil as an engine for growth, there are still external risks which could present headwinds on the road to recovery.

The greatest threat to Nigeria’s current recovery in the medium to longer term, is depressed oil prices. Falling oil has the ability to directly impact the nation’s government revenues, external reserves, and stability of the nation’s foreign exchange market.

Another risk in the pipeline that could pressure Nigeria’s recovery is OPEC’s recent decision to cap the nation’s oil production to 1.8 million barrels per day, especially when the budget proposal is based on 2.2 million barrels per day at $44.50 per barrel. It should be kept in mind that restricting production not only poses a threat to the budget but also is seen as a disincentive for investment.

Investors should pay close attention to higher US interest rates which have the ability to boost the US Dollar ultimately pressuring emerging markets, with Nigeria fitting into the category. While the threat of capital outflows from a strengthening US Dollar may expose the Nigerian economy to downside shocks, it should also be kept in mind that a portion of the government revenues is recouped from oil which is priced in Dollar.

In the longer term, an appreciating Dollar from higher US rates will not only diminish the value of the government’s working revenue, but also enforce pressure on the nation’s black market exchange.

The Central Bank of Nigeria is likely to remain in the spotlight in the third quarter of 2017 as investors wait to see whether interest rates will be hiked or trimmed. Nigeria’s ongoing mission to diversify from oil reliance, as well as a sharp drop in oil which triggered a currency crisis, have encouraged the CBN to maintain its key interest rates at 14% in July. While the central bank is likely to remain on standby in the short term as Nigeria nurses its wounds, a rate cut could be on the cards in the medium to longer term if inflation continues to follow a negative trajectory and other forms of hard economic data improve.

Focusing on the fiscal side, this still remains a gray are with the nation’s long-running infrastructure problems compounding to its woes. With the overall projected fiscal deficit tagged at N2.36 trillion one can only hope that the approved budget offers a helping hand to the nation.

Nigeria is in urgent need for robust infrastructure as major roads are in poor condition; the power sector remains a cause for concern while health and education need to be revamped. Rectifying these issues has the ability to not only create jobs but also support economic growth and boost investor confidence.

As we head deeper into the third quarter of 2017, market players may closely observe hard domestic data at home to gauge the nation’s health and verify if an economic recovery really is on the cards for 2017. Nigeria’s mission to diversify away from oil reliance while recovering from an economic deceleration remains an ongoing quest and it will be interesting to see how far the nation has progressed by year end.


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E-Financial

CBN Proposes 30-Member Mediation Panel for Loan Disputes

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released an exposure draft proposing the establishment of a 30-member Mediation and Dispute Resolution Panel (MDRP) aimed at strengthening consumer protection and boosting confidence in Nigeria’s financial system.

CBN Proposes 30-Member Mediation Panel for Loan Disputes

Pic credit….aequitasjuris.com

According to a circular signed by Paul Oluikpe, acting director of the Development Finance Advisory Department of the CBN, the establishment of the MDRP, is in furtherance of efforts to strengthen the financial ecosystem, ensure compliance with extant legislation, and enhance the efficiency of financial intermediation.

The draft guidelines and modalities for the operation of the MDRP are in line with the Secured Transactions in Movable Assets (STMA) Act, 2017, which established a MDRP as the first recourse for mediation and settlement over any civil dispute which may arise between the creditor and the grantor in the course of implementing the Act.

The act also mandates the Governor of the Bank to issue guidelines that will set out the modalities and regulate the Panel’s functioning, among others. The circular further noted that the “MDRP is intended to provide a specialised, cost-effective platform for resolving disputes arising from creation, perfection and enforcement of security interests in movable assets.

“The key objective of the MDRP guidelines is to establish a clear and standardised procedure for managing STMA-related disputes, while ensuring transparency, fairness and efficiency to bolster confidence in the secured transactions in movable assets system.”

According to the draft guideline, the CBN will “appoint 30 persons from whom panels shall be constituted, with each panel comprising 3 members.

The members shall serve on a rotational basis for an initial term of four years.

“Upon satisfactory performance, determined through an evaluation by the CBN, members may be reappointed for an additional term of four years. The tenure of members shall not exceed two terms of four years each, which need not be consecutive.

“Members shall be professionals with a minimum of 10 years of relevant experience in any of law, banking, finance, mediation, arbitration, alternative dispute resolution, or financial regulation. Members shall be persons of proven integrity, professional competence and sound judgement.”


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NDIC Seeks Court Nods to Liquidate 89 Failed Banks

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) said that it has commenced the process of liquidating 89 closed Microfinance Banks (MFBs) and Primary Mortgage Banks (PMBs).

NDIC Seeks Court Nods to Liquidate 89 Failed Banks

This followed their successful acquisition by new owners under the Purchase and Assumption (P&A) resolution model executed by the Corporation.

The corporation disclosed this in a statement on Wednesday, signed by Hawwau Gambo, head of Communication and Public Affairs.

It explained that the affected institutions were part of the 179 MFBs and four PMBs whose licences were revoked by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on May 22 and 23, 2023.

According to the corporation, under the P&A arrangement, 89 new eligible institutions were subsequently licensed by the CBN to assume the assets and liabilities of the defunct banks.

It noted that the new banks had since commenced operations under different names.

“To legally conclude the liquidation process, the NDIC, in its capacity as liquidator, will file applications at various divisions of the Federal High Court for orders of dissolution of the closed banks and its discharge as liquidator,” the statement said.

NDIC added that the move was in line with provisions of its enabling Act and other relevant laws guiding bank resolution in the country.

The corporation said the exercise would ensure proper closure of the defunct institutions while safeguarding financial system stability.

It reiterated its commitment to protecting depositors and sustaining public confidence in the banking sector.

The affected banks were located across several states, including Lagos, Anambra, Oyo, Kaduna, Kano and the Federal Capital Territory.

 


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IMF Downgrades Nigeria’s GDP Outlook, Warns of Rising Risks

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Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow at 4.1 per cent in 2026 and strengthen slightly to 4.3 per cent in 2027, even as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict is clouding the global outlook.

The projections, contained in the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook released at the ongoing IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC, the United States, show a relatively stable trajectory for Nigeria despite rising external risks, particularly from energy market disruptions triggered by the war.

The IMF had earlier projected stronger growth of about 4.4 per cent in early January before the latest global shock, reflecting the impact of domestic reforms and improving macroeconomic conditions.

While Nigeria’s growth outlook remains steady, the IMF warned that countries like Nigeria face growing vulnerability from higher global energy prices, inflation pressures and tighter financial conditions.

The war, which has disrupted oil supply routes and pushed up fuel costs, is already feeding into domestic inflation and cost-of-living pressures.

Recent data show petrol and diesel prices have surged sharply since the conflict began, straining households and businesses.

Although higher crude prices may support government revenues, the broader macroeconomic impact remains mixed, with inflation and exchange rate pressures posing downside risks.

The IMF also cut global growth to 3.1 per cent in 2026, with only a modest recovery to 3.2 per cent in 2027 as the Middle East conflict disrupts trade and energy markets.

Emerging markets and developing economies, including Nigeria, are expected to grow at 3.9 per cent this year before recovering to 4.2 per cent in 2027, reflecting the uneven impact of the shock across regions.

Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.4 per cent in 2027, placing Nigeria slightly below the regional average but still among the stronger performers.

South Africa, the continent’s largest economy, continues to lag with growth forecast at one per cent in 2026, rising modestly to 1.3 per cent in 2027.

Among major economies, the U.S. is projected to grow by 2.3 per cent in 2026 before easing to 2.1 per cent in 2027, while China is projected to grow by 4.4 per cent and four per cent respectively.

India remains the fastest-growing major economy at 6.5 per cent through 2027, while the Euro Area continues to struggle with weak growth, particularly in Germany and France.

The IMF warned that many developing economies, particularly energy importers, remain vulnerable to rising costs and external shocks.

The IMF urged central banks to prioritise price stability, warning against easing policy prematurely in response to supply shocks. It stressed the need for clear communication and strong institutional independence.

On fiscal policy, the Fund cautioned against broad-based energy subsidies, describing them as costly and inefficient. It recommended a targeted and temporary support for vulnerable households, funded within existing budgets.

The IMF also warned against the use of trade restrictions to address external imbalances, noting that such measures tend to weaken output without resolving underlying issues. It called instead for coordinated global action to stabilise trade and restore energy supply chains.

 


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