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AFEX Releases Annual Commodity Outlook for 2023, Predicts a Decline in Production of Grain Commodities

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Nigeria’s commodities market player, AFEX, unveiled its Annual Commodities Outlook report for 2023 in a virtual event on Tuesday, forecasting that the impact of flooding, devaluation of the naira, high logistics costs, and the social-political situation in the country will keep commodity prices at historically high levels, amid concerns of an impending food crisis and global recession.

The report attributes this surge in prices to the low production volume of maize, paddy rice, sorghum, and cocoa. These commodities declined by an average of 11.5% in the 2022/23 trading season due to price-induced low fertiliser usage because of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Climate change realities such as flooding also had a significant effect on the market among other unfavourable conditions. The Annual Commodities Outlook by AFEX also alludes to price pressures being exacerbated by the fact that 2023 is an election year, which could cause some market uncertainty.

In his remarks, during the report launch, David Ibidapo, Head, Market Data and Research at AFEX, explained that, “Every year, AFEX reviews Nigeria’s commodity market and gives an in-depth analysis of the outlook for the new year.

In the last 2 to 3 years, we have seen the commodities market susceptible to global shocks, as evidenced by the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis on supply chain and food prices.

It’s then critical to monitor the market closely and give an objective picture of these agricultural commodities which would bring transparency and clarity in a bid to ameliorate the impact of the next global shock.”

Despite the economic slowdown, the report reveals that the agricultural sector still shows resilience as it outperformed most sectors, including trade, oil and gas, telecoms, and manufacturing, contributing 27.6% to Nigeria’s GDP in Q3 of 2022.  However, food inflation rose for nine consecutive months in the year reaching an all-high 24.13% in November 2022.

For 2023, the report further reveals that inflationary pressures will continue to rise due to decline in the production of major grain commodities thereby reducing the supply level in the domestic market.

Providing the outlook for the global commodities market, the report predicts that Maize prices will decrease by 8% in 2023, while prices for wheat, which were anticipated to rise by 36% in 2022, will slightly fall in 2023. Meanwhile, the average price of rice which decreased by 5% in 2022 is forecast to remain the same this year.

In the international scene, “The fertiliser index which rose by 66% in 2022, is projected to decline by 12% in 2023 as supply disruptions gradually subside. Increased input costs, new sanctions on Belarus and Russia, and lengthened export restrictions by China are all positive risks to the forecast.

However, the commissioning of some fertiliser plants, which have not yet ramped up to full capacity in 2022, will suppress the positive risks” the report reads.

Speaking on the commodities outlook for the year, Oluwafunto Olasemo, Vice President, Financial Markets at AFEX said, “The shift in global commodities supply has greatly influenced the commodity market and exposed the vulnerabilities in our food system. There is a growing imbalance between the food supply and the demand of the growing population, putting upward pressure on prices.

Developing a holistic approach to mitigate food insecurity and improve the shocks to climatic change, inadequate financing, and low access to efficient markets is a priority. With this report, we seek to provide high-quality, timely, accurate, and accessible data for investors while addressing the real pressing issues of the agricultural sector in Nigeria.”

AFEX has long recognized that farmers are part of the social fabric of Africa’s commodities market, hence, robust data is essential to identifying solutions that address food system challenges, build trust, and increase the capacity of supply chain businesses for farmers, processors, investors, and other key stakeholders in the value chain.

Mainstreaming environmental sustainability, and prioritising policies that encourage public and private sector players to work together to improve farmers’ productivity and transform food systems is thus a key recommendation from the report to pave the way for sustainable solutions.


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Dufil Prima Foods Brings Relief to Indigent Families in Abeokuta

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Dufil Prima Foods, makers of Indomie instant noodles, in partnership with the Human Rights and Grassroots Development Society, extended its goodwill to the shores of Abeokuta, Ogun state, at a product distribution event on Tuesday 24 April, where cartons of Indomie noodles were distributed to the underprivileged, as part of its ongoing efforts to support families worst hit by the ongoing economic hardship.

The event which saw a thousand vulnerable families go home with a carton of Indomie each, individuals present were also provided with cooked noodles to help relieve their immediate hunger.

The outreach had in attendance members of the disabled community, orphans, widows, the elderly, pregnant women, and vulnerable families.

The outreach is in alignment with the brand’s goal to feed two million consumers across various cities and communities in Nigeria, by collaborating closely with recognized NGOs to ensure that only the most vulnerable persons in the various cities and communities are invited and given a carton of Indomie and a fresh bowl of the nourishing tasty noodles.

The event was graced with the presence of notable dignitaries including the representative of the Commissioner for Women Affairs and Social Development in Ogun State, Mrs. Wonuola Kassim; the Ogun State Chapter Chairman of the Nigeria Labour Congress, Comrade Hammeed-Bello Aderinola; a representative of the Sector Commander of the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), Superintendent Adeoye Adejoke Asake; the Chairman of the Ogun State Police Community Relations Committee (PCRC), Venerable (Dr.) Samson Kunle Popoola, Chairman of the Peace Initiative Network, Dr. Femi Sodipo , and Trace PRO, CDR. Babatunde Akinbiyi, amongst others.

Mrs. Wonuola Kassim in her keynote address, commended the efforts of Dufil Prima Foods Ltd, and acknowledged that this was not the company’s first CSR initiative as she recalled that it had embarked on a similar venture in 2020.

“This program cannot be more timely than a time like this, when to feed becomes very difficult for most people. This is the kind of gesture which would linger for ages in the hearts of the beneficiaries. The objective of the palliative distribution is to alleviate the hardship faced by the citizens due to the recent removal of fuel subsidy by the Federal Government”, she said.

Speaking in the same vein, Popoola of the PCRC said: “We believe in PCRC that food security and eradication of hunger will go a long way in reducing the level of criminality in our society. What we have seen today is a conscious effort on the part of the organisers to see to the eradication of poverty, eradication of hunger and to support the food security initiative of the Government”.

Other dignitaries present also expressed their gratitude for Indomie and the organisers of the event, the Human Rights and Grassroots Development Society. They commended their efforts for taking the right steps to ensure that families across the country are catered for in these challenging times.

Indomie Instant Noodles remains steadfast in its quest to provide satisfaction and put smiles on the faces of families across Nigeria.


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Defending the foundations for connectivity

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By Engr. Gbenga Adebayo

In 2001, when the first GSM call was made in Nigeria how many of us would have envisaged the digital world that we live in today? The pace of growth and the rate of adoption of telecoms solutions in Nigeria has been revolutionary. It is a globally acknowledged case study that we should be proud of and a clear demonstration of what can be achieved.

Almost all of us today are reliant on the network connectivity that it has enabled in different shapes and forms. From the simple need to communicate with loved ones, to the digital platforms that enable our access to and consumption of entertainment, financial products and other critical services. Our reliance on these systems is becoming more and more acute, whether it is citizens, governments, or corporations. System downtime is increasingly disruptive and offline manual redundancies are often in the advanced stages of being phased out. The pace of this transition is not slowing down. With the core infrastructure in place, innovation is driving the exponential growth of services that ride on it. From the fully adopted social media that has changed the way we interact, to the emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution.

While this innovation is enabling exciting new possibilities, there is a tendency to focus on those opportunities, to the detriment of the core infrastructure on which it rides. It is imperative that we retain a focus on the optimisation of that infrastructure and enable continued investment in its development. We have seen how the transition from 2G, through to 3G, 4G and 5G have each enabled the development of more and more sophisticated solutions.

The continued development of core infrastructure has to be sustainable, and over the last few months we have begun to see the challenges that the operators that provide it are facing. Both MTN and Airtel have declared significant foreign exchange (FX) losses in Nigeria, and the stress is not linked to them alone. The entire ecosystem is battling with a range of challenges that must be addressed. If we fail to do so, the downstream impact on innovation will be severe. Telecoms infrastructure requires a base level of investment to maintain its current capabilities, and significant additional investment to expand and grow. It is capital intensive and that capital has to be generated through sustainable business models.

At the heart of the challenge the industry faces is the issue of rising costs. Recent financial losses are directly linked to the cost of operating towers that rely on inputs like diesel, which have increased significantly as the Naira has depreciated. The provisions large telecom companies have had to make, and the consequent losses and impact on their reserves is a red flag. It tells us that business as usual is not sustainable. If we continue as we are, then those companies will struggle to continue to invest in and maintain existing services.

But those costs are not the only challenge. General cost inflation, multiple taxation, regular and damaging vandalisation of infrastructure and the costs associated with regulatory compliance all help contribute to the high cost of operations. We cannot continue to follow a path that asks those companies to simply accept those rising costs. It is no longer sustainable, and we have reached an inflection point.

This is a critical moment for the industry. How we approach and resolve it will define the future of Nigeria’s digital economy. If you want to be able to enjoy the benefits that digitisation brings. If we want the infrastructure that enables AI and helps us drive growth, then we must take action now.

Cost-reflective tariffs, like it or not, are simply non-negotiable. We have seen the impact of price controls in other segments of the economy, like power. If providers cannot operate sustainable business models, then they stop investing. When that happens, the existing infrastructure starts to crumble. For power, a consumer can choose to take ownership of the solution by buying a generator, or a solar panel. For fuel, the government can step in as the provider of last resort and manage a subsidy regime that mitigates the impact on the population. Those options are not available in the telecoms sector. There is no self-help solution.

We fully understand and appreciate the financial stress that Nigerians are experiencing today. The cost of living is the single most significant factor in most people’s daily lives. But those people are still able to enjoy the benefits that connectivity brings, at the price they paid before these challenges became so acute. Imagine a future in which the gains of the last twenty years are reversed. Nigeria, and Nigerians simply cannot afford it. The pain that we would feel under those circumstances would be exponentially worse.

We need to find a long-term, sustainable and manageable solution to this problem. Prices will need to rise, but action needs to be taken in a measured way, through sustainable conversations and partnership with the government. It is time to address this head on.

Engr. Gbenga Adebayo is the Chairman, Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON)


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LCCI Urges FG to Simplify Trade Procedures to Boost Economy

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has said that the government needs to simplify and harmonize trade procedures and address bottlenecks in order to boost economic growth in the country.

President of LCCI, Mr. Gabriel Idahosa, gave the charge at a Quarterly media briefing on the State of the Economy yesterday in Lagos.

He said that the government has to create an atmosphere that promotes export growth and competitiveness, which is projected to boost export earnings, raise domestic revenue, improve citizens’ welfare, and increase business productivity.

“We recommend that reforms must include simplifying and harmonizing trade procedures as well as addressing bottlenecks such as port logistics, congestion, and transportation costs. This is expected to position the country as the commercial centre of the region and a springboard into regional value chains,” he stated.

On managing the persistent high inflation, the LCCI president said both monetary and fiscal authorities should focus on the factors driving the inflation rates by tackling the supply-side deficiencies instead of focusing too much attention on the demand-side management.

“We urge the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to continue with its foreign exchange (forex) market reforms with intense discipline, as the high exchange rate against the naira is a major driver of the skyrocketing inflation rates.”

Idahosa acknowledged the improvement in the naira exchange rate in the last few days, moving towards the level of N1000 per dollar or lower.

“CBN needs to sustain its policy and regulatory reforms in the FX market, adopt policies that would attract more FX inflow into the economy as well as build market confidence in the performance of the FX market,” he added.

 


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