A new study showed the tablet market will witness decline in units’ shipment over the next five year from growing competition from larger smartphones and the prospect of new categories such as wearable devices diverting consumer spending.
The International Data Corporation (IDC) in its Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker, at the weekend, modestly lowered the previous tablet forecast for 2013 and beyond.
The company now expects worldwide tablet shipments to reach 227.4 million units in 2013, down from a previous forecast of 229.3 million although still 57.7% above 2012 shipments.
Despite the slight reduction for this year, IDC believes the market will continue to grow at a rapid pace and by 2017 IDC expects worldwide shipments to be nearly 407 million units.
The company also adjusted its regional outlook, with maturing markets such as the U.S. now expected to cede share more rapidly to emerging markets such as Asia/Pacific.
However, Rita Amuchienwa is the senior territory manager; (English) West Africa for Motorola Solutions told Nigeria CommunicationsWeek that communication gadgets like two-way radio are capable of competing with the regular smartphone market, especially now the company has digitized the devices.
Speaking during Motorola’s partners’ workshop in Lagos, she noted that, the Solutions offer users, “Opportunity to have one-to-many communication platform at the same time, which is not possible with the cell-phone. With just a dial you can connect fifty to one hundred people simultaneously.
“The other advantage is that when you press the button you can talk and control security situation. In other words, it offers you the opportunity to have security situation in your fingers. We are also proud due to the durability of our products. It is much more than a cell-phone, eliminating the constant recharge or subscription. But for the radio when you purchase it and pay subscription for the year, you continue to use it”.
Also, Tom Mainelli, research director, Tablets at IDC identified that, “A lower than anticipated second quarter, hampered by a lack of major product announcements, means the second half of the year now becomes even more critical for a tablet market that has traditionally seen its highest shipment volume occur during the holiday season.
“We expect average selling prices to continue to compress as more mainstream vendors utilize low-cost components to better compete with the whitebox tablet vendors that continue to enjoy widespread traction in the market despite typically offering lower-quality products and poorer customer experiences.”
While mature markets such as North America and Western Europe have driven much of the tablet market’s growth to date, IDC expects shipment growth to begin to slow in these markets.
Market saturation, increased adoption of smartphones with 5-inch and greater screens, and the eventual growth of the wearable category will impact tablet growth in all regions, but are likely to impact mature regions first, the Company said in the report.
As a result, IDC now expects the mature market (comprised of North America, Western Europe, and Japan) to shrink from 60.8% of the worldwide market in 2012 to 49% by 2017.
As a result, emerging markets (comprised broadly of Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) will grow from 39.2% in 2012 to 51% in 2017.
“Year-on-year growth is beginning to slow as the tablet market approaches early stages of maturity,” said Jitesh Ubrani, Research Analyst for the Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker.
“Much of the long-term growth will be driven by countries like China where projected growth rates will be consistently higher than the worldwide average.”
A secondary trend in the tablet market is the rise of tablets in the commercial segment. Education projects and adoption in vertical markets such as retail are contributing factors as this segment is set to slowly double from the 10% share it held in 2012 to 20% by 2017.