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Ghana’s Economy Shows Signs of Revival, Fueled by a Surging Cedi

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By Austin Kwesi Okere

On June 4, 2025, Bloomberg.com drew global attention with the headline: “World-Beating Cedi Slows Ghana Inflation to Three-Year Low.” Defying expectations, the cedi has appreciated over 42% against the U.S. dollar since January, making it the world’s best-performing currency this year. This rally has not only boosted investor confidence but also helped reduce inflation and restore economic momentum.

What’s Driving the Rally and Can It Be Sustained?

Early signs suggest the rally is rooted in more than market forces. Under President John Dramani Mahama, Ghana appears to be undergoing a significant shift in governance, with an emphasis on real economic growth and social development rather than short-term optics.

At the heart of this shift is Mahama’s eight-pillar economic strategy, which includes:

  1. Completing the IMF program with fiscal discipline,
  2. Reopening capital markets,
  3. Strengthening sovereign wealth and local government financing,
  4. Clearing arrears and improving public investment,
  5. Reforming public financial management,
  6. Boosting exports via the Ghana Exim Bank,
  7. Positioning Ghana as a regional trade hub, and
  8. Reviving infrastructure development.

These efforts are beginning to pay off. Ghana has indicated it will exit the IMF program as scheduled in May 2026. At a press briefing in Washington, IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack noted that Ghana had achieved its debt-to-GDP target of 55% three years early and surpassed its international reserves goal, reaching GH¢10.6 billion by April 2025. The cedi’s strength has also helped slash Ghana’s debt stock by about GH¢150 billion.

President Mahama, speaking to the Ghana National Association of Teachers, reaffirmed his focus on stability and inclusive prosperity. GDP growth reached 5.4% in the first quarter, reinforcing the view that the economy is back on a growth path.

Monetary Policy and Inflation Management

The Bank of Ghana has played a key role in managing inflation and currency stability. In March, it raised the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 28%, a reduction from its 30% peak in 2023. From January to April 2025, it absorbed GH¢79.8 billion in liquidity – up 76.6% from the same period the previous year, demonstrating its commitment to macroeconomic stability.

These measures have had visible results: inflation fell to 18.4% in May, its lowest level in three years, down from 21.2% in April.

Everyday Impact: The Cedi’s Gains in Real Terms

The appreciation of the cedi is beginning to improve everyday life for Ghanaians. Industrial importers, for instance, are now able to buy machinery at significantly lower prices. One contractor, who paid GHS25,000 for a block molding machine last year, paid just GHS13,000 for the same model in June—a 48% price drop.

Fuel prices have dropped by about 15%, with some Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) selling petrol for under GH¢12 per litre. This has led to a 15% reduction in transport fares, as announced by the Road Transport Operators Association in May.

Food and commodity prices are also falling.

The Food and Beverage Association of Ghana reports that the price of a bag of “Dubai” rice has dropped from GH¢460 to GH¢370, and a 50kg bag of imported rice that once sold for GH¢950 is now GH¢750. Cooking oil has fallen from GH¢1,000 to GH¢680 per gallon, and cement prices from GH¢120 to GH¢82 per bag.

In short, the stronger cedi is improving purchasing power, easing cost pressures, and lowering the cost of doing business.

What’s the Ideal Currency Level?

Despite the positive momentum, policymakers stress the need for balance. President John Dramani Mahama has underscored the importance of balance, cautioning that an overly strong cedi could harm exports. He suggests an optimal exchange rate range of 10 to 12 cedis per U.S. dollar – a level that supports both importers and exporters while preserving competitiveness.

Beyond interest rate adjustments, the sustained performance of the currency depends on broader structural and governance-related factors.

Three critical elements driving the cedi’s performance include:

  1. A government focused on real, inclusive growth;
  2. Reforms grounded in substance, not optics;
  3. Trustworthy, transparent governance.

This combination fosters domestic investment, reduces capital flight, and boosts economic confidence, setting off a cycle of growth and social cohesion.

Is the Cedi’s Rise a Temporary Spike or a Structural Shift?

Some analysts argue that Ghana’s currency rally reflects deeper structural improvements rather than a short-lived spike. Prof. Eric Oteng-Abayie of the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology points to several domestic drivers behind the rally.

The Bank of Ghana’s Gold4Oil and GoldBod programs have increased Ghana’s gold reserves by 40.6% between May 2024 and April 2025. A requirement that 20% of gold export proceeds be converted to cedis before accessing dollars has stabilized forex supply and bolstered reserves.

Meanwhile, the removal of distortionary taxes such as the E-levy and the planned phase-out of the COVID-19 levy, combined with prudent public spending, have strengthened fiscal credibility.

Ghana’s debt restructuring has also offered relief. With the next major external repayment not due until July 2025, foreign exchange pressure has eased. Complementing this, the central bank injected $490 million into the forex market in April 2025 to support the cedi.

External Factors Working in Ghana’s Favor

Global trends have also benefited Ghana. The U.S. dollar has weakened—dropping 10% on the DXY index—amid global trade tensions and fears of a slowdown. This shift has favored emerging market currencies like the cedi.

Record-high prices for Ghana’s key exports – gold at $3,400 per ounce and cocoa at $10,000 per ton – have significantly boosted foreign exchange inflows. The formalization of small-scale mining has further increased legal gold exports, strengthening Ghana’s external position.

Relations with Commercial Creditors Normalised:

Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B-‘ from ‘Restricted Default’ (RD), with Stable Outlook.

This was announced on their website on June 16, 2025. The upgrade of Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR to ‘B-‘ from ‘RD’ reflects Fitch’s assessment that Ghana has normalised relations with a significant majority of external commercial creditors.

Ghana restructured its USD13.1 billon Eurobonds in October 2024. About USD2.6 billion of non-performing external debt still needs to be restructured. Of this, Fitch considers USD700 million to be commercial debt, representing 5% of total external commercial debt initially included in the restructuring perimeter. According to Fitch, “Ghana is negotiating with these outstanding commercial creditors, and we assess holdout risks as small.”

Can Ghana Sustain the Momentum?

While the outlook appears promising, the sustainability of this recovery will depend on disciplined policymaking, focused execution and the ability to maintain public trust. The early signs are encouraging, but in my view, “the jury is still out.”

Ghana’s case may well become a model for how transparent governance, strategic reforms, and global tailwinds can come together to drive economic revival – if the momentum can be maintained.

Austin Kwesi Okere is the Founder of CWG Plc and the Ausso Leadership Academy. In recognition of his contributions to business education and knowledge transfer across the continent, Austin was appointed to the Advisory Board of the Global Business School Network.

 


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E-Financial

PalmPay Expands Access to Digital Insurance Through Strategic Partnerships

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PalmPay, a leading digital banking platform in Africa has announced the launch of strategic partnerships with top-tier insurance providers to offer accessible, affordable and simplified insurance products directly within the PalmPay app.

This initiative reflects the brand’s continued commitment to deepening financial inclusion and underscores its mission to improve the wellbeing of everyday Nigerians.

With only about 8.9% of Nigerians currently covered by any form of health insurance, the country remains one of the least insured populations in Africa. Barriers such as low awareness, affordability challenges, and trust issues continue to hinder broader adoption of insurance products.

PalmPay’s new insurance offering directly addresses these challenges by simplifying the purchase and management of insurance policies within the app. The PalmPay insurance feature is designed to make essential coverage, from health to device, and life insurance easily accessible at affordable prices, eliminating the traditional complexities often associated with insurance.

“Insurance is often perceived as complex or inaccessible, especially among underserved communities.” said Habib Kowontan, Head of Wealth Product at PalmPay. “Through these partnerships, we aim to break down those barriers by offering simple, reliable and affordable insurance options that are easily accessible within the PalmPay app.”

With over 35 million users across Nigeria, PalmPay continues to evolve as a smart, consumer-first digital banking platform. The integration of insurance services complements its growing suite of offerings, which includes transfers, bill payments, high-interest savings, and debit card services, making PalmPay one of the most comprehensive digital banking platforms in the African market.

“Our goal at PalmPay is to remove barriers and make essential services easily accessible to everyone,” said Mr Chika Nwosu, Managing Director of PalmPay. “Through these strategic partnerships, we’re expanding our services to be more inclusive and empowering our users with products that will positively impact their lives and finances.”

This rollout marks a significant milestone in PalmPay’s broader strategy to empower users with tools that enhance their daily lives. Building not just a payments app, but a smart and trusted financial partner for millions of Nigerians.


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Fidelity Bank Intensifies Support for Displaced Persons in Makurdi Camp

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Team Lead, CSR, Fidelity Bank Plc, Victoria Abuka (Left); CEO, The Abbasid Charity Foundation, Hauwa Abbas (Centre); and Branch Leader, Fidelity Bank Plc, Makurdi, Terwase (Right), representing the Regional Bank Head, North Central, Sadi Zawiya, with some beneficiaries during the Fidelity Food Bank distribution event in Makurdi, Benue State recently.
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In a timely gesture aimed at improving the plight of internally displaced persons (IDP) in Benue State, leading financial institution, Fidelity Bank Plc, has distributed mattresses and essential food items to over 2,000 victims of the Yelwata attacks currently taking refuge at the Ultra-Modern International Market IDP Camp in Makurdi.

Team Lead, CSR, Fidelity Bank Plc, Victoria Abuka (Left); CEO, The Abbasid Charity Foundation, Hauwa Abbas (Centre); and Branch Leader, Fidelity Bank Plc, Makurdi, Terwase (Right), representing the Regional Bank Head, North Central, Sadi Zawiya, with some beneficiaries during the Fidelity Food Bank distribution event in Makurdi, Benue State recently.

The donation, which was carried out in collaboration with the Abbasid Charity Foundation, is part of Fidelity Bank’s ongoing commitment to supporting vulnerable communities through its flagship Fidelity Food Bank program. Since its launch in April 2023, the Food Bank has distributed over 200,000 food packs to beneficiaries across Nigeria’s six geo-political zones.

Speaking about the donation event, the bank’s Divisional Head, Brand and Communications, Dr. Meksley Nwagboh reaffirmed Fidelity Bank’s dedication to Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and its mission to uplift communities.

His words, “Since its launch, the Fidelity Food Bank initiative has helped to alleviate the effect of poverty and malnutrition across the country. We are honored to be back in Benue State to continue this impactful initiative, and we hope that today’s donation brings much-needed relief and comfort to the beneficiaries during this difficult time”.

In her remarks, the Executive Officer, the Abbasid Charity Foundation, Mrs. Hawa Abbas, emphasized the importance of restoring dignity to the displaced, stating that the donation of mattresses was to ensure the IDPs no longer sleep on bare floors.

“This gesture is our way of letting the displaced persons know that they are not forgotten. We care deeply for them, and we hope this donation offers some comfort and hope, even in these difficult circumstances,” Abbas noted.

The Executive Secretary of the Benue State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA), Dr. James Iorpuu, who was represented by Camp Manager, Mr. Robert Nyom, expressed deep appreciation to Fidelity Bank and the Abbasid Charity Foundation for their timely support.

“Your intervention has brought much-needed relief to the camp and we thank you for your compassion and generosity towards improving the welfare of the displaced persons,” he said.

The bank’s outreach to the International Market IDP Camp in Makurdi represents the most recent of its ongoing critical and timely interventions. Previously, through its Food Bank Initiative, the bank provided essential food items to more than 1,500 residents impacted by the recent flood disaster in Mokwa, Niger State.

Ranked among the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank Plc is a full-fledged Commercial Deposit Money Bank serving over 9.1 million customers through digital banking channels, its 255 business offices in Nigeria and United Kingdom subsidiary, FidBank UK Limited.

The Bank is the recipient of multiple local and international Awards, including the 2024 Excellence in Digital Transformation & MSME Banking Award by BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards; the 2024 Most Innovative Mobile Banking Application award for its Fidelity Mobile App by Global Business Outlook, and the 2024 Most Innovative Investment Banking Service Provider award by Global Brands Magazine. Additionally, the Bank was recognized as the Best Bank for SMEs in Nigeria by the Euromoney Awards for Excellence and as the Export Financing Bank of the Year by the BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards.


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Secret Service Seizes $400M in Crypto, Cold Wallet among World’s Largest

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US Secret Service has quietly seized nearly $400 million in digital assets over the past decade, amassing one of the world’s largest crypto cold wallets, Bloomberg reported at the weekend, citing people familiar with the matter.

Secret Service Seizes $400M in Crypto, Cold Wallet among World’s Largest

The agency’s Global Investigative Operations Center (GIOC) has tracked funds through open-source tools, blockchain analysis, and patience, Jamie Lam, an investigative analyst with the US Secret Service, reportedly told law enforcement officials in Bermuda last month.

The agency’s crypto trove, much of which sits in a single cold-storage wallet, results from a string of investigations into scams. Scammers lure targets into seemingly legitimate crypto investment platforms in one typical scheme.

Victims often see initial profits before the sites vanish with their deposits.

“That’s how they do it,” Lam said. “They’ll send you a photo of a really good-looking guy or girl. But it’s probably some old guy in Russia.”

Lam’s team uses domain records, blockchain transactions, and VPN slip-ups to identify fraudsters. In one case, a cryptocurrency payment led investigators to another wallet. In another one, a brief VPN failure exposed an IP address, helping agents piece together the scam’s digital trail.

At the helm of the Secret Service’s crypto strategy is Kali Smith, who directs a team that has trained officials in over 60 countries to unmask online financial crimes.

The agency has focused on jurisdictions with weak oversight or programs selling residency to foreign nationals. “Sometimes after just a week-long training, they can be like, ‘Wow, we didn’t even realize that this is occurring in our country,’” Smith said.

The Secret Service’s work has uncovered scams ranging from romance-investment schemes to sextortion cases. One investigation involved an Idaho teenager who sent a nude photo to an online stranger. The scammer extorted $300 twice before the teen went to the police.

Analysts traced the payments through another coerced teenager acting as a money mule, leading to an account tied to nearly $4.1 million in transactions under a Nigerian passport.

British police arrested the suspected extortionist when he arrived in Guildford, England, where he remains in custody pending extradition.

 

 


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