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Tourism Revenue: Why Nigeria is 25 Times Less Successful Than Ghana

Tourism should be an easy win for emerging market (EM) and frontier market (FM) economies with weakened currencies, and cheap jet fuel; an opportunity that we think is being missed.
When in the last decade did Iraq do better from tourism than Russia or India?
Why did you go on holiday to France, Spain or the US this year, rather than Russia? Why is Nigeria the second worst out of 43 countries in Africa at attracting tourist receipts, while nearby Ghana is 25 times more successful?
How is it even possible that as recently as 2010, Iraq was benefiting more from tourism than India, Russia, Nigeria or Bangladesh? In analysing tourism’s winners and losers, from the developed markets (DM) to beyond FMs, we suspect one common factor linking those who do poorly is the visa regime. Many EM or FM countries with difficult visa regimes collect less than 1% of GDP in tourism receipts, even as IMF data show their citizens spend far more than that abroad.
By contrast, easy visa regimes over the past 20 years have helped tourism numbers rise from 14k a year in Laos to not far off 14k a day, while tourism revenue in Cambodia has soared from $100mn to $3bn a year. In Georgia, tourism brought in 4% of GDP in 2005 and revenue reached 14% of GDP in 2015. Easy visa regimes from Rwanda to Cape Verde, and from Singapore to Thailand, help to drive GDP growth and make citizens better off. Nigeria, by contrast, runs a significant tourism deficit, which we estimate at around $4-5bn; the highly expensive visas do not come close to covering that gap and per-capita GDP is suffering.
Pride Before Economics (For Some)
Global media may have strangely overlooked the breakthrough visa-free reciprocity deal between Russia and Laos earlier this month, but it does highlight two very differing views on visa policy.
To Laos, cancelling visa requirements for Russians is another hook with which to attract tourists from a richer country. It hopes to use tourism, as neighbouring Thailand has done, to lift growth. For Russia, which can expect no significant economic boom from Lao tourists, the deal is another example of visa reciprocity; if a country treats Russia with respect by allowing easy visa access, it will get Russia’s respect in return.
But if EU countries and the US do not treat Russia with respect, by imposing complex visa requirements on Russians, then Russia will likely impose similarly complicated visa produces on EU and US citizens. We have heard similar views from India and Nigeria.
This is an understandable emotional reaction – and woe betide the economist who thinks money is more important than feelings. Yet other strongly patriotic countries, such as Croatia or Turkey, have not equated national pride with visa access. They instead prioritise tourist cash. While high-income countries can afford to forsake tourism revenue, lower-income countries can gain a great deal by encouraging tourism.
We estimate Russia is missing out on at least $6bn of tourist receipts (and as much as $18bn if it could get tourists as interested in St Petersburg and Russia as they are in Paris and France), as well as the jobs and much-needed GDP diversification that a larger tourism sector would bring.
Terrorism, post-conflict booms, the Olympics and the World Cup
There are of course more important drivers of tourism than just visas. We also show the negative impact of political instability and terrorism.
Tourism receipts as a percentage of GDP are down by more than 33% in Morocco since 2007 (despite no terrorist-related fatalities in five years), by over 50% (3% of GDP) in Tunisia and by nearly 75% (5% of GDP) in Egypt.
The rebound potential if politics improve is very substantial. Since the end of the conflict in Sri Lanka, tourism receipts have quadrupled from 0.8% of GDP in 2009 to 3.6% of GDP in 2015.
Meanwhile, it surprises us that the EM that underperforms the most on tourism is Brazil – and neither hosting the World Cup nor the Olympics is likely to improve that much in the future. But for others, tourism is an opportunity that we think more governments should grasp with both hands.
Charles Robertson is the Renaissance Capital’s Global Chief Economist
News
Lagos Govt Drags Top Firms to Court Over Billion-Naira Tax Debts

Lagos State has dragged 45 individuals and firms, including Bi-Courtney Aviation, DAAR Communications and Leaders & Company, to revenue court for tax debts running into billions of naira.

Lagos Govt
Bi-Courtney, operators of Murtala Muhammed Airport Terminal Two, faces N38.7 million claim; DAAR, behind Africa Independent Television, owes N22.4 million; ThisDay publishers Leaders & Company allegedly skip N67.1 million.
GMT Energy Resources tops corporates at N145.8 million, followed by Sheriff Deputies at N132.1 million; others like Heyden Petroleum, AA Rescue, BRT operator Primero also listed.
Individuals owe N13.5 million to N35 million each.
Attorney-General Lawal Pedro said suits followed ignored notices, aiming to enforce laws and fund infrastructure.
More defendants: IENG Nigeria, James Fisher, V Care Diagnostics, Venture Garden, Saro Africa, Barry Callebaut, Native Media, First Consulting, Eyowo Payments.
Compliant taxpayers post-notice escaped prosecution; defaulters risk penalties, interest, jail.
Pedro urged prompt filings and payments.
News
Beware of Fake Cerelac Products – NAFDAC

National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) has alerted Nigerians on counterfeit and unregistered Cerelac Mixed Fruits and Wheat products being sold in Lagos.

NAFDAC said Nestle Nigeria, the genuine Marketing Authorisation Holder of the product, received a complaint of suspected counterfeit purportedly manufactured by Nestlé Spain, bearing Batch Code 308002910.
It said that Nestle Nigeria reported that the complainant described that the counterfeit product emitted an odour suggestive of possible contact with fuel.
NAFDAC said that preliminary review of the product by Nestle Nigeria indicated that it had expired, in spite of the container displaying an expiry date of 10-2026, which suggested that the date coding had been tampered with (revalidated).
Nestle Cerelac Mixed Fruits and Wheat is a nutritious infant cereal, designed to be a delicious first food for infants.
NAFDAC said that its post-marketing surveillance’s directorate officers in Lagos conducted a surveillance visit to Maxland Shopping Centre, 193 Ago Palace, Okota, where the product was purchased by the complainant.
It added that the suspected counterfeit and unregistered Cerelac were found on sale at the premises and subsequently mopped up, while Nestle assisted in identifying the distinguishing features between registered and unregistered product.
According to the regulatory agency, Nestle revealed that the unregistered product used a hyphen (-) to separate the day from the year, while the registered product used a slash (/) to separate the day from the year.
“It is important to note that Nestle Nigeria is not aware of the channels through which the products are supplied into the country.
“Healthcare professionals and consumers are advised to report any suspicion of the sale of substandard and falsified regulated products to the nearest NAFDAC office, call 0800-162-3322, or send an email to [email protected],” NAFDAC said.
The agency warned that counterfeit formula often lacked essential nutrients, vitamins and minerals, leading to stunted growth or developmental issues.
It said that such formula might also contain contaminants that might lead to severe health consequences to infants or even death.
NAFDAC reiterated its commitment to safeguarding public health adding that it would continue surveillance activities to ensure the quality, safety, and efficacy of all NAFDAC-regulated products circulating in Nigeria.
It said that all zonal directors of the agency and state coordinators had been directed to carry out surveillance and mop up the revalidated product, if found within the zones and states.
The agency urged distributors, retailers, healthcare professionals, and caregivers to exercise caution and vigilance within the supply chain, to avoid the distribution, sale, and use of fake products.
News
NITDA Strengthens Collaboration with NIPSS to Drive Digital Innovation, Orange Economy Growth

The National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) has reinforced its commitment to advancing Nigeria’s digital transformation agenda through strengthened collaboration with key strategic institutions, as it hosted the Director General of the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), Professor Ayo Omotayo, alongside participants of the Senior Executive Course (SEC) 48, 2026.

The visit, which builds on an earlier strategic study tour, provided a platform for in-depth engagement on the role of digital innovation in driving sustainable economic growth, with particular focus on the Orange Economy.
Representing the Director General of NITDA, Kashifu Inuwa CCIE, the Director of Stakeholder Management and Partnerships, Dr Aristotle Onumo, highlighted the Agency’s commitment to fostering a vibrant digital ecosystem through inclusive policies, strategic partnerships, and capacity development initiatives.
“NITDA is committed to creating an enabling environment where innovation can thrive by bringing together government, private sector, academia, and creatives to drive Nigeria’s digital economy,” he stated.
Inuwa underscored the growing importance of the Orange Economy, describing it as a critical driver of innovation and economic value through intellectual property. He identified sectors such as digital content creation, film, animation, and digital art as key contributors to national development.
“The Orange Economy represents a powerful opportunity to transform our rich cultural heritage and creativity into sustainable economic growth,” he noted.
He further highlighted Nigeria’s unique advantage, particularly its youthful and creative population, while calling for stronger collaboration among stakeholders to fully harness the sector’s potential.
“With our youthful population and rich cultural assets, Nigeria is well-positioned to become a global leader in the Orange Economy if we deepen collaboration and investment across the ecosystem,” he added.
During the engagement, NITDA also presented its strategic initiatives aimed at supporting the digital and creative sectors, including digital infrastructure development, promotion of digital literacy, and implementation of policies that enable startups and innovators to scale.
Addressing challenges facing the sector, Inuwa pointed to issues such as limited access to funding, infrastructure gaps, weak intellectual property protection, and ecosystem fragmentation, while emphasising the need for coordinated action.
“Addressing challenges such as funding gaps, infrastructure deficits, and intellectual property protection is critical to unlocking the full potential of Nigeria’s creative economy,” he said.
The Agency reiterated its target of achieving 70 per cent digital literacy by 2027, noting that ongoing programmes are equipping millions of Nigerians with essential digital skills, including those in underserved and informal sectors.
In his remark, Professor Omotayo described the visit as an important opportunity to deepen understanding of how digital technologies are reshaping economic sectors, particularly the creative industry. He noted that the insights gathered would contribute significantly to policy recommendations aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s economic framework.
Participants of the SEC 48 programme engaged actively during the session, raising questions on capacity development, access to tools, and frameworks for protecting digital content. NITDA highlighted its ongoing collaborations with industry stakeholders to provide training, innovation hubs, and access to digital tools for young Nigerians.
The engagement concluded with a renewed commitment from both NITDA and NIPSS to strengthen collaboration in research, policy development, and capacity building, aimed at positioning Nigeria as a globally competitive force in the digital and creative economy.
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