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Opinion: Nigeria Strides into Q4

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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

Nigeria displayed its resilience in the global arena on repeated occasions this year, by confronting a currency crisis, navigating depressed oil prices and rebounding from an economic deceleration.

With the nation currently in the process of recovering from its worst slump in 25 years, despite the headwinds created from both external and internal risk, the overall outlook remains highly encouraging.

Annual inflation has eased considerably, while core fundamentals suggest that the economic landscape continues to stabilize. With the driver behind Nigeria’s economic rebound fuelled by sustainable sources such as manufacturing, agriculture and trade, it is clear why sentiment is slowly turning bullish.

Now that Nigeria has shown the world that it resilient, the central bank is likely to direct its focus towards mitigating inflation and further supporting the local currency.

The fact that Nigeria managed to grow 0.55% in Q2, despite suffering a painful contraction for five consecutive quarters, highlights the tenacious nature of the nation and prospects for future growth. Consumer prices also eased to 16.01% in August, pointing to signs of improving price stability.

While there is still some distance to go before inflation falls back within the Central Bank of Nigeria’s 6-9% target, improved Dollar supply which has eased inflation by reducing import costs, may play a part in inflationary pressures becoming a theme of the past.

Although the combination of accelerating growth and falling inflation may encourage the CBN to cut benchmark interest rates in the future, it is only one element of the equation.  While an interest rate cut is likely to boost business confidence and support the nation further, attention should be directed towards the fiscal side.

Taking a look at the fiscal side of the equation, it can be said that Nigeria is in dire need of a national infrastructure plan. Major roads remain in poor condition, bridges and railways need to be renovated and education needs an overhaul.

It should be kept in mind that a solid and stable infrastructure yields a healthy economy, while a weak foundation limits growth and exposes the nation to downside risks. Rectifying these issues has the ability to not only create employment but it would also support economic growth – ultimately boosting investor confidence.

On a positive note, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently reported that Nigeria recorded an export rise of 73.5% in the second quarter of 2017.

There was a significant rise in non-oil exports with agricultural goods increasing in the country’s foreign exchange earnings. With agriculture remaining the backbone of Nigeria, this report was highly encouraging, especially when you consider how the nation has an ongoing quest to diversify from oil reliance.

Focusing on the foreign exchange outlook, the Naira held its ground against the Dollar in September, with prices trading within a narrow range on the parallel market exchange. The implantation of the Investors and Exporters (FX) Window has bolstered confidence over Nigeria’s outlook and this may be reflected in the Naira’s current stability.

The Naira’s price action also suggests that the increased supply of foreign exchange into the largest economy inAfrica has attracted investors, ultimately creating another wall of stability in the FX markets.

While the outlook for the Naira is starting to look encouraging amid the stabilizing fundamentals, markets will still be observing how Nigeria tackles the system of multiple exchange rates. With the central bank aiming to erase the multiple exchanges, which would require an official devaluation, it becomes a matter of when and how.

Resurgent oil prices have positively impacted the nation’s government revenues and even reinforced the stability of foreign exchange markets. Investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about OPEC’s ability to rebalance the market long-term, as this was reflected in WTI Crude which appreciated towards $52.

With further upside on the cards in the short to medium term amid the optimism, the Nigerian government is likely to receive more revenue. It should be kept in mind that Oil prices still pose a significant external risk to Nigeria in the longer term, especially when considering how fragile the current OPEC supply cut deal really is.

With OPEC requesting Nigeria to cut production by 1.8 million barrels a day, this complicates matters, as the Federal government’s 2017 budget is based on the production of 2.2 million barrels per day at $44.50 per barrel. A situation where Nigeria limits production and oil prices depreciate, could pose a serious threat to the budget, ultimately punishing economic growth.

As the final quarter of 2017 gets underway, markets will be closely watching to see if the stabilizing economic conditions prompt the Central Bank of Nigeria to cut interest rates.

A rate cut will be one the first steps of many the nation takes on in its ongoing mission to recover economically, diversify and continue to rattle the global arena.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Business

Police Says Victims Enable Cyber Attacks Out of Ignorance

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Mr Uche Ifeanyi, commissioner of Police in charge of the Nigeria Police Force National Cyber Crime Centre (NPF-NCCC),  said on Friday that most cyber attacks occur because victims act out of ignorance.

Police Says Victims Enable Cyber Attacks Out of Ignorance

He spoke in Abuja at the opening of an online cybercrime awareness campaign themed “Odogwu No Dey Hide Him Face,” organised to educate and empower communities about online safety and cyber hygiene.

“Studies reveal that the majority of cyber attacks are initiated or enabled by victims due to lack of knowledge.

“Personal information is invaluable and must be protected at all times.

“Just as we maintain physical health, we must also maintain a healthy digital lifestyle,” he added, stressing that simple cyber hygiene practices could greatly reduce the risk of becoming a victim.

He urged the public not to disclose confidential information to unauthorised persons and to use strong, unique passwords, enable multi-factor authentication, and apply security safeguards on digital devices.

“Keep personal information private, avoid suspicious links, and regularly update software or system patches,” he said, adding that antivirus programmes and firewalls were essential for online safety.

Ifeanyi warned against falling for “free gifts” online.

“If it sounds too good to be true, it most likely is fraud,” he said, advising caution with urgent or suspicious messages.

He also urged internet users to verify information before sharing to avoid spreading fake news, emphasising that cybercriminals could exploit everyone regardless of age, occupation, or social class.

Vincent Olatunji, director-general, National Data Protection Commission (NDPC), commended NPF-NCCC for its efforts and said the campaign theme was commendable.

He noted the importance of educating people on legitimate wealth and safe internet use.

Olatunji said that the fight against cybercrime required collective effort, warning that the risks were increasing daily as more people connected to the internet across Nigeria.


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Firm Enhances its Security Awareness Platform with SCORM and PDF Support

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Kaspersky has introduced an update to its Automated Security Awareness Platform, adding full support for PDF and SCORM (Sharable Content Object Reference Model) – the industry-standard protocol for deploying and managing e-learning content.

The enhancement enables organisations to build fully customised cybersecurity training programmes that reflect their infrastructure, risk profile, and internal policies, while continuing to benefit from Kaspersky’s expert-driven security content and phishing simulations.

According to the Kaspersky report titled “Redefining the Human Factor in Cybersecurity”, employees responding to phishing attacks was one of the main causes of cyber incidents in companies worldwide, accounting for 21% of cases among other reasons.

At the same time, additional Kaspersky research reveals that social engineering attacks are predicted to increase more than any other type in the nearest future, with 87% of respondents believing that social engineering attacks will become even more effective due to the use of AI tools.

The new Kaspersky Automated Security Awareness Platform (Kaspersky ASAP) update directly addresses several persistent challenges such as reducing the number of human-related incidents, cutting time spent on managing training programmes, decreasing regulatory and compliance risks, and minimising potential legal or reputational damage stemming from cybersecurity breaches.

With the new SCORM support, the platform becomes even more flexible: companies can now upload, track, and manage their own SCORM-based learning materials directly within the system. In addition, companies can accelerate their programmes by using easier-to-create PDF-formats.

This allows organisations to tailor training to their specific technology stacks and emerging threats targeting their industry or region. Businesses that have already invested in third-party SCORM courses or internal learning development can now seamlessly reuse their existing modules, protecting their prior investments while strengthening their cybersecurity posture.

The combination of Kaspersky’s embedded content built on real cases uncovered by the company’s world-class experts with customers’ PDF materials or SCORM modules enables a true best-of-breed approach to human risk management.

Organisations can supplement Kaspersky’s up-to-date cyberattack scenarios with internal policies, unique workflows, and industry-specific lessons, ensuring training resonates with employees and reflects real operational challenges.

“Human behaviour remains one of the most unpredictable elements in cybersecurity and also one of the easiest for attackers to exploit. By adding SCORM support to Kaspersky Automated Security Awareness Platform, we’re giving organisations the flexibility to build training programmes that truly match their internal realities.

“Combined with Kaspersky’s expert-driven content and real-world attack data, this update empowers companies to create more adaptive, relevant, and impactful awareness programmes than ever before,” comments Svetlana Kalashnikova, Security Awareness expert at Kaspersky.


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NDPC, 60 DPAs Collaborate on Enforcing Privacy Rights in the Use of Al

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Nigeria Data Protection Commission (NDPC) has joined sixty (60) other Data Protection Authorities (DPAs) in endorsing the “Joint Statement on Al-Generated Imagery and the Protection of Privacy.”

NDPC, 60 DPAs Collaborate on Enforcing Privacy Rights in the Use of Al

NDPC

The Joint Statement was coordinated by the International Enforcement Cooperation Working Group (IEWG) of the Global Privacy Assembly.

This underscores the growing concerns regarding the privacy risks posed by Artificial Intelligence tools capable of generating realistic images and videos of identifiable individuals.

The Joint Statement highlights concerns over the misuse of Al-powered tools to create non-consensual imagery, defamatory content, and other harmful materials, particularly affecting children and vulnerable groups.

It calls on organisations to implement strong safeguards, ensure transparency, provide effective content removal mechanisms, and comply fully with applicable data protection laws.

The current effort forms part of a continuum of steps being taken by Nigeria to ensure the responsible use of Al. It will be recalled that the Honourable Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Dr ‘Bosun Tijani, led the initiative for the development of the National Al Strategy.

The NDPC also issued the General Application and Implementation Directive (GAID), which, amongst others, mandates privacy by design and privacy by default in the development and deployment of Al tools.

The National Commissioner/CEO of the NDPC, Dr Vincent Olatunji, has directed that the Nigeria Data Protection Act (NDP Act) Compliance Audit Returns (CAR) by data controllers and processors of major importance will serve as a yardstick for monitoring and evaluating responsible use of Al for data processing in Nigeria.


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