E-Financial
Expiry of Loan Forbearance to Test Nigerian Banks’ Capital Buffers- Fitch

Nigerian banks are facing a potential increase in impaired loans and fresh pressure on their capital buffers as regulators prepare to withdraw systemwide forbearance measures that have underpinned the sector since the country’s last major financial shock, according to Fitch Ratings.

The credit rating agency, in a commentary published this week, cautioned that the expiry of forbearance arrangements by the middle of 2025 will trigger the reclassification of large volumes of risky loans, raising impaired loan ratios and testing banks’ ability to maintain adequate capitalisation levels.
The warning comes as Nigerian lenders undergo a complex operating environment marked by high inflation, elevated interest rates, and shifting regulatory demands, even as recent reforms have strengthened earnings and liquidity.
Systemwide forbearance (Regulatory relief measures that allowed banks to avoid classifying certain stressed assets as non-performing), has provided temporary breathing space since the COVID-19 crisis and subsequent naira volatility. Fitch estimates that the vast majority of Nigerian banks will exit these arrangements by the end of 2025.
The agency said the transition will be disruptive, stating: “The expiry of forbearance will lead to some large Stage 2 loans being reclassified as impaired,” it noted. Stage 2 exposures are loans that show signs of significant credit deterioration but are not yet considered in default.
As these migrate into the impaired category, reported non-performing loan (NPL) ratios are expected to rise materially, with knock-on effects for provisioning and capital adequacy. Total capital adequacy ratios (CARs), already stretched for some mid-tier lenders, could come under notable pressure, Fitch said.
Banks that fail to meet prudential thresholds may continue under forbearance but will face penalties, including restrictions on dividend payments, a potential concern for investors in an industry long valued for its high payout ratios.
Despite the looming risks, Fitch emphasised that Nigerian lenders are not entirely unprepared. Many banks have undertaken proactive loan restructurings to improve repayment profiles, while a wave of capital-raising activity has been set in motion by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) decision to sharply raise minimum paid-in capital requirements earlier this year.
Improved profitability has also given banks more cushion.
Net interest margins have widened on the back of higher yields, enhancing loss-absorption capacity and providing a buffer against prospective impairment charges.
“This will help counteract increased loan impairment charges and prudential provisions resulting from the expiry of forbearance,” Fitch noted, pointing to stronger earnings as an important offset to asset quality pressures.
One bright spot has been the banking sector’s foreign-currency liquidity profile, which has benefited from the CBN’s exchange rate liberalisation and subsequent naira devaluations.
According to Fitch, the reforms have boosted turnover in the foreign-exchange market and improved banks’ access to hard currency.
This will prove critical as lenders face external debt maturities in the coming years. This is even as Nigerian banks have Eurobonds worth $2.2 billion maturing or callable by 2026.
Fitch said most institutions hold sufficient liquidity to meet these obligations without resorting to refinancing.
This is considered a marked contrast to previous periods when access to international capital markets was limited.
Nonetheless, structural challenges continue to weigh on the industry.
Nigeria’s inflation rate, which has held above 20 per cent for much of the past two years, is eroding real returns and complicating monetary policy transmission. Interest rates are expected to remain high in the near term, further constraining credit expansion.
At the same time, regulatory burdens remain highly onerous, Fitch said, with banks facing compliance demands that add to operating costs and restrict flexibility.
Analysts also warn that sovereign risks including Nigeria’s rising debt stock and fiscal pressures, could spill over into the banking system, particularly given lenders’ large holdings of government securities.
E-Financial
IMF Raises Concerns over N8.83 Trillion Unreported Spending in Nigeria’s Budgets

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns over Nigeria’s fiscal transparency, disclosing that about two per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), estimated at N8.83 trillion, was omitted from recent official budget documents.

Bola Tinubu
Unreported public spending—also known as off-budget expenditure—happens when a government spends money on public projects or services without including those costs in official budget documents.
This practice hides the true size of the government’s deficit, hides debt accumulation, and distorts overall economic data.
The IMF said the unreported expenditure has created a significant gap between Nigeria’s reported fiscal deficit and its actual financing requirements, making government borrowing appear lower than it truly is.
Speaking at an industry event in Lagos, Christian Ebeke, resident representative of IMF in Nigeria, said the expenditure should have been reflected in the country’s fiscal accounts to present a more accurate picture of public finances.
“So far we think that there are about two per cent of GDP of expenditure that were not reported that should be reported and should be recorded, so that this statistical discrepancy will disappear,” Ebeke said.
The estimate translates to approximately N8.83 trillion, based on the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) latest nominal GDP figure of N441.5 trillion for 2025.
According to the NBS, Nigeria’s nominal GDP increased from N372.8 trillion in 2024 to N441.5 trillion in 2025 following improved performance across both the oil and non-oil sectors.
Using the Central Bank of Nigeria’s average exchange rate of N1,436 to the dollar for 2025, the omitted expenditure amounts to about $6.15 billion.
Ebeke attributed the discrepancy largely to capital projects executed outside the formal budget framework, noting that the omission had distorted assessments of Nigeria’s fiscal position and public investment profile.
He explained that some government spending was neither captured in approved budget documents nor reflected in budget implementation reports, resulting in an understatement of the country’s actual fiscal deficit.
According to him, the lack of comprehensive reporting also complicates coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, as policymakers are left without a complete picture of government finances.
“The lack of full reporting can also complicate coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, as policymakers may not have a clear picture of the true deficit,” he said.
Ebeke warned that off-budget spending raises broader concerns about accountability, procurement processes and institutional oversight, stressing that improving fiscal transparency should remain a priority for the government.
“Improving transparency is critical,” he added, noting that expenditures outside the formal budget process undermine effective oversight and public accountability.
The IMF representative, however, acknowledged that the Federal Government has begun taking steps to address the problem through legislative reforms aimed at bringing previously unreported expenditures within the formal budget framework.
He said the authorities were working to amend existing budget laws to ensure greater disclosure of government spending but stressed that such reforms must be accompanied by timely and comprehensive budget implementation reports.
According to him, closing the reporting gap is essential to strengthening public financial management, improving transparency and restoring confidence in Nigeria’s fiscal framework.
The IMF’s latest observations come months after the National Bureau of Statistics rebased Nigeria’s economy, changing the GDP base year from 2010 to 2019, a revision that significantly increased the size of the country’s economy and, by implication, the value of expenditure estimates expressed as a percentage of GDP.
The concerns also follow the IMF’s recent Article IV Consultation on Nigeria, in which the Fund commended the Federal Government’s ongoing economic reforms for improving macroeconomic stability and boosting investor confidence, while cautioning that persistent structural weaknesses continue to limit the impact of the reforms on the broader population.
E-Financial
Visa Targets Nigeria, Others in Visa Pay Expansion Drive

Visa is expanding access to Visa Pay for additional issuers across Africa through a software development kit (SDK) that enables banks, mobile money operators, and fintechs embed Visa Pay capabilities into their existing mobile applications and to launch virtual cards and payment experiences quickly and securely.

According to a statement from the company, the solution is an interoperable and secure way for banked and unbanked consumers to transact and move money across participating banks, fintechs and mobile networks.
Issuers adopting Visa Pay’s SDK span multiple markets across the continent including Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Comoros, Mauritius, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Tanzania, and Sierra Leone.
With integrated issuer processing capabilities, built-in customer experience, tokenisation readiness and Visa-certified security and compliance components, SDK helps accelerate and simplify the deployment of Visa Pay, particularly in markets where infrastructure constraints can slow digital transformation.
Looking ahead, Visa Pay will continue to evolve with new capabilities designed to further simplify everyday payments. Among the features expected to launch soon is Tap to Pay, which will enable consumers to make secure contactless payments by simply tapping their phone at a contactless-enabled checkout terminal, said the firm.
“Visa Pay is designed to help issuers meet a wide range of market needs, from secure e-commerce and remittances to mobile money-linked virtual cards, humanitarian disbursements, person-to-person payments and future contactless experiences,” said Godfrey Sullivan, senior vice president and head of products and solutions for Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa at Visa.
“The adoption of Visa Pay represents an important step in strengthening our digital payments capabilities and supporting our broader digital transformation agenda. At a time when Sudan’s current challenges have increased the need for resilient and accessible financial services, we believe digital payment solutions play a critical role in enhancing customer convenience, supporting business continuity, and promoting financial inclusion” commented Yousif Eltinay, CEO of United Capital Bank, Sudan.
According to Jesse Jackson, chief digital and innovation officer for Tanzania Commercial Bank, from a business perspective, Visa Pay will enable it accelerate digital adoption among both consumers and merchants, increase transaction activity within its ecosystem, expand merchant acceptance and strengthen customer engagement.
“It also supports our broader goal of driving financial inclusion by bringing more individuals and businesses into the digital economy.”
E-Financial
NDIC Warns Against Transactions with 46 Closed Microfinance Banks

Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has warned members of the public against carrying out any transactions with the 46 microfinance banks whose operating licences were revoked by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

NDIC
The corporation issued the warning on Thursday following the revocation of the licences by the CBN on July 1, 2026.
In a statement, the NDIC said it had been appointed the official liquidator of the failed banks pursuant to Section 12(2) of the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020 and Sections 55(1) and 55(2) of the NDIC Act 2023.
It stated that the affected microfinance banks were no longer authorised to carry out banking business in Nigeria following the withdrawal of their licences.
The corporation cautioned members of the public against engaging in any unauthorised transactions with the closed banks or attempting to tamper with their assets and records.
It warned that any attempt by individuals to remove, conceal, retain or interfere with the assets, records or properties of the failed institutions would constitute a violation of the law and could attract appropriate legal sanctions.
According to the NDIC, it has commenced the process of an orderly closure of the banks through their immediate takeover, verification of depositors and payment of insured deposits to eligible customers.
The corporation assured depositors that the liquidation process would be conducted in accordance with relevant laws and regulations.
It added that depositors and the general public would be kept informed on further steps regarding the liquidation exercise, including the verification process and payment of insured sums to eligible depositors.
The NDIC urged customers of the affected banks to remain calm, assuring them of its commitment to protecting insured deposits and ensuring an orderly resolution of the failed financial institutions.
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