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Tourism Revenue: Why Nigeria is 25 Times Less Successful Than Ghana

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Charles Robertson is the Renaissance Capital's Global Chief Economist
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Tourism should be an easy win for emerging market (EM) and frontier market (FM) economies with weakened currencies, and cheap jet fuel; an opportunity that we think is being missed.

When in the last decade did Iraq do better from tourism than Russia or India?

Why did you go on holiday to France, Spain or the US this year, rather than Russia? Why is Nigeria the second worst out of 43 countries in Africa at attracting tourist receipts, while nearby Ghana is 25 times more successful?

How is it even possible that as recently as 2010, Iraq was benefiting more from tourism than India, Russia, Nigeria or Bangladesh? In analysing tourism’s winners and losers, from the developed markets (DM) to beyond FMs, we suspect one common factor linking those who do poorly is the visa regime. Many EM or FM countries with difficult visa regimes collect less than 1% of GDP in tourism receipts, even as IMF data show their citizens spend far more than that abroad.

By contrast, easy visa regimes over the past 20 years have helped tourism numbers rise from 14k a year in Laos to not far off 14k a day, while tourism revenue in Cambodia has soared from $100mn to $3bn a year. In Georgia, tourism brought in 4% of GDP in 2005 and revenue reached 14% of GDP in 2015. Easy visa regimes from Rwanda to Cape Verde, and from Singapore to Thailand, help to drive GDP growth and make citizens better off. Nigeria, by contrast, runs a significant tourism deficit, which we estimate at around $4-5bn; the highly expensive visas do not come close to covering that gap and per-capita GDP is suffering.

Pride Before Economics (For Some)
Global media may have strangely overlooked the breakthrough visa-free reciprocity deal between Russia and Laos earlier this month, but it does highlight two very differing views on visa policy.

To Laos, cancelling visa requirements for Russians is another hook with which to attract tourists from a richer country. It hopes to use tourism, as neighbouring Thailand has done, to lift growth. For Russia, which can expect no significant economic boom from Lao tourists, the deal is another example of visa reciprocity; if a country treats Russia with respect by allowing easy visa access, it will get Russia’s respect in return.

But if EU countries and the US do not treat Russia with respect, by imposing complex visa requirements on Russians, then Russia will likely impose similarly complicated visa produces on EU and US citizens. We have heard similar views from India and Nigeria.

This is an understandable emotional reaction – and woe betide the economist who thinks money is more important than feelings. Yet other strongly patriotic countries, such as Croatia or Turkey, have not equated national pride with visa access. They instead prioritise tourist cash. While high-income countries can afford to forsake tourism revenue, lower-income countries can gain a great deal by encouraging tourism.

We estimate Russia is missing out on at least $6bn of tourist receipts (and as much as $18bn if it could get tourists as interested in St Petersburg and Russia as they are in Paris and France), as well as the jobs and much-needed GDP diversification that a larger tourism sector would bring.

Terrorism, post-conflict booms, the Olympics and the World Cup
There are of course more important drivers of tourism than just visas. We also show the negative impact of political instability and terrorism.

Tourism receipts as a percentage of GDP are down by more than 33% in Morocco since 2007 (despite no terrorist-related fatalities in five years), by over 50% (3% of GDP) in Tunisia and by nearly 75% (5% of GDP) in Egypt.

The rebound potential if politics improve is very substantial. Since the end of the conflict in Sri Lanka, tourism receipts have quadrupled from 0.8% of GDP in 2009 to 3.6% of GDP in 2015.

Meanwhile, it surprises us that the EM that underperforms the most on tourism is Brazil – and neither hosting the World Cup nor the Olympics is likely to improve that much in the future. But for others, tourism is an opportunity that we think more governments should grasp with both hands.

Charles Robertson is the Renaissance Capital’s Global Chief Economist


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IEEE CTU-EMEA Summit Organizers Hold Strategic Meeting with Baze University Management

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The Local Organising Committee of the IEEE Connecting the Unconnected Europe, Middle East, and Africa (CTU-EMEA) Summit 2025 on Wednesday paid a courtesy visit to the management of Baze University, Abuja, in preparation for the international conference scheduled to hold from Nov. 27 to 28.

The visit, which brought together top officials from IEEE Nigeria Section and senior management of Baze University, focused on finalising arrangements for the summit themed “Bridging Digital Frontiers: African Solutions for Universal Connectivity.”

Speaking during the meeting, Mr. Chukwuemeka Gerald Okafor, General Conference Chair, described the summit as a historic milestone for Nigeria’s digital transformation agenda.

“This is the first time Nigeria is hosting an IEEE CTU international summit of this magnitude. Over 200 global leaders—ministers, regulators, CEOs, and innovators—will converge in Abuja to address the challenge of connecting 2.9 billion unconnected people worldwide,” Okafor said.

He disclosed that high-profile speakers had confirmed participation, including government ministers, representatives of the World Bank and International Telecommunication Union (ITU), telecom executives, and researchers from across the EMEA region.

Also speaking, Prof. Osita, Deputy Vice Chancellor (Academics), who represented the Vice Chancellor of Baze University, expressed the institution’s readiness to host the summit.

“We are honoured that IEEE selected Baze University as the venue for this prestigious event. It aligns with our vision of becoming a hub for technology innovation and global academic collaboration,” Osita said.

The summit programme includes an opening ceremony with ministerial presence, eight technical tracks, panel discussions, paper presentations, workshops, and an exhibition area for technology companies and startups.

Social events such as a Welcome Cocktail on Nov. 26 and a Gala Dinner on Nov. 28 are also planned to foster networking and collaboration.

Ms. Nneoma Offodile, Chair of the Local Organising Committee, said the summit would leave a lasting legacy for Nigerian students, especially those at Baze University.

“There will be volunteer opportunities, discounted registration, and exposure to global experts. We want students to benefit directly from this gathering,” she said.

The meeting also addressed logistical arrangements including venue setup, technology infrastructure, catering, accommodation, and security for international delegates.

IEEE, founded in 1884, is the world’s largest technical professional organisation with over 423,000 members globally. Its CTU programme focuses on bridging the digital divide through research, innovation, and stakeholder engagement.

Engr. Abdulateef Aliyu, IEEE Region 8 Representative, said the summit affirms Nigeria’s capacity to host world-class events and positions the country as a strategic hub for technology discourse in Africa.

The organising committee called on Nigerian ICT professionals, telecom operators, corporate sponsors, researchers, and students to participate actively in the summit.

Prof. Ifeayinwa Achumba, IEEE Nigeria Section Chair, said the summit would showcase scalable African solutions to global connectivity challenges.

Follow-up meetings are scheduled to finalise technical details and coordinate logistics ahead of the November event.


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65m Nigerians Pushed into Poverty as GDP Per Capita Falls 66% – Report

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Over 65 million Nigerians were reportedly pushed into poverty in 2024 following a 66 per cent decline in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, according to a new report by Quartus Economics.

The report, titled “Forty Years of Structural Adjustment: Is Africa’s Eagle Stuck or Soaring Back to Life?”, examined Nigeria’s economic trajectory since the introduction of the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986.

Quartus noted that while the reforms helped grow Nigeria’s GDP from $87.5 billion in 1990 to $252 billion in 2024, the country’s economic structure remained fragile, with the naira losing 99.7 per cent of its value over the same period.

The report stated that liberalisation, privatisation, and banking reforms initially boosted private investment and manufacturing, but policy reversals and weak implementation undermined progress.

“Policy inconsistencies and weak implementation led to a recurring cycle of mixed results and missed opportunities,” the report said. “The goal of inclusive, export-led growth has remained elusive.”

Between 2014 and 2023, Nigeria experienced its worst growth slowdown in a generation, driven by falling oil prices, population pressures, restrictive fiscal and monetary policies, and governance lapses. Inflation rose above 30 per cent, capital inflows declined, and economic stagnation persisted.

However, the report praised the 2023–2024 reforms, including the removal of petrol and foreign exchange subsidies, as decisive measures that began correcting structural distortions.

By late 2024, GDP growth rebounded to nearly 4 per cent, with renewed strength in the manufacturing and mining sectors. Foreign reserves rose to $42 billion by October 2025, and inflation began to ease slightly.

Despite these improvements, Quartus warned that per capita income remains far below pre-crisis levels and that Nigeria’s export base and governance systems still face deep inefficiencies.

“The recovery is real, but lasting transformation will depend on discipline, continuity, and collective commitment to reform,” the report concluded.


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BlueNoroff Targets Eecutives on Windows and MacOS Using AI-driven Tools

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At the Security Analyst Summit in Thailand, Kaspersky’s Global Research and Analysis Team (GReAT) unveiled the latest BlueNoroff APT activity through two highly targeted malicious campaigns ‘GhostCall’ and ‘GhostHire’. The ongoing operations have been targeting Web3 and cryptocurrency organisations across India, Turkiye, Australia and other countries in Europe and Asia since at least April 2025.

BlueNoroff, a subdivision of the notorious Lazarus group, continues to expand its signature ‘SnatchCrypto’ campaign, a financially motivated operation which targets crypto industries worldwide. The newly described GhostCall and GhostHire campaigns employ new infiltration techniques and customised malware to compromise blockchain developers and executives. These attacks affect macOS and Windows systems as primary targets and are managed through a unified command-and-control infrastructure.

The GhostCall campaign focuses on macOS devices, beginning with a highly sophisticated and personalised social engineering attack. The attackers reach out via Telegram, impersonating venture capitalists and in some cases using compromised accounts of real entrepreneurs and startup founders to promote investment or partnership opportunities. The victims are invited to fake investment meetings on phishing sites mimicking Zoom or Microsoft Teams during which they are prompted to “update” their client to fix an audio issue, this action downloads a malicious script and deploys a malware infection on the device.

“This campaign relied on deliberate and carefully planned deception. Attackers replayed videos of previous victims during staged meetings to make the interaction appear like a real call and manipulate new targets. The data collected in this process is then used not only against the initial victim but also exploited to enable subsequent and supply-chain attacks, leveraging established trust relationships to compromise a broader range of organisations and users,” comments Sojun Ryu, security researcher at Kaspersky GReAT.

Attackers deployed seven multi-stage execution chains, four which were previously unseen, to distribute a range of new customised payloads, including crypto stealers, browser credential stealers, secrets stealer, and Telegram credential stealers.

In the GhostHire campaign the APT targets blockchain developers by posing as recruiters. Victims are tricked into downloading and running a GitHub repository containing malware, presented as a skill assessment. GhostHire shares its infrastructure and tools with the GhostCall campaign, but instead of using video calls, it focuses on approaching hands-on developers and engineers through fake recruitment. After initial contact, victims are added to a Telegram bot that delivers either a ZIP file or a GitHub link, along with a short deadline to complete the task. Once executed, the malware installs itself on the victim’s machine, customised for the operating system.

The use of generative AI has enabled BlueNoroff to accelerate malware development and refine its attack techniques. The attackers introduced new programming languages and added additional features, complicating detection and analysis tasks. It further enables the actor to manage and expand its operations, increasing both the complexity and scale of attacks.

“Since its previous campaigns, the threat actor’s targeting strategy has evolved beyond simple cryptocurrency and browser credential theft. The use of generative AI has significantly accelerated this process, enabling easier malware development with reduced operational overhead.

“This AI-driven approach helps to fill the gaps in available information, enabling more focused targeting. By combining compromised data with AI’s analytical capabilities, the scope of these attacks has expanded. We hope our research will contribute to preventing further harm,” comments Omar Amin, senior security researcher at Kaspersky GReAT.

 


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