E-Financial
Refining Without Relief: How Global Oil Wars, Market Structure, and Monopoly Risks Still Drive Fuel Prices in Nigeria
By Blaise Udunze
The vision was bold. The expectation was clear. And the promise was powerful. When the Dangote Refinery began operations, it was hailed as Nigeria’s long-awaited escape from decades of energy contradiction, which involves exporting crude oil while importing refined fuel at high costs. It was meant to guarantee supply, stabilize prices, conserve foreign exchange, and most importantly, deliver relief to ordinary Nigerians.
What appears to be a distinct contradiction is that, despite months into its operation, a different reality is emerging, with fuel prices rising sharply. Inflationary pressures are intensifying. This occurrence has forced Nigerians to ask a difficult question once again, one that calls for an urgent answer. Why does a country that produces and refines crude oil still suffer the consequences of global oil shocks?
Looking at the trend, it is clear that the answer lies not just in geopolitics, but in the deeper structure of Nigeria’s oil economy, where global pricing, policy gaps, and now the looming risk of monopoly intersect.
With the recent development, the latest alarming surge in petrol prices has been driven largely by escalating tensions in the Middle East. This is particularly the U.S-Israel strikes on Iran and retaliatory measures from Tehran. A well-known fact is that at the center of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit route through which a significant portion of global supply flows. Any disruption, even a speculative one, triggers immediate spikes in crude prices.
Within a week, oil prices jumped from the mid-$60 range to nearly $120 per barrel. For global markets, this is expected. For Nigeria, it is devastatingly ironic. Because, despite having crude oil in abundance and despite refining it locally, Nigeria remains fully exposed and this has continued to re-echo the same ironic question.
In a rare moment of corporate candor, the refinery’s leadership acknowledged this reality. The plant is deeply affected by global shocks. Crude oil, even when sourced locally, is priced at international benchmarks. Shipping costs have surged dramatically, from about $800,000 per tanker to as high as $3.5 million. Insurance premiums have climbed, and logistics have become significantly more expensive, with total costs further driving higher.
Even more revealing is the refinery’s sourcing structure. Only about 30 percent – 35 percent of crude comes from the Nigerian government supply under the crude-for-naira framework. A significant portion is still purchased in U.S. dollars on the open market, while another 30 percent – 40 percent is sourced internationally, including from the United States and other regions. This means the refinery is not insulated; it is integrated into the global oil system. The implication is unavoidable as local refining has not translated into local pricing control.
The impact on Nigerians has been immediate and severe, as petrol prices have surged from under N800 earlier in the year to over N1,200, and in some regions, it is even more alarming when the prices skyrocketed close to N1,400 per litre. Within weeks, multiple price increases have been recorded, driven largely by global crude price spikes and rising logistics costs. Doubtless, the country has witnessed the consequences ripple across the economy as transport fares rise, food prices increase, businesses struggle with higher operating costs, and inflation accelerates.
The development has attracted the attention of the labour unions and the organised private sector, prompting them to raise concerns and alarm about the consequences of job losses, business closures, and worsening hardship if the trend continues with each passing day, witnessing a daily increase and causing possible artificial scarcity.
Nigeria remains trapped in a painful contradiction. It produces crude oil. It refines crude oil. Yet it cannot protect its citizens from global oil volatility. As Aliko Dangote himself acknowledged, Nigeria has no direct role in the conflict driving these price increases, yet it bears the consequences due to global economic interdependence.
In a real sense, this is the deeper tragedy, as Nigeria has achieved capacity without control.
At the heart of the issue is a structural reality, crude oil is priced globally, not locally. Even under the crude-for-naira arrangement, pricing is benchmarked against international rates. This means refineries pay global crude prices, fuel prices reflect global market conditions, and domestic consumers absorb international shocks. In essence, Nigeria has moved refining home without bringing pricing sovereignty with it.
To be fair, the Dangote Refinery has played a stabilizing role. Nigeria still enjoys relatively lower petrol prices compared to many global markets. In several countries, supply disruptions have led to panic buying and rationing, while Nigeria has maintained a consistent supply. As the refinery’s CEO aptly noted, what is worse than $120 oil is no oil. The refinery has prevented scarcity, but it has not prevented high prices. Availability, in this case, has not equated to affordability, which is the painful part for the citizens.
While much of the current debate focuses on pricing, another critical issue is quietly taking shape, which is the risk of market concentration. Dangote Refinery deserves credit for its scale and ambition, but scale brings power, and power demands oversight. If fuel importers are gradually pushed out and no competing refineries emerge at scale, Nigeria could find itself transitioning from a public sector monopoly to a private sector dominance led by a single player.
Nigeria has seen this pattern before. In the cement industry, increased domestic production did not necessarily translate into lower prices. Limited competition allowed prices to remain elevated despite local capacity. The same risk now looms in the downstream oil sector. Without competition, price-setting power becomes concentrated, supply risks increase, and consumer protection weakens. In a country with fragile regulatory institutions, this is not a theoretical concern; it is a real and present danger.
No one should perceive this wrongly, because it is important, however, not to misplace blame. It should be made known that the Dangote Refinery is not a charity; it is a private enterprise operating within market realities. It must recover its investment, manage costs, and deliver returns. Its exposure to global pricing is not a failure of intent but a function of the system within which it operates.
The real issue lies in the structure of the market and the absence of sufficient competition.
It is no longer news that Nigeria’s downstream sector is now largely deregulated following the removal of fuel subsidies. While deregulation has reduced government fiscal burden and encouraged private investment, it has also exposed consumers to price volatility and limited the scope for intervention, as this has continued to cause pain. Markets, in theory, deliver efficiency, but in practice, they require competition and effective regulation to function properly. Without these, deregulation can simply replace one form of inefficiency with another.
Nigeria does not need to weaken Dangote Refinery; it needs to multiply it. The goal should be to build a competitive refining ecosystem to replace one dominant structure with another. The truth is not far from this, as part of a lasting solution, it requires encouraging new refinery investments, removing bottlenecks for players such as BUA and modular refineries, ensuring transparent crude allocation, providing open access to pipelines and storage infrastructure, and enforcing strong antitrust regulations.
Competition remains the most effective regulator of price, which is sacrosanct and it protects consumers, strengthens supply security, and reduces systemic risk.
This must also be perceived beyond competition, which calls for the government to act strategically. The fact is that when supplying crude to local refineries at discounted or stabilized rates, expanding naira-based transactions, and introducing temporary relief measures during global crises are all viable options that must be put into consideration. Energy is too critical to be left entirely to market forces, especially in a developing economy where millions are highly vulnerable to economic shocks.
It is time that Nigerians understood that the nation’s refining crisis has been decades in the making, and it cannot be solved by a single refinery, no matter how large. If asked, it will be said that this is a fact that can’t be argued. The Dangote Refinery is undoubtedly a turning point, but it will only remain so if it is embedded within broader systemic reform. Otherwise, Nigeria risks replacing one form of dependency with another, from import dependence to domestic concentration.
The question is no longer whether Nigeria can refine crude oil. It can. The real question is whether Nigeria can build a system that ensures fair pricing, competitive markets, consumer protection, and economic resilience, as these are exactly the core answers.
If global conflicts continue to dictate local fuel prices, if monopoly risks go unchecked, and if citizens remain vulnerable despite abundant resources, then the promise of local refining will remain unfulfilled, as it will bring no expected relief.
What is playing out is the well-known fact that in refining, as in democracy, concentration of power is dangerous. And in both, the strongest safeguard remains the same, competition, transparency, and institutions that serve the public interest.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
Cybercriminals have developed a new Android malware that can turn victims smartphones into a bridge for stealing bank card information and carrying out contactless payment fraud, cybersecurity researchers have warned.
The malware, identified as WindRelay, operates in conjunction with a known remote-access trojan, SpyNote, to capture live information exchanged between a physical bank card and an Android phone via Near Field Communication (NFC).
NFC is the short-range technology that enables contactless payments when a bank card or smartphone is tapped against a payment terminal.
According to cybersecurity firm Group-IB, WindRelay was detected in the wild in August 2025 and has been used in a social-engineering scheme targeting victims in Czechia, Slovakia and Slovenia.
Meanwhile, the fraud begins with a phone call, text message or other communication in which criminals pretend to be bank officials.
The victim is persuaded to install an application, often personalised with the victim’s name, and once installed, SpyNote gives the criminal remote access to the phone and can silently install WindRelay, with the victim then tricked into placing a physical bank card against the infected smartphone, supposedly for identity verification, PIN change, or account resolution.
WindRelay reads the card’s NFC signals and sends the information in real time to another device controlled by the criminal, with such a device then imitating the victim’s card at a payment terminal or ATM, as the victim’s smartphone becomes a wireless bridge between the victim’s bank card and the criminal’s device.
Group-IB said it identified 23 WindRelay samples uploaded to VirusTotal between November 2025 and July 2026, with the malware samples impersonating financial institutions in Czechia, Slovakia and Slovenia.
Meanwhile, the development adds to existing concerns over the use of mobile devices in cybercrime and financial fraud in Nigeria.
In June, the Nigeria Computer Emergency Response Team (ngCERT) issued an advisory on IPIDEA malware and malicious residential proxy networks, warning that the malware could hijack consumers internet connections and use compromised devices as part of criminal proxy networks.
While the ngCERT advisory concerns a different malware and attack method, both incidents highlight a growing risk: ordinary smartphones and connected devices can be secretly turned into tools for cybercriminals.
This is particularly relevant as Nigerians increasingly rely on smartphones for mobile banking, digital payments and other financial services.
Consequently, cybersecurity experts have advised users not to install applications sent through unsolicited calls, text messages or links, especially when the sender claims to represent a bank, as users should also be suspicious of requests to place payment cards against smartphones for supposed account verification.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has cleared additional Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) for admission into its Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Programme (ARIP).
Among the newly cleared is BC Access Nigeria Limited (Blockchain), marking an important step in the company’s long-term commitment to Nigeria and its broader expansion across Africa.
Nigeria is one of Africa’s most important digital asset markets, where crypto increasingly plays a practical role in how people access, hold and move.
Value Admission into ARIP means Blockchain has satisfied the SEC’s initial requirements to participate in the programme and is authorised to operate within its defined sandbox scope, subject to the Commission’s ongoing compliance obligations, testing parameters, and regulatory conditions.
Through ARIP, Blockchain can work directly with the SEC as the Commission evaluates digital asset business models, tests. appropriate safeguards and develops its long-term regulatory framework for the market.
Speaking, General Manager for Africa, Blockchain, Owen Odia, said: “Nigeria is one of Africa’s most important digital asset markets and participating in the SEC’s ARIP is an important step forward in our long-term commitment to the country.
“The programme gives us the opportunity to work directly with the SEC in a controlled environment, bring our global experience to the Nigerian market and help support a framework that protects consumers while enabling responsible innovation. We appreciate the SEC’s proactive approach and look forward to contributing to a safe, transparent and well-regulated digital asset ecosystem.”
Blockchain’s participation in ARIP forms part of a broader global strategy to engage constructively with regulators and build within established regulatory frameworks.
Over the past year, Blockchain has secured several formal licenses and registrations globally, including the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), EU Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA), and Cayman Islands Monetary Authority (CIMA) Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) License. Participating in Nigeria’s ARIP sandbox builds on that experience, bringing global standards in compliance, security and consumer protection to its local operations.
For Blockchain, ARIP provides a structured environment to test services for the Nigerian market, strengthen consumer protections and work directly with regulators and local stakeholders.
The company sees Nigeria as an important market in its African strategy, with strong existing demand for digital assets and an increasingly clear regulatory pathway for responsible operators. The company’s strategy materials specifically identify Nigeria as an important market for its African expansion.
ARIP was established by Nigeria’s SEC as a controlled regulatory sandbox for VASPs and fintech innovators. The programme allows the SEC to observe live applications of digital asset technologies, study operational risks, and establish tailored investor protection and anti-money laundering (AML) standards before final regulatory rules are codified.
Blockchain is pleased to participate in ARIP as we work alongside regulators to support responsible innovation, consumer protection and market integrity.
Founded in 2011, Blockchain is one of the world’s longest-standing digital asset companies with more than 95 million wallets, more than 44 million confirmed accounts and over $1.2 trillion processed.
Leadway Assurance has unveiled the Leadway Lifetime Plan, a one-of-a-kind whole-of-life insurance solution designed to extend financial protection beyond the immediate household to the wider family circle.
The newly introduced plan unveiled at a press briefing in Lagos reinforces Leadway’s commitment to building lasting financial security, preserving wealth, and delivering meaningful, long-term protection for the people who matter most.
The Leadway Lifetime Plan responds to the increasingly complex financial responsibilities faced by many working adults, particularly members of the Sandwich Generation individuals who simultaneously provide financial support for ageing parents while raising children and planning for their future.
With family responsibilities now extending beyond the traditional nuclear household, the Leadway Lifetime Plan is designed to offer broader, long-term protection that reflects the realities of modern Nigerian families.
Speaking on the new insurance plan, Olufunmilayo Amanwa, executive director, Technical & Operations, Leadway Assurance, said the product reflects the insurer’s recognition that family structures and financial responsibilities are evolving, and that insurance solutions must evolve with them.
“Financial responsibility no longer stops at the nuclear family. Today, one individual may be supporting children, a spouse, ageing parents, and in some cases, parents-in-law or siblings, all at once. That reality demands a different approach to protection.
The Leadway Lifetime Plan was built around this reality. It gives customers a way to extend continuous protection to the extended family, ensuring the people who depend on them are covered, while also delivering meaningful benefits to policyholders within their own lifetime. This is the Leadway way, designing solutions that respond to how people actually live, not recycling old products with new names”
Beyond traditional life protection, the Leadway Lifetime Plan incorporates a range of living benefits designed to provide financial support during critical stages of life.
Following five years of complete premium payment and subject to the policy terms, the policyholder and spouse may access up to 50 per cent of their current sum assured upon diagnosis of a covered critical illness. This benefit can provide valuable financial support at a time when a serious health event may place pressure on income, savings and overall household stability.
The plan also provides greater long-term financial flexibility. Eligible policyholders may access up to 50 per cent of the policy value for significant life goals after the premium payment term plus five years, subject to applicable policy conditions.
While Leadway’s existing Family Benefit Plan provides family-focused whole-life protection, the Lifetime Plan has been developed as a more expansive, multi-generational solution that combines lifelong protection with financial value that can be accessed during the policyholder’s lifetime.
Explaining the thinking behind the product, Rosetta Aryeetey, head, Life Underwriting and Life Business, Leadway Assurance said the solution was developed around the changing needs of customers. “The starting point for the Leadway Lifetime Plan was the customer.
We looked closely at how families are structured Today, how financial responsibilities are shared and the challenges customers face when they are responsible for several generations at the same time. What emerged was a need for a solution that does more than pay a benefit after death. Customers need protection for the people who depend on them, but they also need support when critical life events occur and flexibility as their financial priorities evolve.”
She added that the combination of multi-life protection, living benefits, long-term value and flexibility makes the Lifetime Plan relevant across different stages of a customer’s financial journey.
The plan also offers flexibility to enhance financial protection over time through an Escalation of Sum Assured feature. This allows customers to increase their benefits by a fixed percentage, giving them the flexibility to align their level of protection with their evolving financial needs and circumstances.
With the launch, Leadway Assurance is reinforcing its commitment to developing insurance solutions that respond to real-life needs while helping families build resilience, preserve financial stability and create lasting legacies.
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