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Scary! Get Ready for $10 a Barrel Oil

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This is a very bad time for oil dependent country like Nigeria because a scary analysis in Bloomberg by Gary Shilling has predicted a further tumble in oil price,

According to Shilling, at about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107.

They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20.

Here’s why.

U.S. economic growth has averaged 2.3 percent a year since the recovery started in mid-2009.

That’s about half the rate you might expect in a rebound from the deepest recession since the 1930s.

Meanwhile, growth in China is slowing, is minimal in the euro zone and is negative in Japan.

Throw in the large increase in U.S. vehicle gas mileage and other conservation measures and it’s clear why global oil demand is weak and might even decline.

At the same time, output is climbing, thanks in large part to increased U.S. production from hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling.

U.S. output rose by 15 percent in the 12 months through November from a year earlier, based on the latest data, while imports declined 4 percent.

Something else figures in the mix: The eroding power of the OPEC cartel. Like all cartels, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is designed to ensure stable and above- market crude prices. But those high prices encourage cheating, as cartel members exceed their quotas.

For the cartel to function, its leader — in this case, Saudi Arabia — must accommodate the cheaters by cutting its own output to keep prices from falling. But the Saudis have seen their past cutbacks result in market-share losses.

So the Saudis, backed by other Persian Gulf oil producers with sizable financial resources — Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — embarked on a game of chicken with the cheaters.

On Nov. 27, OPEC said that it wouldn’t cut output, sending oil prices off a cliff. The Saudis figure they can withstand low prices for longer than their financially weaker competitors, who will have to cut production first as pumping becomes uneconomical.

What is the price at which major producers chicken out and slash output? Whatever that price is, it is much lower than the $125 a barrel Venezuela needs to support its mismanaged economy. The same goes for Ecuador, Algeria, Nigeria, Iraq, Iran and Angola.

Saudi Arabia requires a price of more than $90 to fund its budget. But it has $726 billion in foreign currency reserves and is betting it can survive for two years with prices of less than $40 a barrel.

Furthermore, the price when producers chicken out isn’t necessarily the average cost of production, which for 80 percent of new U.S. shale oil production this year will be $50 to $69 a barrel, according to Daniel Yergin of energy consultant IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

Instead, the chicken-out point is the marginal cost of production, or the additional costs after the wells are drilled and the pipes are laid. Another way to think of it: It’s the price at which cash flow for an additional barrel falls to zero.

Last month, Wood Mackenzie, an energy research organization, found that of 2,222 oil fields surveyed worldwide, only 1.6 percent would have negative cash flow at $40 a barrel.

That suggests there won’t be a lot of chickening out at $40. Keep in mind that the marginal cost for efficient U.S. shale-oil producers is about $10 to $20 a barrel in the Permian Basin in Texas and about the same for oil produced in the Persian Gulf.

Also consider the conundrum financially troubled countries such as Russia and Venezuela find themselves in: They desperately need the revenue from oil exports to service foreign debts and fund imports. Yet, the lower the price, the more oil they need to produce and export to earn the same number of dollars, the currency used to price and trade oil.

With new discoveries, stability in parts of the Middle East and increasing drilling efficiency, global oil output will no doubt rise in the next several years, adding to pressure on prices. U.S. crude oil production is forecast to rise by 300,000 barrels a day during the next year from 9.1 million now.

Sure, the drilling rig count is falling, but it’s the inefficient rigs that are being idled, not the horizontal rigs that are the backbone of the fracking industry. Consider also Iraq’s recent deal with the Kurds, meaning that another 550,000 barrels a day will enter the market.

While supply climbs, demand is weakening. OPEC forecasts demand for its oil at a 14-year low of 28.2 million barrels a day in 2017, 600,000 less than its forecast a year ago and down from current output of 30.7 million. It also cut its 2015 demand forecast to a 12-year low of 29.12 million barrels.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reduced its 2015 global demand forecast for the fourth time in 12 months by 230,000 barrels a day to 93.3 million and sees supply exceeding demand this year by 400,000 barrels a day.

Although the 40 percent decline in U.S. gasoline prices since April 2014 has led consumers to buy more gas-guzzling SUVs and pick-up trucks, consumers during the past few years have bought the most efficient blend of cars and trucks ever.

At the same time, slowing growth in China and the shift away from energy-intensive manufactured exports and infrastructure to consumer services is depressing oil demand. China accounted for two-thirds of the growth in demand for oil in the past decade.

So look for more big declines in crude oil and related energy prices.

 


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Prateek Suri CEO Maser Meets Zambia’s Education Minister to Propel Student Housing and Education Projects

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Prateek Suri, CEO of MASER and recognized as the richest Indian entrepreneur in Africa, was welcomed this week by Zambia’s Education Minister, Hon. Douglas Munsaka Syakalima, for a high-level meeting in Lusaka that focused on student housing and broader education infrastructure initiatives.

The meeting, held at the Ministry of Education’s offices, opened with warm greetings and a presentation by Mr Suri detailing Maser’s plans to support Zambia’s rapidly scaling education sector. Suri, who led Maser to become Africa’s seventh unicorn, emphasized the company’s commitment to infrastructure that benefits students, educators, and communities across the continent.

Minister Syakalima underscored the urgency of addressing Zambia’s student accommodation gap, citing the country’s expanding net enrollment and the need for safe, affordable housing for tertiary students. Under his leadership, the Government has embarked on a bold infrastructure agenda: over 82 secondary schools already completed, 46 set to be finished in 2025, and 120 new institutions under construction, alongside 169 ECE hubs and 145 satellite centers to reach underserved areas.

During the meeting, Suri shared Maser’s vision for modern student housing built through public–private partnership models. He outlined a multi‑phase plan utilizing sustainable building design, digital infrastructure, and vocational training facilities integrated into these campuses. “Zambia’s youth deserve world-class learning environments,” Suri remarked. “Maser is prepared to leverage its experience to co-create impactful educational infrastructure.”

Minister Syakalima responded positively, stating, “We welcome the opportunity to collaborate with Maser. The CEO’s entrepreneurial success and the company’s commitment to Africa’s education development are exactly the kind of partnership we need to scale our infrastructure goals.”

Beyond housing, the dialogue extended to opportunities in blended learning, vocational skills, rural outreach, and digital inclusion. With Zambia implementing its forward‑looking 2023 Education Curriculum this year—including early childhood, primary, and Form 1 levels—the minister highlighted the need for supporting infrastructure at all levels to enable effective rollout.

Under Minister Syakalima’s tenure, the education sector has seen notable progress: 4,200 new teachers hired recently, bringing the total teacher workforce to over 40,000 in three years; strengthened focus on foundational learning via teacher training programmes like the “Catch Up Programme”; and ambitious expansion of school infrastructure across Zambia’s provinces.

Maser, co‑founded by Prateek Suri, transformed from an African startup in consumer electeonics and large infrastructure projects into a multi‑sector unicorn operating in real estate, renewable energy, mining and education technology. Its rapid rise and African focus have made Suri a leading figure in bolstering India–Africa economic relations.

As the richest Indian in Africa, Prateek Suri’s influence spans beyond business success—it represents growing bilateral investment aimed at credible, sustainable societal impact. His partnership with Zambia’s Ministry of Education signals a new era of cross-border collaboration in education infrastructure.

With both parties committing to inclusive planning and scalable implementation, the Maser‑Zambia dialogue could mark the beginning of transformative initiatives: from affordable student housing to cutting‑edge learning facilities, vocational training hubs, and digital classrooms.

In closing remarks on the significance of this dialogue, Suri stated, “Education infrastructure is the foundation for future growth. Our partnership with Minister Syakalima and the Government of Zambia is a testament to collective investment in youth, equity, and sustainable development.” Minister Syakalima echoed this optimism, saying that with strategic public–private investment, Zambia’s education sector is poised for a significant elevation.

This meeting lays the groundwork for collaboration that bridges government strategy and corporate innovation—ultimately aiming to empower Zambia’s students and accelerate national development.


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FirstBank Celebrates ₦1 Trillion Milestone in Instant Loans via AI-Powered Platforms

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FirstBank, a leading financial institution and provider of financial inclusion services in West Africa, announces the achievement of ₦1 trillion in cumulative instant digital loan disbursements.

This accomplishment further consolidates the Bank’s reputation for innovation, leadership in financial inclusion, and commitment to customer empowerment within.

Since its inaugural digital loan in August 2019, FirstBank has developed an unconventional and robust digital lending ecosystem designed with Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, to improve access to finance, especially to the high-risk customer segment.

The Bank created a multi- channel loan disbursement service that requires no collaterals, zero documentation and is void of human interactions. Through its FirstAdvance, FirstCredit and AgentCredit products, 1.5 million unique borrowers enjoyed instant and secure access to credit.

This is irrespective of whether they are salary earners, non-salary earners, or micro business owners. They also have the convenient options of accessing these loans through platforms such as *894# (FirstBank’s USSD service), FirstMobile, LitApp and the FirstMonie Agent App.

Regarding this milestone, Chuma Ezirim, Group Executive, e-Business & Retail Products at FirstBank, stated: “This success underscores our ongoing commitment to innovation and a customer-focused approach, which are central to FirstBank’s core values. Beyond achieving substantial figures, we remain dedicated to fostering opportunities for financial independence across Nigeria in particular, and in Africa at large.’’

He added, “We value the trust our customers place in us to support their financial aspirations. Our efforts to advance digital lending will persist, especially to the excluded and underserved customer segments, while effectively managing risks in the process.”

FirstBank currently disburses about N1 Billion daily in digital loans, demonstrating its commitment to fostering an inclusive, technology-driven future for Nigerians. By consistently investing in advanced technologies and developing customised financial solutions, the Bank seeks to improve the financial well-being of individuals and businesses across the nation.


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Mayor of London Commits to Deepening UK-Nigeria Ties in Tech, Creatives and Trade

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The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has successfully concluded his visit to Lagos, Nigeria, aimed at strengthening the UK-Nigeria economic relationship and celebrating the deep cultural ties, shared vibrancy, and global influence of two dynamic cities – London and Lagos.

This visit marked the growing importance of Nigeria as a key partner in the UK’s global trade and investment strategy, particularly in sectors such as fintech, innovation, and the creative economy.

Alongside the visit, the Mayor of London led a trade delegation of 27 London-based companies in fintech, enterprise technology, and sustainability, supported by the Mayor’s growth agency, London & Partners. Under the leadership of Howard Dawber OBE, Deputy Mayor for Business and Growth, the agency facilitated a series of high-level engagements in Nigeria.

The delegation connected with Nigerian policymakers, investors, and creatives through curated events aimed at fostering collaboration and unlocking new business opportunities across Africa.

This visit marked the first official trip by a sitting Mayor of London to sub-Saharan Africa, underscoring London’s commitment to building long-term, cross-sector partnerships that support inclusive growth, digital transformation, and cultural exchange.

Mayor Khan’s engagements in Lagos commenced with participation in a panel discussion at the “Bridging Borders: How London and Lagos Can Shape the Future of Global Tech” tech event where he highlighted how London and Lagos can jointly shape the future of global innovation and encouraged Nigerian tech businesses to invest in London.

The Mayor of London also attended the Lagos Canvas Reception, a celebration of Nigeria’s flourishing creative sector which he co-hosted with Mo Abudu at the Ebony Life place.

The reception celebrated the status of Lagos and London as cultural and creative industry powerhouses and looked to encourage even greater ties between the creative industry ecosystems in both cities.

From the arts to fashion, music and film – central to the UK-Nigeria Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership (ETIP) – which is expanding trade and unlocking new opportunities in the creative economy.

Wrapping up his visit to Lagos, Nigeria, the Mayor of London will continue his historic trade mission with stops in Accra, Johannesburg and Cape Town to bang the drum for the capital as a place for investment, innovation, and cultural exchange – strengthening ties with countries across the African continent for economic growth.

The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, said: “I am delighted to be visiting Nigeria and Africa this week – the first visit of its kind by a Mayor of London – to bang the drum for the capital and further develop the strong ties between our countries.

“Africa has the world’s fastest growing populations and is seeing major economic growth across many of its economies. Over the next decade there are huge opportunities to deepen partnerships with London. I will be working tirelessly throughout this visit to drive trade and investment across critical sectors including finance, education, health, tech creative and sustainability.

“Londoners of African heritage have played, and continue to play, a huge role in making London the greatest city in the world, and this trip is an opportunity to celebrate our shared heritage, history and culture with the African continent – as we build a better and fairer city for everyone.”

British Deputy High Commissioner in Lagos, Mr. Jonny Baxter, said: “The Mayor of London’s visit underscores the UK Government’s commitment to strengthening economic and cultural ties with Nigeria. From trade to fintech and fashion, our collaboration is driving innovation and growth.

“Through the UK-Nigeria Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership, we’re committed to unlocking new opportunities that benefit both our economies, and this visit is a powerful step forward in that journey of inclusive growth.”

UK Minister for Africa, Lord Collins of Highbury, said: “Sir Sadiq’s visit marks an exciting moment for the UK’s relationship with countries across Africa and is a strong demonstration of our commitment to deepening our ties with the continent.

“Strengthening our trade, investment, and cultural ties is not only vital for shared economic growth, but also for fostering long-term partnerships that are rooted in respect and open up opportunities for all.”


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