E-Financial
Nigeria’s “Era of Renewed Stability” and the Truths the CBN Chooses to Overlook
By Blaise Udunze
At the Annual Bankers’ Dinner, when the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, recently stated that Nigeria had “turned a decisive corner,” his remark aimed to convey assurance that inflation was decelerating with headline inflation eased to 16.05percent and food inflation retreating to 13.12 percent, the exchange rate was stabilizing, and foreign reserves ($46.7 billion) had climbed to a seven-year peak. However, beneath this announcement, a grimmer and conflicting economic situation challenges households, businesses, and investors daily.
CBN
Stability is not announced; it is felt. For millions of Nigerians, however, what they are facing instead are increasing difficulties, declining abilities, diminished buying power, and susceptibilities that dispute any assertion of a steady macroeconomic path.
The 303rd MPC gathering was the most significant in recent times, revealing policies and statements that prompt more questions than clarifications. It highlighted an economy striving to appear stable, in theory, while the actual sector struggles to breathe.
This narrative explores why Cardoso’s assertion of “restored stability” is based on a delicate and partial foundation, and why Nigeria continues to be distant from attaining economic robustness.
Manufacturing: The Core of Genuine Stability Remains Struggling to Survive
A strong economy is characterized by growth in production, increased investment, and competitive industries. Nigeria lacks all of these elements.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) expressed this clearly in its response to the MPC’s choice to keep the Monetary Policy Rate at 27 percent. MAN stated that elevated interest rates are now” hindering production, deterring investment, and weakening competitiveness.
Producers are presently taking loans at rates between 30-37 percent, an environment that renders growth unfeasible and survival challenging. MAN’s Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, emphasized that although stable exchange rates matter, no genuine industry can endure borrowing expenses to those charged by loan sharks.
The CBN’s choice to maintain elevated interest rates is based on drawing foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to support the naira’s stability. However, FPIs are well-known for being short-term, speculative, and reactive to disturbances. They do not signify long-term stability. Do they represent genuine economic development?
Genuine stability demands assurance, in manufacturing beyond financial tightening. Manufacturers are expressing, clearly and persistently, that no progress has been made.
Oil Output and Revenue: The Engine Behind Nigeria’s Stability Is Misfiring
Nigeria’s oil sector, which is the backbone of its fiscal stability, is underperforming. The 2025 budget presumed:
· $75 per barrel oil price
· 2.06 million barrels per day production
Both objectives have fallen apart. Brent crude lingers near $62.56 under the benchmark. Contrary to the usual explanations, experts attribute the decline not mainly to external shocks but to poor reservoir management, outdated models, weak oversight, and delayed technical decisions.
Engineer Charles Deigh, a regarded expert in reservoir engineering, clearly expressed that Nigeria is experiencing production losses due to inadequate well monitoring, obsolete reservoir models, and technical choices lacking fundamental engineering precision. These shortcomings result directly in decreased revenue. By September 2025:
– Nigeria had accumulated N62.15 trillion from oil revenue
– instead of the N84.67 trillion budgeted.
– In September, the Federal Inland Revenue Service reported a startling 49.60 percent deficit in revenue from oil taxes.
A nation falling short of its main revenue goals by 50 percent cannot assert stability. Instead, it will take loans. Nigeria has taken loans.
A Stability Built on Debt, Not Productivity
Nigeria is now Africa’s largest borrower, and the world’s third-biggest borrower from the World Bank’s IDA, with $18.5 billion in commitments. By mid-2025, the total public debt amounts to N152.4 trillion, marking a 348.6 percent rise since 2023.
From July to October 2025, the government secured contracts for: $24.79 billion, €4 billion, ¥15 billion, N757 billion, and $500 million Sukuk loans. Nevertheless, in spite of these acquisitions, infrastructure continues to be manufacturing remains limited, and social welfare is still insufficient.
Uche Uwaleke, a finance and capital markets professor, cautions that Nigeria’s debt service ratio is “detrimental to growth.” Currently, the government spends one out of every four naira it earns on servicing debts. Taking on debt is not harmful in itself, provided it finances projects that pay for themselves. In Nigeria, it supports subsistence. A country funding today, through the labour of the future, cannot assert restored stability.
The Naira: A Currency Supported by Fragile Pillars
The CBN contends that elevated interest rates and enhanced market confidence have contributed to the naira’s stabilisation. However, this steadiness is based on grounds that cannot endure even the slightest global disturbance. The pillars of a stable currency are:
– Rising domestic production
– Expanding exports
– Reliable energy supply
– Strong security
– A thriving manufacturing base
None of these is Nigeria’s current reality. What Nigeria actually receives is capital from portfolio investors, and past events (2014, 2018, 2020, 2022) have demonstrated how rapidly these funds disappear.
Unemployment: “Stable” Figures Mask a Rising Youth Crisis
The CBN touts a reported unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. However, the International Labour Organisation (ILO), along with economists, cautions that the approach conceals more serious issues in the labour market.
Youth joblessness has increased to 6.5 percent, and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group cautions that Nigeria needs to generate 27 million formal employment opportunities by 2030 or else confront a disastrous labour crisis. The employment crisis is a ticking time bomb. A country cannot maintain stability when its youth are inactive, disheartened, and financially marginalized.
FDI Continues to Lag Despite CBN’s Positive Outlook
During the 2025 Nigerian Economic Summit, NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf stated that Nigeria’s efforts to attract direct investment (FDI) continue to be sluggish despite the implementation of reforms. FDI genuinely reflects investor trust, not portfolio inflows. FDI signifies enduring dedication, manufacturing plants, employment, and generating value. Nigeria does not have any of this as of now. An economy unable to draw long-term investments lacks stability.
139 Million Nigerians in Poverty: What Stability?
The recent development report from the World Bank estimates that 139 million Nigerians are living in poverty, and more than half of the population faces daily struggles. This is not stability. It is a humanitarian and economic crisis.
Food inflation continues to stay structurally high. The cost of a food basket has risen five times since 2019. Low-income families currently allocate much, as 70 percent of their earnings to food. A government cannot claim stability when its citizens go hungry.
A Fragile, Failing Power Sector
The power sector, another cornerstone of economic stability, is failing. Over 90 million Nigerians are without access to electricity, which is one of the highest figures globally. Even homes linked to the grid get 6.6 hours of electricity daily. Companies allocate funds to generators rather than to technology, innovation, or growth. Nigeria has now emerged as the biggest importer of solar panels in Africa, not due to environmental goals but because the national power grid is unreliable.
A country cannot achieve stability if it is unable to supply electricity to its residences, industrial plants, or medical centers.
Insecurity: The Silent Pillar Undermining All Economic Policy
Banditry, terrorism, abduction, and militant attacks persist in agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, and investment. Nigeria forfeits $15 billion each year due to insecurity and resources that might have fueled industrial development.
Food price increases are mainly caused by instability, and farmers are unable to cultivate, gather, or deliver their products. Nevertheless, the MPC approaches inflation predominantly as an issue of policy. In a country where insecurity fundamentally hinders the economy tightening policy cannot ensure stability.
Inflation Figures Under Suspicion
Questions have also emerged regarding the reliability of inflation data. Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, an economist, affirmed that the CBN might not entirely rely on the NBS inflation figures, highlighting increasing apprehension. A sharp decrease to 16 percent inflation clashes with market conditions.
Families are facing the food costs in two decades. Costs, for transport, housing rent, education fees, and necessary items keep increasing. Food prices cannot decline when farmers are abandoning their farmlands and fleeing for safety. If inflation figures are manipulated or partial, the stability story based on them becomes deceptive. There is, quite frankly, a significant disconnect between governance and the lived experience of ordinary Nigerians.
Foreign Reserves: A Story of Headlines vs Reality
Even Nigeria’s celebrated foreign reserves require scrutiny. The CBN reported $46.7 billion in reserves. However, a closer examination shows:
– Net usable reserves are only $23.11 billion
– The remainder is connected to commitments, swaps, and debts
Gross reserves make the news. Net reserves protect the currency. The difference is too large to assert that the naira is stable.
Nigeria’s Economic Contradiction: Stability at the Top, Volatility at the Bottom
In reality, Nigeria is caught between official proclamations of stability and lived experiences of volatility. The disparity between the CBN’s account and the actual experiences of Nigerians highlights a reality:
– Macroeconomic changes have failed to convert into improvements in human well-being.
– Nigeria might appear stable officially. Its citizens are experiencing instability in truth.
– Taking on debt is increasing
– Poverty is worsening
– Manufacturing is contracting
– Jobs are scarce
– Authority is breaking down
– Feelings of insecurity are growing stronger
– Inflation is undermining dignity
– Companies are struggling to breathe
– Capital is escaping
– Misery, among humans, is expanding
A strong economy is one where advancement is experienced, not announced.
What Genuine Stability Demands
To move from paper stability to real stability, Nigeria must:
1. Support domestic production. Cut interest rates for manufacturers, reduce borrowing costs, and provide targeted credit.
2. Fix oil production technically. Revamp reservoir engineering, implement surveillance. Allocate resources to adequate technical oversight.
3. Prioritize security. Secure farmlands, highways, and industrial corridors.
4. Reform the power sector. Invest in grid reliability, renewable integration, and private-sector-led transmission.
5. Attract real FDI. Streamline rules, enhance the framework, and maintain consistent policy guidance.
6. Anchor debt on productive projects. Take loans exclusively for infrastructure projects that produce income.
7. Prioritize reforms in welfare. Adopt crisis-responsive, domestically funded safety nets.
8. Improve transparency. Ensure inflation, employment, and reserve data reflect reality.
Stability Is Not Given; It Has to Be Achieved
The CBN Governor’s statement of “renewed stability” is hopeful. It remains unproven. The inconsistencies are glaring, the statistics too. The real-world experiences are too harsh. Nigerians require outcomes, not slogans. Stability is gauged not through statements on policy but by whether:
– Manufacturing plants are creating (factories operate at full capacity),
– Food is affordable,
– Young people have jobs
– The naira is strong without artificial props,
– Electricity is reliable,
– Security is assured,
– Poverty rates are decreasing.
Unless these conditions are met, Nigeria is not experiencing a period of restored stability. Instead, it is going through a phase of recovery, one that will collapse if the actual economy keeps worsening while decision-makers prematurely applaud their successes. The CBN must rethink its approach. Nigeria needs productive stability, not statistical stability.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
Debt Management Office (DMO) said the federal government spent N3.14 trillion on servicing its domestic debt in the first quarter of 2026.
The office disclosed the data in its latest domestic debt service report for Q1 2026.
The figure comprises N2.97 trillion in interest payments and N169.68 billion in principal repayments.
The agency said in January, the government spent N741.82 billion on domestic debt service, while the figure rose to N967.67 billion in February.
Debt service increased further to N1.43 trillion in March, bringing the total for the quarter to N3.14 trillion.
The March figure was 47.7 percent higher than the N967.67 billion recorded in February and 92.7 percent above the N741.82 billion spent in January.
Also, the debt office said interest payments accounted for about 94.6 percent of total domestic debt service during the quarter.
The DMO said treasury bills accounted for the largest share of interest payments at N1 trillion, while interest on federal government bonds stood at N1.96 trillion.
The agency said the government also paid N4.24 billion in interest on FGN savings bonds during the period.
The DMO said the principal component of the debt service comprised N169.68 billion in repayments on local-denominated promissory notes.
Overall, the government’s domestic debt service rose sharply through the quarter, with March accounting for almost half of the N3.14 trillion spent between January and March.
Nigeria’s public debt increased by 0.01 percent to N159.35 trillion in the Q1 of 2026.
Interswitch Group, an integrated digital payments and commerce company, together with global banking software provider, Temenos have reassured the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) of their commitment to advancing the modernisation of Nigeria’s financial services sector.
Interswitch and Temenos had earlier in June announced a strategic partnership across Africa which would see Interswitch leverage Temenos solutions – across core banking, digital banking, payments, wealth management and financial crime mitigation – to provide cloud-hosted and on-premises managed services to banks and financial institutions across Africa.
This will enable institutions to progressively transform their banking platform and evolve to more customer-centric business models. The service will initially support key African markets including Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya and others.
The recent regulatory visit to CBN headquarters in Abuja, was led by the Founder and Group Chief Executive Officer of Interswitch, Mitchell Elegbe, and Managing Director for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) at Temenos, Santhosh Rao, as part of the ongoing efforts by both organisations to deepen collaboration with Central Banks across the African region on the future of digital banking infrastructure across Nigeria and key African markets.
Discussions centred on the strategic partnership between Interswitch and Temenos, and how it will enable Nigerian financial institutions to progressively modernise their core banking platforms and transition to more customer-centric business models.
The two organisations also explored opportunities to work with the CBN in charting new frontiers in Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) innovation, leveraging resilient financial networks and decentralised application platforms to support the issuance and management of CBDCs.
Commenting on the visit, Elegbesaid: “Our partnership as Interswitch with Temenos and our continued engagement with the Central Bank of Nigeria reflect a shared commitment to building banking infrastructure that is resilient, inclusive, and ready for the next phase of Africa’s financial evolution.
We are proud to be at the table as these conversations shape the future of digital banking technology and innovation across key Africa markets…”
The Bank of Industry, through BOI Financing SPV Plc, has opened subscriptions for its inaugural Series 1 Fixed Rate Bond worth up to N250bn under its $1bn multi-currency instruments programme, seeking to raise long-term capital to finance businesses across Nigeria’s priority sectors.
The offer, which opened on 5 August and closes on 11 August, is being arranged by Chapel Hill Denham as the lead issuing house. The five-year bond is priced within a yield range of 17.35 per cent to 17.50 per cent and will be listed on the FMDQ Securities Exchange.
According to the offer document, proceeds from the issuance will be deployed to finance eligible businesses and projects across sectors, including agriculture and food processing, healthcare, engineering and technology, renewable energy, petrochemicals, oil and gas, creative industries and solid minerals, in line with BOI’s development finance mandate.
The lender said the financing is expected to improve access to medium and long-term funding for Nigerian enterprises, expand productive capacity, create and preserve jobs, deepen local value addition, support import substitution, boost exports and strengthen domestic value chains.
BOI, Nigeria’s foremost development finance institution, said it has provided funding to more than one million businesses across the country and disbursed over N1.27tn between 2023 and 2025. The institution operates across 34 states and the Federal Capital Territory and is jointly owned by the Ministry of Finance Incorporated and the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The bank also highlighted its financial performance, reporting a 36 per cent compound annual growth rate in gross earnings between 2021 and 2025.
Interest income rose 64 per cent to N884bn in 2025 from N538bn in the previous year, while its capital adequacy ratio stood at 39 per cent, nearly four times the regulatory minimum of 10 per cent. Its non-performing loan ratio was 1.7 per cent, below the CBN’s prudential limit of five per cent.
The bond has been assigned AAA ratings by Agusto & Co. and Intelligence Africa, reflecting the issuer’s strong capitalization, profitability, liquidity and ownership structure.
The issuance is open to institutional and qualified investors with a minimum subscription of N5m and additional investments in multiples of N1m. Interest will be paid semi-annually at a fixed rate, while principal repayment will begin in the third year through equal semi-annual amortised instalments until maturity in 2031.
The bond is also exempt from tax, making it an attractive investment option for investors seeking stable returns amid expectations of declining interest rates.
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