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AFEX Releases Annual Commodity Outlook for 2023, Predicts a Decline in Production of Grain Commodities

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Nigeria’s commodities market player, AFEX, unveiled its Annual Commodities Outlook report for 2023 in a virtual event on Tuesday, forecasting that the impact of flooding, devaluation of the naira, high logistics costs, and the social-political situation in the country will keep commodity prices at historically high levels, amid concerns of an impending food crisis and global recession.

The report attributes this surge in prices to the low production volume of maize, paddy rice, sorghum, and cocoa. These commodities declined by an average of 11.5% in the 2022/23 trading season due to price-induced low fertiliser usage because of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Climate change realities such as flooding also had a significant effect on the market among other unfavourable conditions. The Annual Commodities Outlook by AFEX also alludes to price pressures being exacerbated by the fact that 2023 is an election year, which could cause some market uncertainty.

In his remarks, during the report launch, David Ibidapo, Head, Market Data and Research at AFEX, explained that, “Every year, AFEX reviews Nigeria’s commodity market and gives an in-depth analysis of the outlook for the new year.

In the last 2 to 3 years, we have seen the commodities market susceptible to global shocks, as evidenced by the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis on supply chain and food prices.

It’s then critical to monitor the market closely and give an objective picture of these agricultural commodities which would bring transparency and clarity in a bid to ameliorate the impact of the next global shock.”

Despite the economic slowdown, the report reveals that the agricultural sector still shows resilience as it outperformed most sectors, including trade, oil and gas, telecoms, and manufacturing, contributing 27.6% to Nigeria’s GDP in Q3 of 2022.  However, food inflation rose for nine consecutive months in the year reaching an all-high 24.13% in November 2022.

For 2023, the report further reveals that inflationary pressures will continue to rise due to decline in the production of major grain commodities thereby reducing the supply level in the domestic market.

Providing the outlook for the global commodities market, the report predicts that Maize prices will decrease by 8% in 2023, while prices for wheat, which were anticipated to rise by 36% in 2022, will slightly fall in 2023. Meanwhile, the average price of rice which decreased by 5% in 2022 is forecast to remain the same this year.

In the international scene, “The fertiliser index which rose by 66% in 2022, is projected to decline by 12% in 2023 as supply disruptions gradually subside. Increased input costs, new sanctions on Belarus and Russia, and lengthened export restrictions by China are all positive risks to the forecast.

However, the commissioning of some fertiliser plants, which have not yet ramped up to full capacity in 2022, will suppress the positive risks” the report reads.

Speaking on the commodities outlook for the year, Oluwafunto Olasemo, Vice President, Financial Markets at AFEX said, “The shift in global commodities supply has greatly influenced the commodity market and exposed the vulnerabilities in our food system. There is a growing imbalance between the food supply and the demand of the growing population, putting upward pressure on prices.

Developing a holistic approach to mitigate food insecurity and improve the shocks to climatic change, inadequate financing, and low access to efficient markets is a priority. With this report, we seek to provide high-quality, timely, accurate, and accessible data for investors while addressing the real pressing issues of the agricultural sector in Nigeria.”

AFEX has long recognized that farmers are part of the social fabric of Africa’s commodities market, hence, robust data is essential to identifying solutions that address food system challenges, build trust, and increase the capacity of supply chain businesses for farmers, processors, investors, and other key stakeholders in the value chain.

Mainstreaming environmental sustainability, and prioritising policies that encourage public and private sector players to work together to improve farmers’ productivity and transform food systems is thus a key recommendation from the report to pave the way for sustainable solutions.


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Air Peace: Strategies to Gain Competitive Advantage in the Battle for the Skies

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By Austin Okere

Congratulations to Air Peace on its inaugural flight to London and for achieving full bookings for the upcoming months, thanks to attractive ticket prices. Over the past fortnight, Air Peace has been making waves on social media for various reasons.

On a positive note, the airline shared a LinkedIn post featuring a picture of former Nigerian President, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, aboard a return flight to London.

The caption highlighted his positive experience, stating, “I went, it was pleasant. I came back, it was even more pleasant.”

However, on a different note, Nigeria Stories recently reported that the United Kingdom Civil Aviation Authority has contacted Nigeria’s Civil Aviation Authority regarding alleged violations of aviation safety regulations by Air Peace.

The significance of Air Peace’s impact on airfares along the Lagos-London route cannot be overstated. Since commencing operations on March 30, Air Peace has maintained its round-trip economy ticket price at $1,000 (₦1.2 million), a substantial reduction compared to the previous rates charged by international airlines, which could soar up to $2,500 (₦3 million).

This bold pricing approach has disrupted the established norms, prompting foreign carriers to reassess their pricing frameworks.

To uphold customer loyalty and ensure long-term viability, it is imperative for Air Peace to explore additional strategies for differentiation. I have outlined these strategies using Austin’s Four Models of Competitive Strategies below:

  1. Technological Leadership

This approach is commonly embraced by firms that have secured a substantial leadership edge on the innovation spectrum. Their dominant position within their specific market niche is profound, making it exceedingly challenging for competitors to replicate or close the gap. Companies like Apple, Alphabet, Airbus, SpaceX, Netflix, and Tesla, among others, adeptly employ this strategy to significant effect.

Typically, they command premium prices for their offerings, allowing for greater investment in ongoing research and expertise, thus fortifying their technological supremacy and perpetuating their cycle of success.

  1. Service Excellence

This strategy is often embraced by companies that may not necessarily lead in technology but excel in delivery and customer experience to secure patronage and foster loyalty. Airlines like Emirates, Singapore Airlines, Qatar Airways, and Japan Airlines consistently rank among the world’s top 10 airlines as voted by travelers worldwide, thereby drawing more patronage.

3. Customer Intimacy (Personalized Customer Engagement)

This approach is predominantly employed by companies that strive to create a familial bond with their customers. They foster a sense of intimacy with their clientele, exemplified by Ghana’s Africa World Airways (AWA), which has established a reputation for punctuality in West African travel.

Air Peace appears to be following suit with this strategy, offering popular Nigerian cuisine and beverages on the Lagos-London route, and outfitting their crew in vibrant Nigerian attire. Companies employing this strategy often boast prolonged customer retention rates. They possess a deep understanding of their customers, accommodating their unique preferences, while customers reciprocate with steadfast loyalty.

  1. Cost Leadership

This strategy is predominantly adopted by companies that have enjoyed an early lead in product development and launch, leveraging the returns on their investments over time. They employ low pricing to dissuade competitors from entering the market. A classic example is Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola.

Additionally, other companies that may employ this strategy are those that have accessed the experiences and intellectual property of more advanced competitors without incurring the costs and challenges of research and development. They are content to price their products relatively lower to attract patronage.

Many established companies with mature infrastructure also aim to increase their market share through periodic sales promotions, satisfied with extracting contribution margin from fixed costs.

Airlines often utilize this strategy during low seasons to improve their load factor rather than flying with empty seats or cargo space. They prefer to capture customers at any price rather than allow competitors to benefit from lost sales.

Bringing it All Together

In the fiercely competitive landscape of the airline industry, pricing strategies serve as a cornerstone in attracting passengers and maintaining a competitive edge. Employing competitor pricing, a dynamic and data-informed approach, enables airlines to swiftly adapt to market fluctuations and consumer preferences while optimizing revenue streams.

Airlines continuously fine-tune their fares in response to market dynamics, competitive maneuvers, and various other factors, employing a seamless and automated process to uphold competitiveness, optimize load factors, and maximize revenue streams.

While competitive pricing may serve as an initial strategy to penetrate the market and garner market share, I am cautious about relying solely on it for sustained success. It’s essential to recognize that no matter how aggressively priced one may be, there’s always someone offering a lower fare.

This approach risks triggering a downward spiral in pricing, potentially leading to a race to the bottom. In such a scenario, financially robust incumbents may outlast vulnerable newcomers, only to subsequently increase prices to recoup lost revenue once the newcomers are forced out of the market. This fate should not befall Air Peace.

Austin Okere is a thought leader, and business mentor. An Entrepreneur-in-Residence at Columbia Business School, New York.

 

 


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d.light Provides 10,000 Solar Home Systems to Refugees

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d.light, the global provider of transformational household products and affordable finance for low-income households, is providing 10,000 subsidized solar home systems to refugees who have fled conflict in South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo and who are now living in refugee camps in Northern and Western Uganda.

The 10,000 units are part of a wider initiative to supply 23,000 solar home systems to Ugandan refugee communities.

The project is being funded by a USD$3.4M grant from Private Sector Foundation Uganda (PSFU), a body made up of business associations, companies and public sector agencies in Uganda: and Energising Development (EnDev), an international programme by the German, Dutch, Norwegian and Swiss governments to provide access to affordable, reliable, sustainable energy for delivering social, economic, and environmental change.

The project began in April and is scheduled to run for 12 months. Funds from the grant are subject to results based financing (RBF) and d.light will only receive funding for solar home systems that have been installed.

Each solar home system from d.light features three high-efficiency LED lights, an FM radio with MP3 playback, mobile phone charging capability, and a portable solar flashlight.

Commenting on the news, d.light’s Managing Director for Uganda Douglas Gavala said, “With this grant, we can expand the important work we’re doing to improve living conditions for underserved refugee communities from South Sudan, the DRC and elsewhere who are living in refugee camps in Uganda.

“A solar home system significantly improves the quality of life and wellbeing of a household – whether it’s providing entertainment or letting a family stay up to date on local and global news on the radio or enabling children to continue reading and studying after dark.

“As well as benefits at home, d.light products also bolster household income in Uganda’s refugee settlements by extending working hours for tradespeople and small businesses, and providing an income for residents who work as d.light salespeople in the settlements.

“By providing high-quality solar products at an affordable price, we are improving the quality of life for displaced people while simultaneously encouraging economic activity at a grassroots level.”

 


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DG NITDA Reiterates Needs for Safe and Inclusive Digital Environment

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To forge strategic partnerships and collaboration for the advancement of Nigeria’s digital transformation Agenda, the Director General of the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), Kashifu Inuwa has reiterated the need for a safe and inclusive online environment responsible for human and Artificial Intelligence (AI) practices in country.

Inuwa made the statement while playing host to a team from TikTok who visited Agency’s Corporate Headquarters in Abuja to seek alliance towards bolstering the country, which aligns with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu priority area of strengthening national security for peace and prosperity.

The DG stated that content moderation strategies will help in addressing online problems like hate speech, misinformation, and cyberbullying in relation to the protection of minors across the country.

“With the Code of practice for Interactive Computer Service Platforms/Internet Intermediaries in place, this has helped in ensuring digital safety in accordance with global best practice and content moderation to enhance security”, he said.

He further noted that “no organisation or institution can operate in silos, we need each other for the actualisation of our goals and objectives towards services delivery and for the advancement of the Nation.”

Highlighting some critical areas, Inuwa stated that leveraging on the platform will advance the country through Digital Literacy 4 All (DL4ALL), Capacity Building, knowledge sharing, trainings, and curbing misinformation, digital safety with the aim of creating a safer cyber space and empowering online environment for Nigerian users.

He added that the platform allows for creative expression through filters, stickers, and editing tools, entertainment and comedy are dominant themes, and informational videos on various topics are gaining traction which has become a launchpad for influencers and trends that can go viral.

Inuwa also explained that NITDA’s Strategic Roadmap and Action Plan 2.0 (SRAP 2024-2027) is structured around eight pillars which include; Fostering Digital Literacy and Cultivating Talents, Building a Robust Technology Research Ecosystem, Strengthening Policy Implementation and Legal Frameworks, Promoting Inclusive Access to Digital Infrastructure and Services, Enhancing Cybersecurity and Digital Trust, Nurturing an Innovative and Entrepreneurial Ecosystem, Forging Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations, and Cultivating a Vibrant organisational Culture with an Agile Workforce.

In her earlier remarks, the Head of Government Regulation and Public Policy TikTok Nigeria and West Africa, Mrs Tokunbo Ibrahim has revealed that NITDA is one of its biggest and critical stakeholders in Nigeria that has an outstanding strides and performance in advancing the digital economy sector.

Ibrahim commended NITDA for its various initiatives, programmes, and policies set in place and aligns with that of TikTok, providing the opportunity were Nigerians use the platform to market, sell and export their products and services as well as talents to the outside world and make a living out of it.
She pointed out that there are projects and programmes that TikTok platform has forge ties of collaboration with, like the Africa creator hub where they do campaigns for tech creator, support, empower, and educate them on how to create contents and explore other sections of the platform, changing their narrative and adding values to what they are doing.

Ibrahim also added that TikTok platform considers online safety as one of its critical areas to secure the cyber space by providing an avenue for users to thrive and be productive in their various activities.

TikTok is currently running African mall to push the narrative of Africa to the world and creators are being equipped with information that they can create contents for products and services in Nigeria, thus can be exported to other countries of the world attracting investments


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