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Nigeria’s “Era of Renewed Stability” and the Truths the CBN Chooses to Overlook

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By Blaise Udunze

At the Annual Bankers’ Dinner, when the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, recently stated that Nigeria had “turned a decisive corner,” his remark aimed to convey assurance that inflation was decelerating with headline inflation eased to 16.05percent and food inflation retreating to 13.12 percent, the exchange rate was stabilizing, and foreign reserves ($46.7 billion) had climbed to a seven-year peak. However, beneath this announcement, a grimmer and conflicting economic situation challenges households, businesses, and investors daily.

Nigeria’s "Era of Renewed Stability" and the Truths the CBN Chooses to Overlook

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Stability is not announced; it is felt. For millions of Nigerians, however, what they are facing instead are increasing difficulties, declining abilities, diminished buying power, and susceptibilities that dispute any assertion of a steady macroeconomic path.

The 303rd MPC gathering was the most significant in recent times, revealing policies and statements that prompt more questions than clarifications. It highlighted an economy striving to appear stable, in theory, while the actual sector struggles to breathe.

This narrative explores why Cardoso’s assertion of “restored stability” is based on a delicate and partial foundation, and why Nigeria continues to be distant from attaining economic robustness.

Manufacturing: The Core of Genuine Stability Remains Struggling to Survive

A strong economy is characterized by growth in production, increased investment, and competitive industries. Nigeria lacks all of these elements.

The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) expressed this clearly in its response to the MPC’s choice to keep the Monetary Policy Rate at 27 percent. MAN stated that elevated interest rates are now” hindering production, deterring investment, and weakening competitiveness.

Producers are presently taking loans at rates between 30-37 percent, an environment that renders growth unfeasible and survival challenging. MAN’s Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, emphasized that although stable exchange rates matter, no genuine industry can endure borrowing expenses to those charged by loan sharks.

The CBN’s choice to maintain elevated interest rates is based on drawing foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to support the naira’s stability. However, FPIs are well-known for being short-term, speculative, and reactive to disturbances. They do not signify long-term stability. Do they represent genuine economic development?

Genuine stability demands assurance, in manufacturing beyond financial tightening. Manufacturers are expressing, clearly and persistently, that no progress has been made.

Oil Output and Revenue: The Engine Behind Nigeria’s Stability Is Misfiring

Nigeria’s oil sector, which is the backbone of its fiscal stability, is underperforming. The 2025 budget presumed:

·       $75 per barrel oil price

·       2.06 million barrels per day production

Both objectives have fallen apart. Brent crude lingers near $62.56 under the benchmark. Contrary to the usual explanations, experts attribute the decline not mainly to external shocks but to poor reservoir management, outdated models, weak oversight, and delayed technical decisions.

Engineer Charles Deigh, a regarded expert in reservoir engineering, clearly expressed that Nigeria is experiencing production losses due to inadequate well monitoring, obsolete reservoir models, and technical choices lacking fundamental engineering precision.  These shortcomings result directly in decreased revenue. By September 2025:

–       Nigeria had accumulated N62.15 trillion from oil revenue

–       instead of the N84.67 trillion budgeted.

–       In September, the Federal Inland Revenue Service reported a startling 49.60 percent deficit in revenue from oil taxes.

A nation falling short of its main revenue goals by 50 percent cannot assert stability. Instead, it will take loans. Nigeria has taken loans.

A Stability Built on Debt, Not Productivity

Nigeria is now Africa’s largest borrower, and the world’s third-biggest borrower from the World Bank’s IDA, with $18.5 billion in commitments. By mid-2025, the total public debt amounts to N152.4 trillion, marking a 348.6 percent rise since 2023.

From July to October 2025, the government secured contracts for: $24.79 billion, €4 billion, ¥15 billion, N757 billion, and $500 million Sukuk loans. Nevertheless, in spite of these acquisitions, infrastructure continues to be manufacturing remains limited, and social welfare is still insufficient.

Uche Uwaleke, a finance and capital markets professor, cautions that Nigeria’s debt service ratio is “detrimental to growth.” Currently, the government spends one out of every four naira it earns on servicing debts. Taking on debt is not harmful in itself, provided it finances projects that pay for themselves. In Nigeria, it supports subsistence.  A country funding today, through the labour of the future, cannot assert restored stability.

The Naira: A Currency Supported by Fragile Pillars

The CBN contends that elevated interest rates and enhanced market confidence have contributed to the naira’s stabilisation. However, this steadiness is based on grounds that cannot endure even the slightest global disturbance. The pillars of a stable currency are:

–       Rising domestic production

–       Expanding exports

–       Reliable energy supply

–       Strong security

–       A thriving manufacturing base

None of these is Nigeria’s current reality. What Nigeria actually receives is capital from portfolio investors, and past events (2014, 2018, 2020, 2022) have demonstrated how rapidly these funds disappear.

Unemployment: “Stable” Figures Mask a Rising Youth Crisis

The CBN touts a reported unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. However, the International Labour Organisation (ILO), along with economists, cautions that the approach conceals more serious issues in the labour market.

Youth joblessness has increased to 6.5 percent, and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group cautions that Nigeria needs to generate 27 million formal employment opportunities by 2030 or else confront a disastrous labour crisis. The employment crisis is a ticking time bomb. A country cannot maintain stability when its youth are inactive, disheartened, and financially marginalized.

FDI Continues to Lag Despite CBN’s Positive Outlook

During the 2025 Nigerian Economic Summit, NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf stated that Nigeria’s efforts to attract direct investment (FDI) continue to be sluggish despite the implementation of reforms. FDI genuinely reflects investor trust, not portfolio inflows. FDI signifies enduring dedication, manufacturing plants, employment, and generating value. Nigeria does not have any of this as of now. An economy unable to draw long-term investments lacks stability.

139 Million Nigerians in Poverty: What Stability?

The recent development report from the World Bank estimates that 139 million Nigerians are living in poverty, and more than half of the population faces daily struggles. This is not stability. It is a humanitarian and economic crisis.

Food inflation continues to stay structurally high. The cost of a food basket has risen five times since 2019. Low-income families currently allocate much, as 70 percent of their earnings to food. A government cannot claim stability when its citizens go hungry.

A Fragile, Failing Power Sector

The power sector, another cornerstone of economic stability, is failing. Over 90 million Nigerians are without access to electricity, which is one of the highest figures globally. Even homes linked to the grid get 6.6 hours of electricity daily. Companies allocate funds to generators rather than to technology, innovation, or growth. Nigeria has now emerged as the biggest importer of solar panels in Africa, not due to environmental goals but because the national power grid is unreliable.

A country cannot achieve stability if it is unable to supply electricity to its residences, industrial plants, or medical centers.

Insecurity: The Silent Pillar Undermining All Economic Policy

Banditry, terrorism, abduction, and militant attacks persist in agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, and investment. Nigeria forfeits $15 billion each year due to insecurity and resources that might have fueled industrial development.

Food price increases are mainly caused by instability, and farmers are unable to cultivate, gather, or deliver their products. Nevertheless, the MPC approaches inflation predominantly as an issue of policy. In a country where insecurity fundamentally hinders the economy tightening policy cannot ensure stability.

Inflation Figures Under Suspicion

Questions have also emerged regarding the reliability of inflation data. Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, an economist, affirmed that the CBN might not entirely rely on the NBS inflation figures, highlighting increasing apprehension. A sharp decrease to 16 percent inflation clashes with market conditions.

Families are facing the food costs in two decades. Costs, for transport, housing rent, education fees, and necessary items keep increasing. Food prices cannot decline when farmers are abandoning their farmlands and fleeing for safety. If inflation figures are manipulated or partial, the stability story based on them becomes deceptive. There is, quite frankly, a significant disconnect between governance and the lived experience of ordinary Nigerians.

Foreign Reserves: A Story of Headlines vs Reality

Even Nigeria’s celebrated foreign reserves require scrutiny. The CBN reported $46.7 billion in reserves. However, a closer examination shows:

–       Net usable reserves are only $23.11 billion

–       The remainder is connected to commitments, swaps, and debts

Gross reserves make the news. Net reserves protect the currency. The difference is too large to assert that the naira is stable.

Nigeria’s Economic Contradiction: Stability at the Top, Volatility at the Bottom

In reality, Nigeria is caught between official proclamations of stability and lived experiences of volatility. The disparity between the CBN’s account and the actual experiences of Nigerians highlights a reality:

–       Macroeconomic changes have failed to convert into improvements in human well-being.

–       Nigeria might appear stable officially. Its citizens are experiencing instability in truth.

–       Taking on debt is increasing

–       Poverty is worsening

–       Manufacturing is contracting

–       Jobs are scarce

–       Authority is breaking down

–       Feelings of insecurity are growing stronger

–       Inflation is undermining dignity

–       Companies are struggling to breathe

–       Capital is escaping

–       Misery, among humans, is expanding

A strong economy is one where advancement is experienced, not announced.

What Genuine Stability Demands

To move from paper stability to real stability, Nigeria must:

1. Support domestic production.  Cut interest rates for manufacturers, reduce borrowing costs, and provide targeted credit.

2. Fix oil production technically. Revamp reservoir engineering, implement surveillance. Allocate resources to adequate technical oversight.

3. Prioritize security. Secure farmlands, highways, and industrial corridors.

4. Reform the power sector. Invest in grid reliability, renewable integration, and private-sector-led transmission.

5. Attract real FDI. Streamline rules, enhance the framework, and maintain consistent policy guidance.

6. Anchor debt on productive projects. Take loans exclusively for infrastructure projects that produce income.

7. Prioritize reforms in welfare. Adopt crisis-responsive, domestically funded safety nets.

8. Improve transparency. Ensure inflation, employment, and reserve data reflect reality.

Stability Is Not Given; It Has to Be Achieved

The CBN Governor’s statement of “renewed stability” is hopeful. It remains unproven. The inconsistencies are glaring, the statistics too. The real-world experiences are too harsh. Nigerians require outcomes, not slogans. Stability is gauged not through statements on policy but by whether:

–       Manufacturing plants are creating (factories operate at full capacity),

–       Food is affordable,

–       Young people have jobs

–       The naira is strong without artificial props,

–       Electricity is reliable,

–       Security is assured,

–       Poverty rates are decreasing.

Unless these conditions are met, Nigeria is not experiencing a period of restored stability. Instead, it is going through a phase of recovery, one that will collapse if the actual economy keeps worsening while decision-makers prematurely applaud their successes. The CBN must rethink its approach. Nigeria needs productive stability, not statistical stability.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]


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E-Financial

IFC, NGX Group Unveil Nigeria Gender Programme

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The International Finance Corporation, Nigerian Exchange Group, and the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry have unveiled the Nigeria Gender Country Programme at a high-level virtual CEO Roundtable convened to advance private sector action on gender equality and inclusive economic growth.

The session brought together chief executives and senior business leaders from NGX-listed companies, IFC client organisations, and LCCI member companies to introduce the programme’s strategic framework, align stakeholders around a shared agenda, and mobilise support ahead of its formal launch.

The NGCP builds on the momentum of Nigeria2Equal and other initiatives that have advanced workplace inclusion, women’s leadership, entrepreneurship, and sustainable finance across Nigeria’s private sector. Designed as a more integrated and collaborative platform, the programme seeks to scale impact through coordinated action among development institutions, business leaders, regulators, and the organised private sector.

Anchored on three strategic priorities, the programme aims to increase women’s representation in leadership, improve access to quality employment, and expand access to productive assets, including finance, technology, and markets, for women and women-led businesses.

Delivering the keynote address, the Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Emomotimi Agama, underscored the private sector’s critical role in accelerating gender-inclusive growth.

“Gender inclusion is fundamentally an economic growth imperative. Closing gender gaps can unlock billions of dollars in value for Nigeria while strengthening business performance and national competitiveness. We must therefore move beyond viewing inclusion as a corporate social responsibility initiative or compliance exercise and instead recognise it as a strategic driver of productivity, innovation, and sustainable economic growth,” he said.

Commenting on the initiative, Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of NGX Group, Temi Popoola, described the NGCP as a strategic platform for scaling women’s economic participation through stronger collaboration among the private sector, development institutions, and market stakeholders.

“The Nigeria Gender Country Programme presents a significant opportunity to deepen impact and accelerate progress across corporate Nigeria. By expanding women’s access to leadership opportunities, quality employment, finance, technology, and markets, we can unlock substantial economic value while building a more competitive, inclusive, and resilient private sector.

“At NGX Group, we believe the capital market has a critical role to play in advancing these outcomes through stronger governance, transparency, and stakeholder engagement,” he said.

Also speaking at the session, IFC Head of Office in Lagos, Christian Mulamula, highlighted the strong business case for gender inclusion.

“Closing the gender gap is one of the most significant opportunities to strengthen competitiveness and productivity. Across Africa, gender inequality is estimated to cost up to $2.5tn.

“Through the Nigeria Gender Country Program, IFC is working with the private sector to expand women’s leadership, improve access to better jobs, and increase opportunities for women-led businesses. Building on Nigeria2Equal, this initiative focuses on practical, measurable solutions that help businesses grow while advancing inclusive growth,” he said.

In her remarks, Director-General of LCCI, Chinyere Almona, noted that the programme’s success would depend on leadership accountability and sustained commitment from business leaders, particularly in embedding gender inclusion into organisational strategy and execution.

The partners are expected to formally launch the Nigeria Gender Country Programme at a physical event scheduled for 9 July 2026, where stakeholders will further advance implementation of the programme’s strategic priorities.

 


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Ecobank Raises Record $450m in Nature Bond for Africa’s Biodiversity

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Ecobank Group has broken new ground in sustainable finance with the launch of the world’s first International Capital Market Association (ICMA) commercial bank-issued Nature Bond on the London Stock Exchange, raising $450 million to channel capital into biodiversity conservation, sustainable agriculture and water infrastructure across Africa.

Ecobank Raises Record $450m in Nature Bond for Africa’s Biodiversity

The landmark transaction, which attracted overwhelming investor demand and earned the highest sustainability quality rating from Moody’s, is being hailed as a major milestone in efforts to close Africa’s nature-finance gap and mobilise private capital for environmental resilience.

The bond, which was oversubscribed nearly four times, creates a new mechanism for international and African investors to finance the protection of the continent’s natural capital through the communities, farmers and businesses that depend on it.

Africa hosts 25 percent of global biodiversity and is home to some of the world’s most important ecological assets, including vast tracts of arable land, tropical forests, freshwater ecosystems and wildlife habitats.

Yet despite its ecological significance, the continent attracts less than three percent of global nature finance, according to industry estimates.

Ecobank’s Nature Bond is designed to address this imbalance by directing capital into sectors where environmental outcomes and economic livelihoods are deeply interconnected.

Unlike traditional conservation financing vehicles that often focus on protected areas and environmental projects, the Nature Bond channels funding directly into the real economy.

The proceeds will support smallholder farmers adopting sustainable agricultural practices, agribusinesses operating verified deforestation-free supply chains, and water infrastructure projects that safeguard freshwater ecosystems relied upon by millions of people.

The initiative will span 24 African markets, with significant deployment planned in biodiversity-priority countries including Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso and Ghana.

According to Ecobank, 81 percent of the eligible lending portfolio will be directed to countries where agricultural land-use change remains the primary driver of biodiversity loss. This approach is intended to ensure that financing reaches areas where environmental intervention can generate the greatest impact.

Nature Bonds represent one of the newest categories within sustainable finance.

Under ICMA’s nature bond framework, proceeds must be used specifically to support nature-positive outcomes, including biodiversity conservation, sustainable agriculture, land restoration and water ecosystem protection.

The designation differs from conventional green bonds, which often support a broader range of environmental objectives.

By contrast, Nature Bonds are designed to target activities directly linked to preserving and restoring natural ecosystems.

For Ecobank, the transaction represents the culmination of several years of investment in sustainability governance, environmental risk management and impact measurement frameworks.

The bank said every eligible loan financed through the bond will be subject to seven independently verified sustainability conditions, supported by monitoring systems that include deforestation screening, supply-chain traceability requirements and ongoing environmental performance assessments.

These safeguards were instrumental in securing Moody’s highest possible Sustainability Quality Score (SQS1 Excellent), providing investors with confidence that the proceeds will generate measurable environmental outcomes.

The $450 million issuance attracted orders worth more than $1.36 billion, representing 3.9 times the original target size.

The strong demand enabled Ecobank to increase the deal size by $100 million while simultaneously tightening pricing by 50 basis points, a rare achievement in sustainable finance markets and a reflection of growing investor interest in credible nature-based investment opportunities.

The transaction drew participation from both African and international institutional investors, underscoring Ecobank’s unique position as a pan-African financial institution capable of bridging global capital markets with local development priorities.

Jeremy Awori, group chief executive officer of Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, described the transaction as a defining moment not only for the bank but also for Africa’s sustainable finance landscape.

“This transaction is a defining moment for African sustainable finance. Investors did not just support this bond. They demanded more of it, allowing us to increase the size and tighten pricing,” Awori said.

He noted that Ecobank had spent four years building the governance systems, accountability structures and operational frameworks required to make nature finance both credible and scalable across African markets.

“We are not a bank that simply labels bonds,” he said. “This bond is ultimately about the farmers, cooperatives and communities whose livelihoods depend on healthy ecosystems.”

Rachael Antwi, Ecobank’s group head of sustainability and environmental and social risk management, said the future of nature finance on the continent would depend on practical models that connect environmental objectives with real economic activity.

“Nature finance will only scale in Africa if it is practical, measurable and connected to the real economy. This bond is designed to do that by linking international capital to eligible lending for sustainable agriculture and water infrastructure across 24 countries,” she added.

Antwi added that the framework reflects the systems and standards Ecobank has developed to ensure environmental sustainability and economic development can advance together.

The launch is expected to strengthen Africa’s position within the rapidly expanding global sustainable finance market, which is increasingly looking beyond climate mitigation to address biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation.

 

 


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NPS, New Payment Infrastructure Hits 153,000 Transactions in Pilot Phase

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Nigeria’s National Payment Stack (NPS) processed 153,000 transactions during its pilot phase, moving closer to a full rollout.

NPS, New Payment Infrastructure Hits 153,000 Transactions in Pilot Phase

Pic credit…..manifieldsolicitors.com

This next-generation payment infrastructure aims to unify banks, fintechs, mobile money operators, and other financial institutions on a single payment rail.

Premier Oiwoh, managing director and CEO, Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS), announced this milestone at the launch of the Nigeria Payments System Vision (PSV) 2028 in Abuja.

According to Oiwoh, the National Payment Stack recently recorded its highest transaction volume during testing and is now awaiting final approval before it can be formally launched.

“We’ve started a control pilot transaction on the National Payment Stack. I’m very happy to announce that last night we had the highest level of transactions at 153,000 on the National Payment Stack. So, I’m awaiting the Governor’s nod to put it up formally,” he said.

According to him, the pilot exercise has already provided a strong indication of what the system can handle once it is fully deployed across the financial sector.

The project is part of the broader reforms under the Nigeria Payments System Vision 2028, introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to modernise payment services and strengthen the country’s digital economy.

At the Abuja event, stakeholders stressed that building the technology alone will not guarantee success.

They said the real challenge lies in how effectively the system is implemented, how affordable it becomes for users, and how far it reaches people who are still outside formal banking services.

Oiwoh noted that the human and operational side of the reform is just as important as the technical design.

“In reality, technology is only a fraction of what determines success. The bigger part is execution. Without proper implementation, even the best system will not achieve its purpose. A significant number of Nigerians are still not part of the formal financial system,” he said.

He also expressed support for a pricing structure that would make digital payments cheaper or even free, arguing that reducing transaction costs could encourage wider participation in electronic banking and fintech services.

“I personally believe transfer charges should be eliminated or reduced to zero on financial applications. Payment services should be accessible without fees where possible,” he said.

The NPS is expected to significantly improve how financial transactions are processed in Nigeria by allowing different financial institutions to communicate and settle payments more seamlessly.

This interoperability is expected to reduce delays, lower friction in transactions, and improve the overall customer experience.

It is also expected to enhance transaction speed and strengthen the reliability of digital payments, particularly as more Nigerians continue to shift toward cashless and mobile-based financial services.

Industry players at the event said the pilot results demonstrate that the system is capable of handling large volumes of transactions and can be scaled up without major disruptions when fully launched.

They added that the platform could support innovation in the financial sector by creating a more connected and efficient payment environment for businesses, startups, and consumers.

However, discussions at the event also reflected concerns about cost and sustainability.

While there is growing pressure to reduce transaction fees, operators warned that pricing must still allow payment service providers to remain viable in the long term.

 

 


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