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Opinion: Is Nigeria poised for an Economic Rebound?

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It has certainly been a lively year for the Nigerian economy as it continues to diversify away from oil reliance while juggling with a currency crisis and Dollar shortages created by low oil prices.

Although the nation still remains exposed to external risks, there has been some optimism over the economic landscape stabilizing, with the improving macro fundamentals fueling speculations of an economic rebound by the end of 2017.

Early signs of recovery can already be seen across Gross Domestic Growth, falling inflation and foreign exchange rate stability.

Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF), who previously warned of a potential economic collapse back in March, has turned positive and projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow at a faster pace than South Africa’s in 2018.

The current speed of Nigeria’s recovery can be described as slow and steady, with the macro-fundamentals gradually stabilizing. Inflation has cooled for the fifth consecutive month in June at 16.1% illustrating further signs of price stability while manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities have both moved in a positive trajectory.

The Naira continues to display resilience against the US Dollar this year, with prices currently trading around 363 on the black market exchange. Although the repeated intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria has heavily attributed to the Naira’s recovery and stability, confidence over Nigeria’s economic recovery continues to play a leading role.

While the local currency may experience further stability in the coming months as the Central Bank of Nigeria intervenes, the multiple exchanges have left the foreign exchanges divided and continue to pose a risk to investment.

Rather than using the foreign exchange reserves to support the Naira, the CBN should work towards cleaning up the multiple exchanges, while allowing the natural forces of supply and demand to determine the Naira’s true equilibrium value.

Although I remain optimistic over Nigeria resurging from an economic meltdown and eventually breaking away from its dependence on oil as an engine for growth, there are still external risks which could present headwinds on the road to recovery.

The greatest threat to Nigeria’s current recovery in the medium to longer term, is depressed oil prices. Falling oil has the ability to directly impact the nation’s government revenues, external reserves, and stability of the nation’s foreign exchange market.

Another risk in the pipeline that could pressure Nigeria’s recovery is OPEC’s recent decision to cap the nation’s oil production to 1.8 million barrels per day, especially when the budget proposal is based on 2.2 million barrels per day at $44.50 per barrel. It should be kept in mind that restricting production not only poses a threat to the budget but also is seen as a disincentive for investment.

Investors should pay close attention to higher US interest rates which have the ability to boost the US Dollar ultimately pressuring emerging markets, with Nigeria fitting into the category. While the threat of capital outflows from a strengthening US Dollar may expose the Nigerian economy to downside shocks, it should also be kept in mind that a portion of the government revenues is recouped from oil which is priced in Dollar.

In the longer term, an appreciating Dollar from higher US rates will not only diminish the value of the government’s working revenue, but also enforce pressure on the nation’s black market exchange.

The Central Bank of Nigeria is likely to remain in the spotlight in the third quarter of 2017 as investors wait to see whether interest rates will be hiked or trimmed. Nigeria’s ongoing mission to diversify from oil reliance, as well as a sharp drop in oil which triggered a currency crisis, have encouraged the CBN to maintain its key interest rates at 14% in July. While the central bank is likely to remain on standby in the short term as Nigeria nurses its wounds, a rate cut could be on the cards in the medium to longer term if inflation continues to follow a negative trajectory and other forms of hard economic data improve.

Focusing on the fiscal side, this still remains a gray are with the nation’s long-running infrastructure problems compounding to its woes. With the overall projected fiscal deficit tagged at N2.36 trillion one can only hope that the approved budget offers a helping hand to the nation.

Nigeria is in urgent need for robust infrastructure as major roads are in poor condition; the power sector remains a cause for concern while health and education need to be revamped. Rectifying these issues has the ability to not only create jobs but also support economic growth and boost investor confidence.

As we head deeper into the third quarter of 2017, market players may closely observe hard domestic data at home to gauge the nation’s health and verify if an economic recovery really is on the cards for 2017. Nigeria’s mission to diversify away from oil reliance while recovering from an economic deceleration remains an ongoing quest and it will be interesting to see how far the nation has progressed by year end.


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E-Financial

CBN Misinterprets Cyber Security Provisions – Falana

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Femi Falana, SAN, has said that the recently imposed 0.5 per cent cybersecurity levy is not meant for individuals.

CBN Misinterprets Cyber Security Provisions - Falana

Femi Falana

 

Falana made this known in a statement, saying the circular of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), wrongly interpreted the provisions of the Cybercrime (Prohibition, Prevention, etc.) Amendment Act 2024.

According to the senior lawyer, “The CBN should also apologise to Nigerians for the misleading interpretation of the unambiguous provisions of Cybercrime (Prohibition, Prevention, etc.) Amendment Act 2024,”.

Public outcry has greeted the introduction of 0.5 per cent levy on the value of all electronic transactions, by the federal government

According to the announcement, the levy was to be remitted to the National Cybersecurity Fund, overseen by the Office of the National Security Adviser (NSA).

Falana said though the said levy is payable by the businesses listed in the second schedule to the principal Act, the CBN wrongly directed all financial institutions to apply the levy at the point of electronic transfer origination.

“The erroneous interpretation might have arisen from the substitution of ‘businesses’ for ‘business’ in the amendment.

For the avoidance of doubt, by Section 42(a) of the Cybercrime Act 2025 as amended, the businesses which are required to pay the levy are GSM service providers and all telecommunications companies; Internet service providers; banks and other financial institutions; insurance companies; and the Nigerian Stock Exchange,” Falana said.

 

 

 

 


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Wema Bank Launches CoopHub, Digital Solution for Cooperative Societies

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Wema Bank has launched CoopHub, a new digital solution for Cooperative Societies at a ceremony held on Friday, to commemorate the 79th anniversary of the bank.

Wema Bank Launches CoopHub, Digital Solution for Cooperative Societies

CoopHub, the first of its kind in the Nigerian banking industry, is a digital platform designed strategically to transform the way Cooperative Societies operate by providing tailored solutions that bridge the gaps in the traditional framework of Cooperative Societies.

The unique platform insulates Cooperative Societies against prevalent struggles like manual recordkeeping, limited access to loans, poor communication, insecurity, and other restrictions, supporting them with the solutions needed to not only mitigate these problems but also operate with the utmost efficiency.

With CoopHub, leaders of Cooperative Societies can manage every aspect of their community’s operations from a simplified dashboard accessible on their phones, seamlessly managing their Cooperative Society’s finances, communication, member records, analytics and every other detail in real time and on the go.

Members of the Cooperative Societies also enjoy increased access to loans, seamless contribution tracking, secure transactions, and easy communication with the leaders.

Essentially, CoopHub helps Cooperative Societies maintain 100% transparency, reliability, and security, with the option of white labelling for a customised experience.

Disclosing the Bank’s motive for creating CoopHub, Moruf Oseni, Wema Bank’s MD/CEO, highlighted the Bank’s commitment to innovation and customer-centricity.

“Cooperative Societies have many pain points. As a bank that is committed to empowering lives through innovation, we examined the end-to-end value chain of Cooperative Societies and launched CoopHub to provide solutions that address the pains and headaches in the Cooperative Society experience for both the leaders of these communities and the members.

CoopHub is the future of Cooperative Societies and we have designed every detail to address the needs of every player in the Cooperative Society ecosystem and empower these communities for optimal productivity,” he said.

Delving into the unique features of CoopHub, Solomon Ayodele, Wema Bank’s Head of Innovation, added, “CoopHub is taking Cooperatives to an era where conflicts, stressful physical meetings, mistrust, inadequate capital, poor recordkeeping and inefficient governance are all a thing of the past.

With a digitised database for all records, a dedicated User Management section for leaders to manage members efficiently, a transparent overview of contributions for both leaders and members, seamless communication framework that allows for easy planning of meetings and events, and a host of other unique features, CoopHub truly is the solution that every Cooperative Society needs.

To promote community and financial security, CoopHub also offers a three-factor authentication system that ensures that every withdrawal from the Cooperative Society’s account is subject to an approval of three members of the Cooperative Society, including the Admin.

We have been very intentional with CoopHub and I encourage every Cooperative Society to come on board and experience the future of Cooperative Societies through CoopHub”, Ayodele concluded.

CoopHub is now live and open to every Cooperative Society across the world.

This futuristic solution is set to not only empower Nigerian lives with increased access to their needs through Cooperative Societies, but also revolutionise Cooperative Society operations for the best.


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SEC Issues Rules on Issuance, Allotment of Private Companies’ Securities

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has unveiled new rules on Issuance and Allotment by Private Companies Securities. The rules declared that any person who issues or allots securities without its prior approval or violates any provisions of its regulations would be liable to a penalty not less than N10 million in the first instance and a further sum of N100,000 for every day the violation continues.

The recommended fine is contained in the proposed new rules on the issuance and allotment of private companies and securities prepared by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The rules apply to debt securities issuances by private companies either by way of public offer, private placement or other methods as may be approved by the Commission; Registered exchanges and platforms which admit debt securities issued by private companies for trading, price discovery or information repository purposes; Registered capital market operators who are parties in issuances and allotment of debt securities of private companies.

The Commission, which set out stringent punishment for those who violate the regulation, stated: “Any person who issues or allots securities without the prior approval of the Commission, or violates any provisions of these rules shall be liable to any one or more of the following sanctions: i. A penalty of not less than N10 million in the first instance and a further sum of N100,000 for every day the violation continues; ii. Suspension, or withdrawal of the registration of the capital market operator(s) involved; iii. Disgorgement of proceeds/income from the transaction; and iv. The Commission may ratify or rescind a transaction if it is in the interest of the public to do so; v. Any other sanction the Commission deems fit in the circumstance.”

The document stated that a private company may list its securities on a registered securities exchange, adding that such securities must be listed not later than 30 days after completion of allotment.

SEC explained that for a private company to be eligible to issue securities under the regulations it must be a company duly incorporated under Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA), or other enabling Laws with at least three years track record of operation.

The regulations pegged the maximum amount a private company can raise within a one-year period at N15 billion provided that where a private company intends to undertake any further debt securities issuance, it shall be required to re-register as a public company.

 


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