E-Financial
Reasons Naira May Hit N500 to $1 Before Year End- Otunuga

Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM a keen follower of macroeconomic events, with a strong professional and academic background in finance, has once again predicted that certain external and internal factors may push the Nigeria’s currency vulnerability to dollar exchange rates even before the end of the year.
Well versed in the various factors affecting the currency and commodity markets, Otunuga, who was speaking Nigeria CommunicationsWeek recently in Lagos, said that depreciate in international oil price is principal among factors affecting the naira due to the mono-economic nature of the country.
He provides in-depth analysis on the global currency and commodity markets and isoften quoted by leading international media outlets such as: MarketWatch, CNBC, NASDAQ, Reuters, AFP, The Guardian and Yahoo.
Prior to joining FXTM, Otunuga spent two years as a research analyst with international currency broker FXCM, where he focused on technical and fundamental analysis of the global currency, commodity and stock markets.
Otunuga was also responsible for leading educational seminars for international and local high net worth individuals, and has published a series of educational articles on forex trading with City A.M.
Otunuga holds a BSc (hons) degree in Economics from the University of Essex, UK and an MSc in Finance from London School of Business and Finance, where he studied corporate finance, mergers & acquisitions and the role of international financial institutions.
Enjoy the chat:
When you heard, National Bureau of Statistics report that Nigeria’s economy has slide to recession, what first came to your mind?
“When I heard that the National Bureau of Statistics report that Nigeria’s economy has slip to recession, what first came to my mind was for extended period that oil price was down punished major oil-export dependent nations with Nigeria been a no exception.
“If we consider the fact that about 95% of export revenues and 70% of government revenue in Nigeria come from oil revenue, then you can understand why the nation has been under pressure. So, what has happened to Nigeria is both external and internal.
“Looking at the external factors, Nigeria is heavily oil export dependent. At the same time, even though dollar is not the legal tender in Nigeria, it has strong grip on the economy. Therefore, when you consider the global oil market and the dollar issues, they combined to put Nigeria under pressure.
With Nigeria’s mid-term policies, how quick can we come from the present recession?
“Well, we have to look at this from the short term and long term. Just last week, the even the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) decided to maintain the interest rate at 14%, despite the Finance Minister was saying that higher interest rates can actually act as barrier to the growth in future. Now, the CBN, on the short term is looking at price stability. In the month of August, inflation has climbed to 17.6%.
“So, I think the CBN is trying to see how the economy will fare in the Months of September and October before taking action. So, referring to the question, I think, on the short term, what the CBN can do is stay on the fence and watch how the Nigerian economy performs.
“On the long term, we have to fix our minds that a step has been taking towards diversification to agriculture and building of infrastructure. If these things are put in place, Nigeria could be back within the next two to three years.
You predicted that if CBN continued its policy direction with regards dollar restrictions, Naira will suffer in the market. That prediction has come to pass, Now, what in your view should CBN do differently?
“Yes, I remember that prediction. When I made that prediction I said that if the CBN was to delay de-peg of the Naira it will become deplorable over the natural forces of the demand and supply where equilibrium forces.
“That is what has happened. If you look at the Naira the official rate today naira is trading around N360 to $1 while the black market is around N420. So, I think even now, the Naira could be open to further losses, due to stronger dollar and weaker oil prices.
“There are still talks at the CBN which is why there is still gap between the official price and the black market. On what CBN should be doing, we have to keep in mind that the Naira is still affected by external factors- oil price. This entails that Naira could still be open to some losses in 2016.
Can you estimate how long (months, years) it will take Nigeria’s economy to flourish again BEYOND oil; that is, owing to Government’s decision to focus on Agriculture, technology?
“The way to diversification is best for Nigeria, but will take a very long time. Remember, Nigeria is made up over 160 million populations with youth the population quite high. One aspect of the diversification is agriculture, which is a better option to reducing food importation and export the surplus.
“When you look at agriculture, manufacturing, technology and building of infrastructure will help Nigeria live beyond oil exportation. For instance, in the West they produce oil and refine it instead of exporting crude only to import as oil later. So, this is something that can take years to achieve; I think four year minimum.
What Should CBN do with regards managing Bureau De Change (who are principal managers of dollar-naira exchange rates outside the banks)?
“I think the CBN could attempt that funds in this area be transferred through the CBN channels which will be used to manage the dollar-naira exchange.
The Federal Government of Nigeria has declared it intends to submit 2017 budget proposal to NASS as soon as possible, which sector, in your view, should have the lion’s share with regards to economic recovery?
“It goes back to what we have been saying. I feel the share should go to agriculture. No doubt, this is the time for Nigeria to diversify; and it takes time and money to get agriculture to a stable state. And when you have surplus, you export to boost your nation’s self reliance and foreign reserves.
“Another area of investment should be on infrastructure. We know that Nigeria’s infrastructure is weak and it takes a nation with strong infrastructure to easily galvanise all sectors for economic growth, especially manufacturing.
“Tourism could also be a huge industry to help in diversifying the economy. Let the government invest on roads to boost transportation of those agricultural produce and power. Power will enable SMEs heave sign of relief too and spring up surprises in technological advancements.
What is you prediction with regards how much Naira will exchange to Dollar by year end? What informed your view?
“For now, the main driver between the naira-dollar exchange rates as at today the dollar is domineering. The dollar may continue to strengthen against the Naira, because the U.S is working to strengthen its currency too. If this continues by year end naira may exchange for N500 to a dollar at the black market and N400 official rate.
In the face of the economic recession in the country, what is FXTM doing to help Nigerians (traders) on financial mastery/management?
“Good financial management is extremely important and this comes down to a person’s ability to successfully balance opportunities and risk with regard to their investments. When talking about forex trading, this means having in place a robust risk management strategy and acquiring an in-depth knowledge of the markets so that you can react accordingly to changing market conditions.
“These skills can be learnt and improved, which is why at FXTM we’ve really invested in trader education to ensure that Nigerians can achieve the most from their trading experience. We’ve recently held a number of highly successful educational events in Abuja, including a seminar on ‘The Ultimate Trading Formula’ and a 3-day afternoon trading workshop, and we’ll be holding similar events in Lagos in November. In addition, our local office also offers regular free educational training sessions.
Each week we hold a range of programs including: Basic, Applied and Advanced level financial market trading courses, a MetaTrader 4 Class and an investment seminar on how to trade with the FXTM Invest Program.
“FXTM was one of the first brokers to introduce the updated MetaTrader5 platform that offers hedging and we are seeing a lot of interest in that, so we will look to develop classes on that in the near future as well.
E-Financial
Preventing Financial Crimes Amid Mounting Insecurity: Why Following the Money is Now a Survival Imperative

By Blaise Udunze
Nigeria today faces a sobering dual reality: a deepening security crisis and an entrenched financial-crime ecosystem that quietly feeds, sustains, and normalises that crisis. Across the North, Middle Belt, and parts of the South, kidnappers, bandits, insurgent cells, political actors, compromised security agents, and a complex chain of financial facilitators operate within a shadow economy of violence, one that generates billions, claims thousands of lives, and steadily erodes the authority of the state.

Financial Crimes
For over a decade, security experts and Nigeria’s international partners have warned that no meaningful progress will be made against insecurity unless the financial oxygen sustaining violence is cut off. Yet the country continues to prosecute its anti-terrorism efforts largely through military responses, as though the conflict could be resolved solely on the battlefield. What remains missing is a decisive, transparent, and politically courageous confrontation with the economic networks that make insecurity profitable.
This war is not only about guns and bullets. It is about money.
Money moves fighters.
Money buys weapons.
Money fuels political desperation.
Money underwrites chaos.
Until Nigeria addresses the financial pipelines behind its insecurity, the crisis will continue to reproduce itself.
Kidnapping: The Lucrative ‘War Fund’ Sustaining Insurgency
The rise in mass kidnappings is neither accidental nor spontaneous. It has evolved into a rational, structured, revenue-generating enterprise.
Appearing on Channels TV’s Politics Today in October 2025, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed warned that insurgent and bandit groups now treat ransom payments as reliable “war funds.” The data support his claim.
A 2024 survey by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) found that Nigerians paid N2.2 trillion in ransom between May 2023 and April 2024. This astonishing sum does not account for unreported payments made through informal negotiators, mobile transfers, or unregulated community channels.
Kidnapping has matured into a fully formed economy with well-defined roles: negotiators, informants, logistics providers, cash couriers, and security collaborators. Proceeds are reinvested in weapons, motorcycles, communication devices, safe houses, and even land acquisitions.
In the words of a security analyst, “Every successful kidnapping is a fundraiser.”
Sabotage from Within: Keffi’s Explosive Memo and a System Built to Fail
If Nigeria’s external security threats are troubling, the internal compromises are even more alarming.
A leaked memo by Major General Mohammed Ali Keffi accused senior government and military officials of diverting billions of naira earmarked for arms procurement under former Chief of Army Staff, Lt. Gen. Tukur Buratai. Keffi’s allegations included:
– Weapons paid for but never delivered
– Falsified battlefield reports
– Civilian casualties mislabelled to justify inflated expenditures
– Political interference obstructing investigations into terror financing
His claims echoed the earlier warning by Gen. T.Y. Danjuma, who accused sections of the military of working in concert with armed groups and abandoning vulnerable communities.
Keffi’s memo became even more consequential following the 2025 detention of former Attorney General Abubakar Malami by the EFCC over allegations of money laundering, terrorism financing and suspicious financial activity linked to 46 bank accounts.
Together, these revelations paint a disturbing picture: even as Nigerians endure mass abductions, elements within the political and security elite appear to be enabling or shielding the financial networks behind the violence.
Why the Crisis Persists: A Financial Crime Lens
Nigeria’s insecurity cannot be divorced from the environment in which illicit finance thrives. Key enablers include:
1. Informal Economies and Unregulated Cash Flows
With over 70 percent of rural transactions still cash-based, terror groups exploit:
– Hawala networks
– POS and mobile-money agents
– Cattle markets and mining sites
– Barter systems centred on livestock and grains
These channels operate beyond the reach of AML/CFT systems.
2. Identity Fraud and Weak KYC Enforcement
– Criminal networks routinely open accounts with:
– Fake NINs
– Compromised SIM cards
– Recycled BVNs
– Mule identities
3. Collusion within Financial Institutions
The EFCC estimates that up to 70 percent of financial crimes involve bank personnel, primarily through:
– Unauthorised cash withdrawals
– Suppressed Suspicious Transaction Reports (STRs)
– Manipulated internal alerts
4. Weak Prosecution and Political Interference
Cases drag on for years, and many evaporate entirely before reaching court often due to political considerations.
5. Ungoverned Spaces
Large territories across the North serve as hubs for:
– Arms trafficking
– Illegal mining
– Kidnap-for-ransom camps
– Cross-border smuggling
Public Patience Thins: NLC Moves to the Streets
Public frustration is reaching a boiling point. On December 10, the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) announced a nationwide protest scheduled for December 17, citing the “degenerating security situation” and the rise in mass abductions.
The NLC condemned the November 17 abduction of female students in Kebbi, noting that security personnel had been withdrawn from the school shortly before the attack. The union called the act “dastardly and criminal” and directed all affiliates and civil-society partners to fully mobilise for the protest.
This marks a significant shift. For the first time in years, Nigeria’s most influential labour body is placing insecurity at the centre of national mobilization, further underscoring the argument that the current crisis is not simply a security failure but a systemic breakdown of governance, accountability, and financial integrity.
The Financial Engine of Terror: The 23 Suspects Who Moved Billions
A Sahara Reporters investigation uncovered a network of 20 Nigerians and three foreign nationals allegedly linked to the financing of Boko Haram and ISWAP. Their transactions, running into hundreds of billions, were quietly channeled through personal and corporate accounts.
Among those named:
– Alhaji Saidu Ahmed, Zaria businessman: N4.8bn inflows
– Usaini Adamu, Kano trader with 111 accounts: N43bn inflows, N50bn outflows
– Muhammad Sani Adam, forex and precious stones dealer: N54bn across 41 accounts
– Yusuf Ghazali, a forex trader linked to UAE-convicted terrorists, operated 385 accounts
– Ladan Ibrahim, a Sokoto official, is accused of diverting public funds
– Foreign actors included the late Tribert Ayabatwa (N67bn inflows) and Nigerien arms dealer Aboubacar Hima, who moved over $1.19 million.
Strikingly, several of the suspects arrested in 2021 were quietly released without trial, continuing a pattern of impervious investigations and political bottlenecks.
This network confirms a painful truth: Nigeria’s insecurity is not driven solely by men wielding rifles in the bush. It is sustained by individuals in cities, businesses, and bureaucracies, people with access, influence, and remarkable financial mobility.
The Political Dimension: Irabor’s Revelation and the Unnamed Sponsors
The political undertone of Nigeria’s insecurity was reinforced by the former Chief of Defence Staff, Gen. Lucky Irabor (rtd), who admitted that politicians were among those financing terror groups. According to him, some trials were conducted “away from public consumption.”
His statement revived key questions:
– Why is the state shielding the identities of terror sponsors?
– Who benefits from the secrecy?
– What political consequences are being avoided?
Security sources told TruthNigeria that Nigeria’s published list of 19 terror financiers in 2024 represented only a fraction of the full network.
Baba-Ahmed’s accusation that former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai was part of the political forces that aggravated Northern insecurity, an accusation the former governor has previously denied, adds further urgency to demands for transparency.
The Human Cost: Expanding Killing Fields
Despite repeated assurances, violence continues to spread:
– 303 students and 12 teachers abducted in Niger State
– 38 worshippers kidnapped in Kwara
– Simultaneous raids across Plateau, Kaduna, Benue, and Niger
– Whole communities uprooted by weekly attacks
As Amnesty International observed, “In many rural communities, only the graveyards are expanding.”
SBM Intelligence now describes large portions of the North as “open killing fields,” areas where the state’s influence has collapsed, and community vigilantes have become the default security providers.
Expert Voices: Why Nigeria Must Finally Follow the Money
Security experts converge on a single message: Nigeria cannot defeat terrorism without dismantling its financial infrastructure. Dr. Friday Agbo, a security researcher, disclosed, “Terror groups survive because their financial lifelines remain untouched.”
Jonathan Asake, analyst and former SOKAPU president, said, “Publish the full Dubai list. Without transparency, impunity will remain the norm.”
Gen. Irabor (rtd.) revealed, “There are politicians involved. The conflict is multi-layered: ideology, criminality, and political manipulation.”
These assessments underscore one reality: ideology is secondary. Money is primary. It is the oxygen of Nigeria’s terror landscape.
What Must Change
Nigeria must elevate financial crime to the level of a national-security emergency. Key reforms include:
– Integrating BVN-NIN-SIM identity databases and upgrading real-time monitoring
– Targeting illicit markets: illegal mining hubs, cattle markets, unregulated border posts
– Deploying AI-driven analytics to detect layered transactions, mule networks, and ransom flows
– Strengthening bank compliance units and protecting whistleblowers
– Improving inter-agency intelligence sharing (EFCC, NFIU, DSS, NDLEA, Police, CBN)
– Criminalising unexplained wealth, especially in conflict zones
– Investing in safe-school infrastructure, rural policing, and local reporting channels
Choosing Truth Over Convenience
Nigeria’s two-front war is neither mysterious nor new. It is a well-documented, financially engineered crisis protected by silence, vested interests, and institutional decay. The NLC’s mobilisation signals a turning point; citizens are unwilling to accept official evasions while insecurity intensifies. To end this crisis, Nigeria must:
– Expose and prosecute terror financiers
– Purge corrupt insiders in the security system
– Dismantle ransom economies
– Strengthen financial intelligence
– End political protection for criminal networks
Until these reforms are pursued with integrity, billions will continue to move, weapons will continue to flow, and Nigeria will continue to bleed.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
E-Financial
FIRS says MOU with DGFIP Won’t Compromise Nigeria Tax Data Sovereignty

The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has clarified that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) recently signed with France’s Direction Générale des Finances Publiques (DGFiP) is a strictly technical assistance and capacity-building framework.

The clarification comes after talks of concerns that the MOU is a means for foreign interests to gain control over Nigeria’s sovereign tax data.
On Thursday, the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) signed an MoU with France’s Direction Générale des Finances Publiques (DGFiP).
“At no point does it grant France access to Nigerian tax data, digital infrastructure, or operational control of our systems. All Nigerian laws regarding data protection, sovereignty, and cybersecurity remain fully in force, and the MoU includes robust confidentiality and data protection provisions,” Umar Ahmed, director, Intergovernmental Affairs, Federal Inland Revenue Service, said in a recent release.
The DGFiP is one of the world’s most sophisticated tax administrations, with over 100 years of institutional experience, a workforce exceeding 90,000 professionals, and globally recognised expertise in digital tax systems, institutional governance, taxpayer services, and public finance management.
Ahmed said that the partnership is advisory, non-intrusive, and mutually beneficial, designed to strengthen FIRS’ institutional capacity as it transitions into the Nigerian Revenue Service (NRS).
“The collaboration provides Nigeria with a unique opportunity to learn from international best practices in workforce management, digital transformation, tax policy development, and regional cooperation, while ensuring that Nigeria retains full control over its tax administration and data,” he said.
Ahmed said that local technology providers are not being sidelined; FIRS continues to engage and collaborate with Nigerian innovators, including NIBSS, Interswitch, PayStack, and Flutterwave.
“The MoU is not intended to deliver technical services, but rather to provide capacity-building, advisory support, and knowledge sharing based on DGFiP’s extensive institutional experience. The collaboration focuses on institutional strengthening, workforce development, digital transformation guidance, taxpayer education, policy modernisation, and regional integration—all fully aligned with Nigeria’s sovereignty and national interests,” he said.
The director said that the service is far from compromising national control. This agreement represents a strategic initiative to modernise Nigeria’s tax administration, enhance institutional capacity, and strengthen the country’s long-term economic resilience.
“Nigeria remains fully in command of its tax systems, data, and policy direction. FIRS remains steadfast in its commitment to transparency, professionalism, and collaboration in the pursuit of national development,” Ahmed said.
E-Financial
Reps Passes Bill for Single Six-Year Tenure for CBN Governor, Deputies

House of Representatives yesterday passed second reading a bill seeking to introduce a single, non-renewable six-year tenure for the Governor and Deputy Governors of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), challenging the current CBN Act 2007 that allows an initial five-year term with reappointment option.

CBN
The legislation, jointly sponsored by Jesse Okey Joe Onuakalusi (Oshodi/Isolo Federal Constituency) and Majority Leader Julius Ihonvbere, proposes sweeping reforms to modernise the apex bank’s governance, unify the exchange rate system, ban foreign currencies for domestic transactions except via authorised channels, and align operations with international best practices.
Key provisions include separating the roles of CBN Governor and Board Chairman to curb power concentration, capping Ways and Means advances at 10 per cent of the previous year’s actual revenue to check inflationary financing, mandating 90 days’ notice with impact assessment and National Assembly briefing for currency redesign, and enhancing the Monetary Policy Committee with independent external experts plus macro-prudential tools and stress testing.
Onuakalusi, opening the debate, described the changes as “structural and forward-looking reforms” to protect the economy, restore monetary policy confidence, and bar the CBN Governor and deputies from partisan politics, stressing that the current Act no longer suits today’s realities amid past controversies like Godwin Emefiele’s tenure and the disruptive naira redesign.
He said: “The Central Bank of Nigeria is too critical an institution to operate under a framework that no longer reflects Nigeria’s economic realities or international best practices.
“This bill is not targeted at any individual or administration. It is a structural reform for economic stability, transparency, accountability, and sustainable governance.”
Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu put the bill to a voice vote, with lawmakers unanimously endorsing its passage at second reading. A similar Senate bill for a single six-year tenure had passed second reading in February 2024.
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