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Ghana’s Economy Shows Signs of Revival, Fueled by a Surging Cedi

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By Austin Kwesi Okere

On June 4, 2025, Bloomberg.com drew global attention with the headline: “World-Beating Cedi Slows Ghana Inflation to Three-Year Low.” Defying expectations, the cedi has appreciated over 42% against the U.S. dollar since January, making it the world’s best-performing currency this year. This rally has not only boosted investor confidence but also helped reduce inflation and restore economic momentum.

What’s Driving the Rally and Can It Be Sustained?

Early signs suggest the rally is rooted in more than market forces. Under President John Dramani Mahama, Ghana appears to be undergoing a significant shift in governance, with an emphasis on real economic growth and social development rather than short-term optics.

At the heart of this shift is Mahama’s eight-pillar economic strategy, which includes:

  1. Completing the IMF program with fiscal discipline,
  2. Reopening capital markets,
  3. Strengthening sovereign wealth and local government financing,
  4. Clearing arrears and improving public investment,
  5. Reforming public financial management,
  6. Boosting exports via the Ghana Exim Bank,
  7. Positioning Ghana as a regional trade hub, and
  8. Reviving infrastructure development.

These efforts are beginning to pay off. Ghana has indicated it will exit the IMF program as scheduled in May 2026. At a press briefing in Washington, IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack noted that Ghana had achieved its debt-to-GDP target of 55% three years early and surpassed its international reserves goal, reaching GH¢10.6 billion by April 2025. The cedi’s strength has also helped slash Ghana’s debt stock by about GH¢150 billion.

President Mahama, speaking to the Ghana National Association of Teachers, reaffirmed his focus on stability and inclusive prosperity. GDP growth reached 5.4% in the first quarter, reinforcing the view that the economy is back on a growth path.

Monetary Policy and Inflation Management

The Bank of Ghana has played a key role in managing inflation and currency stability. In March, it raised the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 28%, a reduction from its 30% peak in 2023. From January to April 2025, it absorbed GH¢79.8 billion in liquidity – up 76.6% from the same period the previous year, demonstrating its commitment to macroeconomic stability.

These measures have had visible results: inflation fell to 18.4% in May, its lowest level in three years, down from 21.2% in April.

Everyday Impact: The Cedi’s Gains in Real Terms

The appreciation of the cedi is beginning to improve everyday life for Ghanaians. Industrial importers, for instance, are now able to buy machinery at significantly lower prices. One contractor, who paid GHS25,000 for a block molding machine last year, paid just GHS13,000 for the same model in June—a 48% price drop.

Fuel prices have dropped by about 15%, with some Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) selling petrol for under GH¢12 per litre. This has led to a 15% reduction in transport fares, as announced by the Road Transport Operators Association in May.

Food and commodity prices are also falling.

The Food and Beverage Association of Ghana reports that the price of a bag of “Dubai” rice has dropped from GH¢460 to GH¢370, and a 50kg bag of imported rice that once sold for GH¢950 is now GH¢750. Cooking oil has fallen from GH¢1,000 to GH¢680 per gallon, and cement prices from GH¢120 to GH¢82 per bag.

In short, the stronger cedi is improving purchasing power, easing cost pressures, and lowering the cost of doing business.

What’s the Ideal Currency Level?

Despite the positive momentum, policymakers stress the need for balance. President John Dramani Mahama has underscored the importance of balance, cautioning that an overly strong cedi could harm exports. He suggests an optimal exchange rate range of 10 to 12 cedis per U.S. dollar – a level that supports both importers and exporters while preserving competitiveness.

Beyond interest rate adjustments, the sustained performance of the currency depends on broader structural and governance-related factors.

Three critical elements driving the cedi’s performance include:

  1. A government focused on real, inclusive growth;
  2. Reforms grounded in substance, not optics;
  3. Trustworthy, transparent governance.

This combination fosters domestic investment, reduces capital flight, and boosts economic confidence, setting off a cycle of growth and social cohesion.

Is the Cedi’s Rise a Temporary Spike or a Structural Shift?

Some analysts argue that Ghana’s currency rally reflects deeper structural improvements rather than a short-lived spike. Prof. Eric Oteng-Abayie of the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology points to several domestic drivers behind the rally.

The Bank of Ghana’s Gold4Oil and GoldBod programs have increased Ghana’s gold reserves by 40.6% between May 2024 and April 2025. A requirement that 20% of gold export proceeds be converted to cedis before accessing dollars has stabilized forex supply and bolstered reserves.

Meanwhile, the removal of distortionary taxes such as the E-levy and the planned phase-out of the COVID-19 levy, combined with prudent public spending, have strengthened fiscal credibility.

Ghana’s debt restructuring has also offered relief. With the next major external repayment not due until July 2025, foreign exchange pressure has eased. Complementing this, the central bank injected $490 million into the forex market in April 2025 to support the cedi.

External Factors Working in Ghana’s Favor

Global trends have also benefited Ghana. The U.S. dollar has weakened—dropping 10% on the DXY index—amid global trade tensions and fears of a slowdown. This shift has favored emerging market currencies like the cedi.

Record-high prices for Ghana’s key exports – gold at $3,400 per ounce and cocoa at $10,000 per ton – have significantly boosted foreign exchange inflows. The formalization of small-scale mining has further increased legal gold exports, strengthening Ghana’s external position.

Relations with Commercial Creditors Normalised:

Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B-‘ from ‘Restricted Default’ (RD), with Stable Outlook.

This was announced on their website on June 16, 2025. The upgrade of Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR to ‘B-‘ from ‘RD’ reflects Fitch’s assessment that Ghana has normalised relations with a significant majority of external commercial creditors.

Ghana restructured its USD13.1 billon Eurobonds in October 2024. About USD2.6 billion of non-performing external debt still needs to be restructured. Of this, Fitch considers USD700 million to be commercial debt, representing 5% of total external commercial debt initially included in the restructuring perimeter. According to Fitch, “Ghana is negotiating with these outstanding commercial creditors, and we assess holdout risks as small.”

Can Ghana Sustain the Momentum?

While the outlook appears promising, the sustainability of this recovery will depend on disciplined policymaking, focused execution and the ability to maintain public trust. The early signs are encouraging, but in my view, “the jury is still out.”

Ghana’s case may well become a model for how transparent governance, strategic reforms, and global tailwinds can come together to drive economic revival – if the momentum can be maintained.

Austin Kwesi Okere is the Founder of CWG Plc and the Ausso Leadership Academy. In recognition of his contributions to business education and knowledge transfer across the continent, Austin was appointed to the Advisory Board of the Global Business School Network.

 


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E-Financial

IGP Designates Banks National Security Asset, Orders Crackdown on Cyber Frauds

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Kayode Egbetokun, inspector-general of Police (IGP), has declared Nigeria’s banking industry a strategic national asset, ordering an immediate intelligence-led crackdown on cybercriminal networks, insider facilitators, and transnational financial crime syndicates threatening the stability of the financial system.

IGP Designates Banks National Security Asset, Orders Crackdown on Cyber Frauds

Kayode Egbetokun, inspector-general of Police (IGP),

Speaking at a strategic meeting with the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) and the Body of Bank Chief Executive Officers in Lagos, where he said the Nigeria Police Force was shifting from reactive policing to proactive dismantling of organised criminal structures targeting banks.

According to him, the financial sector remains central to national stability.

He said: “The Nigerian banking industry is not merely a driver of economic activity; it is a core component of our national stability architecture. The integrity, continuity, and resilience of the financial system are directly linked to public confidence, investor perception, and the credibility of Nigeria’s economic governance.”

In a major policy shift, Egbetokun announced that regular police officers would no longer be deployed for routine cash-in-transit escorts or non-essential VIP protective duties within the private sector.

He explained that the decision aligned with national policy direction and manpower optimisation within the Force, adding that the traditional model of conventional police deployment for banking sector protection was being reviewed and progressively restructured.

“This policy adjustment is not designed to diminish the security framework supporting the banking industry. Rather, it reflects a deliberate transition towards a more sustainable, professional, and institutionally governed model of security support,” he said.

Egbetokun warned that conventional risks such as armed robbery and cash-in-transit vulnerabilities, though still present, have been overtaken by more complex and technologically sophisticated threats.

“These threats are adaptive, technologically sophisticated, and often coordinated across borders. They include cyber-enabled fraud, identity compromise, insider facilitation, organised financial crime, and illicit financial flows,” he told the bankers.

The IGP stressed that disruptions to banking operations now carry international reputational consequences, citing global compliance standards set by the Financial Action Task Force FATF and Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) obligations.

He said: “In an era shaped by FATF standards, AML/CFT obligations, and heightened scrutiny of financial flows, the strength of a nation’s enforcement and security architecture is now directly relevant to investor confidence and market stability.”

The police noted that: “The speed and sophistication of cyber-enabled fraud illustrate the urgency of integration. Delayed reporting windows can render enforcement ineffective, while rapid escalation, evidence preservation, and coordinated response can significantly improve disruption, recovery, and prosecution outcomes.

“Modern financial crime operates at a pace that requires equally modern security coordination.”

Egbetokun disclosed that the Force had already intensified covert operations targeting kidnapping syndicates, illegal arms networks, and organised criminal enterprises whose activities threaten commercial stability.

He added that the Police were strengthening coordination with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC),  the Nigeria Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to ensure that criminal enterprises do not exploit gaps between enforcement, compliance, and oversight.

The IGP told the bankers that sustainable security cannot be achieved through episodic contact or fragmented interventions, calling for structured cooperation between law enforcement and financial institutions.

“Security is not merely the absence of crime; it is the presence of stability that enables productivity, investment, and growth. A secure banking environment supports savings mobilisation, credit expansion, financial inclusion, and the confidence of both domestic and international investors.

“When citizens trust financial institutions, participation in the formal economy increases. When investors perceive a stable internal security environment supported by credible enforcement, Nigeria becomes more bankable, more investable, and more competitive.

“The outcome of this meeting should not be limited to dialogue. It should produce structured liaison mechanisms between law enforcement and the banking sector, clear operational protocols for high-risk areas, joint capacity building, and lawful information-sharing.

“The Nigeria Police Force stands ready to work with the banking sector not merely as an enforcement institution, but as a strategic partner in safeguarding the integrity, stability, and international credibility of Nigeria’s financial architecture,” he said.

Earlier in his remarks, Oliver Alawuba, chairman of the Body of Bank Chief Executive Officers,  who acknowledged the Police boss for measures put in place to tackle insecurity in the country, highlighted the banking industry’s past support.

He said: “The Bankers’ Committee was responsible for the renovation of over 42 police stations that were destroyed during the EndSARS protests. We stepped in when police infrastructure was in ruins. Today, we expect that same urgency when our own infrastructure is under digital siege.”

Professor Pius Olarenwaju, president,  CIBN, on his part, painted a grim picture of an industry under silent assault, warning that the velocity of cyberattacks now outstrips the response capacity of traditional law enforcement.

“The banking sector plays a pivotal role in Nigeria’s economic development, and our critical functions can only flourish in a secure and stable environment. But we are fighting a war where the enemy no longer carries guns , they carry laptops and exploit system vulnerabilities in milliseconds,” he told the IGP.

Olarenwaju further stressed that the rapid digital transformation of financial services has created a security paradox.

“As we deepen financial inclusion and expand digital channels, we also expand the attack surface for cybercriminals. The same technology that empowers the unbanked also empowers fraudsters operating from jurisdictions where Nigerian law enforcement has no reach. This is the new reality, and we need the police to evolve with it,” he said.

Present at the occasion were Managing Directors and Chief Executive Officers of banks such as Union Bank, Signature Bank, Parallex Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Keystone Bank, Coronation Merchant Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank, United Bank for Africa, among others.

 

 


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Rashidat Adebisi Unveils Strategic Roadmap for Nigeria’s Insurance Sector under NIIRA 2025

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Following a landmark 21-year career in institutional finance, Rashidat Adebisi, the former Executive Director at AXA Mansard, has officially launched “The Re-Architecture Project.”

This strategic pivot aims to align Nigeria’s insurance and financial infrastructure with the federal government’s ambitious $1 trillion economy goal, positioning the sector as a critical driver of macro-economic stability.

As Nigeria navigates the complexities of the Nigeria Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA 2025), Adebisi identifies this moment as a “watershed” for the industry.

She argues that the path to a trillion-dollar economy requires more than just capital, it demands a total re-architecture of how financial systems interact with the informal economy, which currently accounts for over 60% of employment in Africa.

Macro-Economic Resilience as a National Imperative

The Re-Architecture Project reframes insurance from a transactional product into the “secret sauce” of a resilient economy.

Adebisi asserts that for Nigeria to achieve its macro-economic targets, the insurance industry must bridge the massive “protection gap,” as penetration currently remains below 3% across many African markets.

Insurance as an Economic Safety Net: “Insurance is the net that allows a nation to jump higher,” Adebisi stated.

She emphasizes that every decimal point in a financial model represents a business stabilized and a future secured, providing the essential foundation for macro-economic growth.

Infrastructure Beyond Capital: The project posits that Nigeria is not lacking capital but “invisible infrastructure”, specifically Trust, Access, and Regulatory Clarity.

NIIRA 2025: From Compliance to Competitive Advantage

Adebisi describes NIIRA 2025 as a vital structural reinforcement rather than regulatory friction. The Act’s focus on Capital Recalibration, Stronger Governance, and Consumer Protection is essential for building the institutional rigour required to support a $1 trillion GDP.

Recalibrating Foundations: The reform represents a necessary recalibration of the industry’s foundations while accelerating digital transformation.

Strategic Policy Fluency: “Those who view compliance as a burden will struggle; those who see it as a competitive advantage will thrive,” Adebisi noted, identifying policy fluency as a core leadership competency for the next decade.

Economic Visibility: Integrating the Informal Sector

A central pillar of the project is “Engineering Inclusive Ecosystems,” exemplified by the FileAm App. This initiative reimagines tax compliance as a digital utility for SMEs and informal entrepreneurs, moving them from economic invisibility into formal digital tax rails, insurance coverage, and credit ecosystems.

The Wealth Pipeline: By building digital identity and verifiable credentials, the project aims to turn compliance into credit history, and credit history into the capital access required for intergenerational wealth creation.

As a Financial Systems Architect, Adebisi’s blueprint for the next decade is governed by a singular core rule: Data-aware. Policy-conscious. Africa-focused.. The project calls on industry leaders and policymakers to move beyond incremental adoption toward designing interoperable ecosystems that can sustain the Africa of tomorrow.

“The future of finance in Africa will not be inherited. It will be architected,” Adebisi concluded. “It is our turn to build.”.

 

 


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NAICOM Targets Resilient, Global Competition Market in Insurance Sector Consolidation

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The National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) has unveiled a far-reaching reform agenda aimed at strengthening industry stability, improving consumer confidence, and positioning the sector to play more strategic role in national economic growth.

Speaking at the 2026 management retreat in Uyo, Olusegun Ayo Omosehin, commissioner for Insurance/CEO, NAICOM, described the initiative as a defining moment for the industry, stressing that the transformation drive is designed to modernise regulatory oversight, deepen market penetration, and build a more resilient and globally competitive insurance industry.

The renewed policy direction was unveiled at the Commission’s 2026 Management Retreat held in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, under the theme “Insurance Regulation: Reset, Reimagine, Refocus.”

Omosehin, described the retreat as a watershed moment in the Commission’s 29-year evolution, declaring that the regulator is embarking on a decisive transformation phase anchored on integrity, professionalism, accountability, and institutional unity.

He stressed that the reform agenda represents a deliberate shift away from outdated regulatory practices towards a modern, proactive, and impact-driven supervisory framework capable of strengthening market confidence and driving sustainable industry growth.

Omosehin explained that the retreat’s theme reflects a strategic call to action designed to reset legacy regulatory approaches, reimagine the untapped potential of Nigeria’s insurance market, and refocus regulatory strategies to deliver measurable economic value.

He further underscored the Commission’s strategic role in supporting the economic expansion blueprint of president Bola Ahmed Tinubu, noting that achieving Nigeria’s ambitious $1 trillion economic target requires a resilient, well-capitalized, and shock-resistant insurance sector capable of underwriting major risks, attracting investment inflows, and supporting long-term national development.

Central to the reform drive is NAICOM’s ongoing recapitalization programme, which the commissioner described as one of the most far-reaching regulatory interventions in the history of Nigeria’s insurance industry.

He clarified that the initiative goes far beyond capital injection, stressing that it is designed to strengthen insurers’ financial stability, enhance consumer protection, deepen insurance penetration across underserved segments, reinforce the industry’s capacity to withstand economic shocks, and rebuild public trust in insurance as a credible financial safety net.

He emphasized that the credibility of the exercise will be measured by its transparency, fairness, and professional execution, warning that the Commission will tolerate no ambiguity, compromise, or preferential treatment in the process.

Addressing management staff, Omosehin delivered a firm directive for internal discipline and cohesion, urging leaders within the Commission to uphold integrity as a guiding principle, professionalism as an operational compass, and transparency as a non-negotiable regulatory standard.

He stressed that NAICOM’s effectiveness depends on institutional collaboration, warning that departmental silos and bureaucratic rivalries undermine regulatory efficiency.

In a symbolic demonstration of commitment, management staff collectively pledged to uphold fairness, accountability, and global best practices in executing the recapitalization roadmap and safeguarding the future of the insurance sector.

The Commissioner also outlined key strategic priorities expected to reposition the industry, including strengthening regulatory oversight, ensuring disciplined execution of the recapitalization framework, deepening stakeholder engagement, expanding institutional capacity in risk-based supervision and data analytics, driving market development through digital innovation, strengthening organizational culture, and reinforcing policyholder protection mechanisms.

Omosehin also invoked an African proverb to emphasize the importance of unity and collective resolve, noting that sustainable transformation of the insurance sector can only be achieved through shared commitment among regulators, operators, and stakeholders.

He reaffirmed NAICOM’s determination to build an insurance industry that is resilient, globally competitive, trusted by policyholders, and fully aligned with Nigeria’s long-term economic transformation agenda.


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