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AFEX Releases Annual Commodity Outlook for 2023, Predicts a Decline in Production of Grain Commodities

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Nigeria’s commodities market player, AFEX, unveiled its Annual Commodities Outlook report for 2023 in a virtual event on Tuesday, forecasting that the impact of flooding, devaluation of the naira, high logistics costs, and the social-political situation in the country will keep commodity prices at historically high levels, amid concerns of an impending food crisis and global recession.

The report attributes this surge in prices to the low production volume of maize, paddy rice, sorghum, and cocoa. These commodities declined by an average of 11.5% in the 2022/23 trading season due to price-induced low fertiliser usage because of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Climate change realities such as flooding also had a significant effect on the market among other unfavourable conditions. The Annual Commodities Outlook by AFEX also alludes to price pressures being exacerbated by the fact that 2023 is an election year, which could cause some market uncertainty.

In his remarks, during the report launch, David Ibidapo, Head, Market Data and Research at AFEX, explained that, “Every year, AFEX reviews Nigeria’s commodity market and gives an in-depth analysis of the outlook for the new year.

In the last 2 to 3 years, we have seen the commodities market susceptible to global shocks, as evidenced by the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis on supply chain and food prices.

It’s then critical to monitor the market closely and give an objective picture of these agricultural commodities which would bring transparency and clarity in a bid to ameliorate the impact of the next global shock.”

Despite the economic slowdown, the report reveals that the agricultural sector still shows resilience as it outperformed most sectors, including trade, oil and gas, telecoms, and manufacturing, contributing 27.6% to Nigeria’s GDP in Q3 of 2022.  However, food inflation rose for nine consecutive months in the year reaching an all-high 24.13% in November 2022.

For 2023, the report further reveals that inflationary pressures will continue to rise due to decline in the production of major grain commodities thereby reducing the supply level in the domestic market.

Providing the outlook for the global commodities market, the report predicts that Maize prices will decrease by 8% in 2023, while prices for wheat, which were anticipated to rise by 36% in 2022, will slightly fall in 2023. Meanwhile, the average price of rice which decreased by 5% in 2022 is forecast to remain the same this year.

In the international scene, “The fertiliser index which rose by 66% in 2022, is projected to decline by 12% in 2023 as supply disruptions gradually subside. Increased input costs, new sanctions on Belarus and Russia, and lengthened export restrictions by China are all positive risks to the forecast.

However, the commissioning of some fertiliser plants, which have not yet ramped up to full capacity in 2022, will suppress the positive risks” the report reads.

Speaking on the commodities outlook for the year, Oluwafunto Olasemo, Vice President, Financial Markets at AFEX said, “The shift in global commodities supply has greatly influenced the commodity market and exposed the vulnerabilities in our food system. There is a growing imbalance between the food supply and the demand of the growing population, putting upward pressure on prices.

Developing a holistic approach to mitigate food insecurity and improve the shocks to climatic change, inadequate financing, and low access to efficient markets is a priority. With this report, we seek to provide high-quality, timely, accurate, and accessible data for investors while addressing the real pressing issues of the agricultural sector in Nigeria.”

AFEX has long recognized that farmers are part of the social fabric of Africa’s commodities market, hence, robust data is essential to identifying solutions that address food system challenges, build trust, and increase the capacity of supply chain businesses for farmers, processors, investors, and other key stakeholders in the value chain.

Mainstreaming environmental sustainability, and prioritising policies that encourage public and private sector players to work together to improve farmers’ productivity and transform food systems is thus a key recommendation from the report to pave the way for sustainable solutions.


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FG Plans N50m STEEM Grant to Support Student Innovation in August

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In a giant stride to support innovation, entrepreneurship and economic transformation, the Federal Government is set to unveil a N50 million grant for Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics and Medical Sciences (STEEM) students in Nigeria’s tertiary institutions.

The project, which is referred to as the Student Venture Capital Grant (S-VCG), is a pioneering initiative designed to empower the students towards building the next generation of scalable, job-creating ventures.

According to a statement by the Director of Press and Public Relations in the Ministry of Education, Folashade Boriowo, Friday, the initiative will be formally unveiled in August by the Minister of Education, Dr. Tunji Alausa.

Boriowo stated that the minister made the disclosure during a stakeholders’ engagement session held in Abuja in the presence of vice-chancellors, provosts, rectors, student leaders, academic staff, and development partners, and will chart a collective course for nurturing student-led innovation.

The statement noted that the grant targets full-time undergraduate students in STEMM disciplines (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics and Medical Sciences), specifically those in 300 level and above.

“Each selected student-led project will be eligible to receive startup funding of up to N50 million, along with access to mentorship, incubation services and business development support.

“The initiative will be implemented in partnership with the Bank of Industry (BoI) to ensure financial transparency, impact measurement and effective project execution.

“S-VCG is not just a grant. It’s a launchpad for bold, young innovators to lead Nigeria’s industrial and technological transformation,” said Alausa.

Speaking at the session, the Minister of State for Education, Prof. Suwaiba Sa’id Ahmad, described the grant as a strategic investment in Nigeria’s knowledge economy.

“We’re building a stronger, more competitive future by supporting innovation from the ground up,” she said, adding that the programme’s design was informed by months of consultation with students, faculty and institutional leaders.

Participants at the event welcomed the STEMM-Up Grant as a timely, strategic and high-impact initiative that will drive youth innovation, tackle graduate unemployment, and position Nigeria as a hub for student-led entrepreneurship in Africa.

 


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UK Businesses Look to Africa As Strategic Growth Partners

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New research by UK-based Strategy Management Partners reveals that a growing number of British businesses are identifying Africa as a key strategic growth region – drawn by structural reforms, demographic momentum, and rapid digital transformation across the continent.

The research, based on a survey of senior decision-makers from 250 large UK-based companies, finds that 50% are already active in African markets and planning to expand further.

An additional 28% are considering entry, signalling a clear uptick in long-term interest from international businesses with the resources to scale regionally.

The findings challenge outdated perceptions of Africa as a high-risk or secondary market. Instead, they highlight key drivers behind renewed commercial interest: • 61 per cent of UK leaders cited Africa’s large and growing consumer markets as a major draw. • 61 per cent pointed to the continent’s rapid pace of digital and technological adoption. • 50 per cent highlighted the potential of Africa’s young, skilled, and digitally native population.

The study also suggests that Africa is no longer viewed simply as a market for philanthropic initiatives or shortterm gain. Only 20 per cent of respondents cited philanthropic motives, while most are focused on building commercially viable, long-term operations.

Initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), are also laying the groundwork for significant economic growth.

With 23 countries already implementing preferential tariffs, the framework is expected to facilitate smoother intra-regional trade, enable market scale, and support more efficient supply chains.

These structural improvements are making Africa more attractive to global firms with the ambition to operate at scale.

However, despite rising optimism, significant operational and policy challenges remain. The top four barriers to investment cited by UK business leaders were: political and country risk (68%); safety and security issues 66.4%); regulatory barriers and tariffs (60.4%); and the complexity of cross-border transactions (60%).

Addressing these issues will be crucial to unlocking Africa’s full potential for UK investment. UK companies are showing the most interest in sectors that align with Africa’s core strengths, such as natural resources, agriculture, a young and expanding population, and infrastructure development.

These areas are seen as the backbone for long-term commercial growth, offering opportunities to build local supply chains, expand digital services, scale manufacturing, and meet rising consumer demand.

However, for companies looking to invest or expand into Africa, success also depends on key enabling conditions. According to business leaders surveyed, the top factors supporting investment are: • The size of market and consumer demand (49.6%) • Reliable and consistent energy supply (48.4%) • Access to affordable, educated and capable talent (44.8%) • Efficient transportation networks, such as roads, ports, airports (38%) • A favourable macroeconomic environment: low interest rates, low inflation, stable exchange rates, and seamless cross-border transactions and repatriation of earnings(38%).

“UK businesses are increasingly seeing Africa as a strategic growth market, driven by structural reforms, digital adoption, and the momentum behind the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA),” says Muibat Ijaiya, Partner at Strategy Management Partners.

“But real progress will depend on practical cooperation with African governments. The AfCFTAis a pivotal step forward – what’s needed now is a deeper alignment between public policy and private investment to address trade, regulatory and infrastructure barriers, and unlock long-term, sustainable growth.”

 


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Experts Champion Sustainability at Lagos Green Economy Forum

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Lagos State’s transition to a greener economy is gaining momentum, with female leaders from top corporations taking the lead and the state government beginning to record early wins from its plastic bag policy.

At the Lagos Green Economy Forum held on July 23, senior executives from MTN Nigeria, IHS Towers, TechnoServe, and other large organisations highlighted the role of corporate innovation in advancing sustainability.

The all-female panel also emphasised the urgent need to integrate Nigeria’s thousands of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) into the country’s green transition.

“We’re not just here to share strategies,” said Temilade Olabanji, Senior Manager, Sustainability and Shared Value, MTN Nigeria. “We are here to build local resilience. Our Project Zero is not only helping us cut emissions but also equipping our suppliers with the knowledge to do the same.”

MTN’s Project Zero aims for net-zero emissions by 2040, with a 50% reduction target by 2030. The company is already powering base stations and data centres with renewables, while training suppliers to understand carbon footprints and adopt circular practices. MTN has pledged that by 2026, 80% of its top suppliers will align with its sustainability goals.

Titilope Oguntuga, Director of Sustainability, IHS Towers, reinforced this approach, noting that the company’s Project Green is decarbonising its over 16,000 tower sites across Nigeria by switching to renewable energy. “Project Green is enabling all sites to run effectively with more renewable sources of energy rather than the typical fossil fuels,” she said. IHS also runs Clinic Without Walls, a free micro-health insurance scheme for underserved communities.

From the nonprofit sector, Juliet Ezeani, Senior Business Advisor of TechnoServe, explained how the organisation supports vendors through environmental impact assessments, sustainability training, and responsible procurement.“For all our projects, we look at how the project runs and especially how it affects the environment,” she said.

Meanwhile, the Lagos State Government provided an update on its green policy efforts, especially the plastic bag ban introduced two months ago.

“All of what we have done so far is towards making the economy of Lagos or the quality of life of the average Lagosian much better,” said Dr. Babatunde Ajayi, General Manager of the Lagos Environmental Protection Agency (LASEPA), who represented the Honourable Commissioner, Mr. Tokunbo Wahab.

On the plastic bag ban, he added: “What that [the ban] has also done is to free up our drainage from the plastic waste. In some way, we have reduced flooding, reduced pollution, and reduced the headache and the cost of maintaining drainages and labourers.”

Dr. Ajayi emphasised that green transition is not just a compliance issue for SMEs but an economic opportunity. “It helps them drive their engines, their entire businesses in a more sustainable manner.”

As Lagos accounts for nearly 30% of Nigeria’s GDP, the increasing alignment between corporate leaders and public policy towards a greener economy is positioning the state as a model for inclusive, environmentally responsible development.


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