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Reasons Naira May Hit N500 to $1 Before Year End- Otunuga

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM a keen follower of macroeconomic events, with a strong professional and academic background in finance, has once again predicted that certain external and internal factors may push the Nigeria’s currency vulnerability to dollar exchange rates even before the end of the year.

Well versed in the various factors affecting the currency and commodity markets, Otunuga, who was speaking Nigeria CommunicationsWeek recently in Lagos, said that depreciate in international oil price is principal among factors affecting the naira due to the mono-economic nature of the country.

He provides in-depth analysis on the global currency and commodity markets and isoften quoted by leading international media outlets such as: MarketWatch, CNBC, NASDAQ, Reuters, AFP, The Guardian and Yahoo.

Prior to joining FXTM, Otunuga spent two years as a research analyst with international currency broker FXCM, where he focused on technical and fundamental analysis of the global currency, commodity and stock markets.

Otunuga was also responsible for leading educational seminars for international and local high net worth individuals, and has published a series of educational articles on forex trading with City A.M.

Otunuga holds a BSc (hons) degree in Economics from the University of Essex, UK and an MSc in Finance from London School of Business and Finance, where he studied corporate finance, mergers & acquisitions and the role of international financial institutions.

Enjoy the chat:

When you heard, National Bureau of Statistics report that Nigeria’s economy has slide to recession, what first came to your mind?

“When I heard that the National Bureau of Statistics report that Nigeria’s economy has slip to recession, what first came to my mind was for extended period that oil price was down punished major oil-export dependent nations with Nigeria been a no exception.

“If we consider the fact that about 95% of export revenues and 70% of government revenue in Nigeria come from oil revenue, then you can understand why the nation has been under pressure.  So, what has happened to Nigeria is both external and internal.

“Looking at the external factors, Nigeria is heavily oil export dependent. At the same time, even though dollar is not the legal tender in Nigeria, it has strong grip on the economy. Therefore, when you consider the global oil market and the dollar issues, they combined to put Nigeria under pressure.

With Nigeria’s mid-term policies, how quick can we come from the present recession?

“Well, we have to look at this from the short term and long term. Just last week, the even the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) decided to maintain the interest rate at 14%, despite the Finance Minister was saying that higher interest rates can actually act as barrier to the growth in future. Now, the CBN, on the short term is looking at price stability. In the month of August, inflation has climbed to 17.6%.

“So, I think the CBN is trying to see how the economy will fare in the Months of September and October before taking action. So, referring to the question, I think, on the short term, what the CBN can do is stay on the fence and watch how the Nigerian economy performs.

“On the long term, we have to fix our minds that a step has been taking towards diversification to agriculture and building of infrastructure. If these things are put in place, Nigeria could be back within the next two to three years.

You predicted that if CBN continued its policy direction with regards dollar restrictions, Naira will suffer in the market. That prediction has come to pass, Now, what in your view should CBN do differently?

“Yes, I remember that prediction. When I made that prediction I said that if the CBN was to delay de-peg of the Naira it will become deplorable over the natural forces of the demand and supply where equilibrium forces.

“That is what has happened.  If you look at the Naira the official rate today naira is trading around N360 to $1 while the black market is around N420. So, I think even now, the Naira could be open to further losses, due to stronger dollar and weaker oil prices.

“There are still talks at the CBN which is why there is still gap between the official price and the black market. On what CBN should be doing, we have to keep in mind that the Naira is still affected by external factors- oil price. This entails that Naira could still be open to some losses in 2016.

Can you estimate how long (months, years) it will take Nigeria’s economy to flourish again BEYOND oil; that is, owing to Government’s decision to focus on Agriculture, technology?

“The way to diversification is best for Nigeria, but will take a very long time. Remember, Nigeria is made up over 160 million populations with youth the population quite high. One aspect of the diversification is agriculture, which is a better option to reducing food importation and export the surplus.

“When you look at agriculture, manufacturing, technology and building of infrastructure will help Nigeria live beyond oil exportation.  For instance, in the West they produce oil and refine it instead of exporting crude only to import as oil later. So, this is something that can take years to achieve; I think four year minimum.

What Should CBN do with regards managing Bureau De Change (who are principal managers of dollar-naira exchange rates outside the banks)?

“I think the CBN could attempt that funds in this area be transferred through the CBN channels which will be used to manage the dollar-naira exchange.

The Federal Government of Nigeria has declared it intends to submit 2017 budget proposal to NASS as soon as possible, which sector, in your view, should have the lion’s share with regards to economic recovery?

“It goes back to what we have been saying. I feel the share should go to agriculture. No doubt, this is the time for Nigeria to diversify; and it takes time and money to get agriculture to a stable state. And when you have surplus, you export to boost your nation’s self reliance and foreign reserves.

“Another area of investment should be on infrastructure. We know that Nigeria’s infrastructure is weak and it takes a nation with strong infrastructure to easily galvanise all sectors for economic growth, especially manufacturing.

“Tourism could also be a huge industry to help in diversifying the economy.  Let the government invest on roads to boost transportation of those agricultural produce and power. Power will enable SMEs heave sign of relief too and spring up surprises in technological advancements.

What is you prediction with regards how much Naira will exchange to Dollar by year end? What informed your view?

“For now, the main driver between the naira-dollar exchange rates as at today the dollar is domineering. The dollar may continue to strengthen against the Naira, because the U.S is working to strengthen its currency too. If this continues by year end naira may exchange for N500 to a dollar at the black market and N400 official rate.

In the face of the economic recession in the country, what is FXTM doing to help Nigerians (traders) on financial mastery/management?

“Good financial management is extremely important and this comes down to a person’s ability to successfully balance opportunities and risk with regard to their investments. When talking about forex trading, this means having in place a robust risk management strategy and acquiring an in-depth knowledge of the markets so that you can react accordingly to changing market conditions.

“These skills can be learnt and improved, which is why at FXTM we’ve really invested in trader education to ensure that Nigerians can achieve the most from their trading experience. We’ve recently held a number of highly successful educational events in Abuja, including a seminar on ‘The Ultimate Trading Formula’ and a 3-day afternoon trading workshop, and we’ll be holding similar events in Lagos in November. In addition, our local office also offers regular free educational training sessions.

Each week we hold a range of programs including: Basic, Applied and Advanced level financial market trading courses, a MetaTrader 4 Class and an investment seminar on how to trade with the FXTM Invest Program.

“FXTM was one of the first brokers to introduce the updated MetaTrader5 platform that offers hedging and we are seeing a lot of interest in that, so we will look to develop classes on that in the near future as well. 


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Nigeria CommunicationsWeek believes that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. So since 2007, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and how they affect lives.

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Access Bank’s Digital Innovation Earns Top Financial Inclusion Award

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Access Bank Plc has been awarded the prestigious Financial Inclusion Impact Award (Unified) at Nexus 2025, Qore’s flagship customer experience and financial infrastructure summit, in recognition of its groundbreaking digital innovations that have expanded financial access to millions across Africa.

The annual Nexus event, widely regarded as a leading platform for showcasing transformative financial technology on the continent, celebrated institutions driving measurable impact through digital transformation.

Access Bank stood out for its suite of innovative digital banking platforms that have successfully reached underserved communities, enabling financial participation for individuals and small businesses previously excluded from traditional banking services.

This latest accolade adds to Access Bank’s growing list of Nexus honors, having previously secured the Purpose Award in 2023 and the Best Commercial Bank in Technology Adoption Across Africa in 2024.

Speaking on the recognition, Ms. Chizoba Iheme, group head DSA and Beta Proposition, said, “We are truly honored to receive the Nexus Award for Financial Inclusion Impact (Unified). This recognition reinforces Access Bank’s long-standing commitment to breaking barriers and expanding financial access for individuals and businesses across Nigeria and beyond.

“At Access Bank, financial inclusion is more than a mandate, as it is a responsibility we proudly uphold as we continue to design innovative solutions that empower underserved communities. This award strengthens our resolve to keep driving sustainable impact and to ensure that no one is left behind in the financial ecosystem.”

Emeka Emetarom, chief executive officer of Qore, said, “At Qore, we are proud to power the infrastructure that enables real, scalable financial inclusion across Africa. Our partnership with Access Bank continues to demonstrate what is possible when bold vision, technology, and flawless execution come together.”

The recent event, hosted by Qore, brought together stakeholders across the financial services ecosystem, including commercial banks, microfinance banks, fintech companies, regulatory bodies, and government officials. Nexus 2025 provided a platform for industry leaders to discuss building the rails for Africa’s credit revolution and the critical role seamless digital banking must play in shaping this future.


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CBN’s New Cash Policy: A Welcome Liberalisation or a Risky Retreat?

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By Blaise Udunze

On December 2, 2025, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced a policy that significantly departs from the cash-restriction measures Nigerians have faced lately. The apex bank abolished restrictions on cash deposits. Increased the weekly cash withdrawal limits to N500,000 for individuals and N5 million for corporates while substituting the earlier monthly limits of N5 million and N10 million respectively. These modifications, which will be effective from January 1, 2026, represent what the CBN describes as the necessity to “streamline provisions to reflect present-day realities.”

CBN’s New Cash Policy: A Welcome Liberalisation or a Risky Retreat?

CBN

Authorized by the Director of Financial Policy & Regulation, Dr. Rita I. Sike, the policy overhaul aims to lower cash-management expenses, improve security, and lessen money-laundering threats related to Nigeria’s significant dependence on physical cash. Daily ATM withdrawal limits stay fixed at N100,000 and count toward the total cap. Withdrawals exceeding the limits incur charges of three percent for individuals and five percent for companies, with the revenues divided: 40 percent to the CBN and 60 percent to the banks.

This update comes three years following the disputed 2022-2023 cash redesign crisis at a time characterized by extreme cash deficits, extended lines at banks, and devastating impacts on the informal economy. Consequently, the newest order generates responses: praise from individuals who consider it delayed aid, disapproval from those perceiving it as a bewildering backtrack, and concern from those apprehensive about potential enduring hazards.

Experts Applaud a More Realistic Modification

For economists, in a publication by Nairametrics showed that the action taken by the CBN signifies much-needed practicality. Dr. Salisu Ahmed, an economist based in Abuja, refers to the updated limits as “a step,” praising the CBN for gaining a clearer insight into “cash management practices in a predominantly informal economy.”

He stated that the changes will alleviate the difficulties faced by families and small enterprises due to restrictions. Rigid withdrawal caps had limited transactions, made small-scale commerce more difficult, and caused numerous businesses to experience cash-flow problems. “This adjustment signifies a response from the CBN recognizing the challenges Nigerians face daily and easing rules that previously hindered commerce and individual management,” he clarified.

Banking analyst, David Omale, echoes this view, seeing the CBN’s action as a sign of responsiveness. He points out that higher limits could “enhance liquidity for firms facing challenges from inflation, supply-chain issues and unpredictable cash flows.”

In an economy in which over 60 percent of trade is informal and where the adoption of digital payments varies across different socio-economic groups, experts suggest the updated limits correspond more accurately to real-world conditions. These limits offer businesses flexibility to reinstate transactional liberty and may help recover public confidence diminished by previous cash shortages.

Critics Caution About Continuing Disparities and New Threats

However, the praise is not universally shared. Numerous specialists and industry participants contend that the modifications, although appreciated, are inadequate or might even be detrimental.

Financial strategist Nnenna Okafor contends that the updated limits are insufficient for traders and micro-businesses that depend largely on cash to sustain their operations amid challenges. Due to increasing product prices, logistical difficulties, and unreliable digital banking services in regions, she asserts that numerous Nigerians will still need more liquidity than the new thresholds to stay viable.

Within PoS operators’ players, in Nigeria’s payment system, the response is notably divided.

PoS Operators Split

Certain PoS agents appreciate the modifications, anticipating that they will:

–       Reduce friction with banks over “flagged” transactions

–       Facilitate processes for clients requiring withdrawals

–       Rebuild trust after months of cash shortages

Others convey concern. A PoS operator in Lagos cautions that greater cash availability could hinder the adoption of payments. “While easier access to cash can address problems, it may also decrease dependence on PoS terminals and other digital payment solutions that provide long-term security and efficiency,” she remarked.

She argues that if the CBN does not combine the policy with targeted incentives to encourage payment uptake, Nigeria runs the risk of regressing into deep-rooted reliance on cash.

Another operator in Abuja points out a different issue that has to do with unstable cash supply at numerous commercial banks. He insists that simply boosting withdrawal limits does not automatically fix supply shortages. “If banks cannot consistently provide cash, raising limits fails to solve the issue,” he stated.

Other operators also caution that the new setting might push fintech firms out of the market, which possibly allows monopolies to form since only big payment firms can endure the transition back to increased cash usage.

Experts in Security Alert to Increasing Threats, from Crime

Apart from operational issues, security experts have expressed concerns about the dangers linked to greater cash flow.

Abas Ogendengbe, a security expert at Anold Consulting Ltd., warns that increased access to amounts without strict controls “opens up risks for theft, fraud and money laundering.” He contends that without improvements in surveillance transaction tracking and reporting frameworks by banks, criminal groups might take advantage of the restrictions.

Nigeria continues to confront:

–       High rates of petty theft

–       Organised criminal cash-for-goods networks

–       Ransom-based criminality

–       Fraudulent cash-flow manipulation

He contends that a policy boosting the amount of currency in circulation should consequently be accompanied by enhanced institutional protections, rather than diminished ones.

Advantages of the New Policy: Relief, Liquidity, and Business Freedom

 Although it has faced criticism, the CBN’s decision carries benefits:

1. Increased Liquidity for the Informal Sector

Small-scale merchants, farm producers, haulers, craftsmen, and market participants relying significantly on cash will experience ease in transferring money, purchasing stock, and expanding their businesses.

2. Reduced Transaction Friction

Companies that once faced limiting restrictions now recover agility, enhancing business continuity and lowering administrative challenges.

3. Restoration of Public Trust

After the trauma of the cash scarcity era, easing restrictions may slowly rebuild confidence in the banking system and encourage more people to save and transact through formal channels.

4. Policy Simplicity

The updated limits, while still restricted, are more straightforward and less administrative compared to the special-authorization system.

The Disadvantages: Policy Volatility, Inflationary Risks, and Stunted Digitalisation

Nonetheless, the policy change is also accompanied by drawbacks:

1. Weakening of Monetary Policy Credibility

Regular significant reversals indicate instability and undermine confidence. A central bank needs to be consistent and foreseeable; Nigeria’s policy environment has shifted in the contrary.

2. Potential for More Money Laundering

Unlimited cash deposits and increased withdrawal limits are inconsistent with standards for preventing illegal financial transactions.

3. Undermining Digital Payment Growth

The increase in fintech was expedited amidst cash availability. A return to reliance on cash might hinder innovation. Dampen the use of safer trackable digital methods.

4. Increased Risk of Robbery and Cash-Based Crime

An increased amount of cash in use results in tangible currency to be stolen additional opportunities for criminals and amplified operational difficulties for the police.

5. Higher Costs of Cash Management

The processes of currency production, circulation, and safeguarding place financial strains on the banking sector and the CBN.

Policy Details and Operational Complexities

The CBN’s circular offers instructions for operations:

–       Excess withdrawal charges:

3 percent for individuals

5 percent for corporates

–       Revenue sharing:

40 percent to CBN, 60 percent to banks

–       Withdrawals from ATMs and PoS terminals contribute to the limit, highlighting the importance for customers to monitor where their withdrawals originate.

–       ATMs can now be loaded with all denominations, although third-party cheque cashing is still limited to N100,000.

–       Exemptions are maintained for government revenue accounts, microfinance banks, and primary mortgage banks.

–       The removal of exemptions for embassies and donor agencies is a move that some parties consider diplomatically risky.

The CBN frames this policy change as a balance, boosting liquidity while still maintaining the nation’s goal of a cashless economy. Nevertheless, its effectiveness depends on the ability of the government and financial institutions to encourage payments while addressing the security challenges posed by greater cash circulation.

A Relief Today, a Question Mark Tomorrow

The CBN’s updated cash-policy structure provides support for families, small enterprises, and the informal sector. It addresses some of the severe effects of previous policies and shows a readiness, though delayed, to adjust to practical realities.

However, the enduring consequences are complex. The policy creates openings, as money laundering hampers progress in payments, increases security threats, and shows a regulatory environment grappling with achieving stability and trustworthiness.

Nigeria is at an intersection. While cash can relieve hardships, it cannot shape the future economic landscape. The current task is to apply this policy without hindering progress, undermining financial integrity, or jeopardizing monetary stability.

The question of whether this constitutes a liberalisation or an expensive withdrawal will in the end hinge on a single element, the CBN’s ability to pair increased liquidity with stronger oversight, steadfast policy direction, and sustained digital-payment incentives.

Only then can Nigeria avoid sliding backward and instead build a financial system that truly reflects the realities of its people, its economy, and its future.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]


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Senate Considers Bill to Empower CBN to Regulate Fintech

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Senate on Thursday began debate on a bill seeking to amend the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020 to empower the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to designate and supervise systemically important non-bank financial institutions, particularly major fintech operators whose activities now constitute critical national infrastructure.

Senate Considers Bill to Empower CBN to Regulate Fintech

Leading the debate, Tokunbo Abiru, sponsor of the bill and chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions, said the amendment had become urgent due to the rapid transformation of Nigeria’s financial ecosystem and the emergence of large technology-enabled service providers operating at a scale previously unseen in the country.

Abiru noted that fintechs such as mobile money operators, payment service banks, wallet providers, digital lenders and switching companies now serve tens of millions of Nigerians, process huge daily transaction volumes and hold vast pools of sensitive financial data, yet operate within a regulatory framework that has not fully evolved to match their systemic importance.

“The reality today is that a non-bank institution, because of its market dominance, data concentration, customer reach or technological capacity, may pose risks equal to or even greater than those posed by a traditional bank,” Abiru said.

“We are therefore confronted with a regulatory gap that leaves critical parts of the financial system operating outside the highest tier of statutory oversight. This bill seeks to correct that mischief.”

He warned that without modernising BOFIA, the country risked exposing itself to data insecurity, foreign control of sensitive financial infrastructure and vulnerabilities that could undermine national security.

The senator stressed that many fintechs operate across foreign-owned networks, store customer data offshore, or use cloud systems outside regulatory reach, raising concerns around data sovereignty.

“Today, we cannot say with certainty where all the financial and behavioural data processed by some of these institutions is stored, who has access to it, or which foreign jurisdictions may lay claim to it,” he said.

Abiru recalled the temporary CBN restriction on fintech onboarding in April 2024, following issues around KYC compliance, money-laundering red flags and suspicious transactions, a development that, he said, demonstrated the limitations of existing regulatory tools.

The amendment bill proposes five key objectives, including establishing a statutory framework for designating systemically important institutions, creating a national registry of fintechs, empowering the CBN to impose enhanced supervisory requirements, strengthening data sovereignty, and improving consumer protection.

He dismissed suggestions that a new regulatory agency should be created for fintech oversight, arguing that such duplication would fragment regulation and undermine efficiency.

“Fintech regulation is deeply intertwined with monetary policy, payments oversight, prudential supervision, and systemic-risk monitoring, functions that already reside naturally within the Central Bank,” he said.

“International best practice overwhelmingly favours integrating fintech oversight within existing regulators, not creating new bureaucracies.”

Abiru urged the Senate to support the bill, which carries no financial implications under Senate rules.

Contributing to the debate, Adams Oshiomhole, former president of the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC), shared the experience of how his accounts were once hacked, disclosing that the hackers accessed him through one of the Fintech banks.

Oshiomhole also said the identities of most of the key owners of online operators were not known and might not be held accountable for infractions since there was no law binding them to any commitments.

“I know the directors of our regular banks, but I can’t say the same of these Fintech banks.

“I don’t know the directors of MoniePoint, Opay and all others”, he added.

Oshiomhole further argued that when properly regulated through an enabling law, the operations of online financial institutions would better serve the interest of Nigerians.

Senators unanimously passed the bill for second reading and referred it to its Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions for more legislative work.


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