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No Jobs? Well The Machines Are Taking Them!

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Welcome to 2014. While many of us in developing nations are embroiled in trivial and non sequitur ethnic, religious and political/governance battles, there is a new and most powerful ‘race’ that is slowly but steadily conquering the world and promising to deprive us of what we yet have today, and the job security we aspire for.

Knowing that most criminality and terror is rooted in competition for opportunity, land and the pursuit of happiness, I dare say we are lucky… that we have not yet been allowed to advance, thanks to our frictions, and as such do not yet critically experience this most serious and unavoidable new competitive threat to humanity.

We can barely cope with human-human competition, talk less the machine revolution.

The job loss in America, as much as it is blamed on simple and rather comforting explanations like, increased global competitiveness, exporting jobs, inept administrative policies and the like; is highly attributable to this new ‘race’ of monsters.

It is the machines; the blessing of advancing technology, creating a race of gadgets that are surely and steadily replacing jobs, primarily in the ‘developed’ world and eventually everywhere.

This December, the CEO of Amazon, the world’s biggest online store, Jeff Bezos revealed the companies “Prime Air” drone project which intends to deliver light weight packages to customers within 30 minutes of clicking ‘buy now.’ 80% of Amazon orders are lightweight; this translates to almost 80% replacement of human low skill deliveryman labor.

UPS, the world’s largest package delivery company is also researching the utility of drone technology to deliver packages. All these are in the test phase and are expected to fully roll out within the next 4 years.

Already in the biggest stores like Wal-Mart, machines have been replacing most human checkout kiosks/tills. And the thing about these automatic checkout points is their humanness.

They, unlike simple computers of the past, interact in conversation style with the customer. The machines say, ‘welcome,’ ‘please scan your item;’ ‘please put it in the bag.’ And wish you off with a friendly bye-bye, ‘thanks for shopping with us.’

By the end of 2014, there will be 430,000 self-checkout points in Wal-Mart stores around the United States. That is almost half a million jobs lost in the US. It takes only one attendant to supervise up to six checkout lanes.

The same trend has been occurring in BJ’s, CVS, M&S and practically all major retail stores worldwide.

This equals millions of every day staff who are being laid off by a better ‘race,’ the race of machines. US president Barack Obama can simply not catch-up with this rate of job replacement by machines that are cheap to operate, do not require health-care, do not complain, are always punctual and are purchased only once for a fraction of the yearly wage of a human, and work continuously, no pain, no lunch-break, no monthly cycle, no pregnancy, no picking-up kids, no leave; requiring only occasional visits by technicians.

But it gets even worse—for us mortals, that is.

It’s not only low skill labor that is at risk of replacement by machines, but practically all types of professions, bar none.

Our years of interactions through machines, like the computer-internet, our cell phones, and all other devices, has provided an invaluable pool of information about human interaction that is being mined and researched on by Google, faceBook and other central corporations.

Do not think you are so unique, or your reasoning is peculiar to human beings and not replaceable with machines.

Ever spoke to an automated machine on the phone before? Think about how these have advanced over the years, also reducing several phone desk staff with single automated responders which interact with you and try their best to resolve your problem before finally transferring you to a live agent.

As time goes on, these automatic telephone responders are being developed to handle more and more in conversation style with customers.

I must interject, at this time, that the only thing we (man) have up on machines is a soul. But that’s a whole other conversation.

Google CEO Eric Schmidt is excited about the possibilities and what he is achieving with quantum computing. He is on a mission to develop technologies to replace virtually all human endeavors. He projects practically all careers will be replaceable in 4-9 years.

It’s rather quite simple. Introduce a quantum calculating computer to a physician setting. First load it with all the medical text book information; then allow it to digest 1,000,000 typical doctor patient interactions, with questions and doctor prescriptions.

The result will be a computer that can replace a physician.

You think this is extreme? Well, it has already been developed. Did you watch the Jeopardy-bot, IBM’s Watson, “cognitive computer,” which was able to defeat the world’s smartest competitor in the tough verbal question show? Indiana University researchers demonstrated that a new computer program was 42% better than doctors at both diagnosing and treating health conditions.

 And the machines ‘charge’ one third what human doctors charge for the same service. Start thinking of the “Doctor App” on your Android or iPhone soon, which will replace 90% of clinic visits.

We are talking about AI (Artificial Intelligence); which is in its final stages of development. These AI machines can replace almost every job.

Computers that can think, and perhaps think better than you, in addition to having a 1000xs better retentive memory capacity.

Today these machines are being introduced not yet to replace doctors, but to complement them and reduce their work load.

The Robo-Doctor kiosk which has been introduced at Wal-Mart locations in America is a health-care screening machine which interacts with patients and asks relevant questions, gathering standard health-care information that physicians, nurses or other health-care staff usually retrieve, including height and vision tests and then giving basic health-care advice and recommending specialist care. It starts with these, and then with the rate of advancement of technology, before we know it, thousands of health-care professional jobs will be replaced.

And if medical jobs are at risk, then what field is safe? Engineering? AI’s can produce hundreds of technical designs and fixes per second.

It will all depend on the software and upgrades you can afford to purchase from AI developers like Google; developed thanks to the invaluable information our simple interactions on the internet, like ‘liking’ beautiful buildings, cars and clothes, to engineers actual designs uploaded into computer clouds, provide.

And they make sense. Why hire six Engineers, when you can hire two and purchase an AI that churns out 100s of models per minute?

The challenge of the machines is extremely wide. You only have to imagine and do a quick search to see what field still promises job security.

Bank tellers have been replaced with automated cash machines. Mechanized farming allows 4 farmers to replace 400.

Even Taxi drivers and chauffeur services are not safe as driver-less cars are in full development and being tested by major companies.

What of our emotional engagements? When you send a text to a loved one, what is your guarantee that the response you got from their phone was thought of and sent by them?

What if and when our phones have software that recognizes our patterns and can be put on autopilot when we sleep for instance or are busy, to respond with our usual chat pattern with old and new acquaintances, possibly screening them for us and only forwarding those that they ‘think’ might strike our interest or have emergency needs, to us to continue the chat?

The world is changing. In Africa, things may not yet have developed or advanced to this level, but we do share the risks and need to take advantage of the opportunities.

At this time, where we do not face such job replacement by computers, African nations should have a job boom.

Rather there already is a critical shortage, with great percentages of our youth, unemployed, while technology for chaos is advancing likewise and readily available.

This is a serious problem that must be critically analyzed, because when the machine ‘race’ joins our present bloody competition and erodes more jobs in Africa as it has already in much of Europe, what will be the outcome in terms of jobless terror?

For those of us who work or seek careers abroad, one must consider long-term job security when selecting a profession. You just cannot go wrong with computers and entertainment. Unfortunately I can’t say the same for marketing, manufacturing, and even professional careers like medicine, law and engineering. In your career field, you want to make yourself indispensable. Someone, a researcher or computer skilled programmer/developer who will still be employed till the tail end of the machine race replacement era.

Google’s Eric Schmidt in a recent Zeitgeist meeting excitedly described social robots in the development phase.

Robots he is anxious to send in his stead to public functions (in the “dangerous night”), that will be able to interact; smile, talk and think just like him, and then come home to plug into a system and upload their engagements of the night for his perusal the next day.
These changes are projected in the next four years. There are so many things to think about.
Dr. Peregrino Brimah
http://ENDS.ng [Every Nigerian Do Something]
Email: [email protected] Twitter: @EveryNigerian


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Nigeria CommunicationsWeek believes that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. So since 2007, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and how they affect lives.

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Dufil Prima Foods Brings Relief to Indigent Families in Abeokuta

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Dufil Prima Foods, makers of Indomie instant noodles, in partnership with the Human Rights and Grassroots Development Society, extended its goodwill to the shores of Abeokuta, Ogun state, at a product distribution event on Tuesday 24 April, where cartons of Indomie noodles were distributed to the underprivileged, as part of its ongoing efforts to support families worst hit by the ongoing economic hardship.

The event which saw a thousand vulnerable families go home with a carton of Indomie each, individuals present were also provided with cooked noodles to help relieve their immediate hunger.

The outreach had in attendance members of the disabled community, orphans, widows, the elderly, pregnant women, and vulnerable families.

The outreach is in alignment with the brand’s goal to feed two million consumers across various cities and communities in Nigeria, by collaborating closely with recognized NGOs to ensure that only the most vulnerable persons in the various cities and communities are invited and given a carton of Indomie and a fresh bowl of the nourishing tasty noodles.

The event was graced with the presence of notable dignitaries including the representative of the Commissioner for Women Affairs and Social Development in Ogun State, Mrs. Wonuola Kassim; the Ogun State Chapter Chairman of the Nigeria Labour Congress, Comrade Hammeed-Bello Aderinola; a representative of the Sector Commander of the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), Superintendent Adeoye Adejoke Asake; the Chairman of the Ogun State Police Community Relations Committee (PCRC), Venerable (Dr.) Samson Kunle Popoola, Chairman of the Peace Initiative Network, Dr. Femi Sodipo , and Trace PRO, CDR. Babatunde Akinbiyi, amongst others.

Mrs. Wonuola Kassim in her keynote address, commended the efforts of Dufil Prima Foods Ltd, and acknowledged that this was not the company’s first CSR initiative as she recalled that it had embarked on a similar venture in 2020.

“This program cannot be more timely than a time like this, when to feed becomes very difficult for most people. This is the kind of gesture which would linger for ages in the hearts of the beneficiaries. The objective of the palliative distribution is to alleviate the hardship faced by the citizens due to the recent removal of fuel subsidy by the Federal Government”, she said.

Speaking in the same vein, Popoola of the PCRC said: “We believe in PCRC that food security and eradication of hunger will go a long way in reducing the level of criminality in our society. What we have seen today is a conscious effort on the part of the organisers to see to the eradication of poverty, eradication of hunger and to support the food security initiative of the Government”.

Other dignitaries present also expressed their gratitude for Indomie and the organisers of the event, the Human Rights and Grassroots Development Society. They commended their efforts for taking the right steps to ensure that families across the country are catered for in these challenging times.

Indomie Instant Noodles remains steadfast in its quest to provide satisfaction and put smiles on the faces of families across Nigeria.


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Defending the foundations for connectivity

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By Engr. Gbenga Adebayo

In 2001, when the first GSM call was made in Nigeria how many of us would have envisaged the digital world that we live in today? The pace of growth and the rate of adoption of telecoms solutions in Nigeria has been revolutionary. It is a globally acknowledged case study that we should be proud of and a clear demonstration of what can be achieved.

Almost all of us today are reliant on the network connectivity that it has enabled in different shapes and forms. From the simple need to communicate with loved ones, to the digital platforms that enable our access to and consumption of entertainment, financial products and other critical services. Our reliance on these systems is becoming more and more acute, whether it is citizens, governments, or corporations. System downtime is increasingly disruptive and offline manual redundancies are often in the advanced stages of being phased out. The pace of this transition is not slowing down. With the core infrastructure in place, innovation is driving the exponential growth of services that ride on it. From the fully adopted social media that has changed the way we interact, to the emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution.

While this innovation is enabling exciting new possibilities, there is a tendency to focus on those opportunities, to the detriment of the core infrastructure on which it rides. It is imperative that we retain a focus on the optimisation of that infrastructure and enable continued investment in its development. We have seen how the transition from 2G, through to 3G, 4G and 5G have each enabled the development of more and more sophisticated solutions.

The continued development of core infrastructure has to be sustainable, and over the last few months we have begun to see the challenges that the operators that provide it are facing. Both MTN and Airtel have declared significant foreign exchange (FX) losses in Nigeria, and the stress is not linked to them alone. The entire ecosystem is battling with a range of challenges that must be addressed. If we fail to do so, the downstream impact on innovation will be severe. Telecoms infrastructure requires a base level of investment to maintain its current capabilities, and significant additional investment to expand and grow. It is capital intensive and that capital has to be generated through sustainable business models.

At the heart of the challenge the industry faces is the issue of rising costs. Recent financial losses are directly linked to the cost of operating towers that rely on inputs like diesel, which have increased significantly as the Naira has depreciated. The provisions large telecom companies have had to make, and the consequent losses and impact on their reserves is a red flag. It tells us that business as usual is not sustainable. If we continue as we are, then those companies will struggle to continue to invest in and maintain existing services.

But those costs are not the only challenge. General cost inflation, multiple taxation, regular and damaging vandalisation of infrastructure and the costs associated with regulatory compliance all help contribute to the high cost of operations. We cannot continue to follow a path that asks those companies to simply accept those rising costs. It is no longer sustainable, and we have reached an inflection point.

This is a critical moment for the industry. How we approach and resolve it will define the future of Nigeria’s digital economy. If you want to be able to enjoy the benefits that digitisation brings. If we want the infrastructure that enables AI and helps us drive growth, then we must take action now.

Cost-reflective tariffs, like it or not, are simply non-negotiable. We have seen the impact of price controls in other segments of the economy, like power. If providers cannot operate sustainable business models, then they stop investing. When that happens, the existing infrastructure starts to crumble. For power, a consumer can choose to take ownership of the solution by buying a generator, or a solar panel. For fuel, the government can step in as the provider of last resort and manage a subsidy regime that mitigates the impact on the population. Those options are not available in the telecoms sector. There is no self-help solution.

We fully understand and appreciate the financial stress that Nigerians are experiencing today. The cost of living is the single most significant factor in most people’s daily lives. But those people are still able to enjoy the benefits that connectivity brings, at the price they paid before these challenges became so acute. Imagine a future in which the gains of the last twenty years are reversed. Nigeria, and Nigerians simply cannot afford it. The pain that we would feel under those circumstances would be exponentially worse.

We need to find a long-term, sustainable and manageable solution to this problem. Prices will need to rise, but action needs to be taken in a measured way, through sustainable conversations and partnership with the government. It is time to address this head on.

Engr. Gbenga Adebayo is the Chairman, Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON)


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LCCI Urges FG to Simplify Trade Procedures to Boost Economy

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has said that the government needs to simplify and harmonize trade procedures and address bottlenecks in order to boost economic growth in the country.

President of LCCI, Mr. Gabriel Idahosa, gave the charge at a Quarterly media briefing on the State of the Economy yesterday in Lagos.

He said that the government has to create an atmosphere that promotes export growth and competitiveness, which is projected to boost export earnings, raise domestic revenue, improve citizens’ welfare, and increase business productivity.

“We recommend that reforms must include simplifying and harmonizing trade procedures as well as addressing bottlenecks such as port logistics, congestion, and transportation costs. This is expected to position the country as the commercial centre of the region and a springboard into regional value chains,” he stated.

On managing the persistent high inflation, the LCCI president said both monetary and fiscal authorities should focus on the factors driving the inflation rates by tackling the supply-side deficiencies instead of focusing too much attention on the demand-side management.

“We urge the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to continue with its foreign exchange (forex) market reforms with intense discipline, as the high exchange rate against the naira is a major driver of the skyrocketing inflation rates.”

Idahosa acknowledged the improvement in the naira exchange rate in the last few days, moving towards the level of N1000 per dollar or lower.

“CBN needs to sustain its policy and regulatory reforms in the FX market, adopt policies that would attract more FX inflow into the economy as well as build market confidence in the performance of the FX market,” he added.

 


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